Group 1: Liquidity and Performance of Sci-Tech Chip ETF - The Sci-Tech Chip ETF had an intraday turnover of 1.56%, with a transaction volume of 388 million yuan [2] - Over the past year, the average daily transaction volume of the Sci-Tech Chip ETF reached 2.224 billion yuan, ranking first among comparable funds [2] - In the last three months, the Sci-Tech Chip ETF's scale increased by 6.096 billion yuan, achieving significant growth and ranking first in new scale among comparable funds [2] - The ETF's share increased by 36 million shares in the past week, also ranking first in new shares among comparable funds [2] - In the last five trading days, there were net inflows on three days, totaling 64.9 million yuan, indicating continued interest from leveraged funds [2] - The net purchase amount of financing for the ETF this month reached 5.5378 million yuan, with the latest financing balance at 1.407 billion yuan [2] Group 2: Market Trends and Predictions - On May 20, Xiaomi's chairman Lei Jun announced that the Xiaomi self-developed 3nm flagship chip, Xiaomi Xuanjie O1, has begun mass production [3] - TrendForce predicts that by 2025, the proportion of purchased Nvidia/AMD chips for AI servers in China will decrease from 63% in 2024 to 42%, while domestic chip supply is expected to rise to 40% due to policy support [3] - Domestic manufacturers are accelerating their rise, seizing market share with the support of policies, which is expected to drive explosive growth in China's intelligent computing centers [3] - CITIC Securities suggests focusing on four key areas for medium to long-term investment: wafer foundry, computing chip design, domestic equipment and components, and advanced packaging [3] - Investors without stock accounts can access domestic chip investment opportunities through the Sci-Tech Chip ETF linked fund (017470) [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a Neutral rating to Inventec with a 12-month price target of NT$45, down from a previous target of NT$50 [7]. Core Insights - Inventec reported Q125 earnings with sales of NT$157.0 billion, reflecting a 21% decrease QoQ but a 20% increase YoY. The sales mix shifted to 49% notebooks and 48% servers, with AI servers constituting 50% of server sales [2][12]. - The company anticipates a 10% QoQ increase in Q225 sales to NT$173.0 billion, driven by strong demand for Blackwell HGX servers, although a stronger NT$ may dampen growth [3]. - Growth expectations for 2025 have been trimmed from 4% YoY to 2% YoY, influenced by flat demand in the second half and tariff impacts [4][19]. Financial Performance - For 2025, the expected EPS is NT$2.57, below the street estimate of NT$2.63, with a price target reduction reflecting a valuation of 16x 2026 EPS [5][27]. - The company's revenue projections show a gradual increase, with expected revenues of NT$663.8 billion in 2025 and NT$726.0 billion in 2026 [6][20]. Market Position and Valuation - Inventec is trading at a premium valuation of 17x/15x 2025-26 P/E, higher than its peers, indicating that the market has largely priced in growth expectations [10][27]. - The company has a solid market share in general servers and AI server motherboards, but may lag behind competitors like HonHai and Quanta in ramping up production [5][10]. Cash Flow and Dividends - The report indicates that Inventec's cash flows have been affected by cyclical earnings in PCs, but a return to positive free cash flow is projected in the coming years [21]. - A cash dividend of NT$1.70 has been declared, yielding approximately 4% at current levels, reflecting a high payout rate [21].

Core Insights - HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) is a crucial technology for AI servers and is expected to be widely adopted in the autonomous driving market in the future [1] - China's HBM industry is developing, with HBM2 and HBM2E currently in mass production, and HBM3 and HBM3E expected to achieve breakthroughs by 2026E/2027E [1] - SK Hynix is the global leader in the HBM market, holding a 55% market share, followed by Samsung at 41% and Micron at 3% [1] Group 1 - SK Hynix launched the world's first TSV-based HBM product in 2013 and has since introduced several generations of HBM products, including HBM2, HBM2E, and HBM3 [1] - In April 2023, SK Hynix completed functionality verification of a 12-layer HBM3 product (24 GB), and in August 2023, it launched the high-performance 8-layer HBM3E product [1] - The company plans to start mass production of the 12-layer HBM3E product (36 GB) in October 2024 and is developing a 16-layer HBM3E product with a capacity of 48 GB [1] Group 2 - SK Hynix's HBM stacking technology has evolved from TC-NCF and MR-MUF to Advanced MR-MUF, with significant developments in wafer-level packaging (WLP) and TSV technology since around 2000 [2] - The 12-layer HBM3 and HBM3E products utilize Advanced MR-MUF technology, and the upcoming 16-layer HBM3E product will also employ this technology [2] Group 3 - Both Samsung and SK Hynix have established their own HBM supply chains, with Samsung relying on Japanese and Korean equipment suppliers, while SK Hynix partners with HANMI Semiconductor and others [3] - HANMI Semiconductor holds approximately 65% of the global TCBonder market and nearly 90% in the HBM3E TCBonder sector, indicating a strong position in the supply chain [3]

Core Insights - The MLCC supply-demand rhythm is disrupted in the first half of 2025, with increased risks of a "weak peak season" in the second half due to rising caution and wait-and-see attitudes among companies and end markets [1] - OEMs and ODMs have moved North American Chromebook and some consumer laptop orders to the first quarter, leading to unexpectedly weak stocking momentum for the traditional education laptop peak season starting in April [1] - The average forecast order volume for Dell and HP education laptops from MLCC suppliers is expected to decrease by 20% to 25% in the second quarter [1] Group 1: Market Demand and Supply Challenges - The decline in end-market demand and soaring sales costs present two major challenges for MLCC suppliers, including the risk of OEMs reducing orders and potential price reductions [2] - The Japanese yen has become a favored safe-haven currency, appreciating from 150 to 141 yen against the dollar since April, impacting MLCC pricing [2] - Current pricing for mid-capacity and automotive-grade MLCC products is below the levels seen in Q4 2019, indicating a significant market shift [2] Group 2: AI Server Segment - The order and material preparation momentum for AI servers remains robust, with ODMs in Mexico benefiting from the USMCA agreement, allowing for normal shipments [1] - However, future international situation changes could still pose risks to this segment [1] - High-end standard products commonly used in AI servers have seen significant profit declines due to competitive bidding in 2024, leading to low visibility in end-order demand [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the anticipated trends in the DRAM market for Q1 and Q2 of 2025, highlighting price adjustments and supply chain dynamics influenced by international conditions and demand shifts across various sectors [1][4][5]. Summary by Sections DRAM Price Trends - In Q1 2025, prices for various DRAM types are expected to decline significantly, with Conventional DRAM projected to drop by 8% to 13%. For Q2 2025, the decline is expected to narrow to 0% to 5% for Conventional DRAM, while HBM prices are anticipated to increase by 3% to 8% due to the ramp-up of HBM3e 12hi [2][4]. Supply Chain Dynamics - Major PC OEMs are increasing assembly volumes to reduce DRAM inventory levels. This is expected to lead to higher procurement from DRAM manufacturers in Q2 2025, particularly for those with low inventory levels [4][5]. - Samsung's HBM product certification is lagging, while SK hynix is focusing on Server and Mobile DRAM production, limiting the supply of PC DDR5 [4][5]. Mobile and Graphics DRAM - Mobile DRAM prices are expected to stabilize or increase slightly due to rising demand from high-end smartphones and other sectors. LPDDR5X is projected to see a price increase of 0% to 5%, while LPDDR4X may decline by 0% to 5% [6][7]. - Graphics DRAM demand is shifting towards GDDR7, with GDDR6 prices expected to decline by 3% to 8% due to increased demand from new models [6][7]. Consumer DRAM Outlook - The demand for Consumer DRAM is expected to gradually increase due to new projects like 4G/5G base station expansions. DDR4 prices are projected to rise by 0% to 5% in Q2 2025, while DDR3 prices are expected to remain stable [7].

集邦咨询：英伟达(NVDA.US)GB300芯片多项设计 规格将提升 预估3Q25后整柜系统将逐步扩大出货 规模 在TDP(热设计功耗)部分，2024年NVIDIA主流机种为HGX AI Server，TDP落在60KW与80KW间，目前 主推的GB200 NVL72机柜因运算密度大幅提升，每柜TDP达125KW至130KW。TrendForce集邦咨询预 估，GB300机柜系统功耗将再提升至135KW与140KW间，多数业者将持续采用Liquid-to-Air(液冷散热) 方式，确保散热效果。 至于散热零部件设计，目前GB200的Cold Plate(水冷板)是搭配一颗CPU和两颗GPU的整合模块型态，到 GB300将由整合模块改为各芯片独立搭载Cold Plate，将提高Cold Plate在Compute Tray(运算匣)的价值。 而QD(水冷快接头)部分，由于Cold Plate模块改为各自独立，将大量增加QD用量。而GB200的QD供应 商以欧美业者为主，预期至GB300后将有更多厂商加入供应行列。 TrendForce集邦咨询指出，预期今年GB200和GB300 Rack方案放量情形将受几项因素 ...

Core Insights - NVIDIA is expected to launch the GB300 chip ahead of schedule in Q2 2025, with improvements in computing performance, memory capacity, network connectivity, and power management compared to the GB200 chip [1] - The GB300 chip and Compute Tray are projected to begin production in May 2025, with ODMs starting initial engineering sample designs [1] - The demand for specialized products in the Chinese market has significantly increased due to the DeepSeek effect [1] Summary by Sections GB300 Specifications - The GB300 NVL72 features upgraded networking specifications to meet higher bandwidth requirements, enhancing overall computing performance [2] - The TDP for the GB300 system is expected to rise to between 135KW and 140KW, with most manufacturers continuing to use liquid cooling methods to ensure effective heat dissipation [2] Cooling Component Design - The cooling plate design for the GB300 will shift from an integrated module to individual chip installations, increasing the value of the cooling plates in the Compute Tray [3] - The change in design will lead to a significant increase in the usage of quick disconnects (QDs), with more suppliers expected to join the market for GB300 [3] Market Dynamics - The GB200 and GB300 Rack solutions' market performance will be influenced by several factors, including the ongoing impact of the DeepSeek effect and potential shifts in customer preferences towards self-developed ASICs or simpler, cost-effective AI server solutions [3]

半导体公众号推荐 半导体论坛百万微信群 国芯网[原:中国半导体论坛] 振兴国产半导体产业！ 不拘中国、 放眼世界 ！ 关注 世界半导体论坛 ↓ ↓ ↓ 3月12日消息，近日TrendForce集邦咨询发布的研报显示，2024年第四季度，前十大晶圆代工厂合计营 收季增近10%，达384.8亿美元，再创新高。 TrendForce集邦咨询发布的报告称，2024年第四季全球晶圆代工产业呈两极化发展，先进制程受惠于AI Server等新兴应用增长，以及新款旗舰级智能手机AP和PC新平台备货周期延续，带动高价晶圆出货增 长，抵销成熟制程需求趋缓带来的冲击。 其中，受惠于智能手机、HPC新品出货动能延续，营收成长至268.5亿美元，增幅14.1%，以市占率67% 稳居龙头。 三星排名第二，2024年第四季营收下滑1.4%，为32.6亿美元，市占8.1%。 受客户库存调节影响，晶圆出货呈现季减，但受益于于十二英寸新增产能，优化产品组合带动ASP季 增，两者相抵后，营收季增1.7%至22亿美元，市占5.5%，居第三名。 此外，、格罗方德、华虹集团、高塔半导体、世界先进、合肥晶合、力积电分列前十位。 ************* ...