Monetary Policy Measures - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a comprehensive monetary policy package with ten specific measures aimed at stabilizing the market and expectations[8] - A reduction in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 0.5 percentage points is expected to release approximately ¥1 trillion in long-term liquidity[9] - The policy interest rate for the 7-day reverse repurchase operation was lowered by 0.1 percentage points, from 1.596% to 1.4%, which is anticipated to lead to a similar decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by about 0.1 percentage points[9] Economic Indicators - In the first four months of 2025, China's total goods trade value reached ¥14.14 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.4%[19] - Exports amounted to ¥8.39 trillion, increasing by 7.5%, while imports totaled ¥5.75 trillion, showing a decline of 4.2%[19] - The trade surplus for April was ¥700 billion, with exports growing by 9.3% and imports increasing by 0.8%[19] Sector Performance - The major stock indices showed varied performance, with the ChiNext Index leading with a weekly increase of 3.3%, while the STAR 50 Index decreased by 0.6%[30] - The A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend due to favorable policies and relatively low valuations[25] Trade Partners - ASEAN remains China's largest trading partner, with trade totaling ¥2.38 trillion, a growth of 9.2%[21] - Trade with the EU reached ¥1.78 trillion, growing by 1.1%, while trade with the US decreased by 2.1% to ¥1.44 trillion[21] Investment Trends - Private enterprises accounted for 56.9% of total foreign trade, with imports and exports growing by 6.8%[22] - The import value of mechanical and electrical products increased by 5.7%, indicating a shift in trade dynamics[24]

新华财经纽约5月7日电（记者刘亚南）由于市场对美联储降息的预期降温，7日美元兑除瑞士法郎以外 的一揽子货币走高，美元指数在隔夜市场和当日上午走强，当日午后涨幅显著扩大，尾盘时美元指数明 显上涨。 衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数当天上涨0.43%，在汇市尾市收于99.665。 美国联邦储备委员会7日结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至 4.50%之间不变。 美联储在当日表示，经济前景的不确定性已经进一步增加。美联储公开市场委员会关注就业和物价稳定 两个方面的风险，认为失业率上升和通胀走高的风险已经上升。 芝加哥商品交易所美联储观察工具（FedWatch Tool）在7日下午5:07分公布的数据显示，美联储到2025 年6月份议息会议时把联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%-4.5%不变的概率从前一日的68.8%升至 80.1%。 麦格理全球外汇和利率策略师蒂埃里·阿尔伯特·维兹曼（ThierryAlbertWizman）表示，关税对通胀影响 的不确定性，以及通胀预期上升的长期影响，迫使美联储公开市场委员会劝阻交易员不要假设未来会大 幅降息。 截至纽约汇市尾市，1欧元兑换1. ...

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank anticipates that the Federal Reserve will maintain its current interest rate range of 4.25-4.50% while awaiting the impact of recently implemented trade policies on economic growth and inflation [1] Interest Rate Projections - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower rates by 8 basis points in June and 24 basis points in July, totaling a reduction of 78 basis points by the end of the year [1] - For the following year, a total reduction of 113 basis points is projected by June 2026 and 118 basis points by December 2026 [1]

上个交易日有效的联邦基金利率报4.33%，之前一天报4.33%。 据美国纽约联储数据，上个交易日（5月5日）担保隔夜融资利率（SOFR）报4.33%，之前一天报 4.36%。 在面临美联储降息威胁之际，买家们青睐美国财政部的六个月期国债供应。 ...

转自：新华财经 虽然特朗普表示他不寻求解除美联储主席鲍威尔的职务，但再次呼吁鲍威尔降息。 美国供应管理学会当日上午发布的数据显示，美国4月份服务业景气指数为51.6，高于市场预期的50.2和 3月份的50.8。这一数据公布后，美元跌幅收窄。 芝加哥商品交易所美联储观察工具（FedWatch Tool）在5日下午4:17分公布的数据显示，美联储到2025 年6月份议息会议时把联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%-4.5%不变的概率从一周前的35.1%升至 70.2%，对美联储在6月份降息的预期显著回落。 美联储将于6-7日举行例行货币政策会议，市场认为美联储维持利率不变的概率高达97.3%。 新华财经纽约5月5日电（记者刘亚南）由于美国关税政策继续引发市场担忧，5日美元兑欧元、英镑、 日元和瑞士法郎走低，美元兑加元和瑞典克朗走高，美元指数在隔夜市场走低，当日上午跌幅收窄，随 后弱势盘整，尾盘时美元指数下跌。 衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数当天下跌0.2%，在汇市尾市收于99.828。 外汇经纪商Monex美国公司交易业务负责人胡安•佩雷兹（Juan Perez）表示，美国总统特朗普维持其认 为关税重要的看法正 ...

Core Insights - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is meeting to evaluate the economy and may adjust the federal funds rate [1][4] - The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for September 16-17, 2025, marking its sixth meeting of the year [2] - The Fed is anticipated to cut the federal funds rate for the first time this year due to recent economic indicators [4] Meeting Details - The FOMC will release its policy decisions at 2 p.m. Eastern time, followed by a news conference at 2:30 p.m. [2][3] - The minutes from the meeting will be available three weeks post the policy decision [3] Economic Context - Recent indicators suggest a moderation in economic activity growth in the first half of the year, despite a low unemployment rate and solid labor market conditions [4] - A weak jobs report has led experts to believe that a rate cut is likely [4] Financial Strategies - Individuals are advised to lock in high rates through certificates of deposit (CDs) before potential rate cuts [5] - Refinancing fixed-rate loans may be beneficial, but timing should consider future rate cuts [5] - Strategic timing for large expenses is recommended, with a focus on interest rate trends [5]

Group 1 - The offshore RMB appreciated significantly against the USD, rising over 500 points and exceeding 0.7% on May 2, 2025, closing at 7.226 [1] - The Hong Kong stock market showed strong performance, with the Hang Seng Index up 1.74% and the Hang Seng Tech Index up 3.08%, driven by gains in tech stocks such as Xiaomi (+6%), Alibaba (+3.8%), Tencent (+2.56%), and Kingsoft Cloud (+4%) [1] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessenet indicated that the bond market signals the Federal Reserve should lower interest rates, noting that the two-year Treasury yield was 3.717%, below the federal funds rate of 4.33% [1] Group 2 - President Trump has publicly criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Powell for slow rate cuts, threatening to dismiss him, while emphasizing that the economy may slow without immediate rate reductions [2] - The 10-year Treasury yield has decreased significantly since Trump's inauguration, dropping from approximately 4.63% on January 20 to around 4.15% recently, which has saved the federal government substantial interest costs [2] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) plans to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy to support the real economy, while also managing the exchange rate based on market supply and demand [2]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Becerra, indicated that the two-year U.S. Treasury yield signals that the Federal Reserve should consider lowering interest rates, as it has fallen below the federal funds rate [1][4]. Group 1: Treasury Secretary's Statements - Becerra's comments align with President Trump's criticism of the Fed for not lowering rates this year, suggesting that declining energy and other prices justify a rate cut [2]. - Becerra has previously stated he would refrain from commenting on the Fed's rate policy, yet he now suggests a need for consideration of rate cuts [5]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - The market reacted to Becerra's comments with skepticism, as the two-year Treasury yield increased by 10 basis points to 3.7%, indicating a lack of confidence in the call for a rate cut [3]. - Financial market participants generally expect the Fed to maintain interest rates, given that inflation remains above the 2% target and recent tariffs imposed by Trump are likely to exert upward pressure on prices [3][5]. Group 3: Economic Implications - Timiraos noted that the two-year Treasury yield has been below the Fed's short-term policy rate for most of 2023 and 2024, reflecting two investor expectations: a "soft landing" for the economy or a recession leading to a drop in inflation and subsequent rate cuts [5]. - Concerns were raised about the potential for the Fed to lower rates too quickly, which could exacerbate persistent inflation risks [6][7].

美国财长贝森特：美国2年期国债收益率低于联邦基金利率暗示美联储应该降息。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary expects economic data to be revised, indicating potential changes in economic outlook [1] Economic Performance - The U.S. GDP showed strong performance in the first quarter, with expectations for data revisions [1] Inflation Policy - The current policies are aimed at reducing inflation [1] Interest Rates - The yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds is below the federal funds rate, suggesting that the Federal Reserve should consider lowering interest rates [1]