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汇率还有多少升值空间?股市要起飞吗?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-06 16:36
Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the RMB is driven by a weaker USD and a thawing in China-US trade relations, with future focus on tariff negotiations and US economic data impacting the USD index [1] Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Dynamics - The RMB has shown a "short-term rapid appreciation," influenced by the weakening of the USD and narrowing China-US interest rate differentials [1] - The relationship between the RMB exchange rate and both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks is observed to be vaguely positively correlated, while the exchange rate is strongly correlated with the China-US interest rate differential [1] - The recent rapid appreciation of the RMB has contributed to the recovery of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, but technical analysis suggests that the rapid appreciation phase has ended, leading to potential fluctuations [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis Insights - From a technical perspective, the RMB exchange rate is currently in a phase of oscillation after the rapid appreciation, which may cause disturbances in market trends [1] - The analysis indicates that if the RMB rebounds to certain levels, it may signal further downward movement, while a return to specific thresholds could indicate reduced downward space [1][23] - The PCR indicator, which tracks short-term market timing, has shown a slight increase, indicating a high-risk zone, suggesting that if it remains elevated, a market adjustment may be imminent [1]
港股五一假期表现强劲,港股科技ETF(513020)开盘大涨近3%,过去10个交易日净流入超2亿元
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-05-06 01:54
港股五一假期表现强劲,港股科技ETF(513020)开盘大涨近3%,过去10个交易日净流入超2亿元。 消息面上,美国关税表态有所降温,市场避险情绪有所降温。特区政府统计处2日公布,中国香港地区 经济在2025年第一季度稳健扩张,第一季度GDP同比上涨3.1%,环比上涨2%,均高于预期值和前值。 根据国泰海通证券,从港股2024年年报的整体业绩上看,2024年港股净利润增速进一步上升, 2024/24H1全部港股归母净利润同比增速分别为 9.8%/7.5%。信息技术、医疗板块盈利改善幅度最显 著。 展望后市,随着美国关税政策影响边际递减,投资者风险偏好逐渐回升,同时在国内政策发力的大背景 下,"以高质量发展的确定性应对外部环境急剧变化的不确定性",经济有望维持韧性,叠加科技周期回 升,港股盈利增速有望维持高位。当前港股估值处于历史中低水平,感兴趣的投资者可以关注港股科技 ETF(513020)。 港股科技ETF(513020)跟踪中证港股通科技指数,该指数从港股通范围内选取50只市值较大、研发投 入较高且营收增速较好的科技龙头上市公司证券作为指数样本,反映了港股通内科技龙头上市公司证券 的整体表现。覆盖互联网+ ...
李乐成任工信部部长
券商中国· 2025-04-30 12:09
十四届全国人大常委会第十五次会议30日上午在北京人民大会堂闭幕。会议经表决,决定免去金壮龙的工 业和信息化部部长职务,任命李乐成为工业和信息化部部长。 李乐成 是第二十届中央委员,今年2月已经担任工信部党组书记。 2月28日消息,中央决定:李乐成同志 任工业和信息化部党组书记,免去金壮龙同志的工业和信息化部党组书记职务。 公开资料显示,李乐成出生于1965年3月,湖北监利人,曾在湖北工作多年,担任过 宜昌市市长、湖北省 发改委主任、 襄阳市委书记 等职。2017年6月后,他历任湖北省委常委、襄阳市委书记, 湖北省委常 委、省政府党组副书记、常务副省长等职。 2021年10月,李乐成任辽宁省委副书记、省政府党组书记、副省长、代理省长。2022年1月,他当选为辽 宁省省长,直至今年2月履新工信部。 综合自:新华社、长安街知事 责编: 王璐璐 校对:刘榕枝 百万用户都在看 银行股,突发! 港股,重磅消息!陈茂波,刚刚发声! 利好来了!新能源,重大突破! 万斯,最新宣布! 集体异动!刚刚,暴涨超96%! 违法和不良信息举报电话:0755-83514034 邮箱:bwb@stcn.com 券中社 × 券商中国 券 中 ...
0428:百日维新期满,美联储降息路径逐渐清晰!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-04-28 15:10
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of recent political events in the U.S. and their potential impact on the economy and financial markets, particularly focusing on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions and investor sentiment towards U.S. assets [9][11]. Group 1: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Policy - The article highlights two scenarios for the Federal Reserve's future policy: one where trade negotiations fail, leading to a potential rate cut starting in July, and another where negotiations succeed, resulting in a delay of rate cuts due to persistent inflation pressures [11]. - Current market expectations indicate a 90.3% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in May, with a 9.7% chance of a 25 basis point cut [11]. - Predictions for the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings suggest a significant likelihood of maintaining the current rate of 4.25%-4.50% in May, with a 58.6% chance of a 25 basis point cut by June [12]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Investor Sentiment - Following Trump's criticism of Powell, the dollar index fell to its lowest level since March 2022, but later rebounded as Trump expressed optimism about negotiations [9]. - Trump's approval rating after his first 100 days in office dropped to 39%, marking the lowest for any U.S. president in the past 80 years [9]. - The article notes that the chaotic nature of Trump's administration has led to significant shifts in investor confidence and market dynamics, particularly regarding U.S. assets [9].
港股收评:恒生指数涨2.37%,恒生科技指数涨3.07%
news flash· 2025-04-23 08:11
Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index closed up by 2.37%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 3.07% [1] - The Hong Kong Tech ETF (159751) rose by 3.55%, and the Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect ETF (159318) increased by 2.09% [1] - The robotics and autonomous driving sectors led the gains, while gold and non-ferrous metals sectors experienced declines [1] Group 2 - Companies such as Yujian, UBTECH, and Horizon Robotics saw their stock prices rise by over 10% [1] - Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988) and Shandong Gold Mining (600547) both fell by more than 10% [1] - A-share accounts can now buy Hong Kong stocks on a T+0 basis without the need for Hong Kong Stock Connect [1]
当小宋去会所
叫小宋 别叫总· 2025-04-18 01:27
小宋我去某个四线城市尽调项目,做了一天访谈,晚上急需"回回血"。打开大众点评,搜索"按摩",找到一间会所,看评论还算正规,我就去了。 安排给我的是一位看起来 40 多岁的姐姐,简称"吴姐"。 我刚躺下,吴姐就开腔:先生你是做金融的吧? 我惊讶:你怎么看出来的? 因为你操着普通话,说明是来出差的。然后,你看着年龄不大,但是有些秃顶,还有黑眼圈。 我们当地有很多挺大的企业,叫什么 ...ipo 阶段企业。像你这行业的人,我经常接待,都差不多长你这个样子。 我心想,这个姐有内容,有意思。"你干这行多久啦?" 吴姐说: 18 岁我就入行喽,也算是见过这行业的大风大浪的。 嗷?啥风浪? 我入行的时候,按摩业务已经不能随便上了,要去 X 局审批,简称"审核制"。 然后呢,那个时候,很乱的,你只要 X 局里有人,就能上。要是没人呢,就找个对缝的,帮你对接 X 局的人。 然后,你得给帮你忙的人,一些好处。 我:还可以这么搞?不怕被查到嘛? 吴姐:我们都很守规矩的,大家嘴都很严。上面要是问,就咬死说,是我们会所软硬件达标,是凭实力上的。 我:有意思。后来呢? 后来肯定逐渐正规啦,这种灰色操作没得搞啦。再后来,说要提高市场效率, ...