1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall A - share market shows sector rotation, with the index facing resistance above. The futures market also shows corresponding fluctuations, and different investment strategies are recommended according to different varieties [2][3][4]. - The sentiment in the Treasury bond futures market has warmed up, but there are still short - term end - of - quarter disturbances. The bond market is generally expected to be in a pattern of short - term fluctuations but overall strength [5][6]. - The prices of precious metals are dominated by tariffs and macro - policies. Gold and silver show different trends. Gold has a long - term upward trend but faces short - term uncertainties, while silver shows a relatively strong short - term trend [8][10][11]. - The container shipping futures EC shows a volatile trend, and it is recommended to wait and see cautiously [12]. - Different metals in the non - ferrous metals sector have different market conditions. For example, copper is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, while aluminum oxide is expected to be weak in the medium - long term [13][17]. - In the black metals sector, steel is affected by coking coal supply, iron ore may be stable and strong in the short term, and coking coal and coke have different supply - demand and price trends [41][43][45]. - In the agricultural products sector, meal products follow the decline of US soybeans, and the market trends of different agricultural products such as pigs, corn, sugar, and cotton vary [51][54][57]. 3. Summaries According to the Catalog Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: On Thursday, the A - share market opened lower, rose briefly, and then declined in the afternoon. The main stock indexes and the four major stock index futures contracts all adjusted. The basis discount of the four major stock index futures contracts was repaired to some extent [2][3]. - **News**: The National Development and Reform Commission will issue the third batch of consumer goods replacement funds in July. Overseas, Japan is negotiating tariffs with the US [3]. - **Funding**: On June 26, the A - share trading volume was basically the same as the previous day. The central bank carried out reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 305.8 billion yuan [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The index has stable support below and needs a driving force to break through above. It is recommended to try to buy the deeply discounted 09 contract of the CSI 1000 on dips and sell the 09 call option near 6300 to form a covered combination [4]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Most Treasury bond futures closed flat, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market declined [5]. - **Funding**: The central bank carried out reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 305.8 billion yuan. The central bank's attitude towards protecting liquidity is clear, and the end - of - month capital interest rate may fluctuate but is generally controllable [5][6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The end - of - month capital situation still has disturbances, and the bond market is generally cautious. It is recommended to appropriately allocate long positions on adjustments, pay attention to economic data and funding trends, and consider positive arbitrage for the TS2509 contract and curve steepening strategies [6][7]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **Market Review**: Due to factors such as tariff negotiations and macro - policies, the US dollar index weakened, and the trends of gold and silver diverged. Gold prices declined slightly, while silver prices rose [8][10]. - **Outlook**: Gold has a long - term upward trend but faces short - term uncertainties. It is recommended to try the strategy of double - selling out - of - the - money gold options. Silver shows a relatively strong short - term trend, and its price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the range of $36 - 37 [10][11]. - **Funding**: The recent stable trends of US stocks and bonds and the strong performance of virtual currencies suppress the prices of precious metals, but the long - position boost has led to a continuous increase in silver ETF holdings [11]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Futures - **Spot Quotation**: The spot prices of different shipping companies are provided [12]. - **Container Shipping Index**: The SCFIS European line index rose, while the US West line index declined. The SCFI composite index declined [12]. - **Fundamentals**: The global container shipping capacity increased year - on - year. The demand side shows the PMI data of the eurozone and the US [12]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: The futures price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1700 - 1800, and it is recommended to wait and see cautiously [12][13]. Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: The average price of electrolytic copper increased, but the overall trading was inactive [13]. - **Macro**: The market's expectation of interest rate cuts has increased, the dollar index has weakened, and the COMEX - LME spread has widened again, which is beneficial to copper prices [13][14]. - **Supply**: The supply of copper concentrate is expected to be restricted, and the production of refined copper increased in May but is expected to decline slightly in June [15]. - **Demand**: The processing and terminal demand of copper show different trends. The short - term domestic demand has resilience, but the "rush - to - export" demand may lead to pressure on the demand side in Q3 [16]. - **Inventory**: COMEX inventory is accumulating, while domestic inventory is slightly decreasing [16]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: Copper prices are expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, with the main contract referring to the range of 78000 - 81000 [17]. Aluminum Oxide - **Spot**: The average spot price of aluminum oxide decreased [17]. - **Supply**: The production of metallurgical - grade aluminum oxide increased in May, and some production capacities are expected to resume production in June [18]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of aluminum oxide decreased, and the total registered warehouse receipts decreased [18]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: The supply of aluminum oxide is in a state of slight excess, and it is recommended to arrange short positions at high prices in the medium - long term, with the main contract referring to the range of 2750 - 3100 [19]. Aluminum - **Spot**: The average spot price of aluminum decreased, and the premium decreased [20]. - **Supply**: The production of electrolytic aluminum increased in May, and the aluminum - water ratio remained high. The production capacity is expected to remain high in June [20]. - **Demand**: Downstream industries are in the traditional off - season, and the operating rates of various industries have declined [20]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum ingots increased, and the LME inventory decreased [21]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: Aluminum prices are expected to be in a wide - range high - level shock, with the main contract referring to the range of 19800 - 20800 [21]. Aluminum Alloy - **Spot**: The average spot price of aluminum alloy remained unchanged [21]. - **Supply**: The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased in May, and the operating rate is expected to decline slightly in June [22]. - **Demand**: The demand is under pressure, and the market trading activity has decreased. The impact of the Sino - US economic and trade talks on actual demand has not yet been effective [22]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of aluminum alloy has increased significantly [22]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: The market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to be in a weak shock, with the main contract referring to the range of 19200 - 20000 [23]. Zinc - **Spot**: The average price of zinc ingots increased, but the downstream receiving willingness was low [23]. - **Supply**: The supply of zinc ore is expected to be loose, and the production of refined zinc is expected to increase in June [24]. - **Demand**: The demand at the initial end is weakening, and the downstream is mainly purchasing on dips [25]. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory and LME inventory are both decreasing [25]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: Zinc prices are expected to be in a shock in the short term, with the main contract referring to the range of 21500 - 23000 [26]. Tin - **Spot**: The price of tin increased, but the market trading was cold [26]. - **Supply**: The import of tin ore increased in May, mainly from Africa, while the supply from Myanmar remained low [27][28]. - **Demand and Inventory**: The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory shows different trends. The LME inventory decreased, while the warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased [28]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: Tin prices are expected to be in a wide - range shock in the short term. It is recommended to short at high prices according to the inflection points of inventory and import data [29]. Nickel - **Spot**: The average price of electrolytic nickel increased [29]. - **Supply**: The production of refined nickel is at a high level, and the monthly production is expected to decline slightly [29]. - **Demand**: The demand for electroplating and alloys is stable, while the demand for stainless steel and nickel sulfate is weak [30]. - **Inventory**: The overseas inventory remains high, and the domestic social inventory shows a slight downward trend [30]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: Nickel prices are expected to be in a weak shock in the short term, with the main contract referring to the range of 116000 - 124000 [31]. Stainless Steel - **Spot**: The price of stainless steel increased slightly, and the basis decreased [32]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of nickel ore is expected to decline, and the price of nickel iron has decreased. The price of chrome ore has weak support [32]. - **Supply**: The production of stainless steel is expected to decrease slightly in June, with an increase in the 300 - series production [33]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory has increased, and the warehouse receipts have decreased [34]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: The price of stainless steel is expected to be in a weak operation, with the main contract referring to the range of 12300 - 13000 [35]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: The price of lithium carbonate increased, and the price of lithium hydroxide decreased [36]. - **Supply**: The production of lithium carbonate is expected to increase in June, and the supply is still sufficient [37]. - **Demand**: The demand is generally stable, but there is pressure in the off - season [37]. - **Inventory**: The inventory has been accumulating in all links [38]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: The price of lithium carbonate is expected to be in a weak shock in the short term, with the main contract referring to the range of 58000 - 62000 [39]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - **Spot**: The spot price remained stable, and the futures price fluctuated slightly [41]. - **Supply**: The production of steel decreased from a high level, and the production of five major steel products increased slightly [41]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand of five major steel products decreased slightly, and the inventory was at a low level and basically balanced [41]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of steel is approaching the accumulation inflection point, with the inventory of rebar decreasing and the inventory of hot - rolled coil increasing slightly [42]. - **View**: It is recommended to short on rebounds for rebar and hot - rolled coil, and also consider selling out - of - the - money call options [42]. Iron Ore - **Spot**: The price of mainstream iron ore powder remained stable [43]. - **Futures**: The iron ore futures contract increased slightly [43]. - **Basis**: The basis of PB powder is 33.7 yuan/ton [43]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron production remained at a high level, and the demand for iron ore has certain resilience [43]. - **Supply**: The global shipment of iron ore increased, and the arrival volume at ports also increased [43][44]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory increased slightly, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory decreased [44]. - **View**: Iron ore is expected to be stable and strong in the short term, and it is recommended to go long on dips, with the range referring to 690 - 740 [44]. Coking Coal - **Futures and Spot**: The coking coal futures price increased, and the spot price was weakly stable [45]. - **Supply**: The production capacity utilization rate of coal mines decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased [45][46]. - **Demand**: The demand for coking coal increased slightly, and the apparent demand increased [46]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of coking coal decreased [46]. - **View**: It is recommended to go long on dips for the coking coal 2509 contract in the short term and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [47][48]. Coke - **Futures and Spot**: The coke futures price increased, and the spot price was stable. The fourth round of price cuts was implemented [49]. - **Profit**: The average profit per ton of coke was negative [49]. - **Supply**: The production of coke decreased slightly [49]. - **Demand**: The demand for coke increased slightly, and the apparent demand increased [50]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of coke decreased [50]. - **View**: It is recommended to hedge the coke 2509 contract at high prices after the rebound, and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [50]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal Products - **Spot Market**: The price of soybean meal decreased, and the price of rapeseed meal decreased. The trading volume of rapeseed meal was 300 tons, and the opening rate of rapeseed pressing plants was 17% [51]. - **Fundamentals**: Analysts expect the US soybean inventory and planting area. The export of Brazilian soybeans slowed down, and the soybean harvest in Ukraine is expected to decrease [52]. - **Market Outlook**: The soybean meal price may follow the decline of US soybeans, but the support is expected to gradually strengthen [53]. Pigs - **Spot Situation**: The spot price of pigs fluctuated, with an average price of 14.56 yuan/kg [54]. - **Market Data**: The profit of self - breeding and self - raising pigs increased, while the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening turned negative. The average slaughter weight decreased slightly [55]. - **Market Outlook**: The spot price of pigs is in a shock structure. The short - term futures price may be strong, but there may be a decline risk near the delivery of the 09 contract [56]. Corn - **Spot Price**: The price of corn in Northeast China, North China, and ports remained stable, with a slight increase in the price at Shekou Port [57]. - **Fundamentals**: The inventory of corn in northern four ports and processing enterprises decreased, and the inventory of feed enterprises decreased slightly [57][58]. - **Market Outlook**: The price of corn may decline slightly in the short term due to auction expectations, but the decline is limited. It is recommended to go long on dips in the medium - long term [58]. Sugar - **Market Analysis**: The global sugar supply is expected to be loose, and the price of raw sugar is expected to be in a weak shock. The domestic sugar price is expected to be in a bottom - range shock, with the reference range of 5650 - 5850 [59]. - **Fundamentals**: The sugar production in Brazil increased in May, and the sugar production in Thailand is expected to increase in the 2025/26 season. The import of sugar in China increased in May [59][60]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to short on rebounds [59]. Cotton - **Market Analysis**: The domestic cotton price is expected to be in a range shock, and it is necessary to pay attention to the macro and downstream demand [60]. - **Fundamentals**: The cotton planting progress in the US is slightly behind [61].

商品研究 | 走势评级: | 白糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 受美元走弱油价上涨提振，棉花有所支撑 | 数据速览 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 外盘报价 | | 2025-06-25 | 2025-06-26 | 涨跌幅 | | | 美白糖（美元） | 16.62 | 16.38 | -1.44% | | | 美棉花（美元） | 68.32 | 68.76 | 0.64% | | 现货价格 | | 2025-06-25 | 2025-06-26 | 涨跌幅 | | | 白糖（南宁） | 6070.0 | 6080.0 | 0.16% | | | 白糖（昆明） | 5860.0 | 5890.0 | 0.51% | | | 棉花指数 328 | 3281 | 3280 | 0.55% | | | 棉花（新疆） | ...

Group 1 - The EU is considering lowering tariffs on a range of US imports to quickly reach a trade agreement with President Trump [2] - The US Treasury announced an agreement with G7 allies to protect US companies from certain taxes imposed by other countries, in exchange for removing the "899 retaliatory tax clause" from the "big and beautiful" tax reform [2] - The Federal Reserve Governor Daly indicated that increasing evidence suggests tariffs may not lead to significant or lasting inflation, which could support the case for interest rate cuts in the fall [2] Group 2 - The US real GDP for the first quarter declined at an annualized rate of 0.5%, a drop greater than the expected decline of 0.2%, marking the first contraction in three years [3] - The final value of US personal consumption was significantly revised down to only a 0.5% increase, the weakest quarterly performance since the COVID-19 pandemic began [4] - The core PCE price index in the US was revised up to 3.5%, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures [5] Group 3 - US initial jobless claims decreased by 10,000 to 236,000, below the expected 245,000, while the previous week's continuing claims rose to 1.974 million, the highest level since November 2021 [5] - US durable goods orders for May showed an initial month-on-month increase of 16.4%, the largest increase since July 2014, significantly exceeding the expected 8.5% [5] Group 4 - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 404.41 points to 43,386.84; the S&P 500 increased by 48.86 points to 6,141.02; and the Nasdaq Composite gained 194.36 points to 20,167.91 [6]

Group 1: Economic Indicators and Market Performance - The U.S. dollar index fell below 97 for the first time since March 2022, closing down 0.37% at 97.35 [2] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.2390%, while the 2-year yield was at 3.7280% [2] - U.S. GDP for the first quarter was unexpectedly revised down, while initial jobless claims and personal consumption data were positive for gold prices, which closed at $3327.68 per ounce, down 0.17% [2] - WTI crude oil rose 0.43% to $65.16 per barrel, and Brent crude increased 0.47% to $67.91 per barrel due to rising demand [3] Group 2: Corporate Developments - Xiaomi launched its SUV, YU7, starting at 253,500 yuan, with over 289,000 units reserved within an hour [8] - Honor has taken a significant step towards an A-share IPO by obtaining listing counseling registration from the Shenzhen Securities Regulatory Bureau [8] - The new domestically developed general-purpose processor, Loongson 3C6000, was officially released [8] Group 3: Stock Market Movements - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 0.61% to 24,325.4 points, with a trading volume of 261.729 billion HKD [4] - The A-share market saw the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.22% and the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.48%, with total trading volume exceeding 1.5 trillion yuan [4] - The U.S. stock market saw the Dow Jones rise 0.9%, the Nasdaq increase by 0.97%, and the S&P 500 up by 0.8%, nearing its historical high of 6147.43 [3]

Group 1 - The U.S. Secretary of Commerce, Ross, indicated that a tax legislation proposal is expected to pass in the next 1-2 weeks [1] - There is confidence that consensus can be reached on the state and local tax deduction (SALT) legislation between Congress and the White House [2] - If the tax reform proposed by President Trump is implemented, there will be no need to change tariffs [3]

Group 1 - Several Federal Reserve officials indicated the need for further observation over the next few months to determine if price increases caused by tariffs will not lead to sustained inflation [1] - Officials including Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman suggested that if inflation remains controlled, it could support a rate cut in July [1] - However, nearly 12 policymakers, including Chair Jerome Powell and New York Fed President John Williams, expressed skepticism about this view, indicating they are not ready to cut rates at the next meeting [1] Group 2 - Powell stated during congressional testimony that if not for the uncertainty in future price outlook due to tariffs, the Fed might have already begun to cut rates based solely on declining inflation [1] - Currently, there is no urgency to adjust interest rates according to Powell [1]

美联储理事巴尔：关税可能同时减缓经济增长并导致失业率上升。 ...

美联储理事巴尔：关税将对通胀施加上行压力，可能会带来一定的持续性。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nike is set to report earnings, with expectations of a gain of $0.12/share on $10.67 billion in revenue, while the Whisper number suggests a gain of $0.21/share [3] Financial Performance - Nike's earnings have fluctuated over the past few years, with earnings per share (EPS) of $1.84 in 2020, $3.56 in 2021, $3.75 in 2022, $3.23 in 2023, and projected EPS of $3.95 in 2024, $2.15 in 2025, and $1.85 in 2026 [4] - The stock has a price to earnings (P/E) ratio of 20, which is 0.8x lower than the benchmark S&P 500 [4] Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis - The stock is currently in a long downtrend and trading below its 200-day moving average, indicating a potentially unhealthy market position [6] - The relative strength (RS) rating of the stock is only 14, suggesting very low market performance [6] Tariff Impact - The upcoming earnings report may address the impact of tariffs, as Nike imports its sneakers from abroad, which could significantly affect future guidance [5]

晚间，美股集体高开。 | 43254.26 | No | 20077 34 20077 34 | 6125.10 | રૂ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯指数 +0.63% | | 纳斯达克综合指数 +0.52% | 标普500指数 +0.54% | | | | | | | | 他表示，需要几个月的时间来明确评估关税的影响，其对通胀的影响可能仅限于温和程度。 美国重磅数据公布 此外，他称，特朗普提前宣布鲍威尔的继任者不会对FOMC产生任何影响。 美国商务部经济分析局于当地时间6月26日公布的数据显示，美国2025年第一季度实际国内生产总值 （GDP）经第三次修正后，环比按年率计算萎缩0.5%。 此外，6月26日美国公布了5月商品贸易数据，美国5月商品贸易逆差初值为966亿美元。详细数据显示， 美国5月商品出口环比下降5.2%，创2020年以来最大降幅。 此外，美国上周初请失业金人数23.6万人，预期24.5万人，前值从24.5万人修正为24.6万人；四周均值 24.5万人，前值从24.55万人修正为24.575万人。至6月14日当周续请失业金人数197.4万人， ...