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鲁比尼:欧洲的真正生存威胁在于经济和科技的落后
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2026-01-25 12:48
美国总统特朗普的新《国家安全战略》对长期被视为美国最可靠盟友的欧洲给出了一个错误评估。该战 略警告说,不受约束的移民以及其他被其政府官员讥为"觉醒主义"的政策可能在数十年内致使欧洲"文 明消亡"。 欧盟确实面临生存威胁,但这与移民或文化政治几乎毫无关联。 第二,欧洲受制于过度且碎片化的监管。美国初创企业仅需遵循单一监管框架即可推出产品并立即触达 一个拥有逾3.3亿消费者的市场,而拥有约4.5亿人口的欧盟却仍被分割为27个国家监管体系。国际货币 基金组织的一项分析显示,欧盟的内部市场壁垒对商品和服务的实际阻碍分别相当于44%和110%的关 税,远高于美国对多数进口商品征收的关税水平。 第三,两者对风险承担的文化态度存在显著差异。直到前几年某些欧盟国家(如意大利)的创业失败者 还可能面临刑事处罚;而在美国,一位从未失败过的科技创始人反倒会被视为过于保守。 第四,美国受益于一个深度融合的学术-军事-工业复合体系,而欧洲国防投入的长期不足则削弱了其创 新能力。美国、中国、以色列及近年崛起的乌克兰等技术强国均在国防领域投入巨资,而这类研究时常 可以催生出可供民用的技术成果。 尽管如此,许多欧洲政治领导人依然将增加国防开 ...
关于把握数字化智能化发展浪潮提升中央银行履职能力的若干思考|金融与科技
清华金融评论· 2026-01-25 09:20
文/中国人民银行科技司相关课题组 金融数字化、智能化背景下提升央行履职能力应以建设强大的中央银行为 目标,以数字央行建设为抓手,以运用数字化智能化手段提升央行履职能 力为主线,为建设具有高度适应性、竞争力、普惠性的中国特色现代金融 体系贡献科技力量。 金融信息化事业加速迈进数字化智能化新阶段 金融业是典型的技术密集型和创新驱动型行业。一部金融发展史,也是一部金融与科技不断融合创新的演进史。改革开放以来,随着信息技术持续迭代发 展,我国金融信息化事业已先后历经电子化、网络化阶段,为迈进数字化、智能化新阶段奠定坚实基础。金融电子化阶段,我国金融业主要依托电子计算 机、卫星通讯网络等技术,实现金融业务"从手工到电子、从单机到联网"的历史性突破,行业整体电子化、自动化水平显著提升。金融网络化阶段,我国 金融业运用互联网、移动通信、数据库等技术,将传统金融业务迁移至互联网和移动终端,推动金融数据集中和信息系统互联互通,支撑央行履职的国 库、支付、征信、反洗钱、会计核算等信息化基础设施体系逐步建立健全,金融服务和管理信息化水平实现全面跃升。 近年来,随着新一轮科技革命和产业变革深入发展,人工智能、大数据、云计算、区块链、 ...
2026年宏观经济展望——全球经济再平衡|宏观经济
清华金融评论· 2026-01-25 09:20
Economic Outlook - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes a recovery in prices and a stable GDP growth rate of around 5% for 2026, aligning with expectations. Inflation indicators are expected to gradually improve, leading to better corporate profits and household incomes. Overall, a trend of oscillating recovery is anticipated, with a key turning point expected in the second to third quarter when the comprehensive price level is projected to turn positive from negative [1][8]. GDP and Economic Growth - In 2025, China's GDP is expected to achieve a growth rate of 5%, with a similar outlook for 2026. Notably, the relationship between nominal GDP and real GDP is changing, with both showing a gradual recovery. A significant turning point is anticipated in the second to third quarter, where nominal GDP is expected to surpass real GDP, indicating a positive growth in overall inflation indicators [3]. Consumer Market - The "trade-in" policy for consumer goods has played a crucial role in supporting consumption. In 2025, the total retail sales of social consumer goods are projected to grow by approximately 3.7%, with categories related to the "trade-in" policy, such as communication equipment and home appliances, showing rapid growth. The policy's effects are expected to continue into 2026, with an expansion of coverage to include smart products and AI glasses [4]. Manufacturing Sector - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes maintaining a stable proportion of manufacturing in the economy. China's manufacturing sector is leading among major industrial countries, with improvements in quality and efficiency reflected in rising labor productivity. Emerging industries, including AI, big data, and biomedicine, are expected to drive future growth [4]. Real Estate Market - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the focus in the real estate sector will be on inventory reduction. Although the inventory of unsold commercial housing has decreased, there remains a need for further de-stocking. Various policy tools have been prepared to support this, including central bank loans for affordable housing and special bonds for inventory reduction [5]. Infrastructure Investment - Debt reduction is crucial for infrastructure investment. The article categorizes provinces into "debt reduction" and "economic powerhouse" regions, noting that investment growth has been higher in economic powerhouse provinces. As debt reduction efforts progress, investment space in relevant provinces is expected to be released. New policy financial tools introduced recently are anticipated to positively impact infrastructure investment [6]. Export Performance - China's export growth has been unexpectedly strong, with a projected 5% increase in 2025 and a trade surplus of approximately $1 trillion. The resilience in exports is attributed to diversification and structural upgrades in the industry. The share of exports to the U.S. has decreased from nearly 20% to 11%, while exports to ASEAN countries have risen to 17% [7]. Monetary and Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy for 2025 is described as very proactive, with a deficit rate of about 4% and an increase in special bond quotas. For 2026, fiscal policy is expected to remain expansive, focusing on structural optimization and potentially easing local financing restrictions [12]. Capital Market Trends - The domestic A-share market has shown an upward trend, particularly in the technology sector. The global capital markets have also experienced varying degrees of growth, with emerging markets performing notably well. The article suggests that these trends are likely to continue into 2026, driven by a weak dollar environment [14]. Currency and Gold Market - Since November 2025, the RMB has strengthened significantly, supported by a large trade surplus and increased demand for the currency. The article anticipates a continued moderate appreciation of the RMB in 2026. Additionally, gold prices have been rising, reflecting both its monetary and credit attributes, suggesting that gold will maintain its investment value in 2026 [15][16].
Here's Why I Wouldn't Touch Rigetti Computing With a 10-Foot Pole
The Motley Fool· 2026-01-25 00:31
Core Viewpoint - Rigetti Computing is experiencing significant challenges in the quantum computing sector, particularly regarding accuracy and technology advancement, despite a recent rise in stock price and some positive analyst ratings [1][8]. Company Performance - Rigetti's stock price has seen a notable increase of over 45% in 2025 and more than 10% in 2026, but current market sentiment suggests caution [1][2]. - The current stock price is $23.45, with a market capitalization of $7.7 billion [2]. Technology and Competitiveness - Rigetti's quantum computing systems are reported to be over 1,000 times faster than those of competitor IonQ, but the company struggles with accuracy, achieving a two-qubit gate fidelity of only 99.5%, compared to IonQ's 99.99% [2][4]. - The company has not advanced to Stage B of the Quantum Benchmarking Initiative by DARPA, indicating a setback in its technological standing [5]. Challenges in Quantum Computing - Quantum computing systems, including those from Rigetti, are highly error-prone due to the instability of qubits, which are susceptible to external factors like vibrations and temperature changes [3]. - Rigetti's delay in launching its new 108-qubit Cepheus-1-108Q system is aimed at improving its error rate, highlighting ongoing challenges in achieving reliable performance [5]. Analyst Sentiment - Some analysts have expressed optimism about Rigetti, with Rossenblatt Securities initiating coverage with a "buy" rating and B. Riley upgrading the stock following an $8.4 million order from India's Centre for Development of Advanced Computing [7]. - Despite these positive mentions, the overall assessment suggests that Rigetti remains significantly behind its competitors in the quantum computing race [8].
2025中国经济:稳中有进 量质齐升
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-24 20:40
Economic Overview - In 2025, China's GDP reached 140,187.9 billion yuan, marking a 5% year-on-year growth, achieving a significant milestone [3] - The economic performance is characterized by resilience and vitality despite facing pressures from international competition, trade wars, and domestic challenges [3][4] Structural Changes - China's economy is transitioning towards new and upgraded development, with traditional industries accelerating their transformation and emerging industries like quantum computing and AI gaining momentum [4] - Active fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies have played a crucial role in maintaining market vitality [4] Trade and Openness - In 2025, China's total import and export value reached 454,687 billion yuan, reflecting a 3.8% increase, marking the ninth consecutive year of growth [8] - China's export potential remains strong due to international demand and ongoing improvements in trade environment, including the signing of the upgraded China-ASEAN Free Trade Area agreement [8][9] Real Estate Market - The real estate market in 2025 showed signs of stabilization, with transaction volumes stabilizing and inventory levels decreasing [6] - The completion of housing delivery tasks marked a significant milestone, reducing risks associated with high debt and leverage in the sector [6] Consumer Spending - Retail sales of consumer goods surpassed 50 trillion yuan, growing by 3.7%, with final consumption contributing 52% to economic growth, an increase of 5 percentage points from the previous year [7] - The focus on investing in human capital, such as education and healthcare, is seen as essential for unlocking long-term consumption potential [7] New Productive Forces - New productive forces are identified as a key driver in the transition towards a new and superior economic model, enhancing industrial structure and export competitiveness [10] - Financial support for new productive forces has been increasing, with a need for further optimization in direct financing and the establishment of industry investment funds [10]
西贝突曝大消息!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-01-24 13:03
Financing Activities - Haier New Energy completed over 1 billion RMB in Series B financing, with funds primarily allocated for R&D and market expansion in photovoltaic and energy storage systems [2] - Supermagnetic New Energy announced several hundred million RMB in angel round financing, focusing on the development of high-temperature superconducting magnetic systems for controllable nuclear fusion [2] - Ailios Biotech secured over 100 million RMB in pre-B round financing to enhance its self-developed filtration membranes for biopharmaceutical applications [3] - Anhui Anpin Intelligent Technology completed angel round financing to accelerate the promotion of intelligent tavern operation solutions [3] - Dongyi Technology raised over 100 million RMB in angel++ round financing to advance its "Robot for AI" strategy [4] - Dvision Medical completed several tens of millions RMB in A2 round financing to promote the development of super-microsurgery robots [5] - AI startup Anthropic is pursuing a new financing round aiming to raise 25 billion USD, with significant investments from major tech firms [5] - Xingsai Biotech completed nearly 100 million RMB in A++ round financing, focusing on single-cell analysis instruments [6] - Today Sleep, a startup, announced several tens of millions RMB in seed round financing to develop sleep-related smart products [7] - Zhejiang Dejin Biotech completed several tens of millions RMB in A round financing to advance its recombinant botulinum toxin products [7] - Yupan Intelligent completed 513 million RMB in Pre-IPO+ financing to enhance its capabilities in embodied intelligence and global expansion [8] - Nanjing Hairong Pharmaceutical raised 140 million RMB in a new round of financing to accelerate the development of innovative drugs [9] - Xibei Restaurant Group completed A round financing, with investments from various parties including the founder of a well-known restaurant brand [10] - New Yue Biotech completed several tens of millions RMB in A+ round financing to enhance its AI drug development capabilities [10] - AtomForm announced a new round of financing exceeding 100 million RMB to accelerate its commercialization process [11] - Liangxuan Technology completed several hundred million RMB in C round financing to promote quantum computing applications [12] - Lianbo Precision completed over 100 million RMB in C round financing to support high-end manufacturing initiatives [13] - Juwei Technology completed nearly 100 million RMB in A round financing to enhance its industrial IoT capabilities [14] - Lanjing Technology secured several tens of millions RMB in A+ round financing to focus on agricultural robotics [14] - Zhejiang Humanoid Robot Innovation Center completed 450 million RMB in Pre-A round financing, reflecting strong market confidence [15] - Epuji completed nearly 100 million USD in B round financing to strengthen its data center delivery capabilities [16] Investment Funds - The establishment of various investment funds, including a 20 billion RMB seed fund in Shanghai focusing on AI and intelligent models [19] - The launch of a 50 billion RMB investment fund in Zhengzhou aimed at supporting innovative industries [20] - The creation of a 10 billion RMB fusion energy venture capital fund in Hefei to support key technologies in nuclear fusion [20]
Tom Lee:加密市场近期表现疲软主要源于“去杠杆化”,比特币的长期逻辑未变
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-24 11:21
吴说获悉,Fundstrat 研究主管、BitMine 董事长 Tom Lee 近期在 CNBC 采访中表示,加密市场近期表现 疲软主要源于"去杠杆化",特别是"格陵兰岛声明"引发了 JGB 收益率波动和加密资产抛售。尽管如 此,Tom Lee 认为比特币的长期逻辑未变,机构采用率持续增长,20 万美元的目标并非不可实现,但 他目前更看好以太坊在智能区块链领域的叙事。他还提及市场存在关于"量子计算可能窃取比特币旧钱 包资金"的担忧。 (来源:吴说) ...
清华哈佛背景团队做量子计算机,营收翻倍增长,拿下数亿融资|早起看早期
36氪· 2026-01-24 01:17
以下文章来源于硬氪 ,作者欧雪 硬氪 . 专注全球化、硬科技报道。36kr旗下官方账号。 设定了每年量子比特数至少翻倍的增长目标。 文 | 欧雪 编辑 | 袁斯来 来源| 硬氪 (ID:south_36kr) 封面来源 | 企业供图 硬氪获悉,量子计算企业深圳量旋科技有限公司(以下简称"量旋科技")近日完成数亿元C轮融资。我们总结了本轮融资信息和该公司几大亮点: 融资 金额及领投 机构 融资金额: 数亿元 融资轮次: C轮 投资机构: 隆利科技、毅达资本、晶凯资本、恒泰华盛等财务机构 技术亮点: 具备全栈自主研发与芯片量产能力;专注量子纠错技术,构建"硬件—算法—控制"协同体系;自建超导芯片产线,年产能可达数千片。 量子芯片实验室(图源/企业) 应用场景:覆盖科研机构、高校教育、金融科技、生物医药、材料研发等领域,并已扩展至企业研发场景。 市场体量 资金用途: 主要用于超导量子计算机全栈技术研发,涵盖芯片新工艺、量子纠错、测控系统及整机集成等关键方向 公司基 本信息 成立时间: 2018年 公司总部: 深圳 核心产品: 产业级超导量子计算机"大熊座"系列;教育级核磁量子计算机"双子座""三角座"系列;量子软件 ...
对话经济学人智库首席经济学家:在“渴望确定性”的时代寻找增长锚点
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-24 00:11
Core Insights - The World Economic Forum 2026 aims to find stability amid geopolitical economic fluctuations and the AI investment boom driven by U.S. President Trump's policies [1][9] AI and Technology Leadership - Discussions around AI are shifting from abstract concepts to specific application scenarios, with many entrepreneurs engaged in AI-related businesses [3][11] - AI is creating numerous new jobs that did not exist one or two years ago, enhancing productivity through cloud programming tools [3][11] - The core value of AI is increasingly seen as enhancing existing capabilities, with examples of AI tools improving research efficiency [3][11] - Concerns about AI exacerbating global inequality hinge on design, with well-designed AI being accessible to everyone [3][11] Future Predictions - AI is expected to have a disruptive impact in two key areas: healthcare, potentially shortening the time to market for life-saving drugs and significantly extending average life expectancy over the next decade, and robotics, where video data processing will enhance applications [4][12] China's Technological Advancements - China is recognized for its rapid technological progress, with examples like DJI and BYD showcasing its leadership in technology and electric vehicles [5][12] - The global electrification effort to combat climate change is seen as crucial, with China leading in this technological domain [5][12] Climate Challenges and Investment - The UN Environment Programme reports that developing countries will need over $310 billion annually for climate adaptation by 2035, highlighting a significant funding gap [6][13] - Addressing climate investment challenges requires cooperation and a long-term perspective, with technological breakthroughs being essential for solutions [6][13] - Private capital's involvement in green projects faces historical challenges, but emerging markets have opportunities to leapfrog to green technologies [7][13] ESG Considerations - The integration of Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) factors should not be rigidly enforced, as their internal goals and metrics do not naturally align [8][14] - Good governance is crucial for fostering a fair competitive environment, while social factors like employee retention can enhance business performance [8][14] - The transition to green energy is fundamentally driven by technology making it more economical than fossil fuels, indicating a gradual approach to achieving sustainability goals [8][14]
华尔街见闻早餐FM-Radio | 2026年1月24日
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2026-01-23 23:22
华见早安之声 请各位听众升级为见闻最新版APP,以便成功收听以下音频。 市场概述 投资者等待下周美联储会议和大型科技公司财报。美股主要股指涨跌互现。道指跌0.6%,标普基本持 平,本周累计跌0.42%,去年6月以来首次两周连跌。科技七巨头涨超1%。英特尔绩后暴跌17%。苹果 跌0.12%,本周累计跌近4%、连续第八周下跌,创2022年5月以来最长连跌。 周五美债交投相对平淡,10年期美债收益率跌1个基点,2年期收益率持平。 美元重挫0.87%,创去年8月以来最大日跌幅。非美货币大涨,日元因市场传言日本当局可能干预而飙 升1.6%。 加密货币盘中反弹后回落,比特币和以太坊大体持平于周四尾盘。 贵金属继续飙升。现货黄金涨1%、逼近5000美元,本周累计涨超8%、创近六年来最大周涨幅。现货白 银周五盘中暴涨7%,首次突破100美元大关。美油涨超2%,报道称特朗普企图阻挠伊拉克出口石油。 亚洲时段,AH股震荡走高,商业航天、光伏大爆发,碳酸锂突破18万大关,沪银站上25000创历史新 高。 要闻 公募业绩基准新规落地:业绩长期低于基准,基金经理应降薪,设置一年过渡期。 金属狂欢掀高潮!白银首次破百、黄金逼近5000美 ...