Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry is experiencing significant developments, including Huawei's return of the Kirin chip after five years, which indicates progress in self-sufficiency in chip packaging, manufacturing, and design [1]. Group 1 - Huawei's Kirin chip is officially returning, marking a major milestone in achieving self-control in the semiconductor sector [1]. - The U.S. plans to impose tariffs on semiconductors next week, which may positively impact domestic alternatives and self-sufficiency in the semiconductor industry [1]. - The central bank's commitment to implementing a moderately loose monetary policy raises speculation about potential interest rate cuts, which is viewed as favorable for the industry [1].

Core Viewpoint - Xi'an Yiswei Materials Technology Co., Ltd. has received approval for its IPO on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, marking it as the first unprofitable company accepted by the Shanghai Stock Exchange after the implementation of new policies. The company is the largest 12-inch silicon wafer manufacturer in mainland China, with significant growth potential in the semiconductor industry [2]. Group 1 - Xi'an Yiswei was established in 2016 and focuses on the research and production of 12-inch silicon wafers, holding a market share of 6-7% globally, ranking sixth in the world [2]. - The company has developed five core process systems, with products serving international clients such as Samsung and SK Hynix, covering storage and logic chip sectors [2]. - The projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for revenue from 2022 to 2024 is 41.83%, despite a cumulative loss of 1.728 billion yuan due to high depreciation from heavy asset investments [2]. Group 2 - The company plans to raise 4.9 billion yuan for capacity expansion, aiming to reach a production capacity of 1.2 million wafers per month by 2026, which would meet 40% of mainland China's demand [2]. - Regulatory authorities are concerned about the stability of the company's control and its profitability outlook. The listing highlights the capital market's acceptance of "hard technology" and the need for the company to overcome profitability challenges in an oligopolistic market [2].

股 票 研 究 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.08.08 晶圆代工行业龙头 25Q2 毛利率优于指引上限 [Table_Industry] 半导体 中芯国际及华虹半导体发布 25Q2 业绩 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 舒迪(分析师) | 021-38676666 | shudi@gtht.com | S0880521070002 | | 吴小沛(研究助理) | 021-23187269 | wuxiaopei@gtht.com | S0880125042240 | 本报告导读： 我们认为在工业及汽车需求修复下，晶圆代工产能利用率有望持续改善，叠加在 地化生产趋势确立，头部 Fab 有望实现业绩增长。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 半导体《AI 发展潜力大，半导体自主可控是关 键》2025.07.24 半导体《景气提升，关注晶圆代工产能扩张及先 进封装稀缺性》2025.07.21 半导体《沐曦股份及摩尔线程科创板 IPO 受理》 2025.07.04 半导体《设置科创 ...

半导体板块走强，能否走出阶段行情？中国银河证券财富星首席投资顾问高乐认为，滞涨补涨紧盯业 绩，半导体自主可控迭代升级；五矿证券投资顾问梁承伟认为，特朗普关税搅动半导体市场；申万宏源 理财研究首席分析师蒋亦凡认为，半导体业绩和催化剂双轮驱动，继续看好。（第一财经） ...

基本面上，业绩为王！细分方向迎"喜报潮"，电子板块情绪高涨！截至8月3日，中证有色金属指数覆盖的50家上市公司中，已有17家披露2025年中报业绩预 告，其中16家预告盈利，占比超九成；15家预告净利润同比正增长，6家预告净利润预计翻倍增长，士兰微归母净利最高同比预增1203%，闻泰科技归母净 利最高同比预增317%，暂居前二。 | 序号 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 预告净利润下限 | 预告净利润上限 | | 预告净利润同比增长下限 | 预告净利润同比增长上限 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | [报告期] 2025中报 | [报告期] 2025中报 | [报告期] 2025中报 | [报告期] 2025中报 | | | | | | [单位] 亿元 | [单位] 亿元 | [单位] % | [单位] %↓ | | | 1 | 600460.SH | 士兰微 | | 2.35 | 2.75 | 1.042.87 | 1.203.36 | | 2 | 600745.SH | 闻泰科技 | | 3.90 | 5.85 | 178 ...

Group 1 - The electronic ETF (515260) focusing on "PCB + semiconductor + consumer electronics" has seen a price increase of 0.73% intraday and is currently up 0.52%, indicating a potential net inflow of funds in recent days [1] - Key constituent stocks include Industrial Fulian, which rose over 4%, and Jingjia Micro, which increased by more than 3%, along with Hikvision, Sanhua Group, Nasda, and Lens Technology, all rising over 2% [1] Group 2 - The H20 chip is reported to have serious security issues, including "tracking and positioning" and "remote shutdown," which may impact domestic manufacturers' procurement plans and accelerate the trend towards self-sufficiency in computing power chips [3] - Nvidia has placed an order for 300,000 H20 chips with TSMC, reflecting strong demand in the Chinese market despite the security vulnerabilities that could destabilize domestic data center operations [3] - As of August 3, 16 out of 50 listed companies in the non-ferrous metals index have reported positive earnings forecasts for the 2025 mid-year report, with 15 companies expecting year-on-year profit growth [3] Group 3 - The semiconductor industry is expected to continue its optimistic growth trajectory in 2025, driven by AI and the ongoing restructuring risks in the supply chain [4] - Companies with strong earnings growth sustainability, AI-PCB, computing hardware, semiconductor self-sufficiency, and industries benefiting from AI are highlighted as key areas of focus [5] Group 4 - The electronic ETF and its linked funds passively track the electronic 50 index, heavily investing in semiconductor and consumer electronics sectors, covering popular industries such as AI chips, automotive electronics, 5G, and cloud computing [6]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - A-share market in China - Hong Kong stock market Core Points and Arguments 1. **Market Outlook for August 2025**: The A-share market is expected to experience a "first decline, then rise" trend, with the potential for new highs driven by intrinsic value improvement, industry trends, and incremental capital inflow [1][3][6] 2. **Economic Stability**: China's economy is showing signs of stability with fiscal stimulus, resilient exports, and consumer spending, although investment and real estate sectors face pressure [1][14][19] 3. **Financial Indicators**: M1 data indicates improving economic activity, suggesting continued upward momentum in the stock market [1][15][16] 4. **PPI Recovery**: The Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to stabilize, which will support corporate profit growth without strong inflation expectations, benefiting new industry investments [1][22][23] 5. **Key Factors for Index Growth**: Factors include increased intrinsic value of companies, development of eight major industry trends (AI, robotics, etc.), and a positive feedback mechanism from incremental capital inflow [5][6] 6. **Impact of US Tariffs**: Short-term psychological effects from US tariffs may impact A-shares, but long-term effects are limited as companies adjust supply chains [4][18] 7. **Investment Strategy**: A "left-dumbbell" strategy is recommended, focusing on high-quality growth stocks and major industry trends [7][36] 8. **Sector Focus**: High-growth sectors include TMT (technology, media, telecommunications), resilient export sectors, and consumer goods [8][34][35] 9. **Political and Economic Policy**: The political bureau meeting emphasized long-term planning and maintaining economic stability, with less focus on short-term stimulus [11][12] 10. **Market Performance**: The stock market's recent rise is attributed to stable profit growth and increased intrinsic value rather than significant profit increases [23][27] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Private Fund Growth**: The scale of private funds has been expanding, indicating improved risk appetite among investors [26][28] 2. **Foreign Investment Trends**: Continuous inflow of foreign capital into A-shares, with notable interest from high-net-worth individuals [27][30] 3. **Real Estate Sector**: While still a drag on the economy, the negative impact of the real estate sector is lessening [19] 4. **Industrial Price Trends**: The industrial price index is nearing a turning point, which could influence market dynamics in the coming years [20][21] 5. **Sector Rotation**: Historical data suggests a potential shift from growth sectors to cyclical sectors as PPI recovers [22][23] This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current market conditions and future expectations for the A-share and Hong Kong markets.

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the overseas AI industry chain's performance and capital expenditure have exceeded expectations, with strong demand for AI computing hardware [1][2] - Meta reported Q2 2025 revenue of $47.516 billion, a year-on-year increase of 22%, surpassing market expectations of $44.8 billion, and net profit grew by 36% to $18.337 billion, significantly above market forecasts [2] - Microsoft achieved Q2 2025 revenue of $76.441 billion, an 18% year-on-year increase, with net profit of $27.233 billion, up 24% [2] Group 2 - Meta raised its full-year capital expenditure (CAPEX) guidance from a minimum of $64 billion to $66 billion, with a range of $66 billion to $72 billion [2] - Microsoft’s Q2 2025 CAPEX was $24.2 billion, a 27% year-on-year increase, and it is expected to exceed $30 billion in Q3 2025, representing a 50% year-on-year growth [2] - The demand for AI-related hardware is expected to remain strong, with significant growth in the number of ASIC chips from companies like Google, Amazon, and Meta projected to exceed 7 million by 2026 [2][4] Group 3 - The industry outlook indicates a robust growth trajectory for sectors such as consumer electronics, PCB, semiconductor chips, and semiconductor manufacturing, with a stable upward trend [4] - Companies in the AI-PCB and computing hardware sectors are expected to benefit significantly from the rapid development and deployment of AI technologies [3][4] - The overall demand for AI computing hardware is anticipated to continue its strong momentum, driven by advancements in technologies like NVIDIA's Blackwell and ASIC chip development [2][3]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the AI industry, with expectations of significant growth in capital expenditures from major companies like Meta and Microsoft, suggesting a "Buy" rating for the sector [2][50]. Core Insights - The AI industry is experiencing robust demand for computing hardware, with companies like Meta and Microsoft reporting better-than-expected Q2 2025 earnings and optimistic capital expenditure forecasts for 2026 [1]. - Meta's Q2 2025 revenue reached $47.516 billion, a 22% year-on-year increase, while Microsoft's revenue was $76.441 billion, up 18% year-on-year [1]. - The demand for AI-related hardware, particularly ASIC chips and AI-PCB, is expected to continue growing, driven by the expansion of AI applications and infrastructure [1][31]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - The AI industry is witnessing a strong performance, with many companies exceeding earnings expectations for Q2 2025, indicating a healthy growth trajectory [1]. - Microsoft reported a 27% year-on-year increase in capital expenditures, with expectations to exceed $30 billion in Q3 2025, reflecting strong confidence in ROI from AI investments [1]. 2. Subsector Analysis - **Consumer Electronics**: DJI's launch of the Osmo360 panoramic camera highlights innovation in the sector, with a focus on the Apple supply chain [5]. - **PCB**: The PCB industry is maintaining high growth momentum, driven by demand from automotive and industrial control sectors, alongside AI expansion [7]. - **Components**: The passive components sector is seeing upward trends, particularly in AI applications, with increased usage of MLCCs and inductors in mobile devices [18]. - **IC Design**: The memory segment is expected to see price increases of 10-20% in Q3 2025 due to supply constraints and rising demand [20][22]. - **Semiconductor Equipment**: The semiconductor equipment market is projected to grow by 21% year-on-year, driven by AI and domestic production needs [27]. 3. Key Companies - **Meta**: Continues to show strong revenue growth and increased capital expenditures, indicating a solid position in the AI market [1][31]. - **Microsoft**: With a significant backlog of orders and strong growth in cloud services, Microsoft is well-positioned to benefit from the AI boom [1][31]. - **NVIDIA**: The rapid rollout of NVIDIA's Blackwell architecture and ASIC chips is expected to drive continued demand for AI-PCB [1]. - **Domestic PCB Manufacturers**: Companies in mainland China are expected to benefit from slow overseas expansion in AI PCB production, positioning them favorably in the market [31]. 4. Market Trends - The report highlights a trend towards increased capital expenditures in the AI sector, with major players like Meta, Google, and Amazon expected to significantly increase their investments [33]. - The demand for AI-related products is anticipated to remain strong, with companies adapting to new technologies and market needs [31][32].

Core Insights - The A-share market experienced a collective decline on Thursday, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 1.18%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.73%, and the ChiNext Index by 1.66% [2][7] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1,935.75 billion yuan [2][7] - In the Shenwan industry sector, computer, communication, and comprehensive industries led the gains, while steel, non-ferrous metals, and real estate sectors faced declines [2][7] Important News - The National Internet Information Office interviewed NVIDIA regarding security risks associated with its H20 computing chips sold to China, which were reported to have serious vulnerabilities [3][8] - New regulations effective from August 1 include the Hong Kong Stablecoin Ordinance, marking the first comprehensive regulatory framework for fiat-backed stablecoins globally [3][8] Fund and Stock Allocation - In Q2 2025, the overall net value of market funds increased to 33.65 trillion yuan, with stock and mixed funds accounting for 22.28% of total fund net value [9] - The overall fund allocation ratio was 78.09%, with equity mixed funds at 78.78% and ordinary stock funds at 84.89%, showing a recovery from Q1 2025 [9][10] - The performance of various fund types varied, with QDII funds yielding 6.98%, mixed funds 2.02%, and stock funds 1.94% [9] Industry Analysis - The beauty and personal care sector saw a fund allocation ratio of 0.32% in Q2 2025, with individual care and medical beauty sectors in an overweight position, while cosmetics remained underweight [17][18] - The electrical equipment export market showed stable performance, with June exports totaling 7.896 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.01% [21][22] - The transformer export market experienced significant growth, with June exports reaching 4.221 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 63.04% [22][24] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors benefiting from policy support, such as beauty and personal care, and electrical equipment, particularly in the context of energy transition and technological advancements [25][29] - The lithium battery industry is expected to enter a recovery phase, driven by strong demand from the electric vehicle and energy storage sectors, with solid-state battery technology breakthroughs being a key focus [29][30]