光大期货金融期货日报 光大期货金融期货日报（2025 年 07 月 11 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 股指 | 近期中央财经委召开第六次会议，强调："纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，基 | 震荡 | | | 本要求是"五统一、一开放"。市场对于反内卷背景下企业盈利回升和通胀企 | | | | 稳的预期颇高，但与 2016 年供给侧改个不同的是，本轮"反内卷"政策并未 | | | | 配套类似于 2016 年的增量财政政策，未来对相关题材的影响还需参考中央 | | | | 财政增量政策的转导方式和规模。海外方面，"非农"强劲背景下美联储降息 | | | | 预期稍缓，国内小盘指数受到的提振明显减弱，未来需继续关注美国内部博 | | | | 弈过程。目前指数基本面仍取决于国内经济复苏进程，化债背景下信用收缩、 | | | | 需求不足仍是当前主要矛盾，指数很难突破中枢大幅上涨。另一方面，2025 | | | | 2024 年上半年企业盈利情况较 年有明显改善，在配置型资金托底的背景下， | | | A | 股指数短期同样不会出现大幅下跌的走势。预期 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests going long on industrial products on dips [5] Core Viewpoints - The "anti-involution" trading in the industrial product sector is heating up, with prices of some commodities rebounding due to policy expectations. The market is awaiting the July Politburo meeting for potential further pro - growth policies. The US is implementing new tariff policies on multiple countries, and there are signs of inflation trading both overseas and domestically, but it faces challenges [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - In May, domestic investment data weakened, especially in the real - estate sector, which may drag down fiscal revenue and the entire real - estate chain. Exports were under pressure, while consumption showed resilience. The June manufacturing PMI rebounded, but the economic stabilization foundation needs to be strengthened. "Anti - involution" policy expectations in industries like photovoltaic, lithium - battery, and others are rising [2] - On July 10, the A - share market rose in the afternoon, with the Shanghai Composite Index standing firm at 3500 points, hitting a 9 - month high. Real - estate stocks had a涨停潮, and large - financial stocks strengthened [2] - The US will impose tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on imports from 14 countries starting August 1, and a second batch of tariffs on 8 countries will also take effect on the same day. The US Commerce Secretary plans to talk with China in early August [2][7] - Trump issued an executive order on clean energy and announced a 50% tariff on copper starting August 1, 2025, and investigations in the pharmaceutical and semiconductor sectors will be completed by the end of the month [2] Macro - inflation - Trump signed the "Great Beautiful" tax and spending bill, which may increase US government debt by $3.4 trillion in the next decade, shifting the US from a "tight fiscal expectation + neutral monetary" phase to a "loose - prone" policy phase [3] - Overseas, the core is the currency - led inflation expectation. The US one - year inflation expectation in June dropped from 3.2% to 3.0%, a five - month low. In China, the Central Financial and Economic Commission's meeting has reignited inflation trading, but it faces challenges both overseas and domestically [3] Commodity Sector - Domestically, the black and new - energy metal sectors are most sensitive to the supply - side. Overseas, the energy and non - ferrous sectors benefit significantly from inflation expectations [4] - The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations. The supply shortage in the non - ferrous sector persists. In the energy sector, the short - term geopolitical premium is over, and the medium - term supply is expected to be relatively loose. OPEC + will increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, and OPEC has lowered its global oil demand forecast for the next four years [4] - The EIA expects the 2025 Brent crude oil price to be $69 per barrel. The ninth OPEC International Seminar was held from July 9 - 10 [4] - There are no short - term weather disturbances in the agricultural product sector, so the price fluctuation range is relatively limited [4] Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to go long on industrial products on dips [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the need for a comprehensive approach to address "involution" in various sectors, highlighting the importance of policy coordination and market mechanisms [2][6][65] - The recent meeting of the Central Financial Committee outlines a higher-level and broader coverage for the "anti-involution" initiative, focusing on the integration of local governments, enterprises, and residents [2][65] - The article identifies a significant decline in revenue growth for "involution" industries, dropping from 28.5% in 2021 to -0.4% in 2024, while fixed costs remain rigid, leading to a drastic reduction in average net profit growth to -28.2% [20][19][66] Group 2 - "Involution" is primarily manifested through low-price competition, which compresses supply chain costs, with accounts payable turnover decreasing to 4.6% in 2024, down by 1 percentage point from 2021 [26][31][66] - The internal cost-cutting measures in "involution" industries include a significant reduction in sales expenses, projected at -9.7% for 2024, and a decrease in management expenses growth to 2.6% [31][66] - The profitability of "involution" industries remains under pressure, with a return on assets (ROA) of 2.9% in 2024, a decline of 2.7 percentage points from the 2021 peak, which may hinder long-term industry transformation and development [40][66] Group 3 - To resolve the "involution" dilemma, the focus should be on alleviating supply-demand contradictions and promoting the orderly exit of outdated production capacity, while also restructuring demand expansion dynamics [44][50][66] - Structural transformation can be driven by policy guidance, industry self-discipline, and market mechanisms, encouraging innovation and moving away from price competition [50][66] - Addressing structural unemployment during the transformation process by accelerating the development of the service sector is crucial, as recent trends show a decline in employment in key service industries [56][66]

Group 1 - The Central Economic Committee emphasized the need to deepen the construction of a unified national market and promote high-quality development of the marine economy, focusing on legal governance of low-price competition and enhancing market systems [1][2] - The People's Bank of China proposed to strengthen monetary policy adjustments, maintain liquidity, and guide financial institutions to increase credit support for key sectors [4][5] - The State Council issued a plan to improve the credit repair system, aiming to create a better social credit environment and facilitate the normal operation of restructured enterprises [6][7] Group 2 - The State Council meeting highlighted the importance of increasing technological innovation efforts and integrating technological achievements into production, while also improving public service efficiency through digital technology [8][9] - The National People's Congress Finance and Economic Committee reviewed the 2024 central budget draft, identifying issues in budget management and suggesting reforms to enhance fiscal policy effectiveness [11][12]

Group 1: Overview of "Anti-Involution" Policy - The recent "anti-involution" initiative is characterized by a higher stance, broader coverage, and stronger coordination among local governments, enterprises, and residents[2] - The Central Financial Committee emphasized "lawful governance of low-price disorderly competition" and "orderly exit of backward production capacity" as key directions for the "anti-involution" policy[2] - Revenue growth in "involution" industries dropped from 28.5% in 2021 to -0.4% in 2024, while fixed cost growth remained rigid at 12.3%[2] Group 2: Negative Feedback from Involution - Involution industries experienced a significant decline in average net profit growth to -28.2% in 2024, contrasting with a positive growth of 3.5% in non-involution industries[2] - The accounts payable turnover rate for involution industries decreased to 4.6% in 2024, indicating a shift in cost management strategies[3] - Sales expenses in involution industries fell by 9.7% in 2024, while management expenses grew at a slower rate of 2.6%[3] Group 3: Strategies to Address Involution - To resolve the "involution" dilemma, it is crucial to alleviate supply-demand contradictions and promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity[5] - Structural transformation can be achieved through policy guidance, industry self-discipline, and market mechanisms to encourage supply innovation[5] - Accelerating the development of the service industry is essential to address structural unemployment issues during the transformation process[6]

Group 1: CPI Trends - June CPI shows a month-on-month decrease of -0.1% and a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, ending a four-month streak of negative values[1] - The contribution of new price factors to the June CPI year-on-year growth is 0.1 percentage points, while the tailing factors contribute 0.0 percentage points[1] - The CPI structure reveals that food items decreased by -0.3% year-on-year, while non-food items increased by 0.1% year-on-year[1] Group 2: PPI Trends - June PPI shows a month-on-month decrease of -0.4% and a year-on-year decrease of -3.6%, marking 33 consecutive months of negative values[1] - The contribution of new price factors to the June PPI year-on-year growth is -2.0 percentage points, while tailing factors contribute -1.6 percentage points[3] - The PPI structure indicates that the production materials category decreased by -4.4% year-on-year, while the living materials category decreased by -1.4% year-on-year[3] Group 3: Future Outlook - For Q2 2025, the average year-on-year growth rate of CPI is projected at -0.03%, while PPI is projected at -3.20%, indicating a potential decline in nominal GDP growth compared to Q1[4] - The central government's emphasis on addressing low-price disorder in competition may lead to improvements in product quality and a gradual exit of outdated production capacity[4] - The contribution of tailing factors to PPI is expected to rise, potentially alleviating the extent of PPI declines in the coming months[4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The passing of the "Big Beautiful" tax and spending bill in the US marks a shift from the "tight fiscal expectation + neutral monetary" phase in the first half of the year to a policy phase of "easy to loosen, hard to tighten." In China, the Central Financial and Economic Commission's meeting has reignited market inflation trading [3]. - The inflation trading this round is not smooth. Overseas, the core is the inflation expectation dominated by currency, while in China, it is the supply - side. Further details of production reduction policies are needed to determine the main line of inflation trading [3]. - Attention should be paid to corresponding commodity sectors. Domestically, the black and new - energy metal sectors are most sensitive to the supply - side. Overseas, the energy and non - ferrous sectors benefit significantly from inflation expectations [4]. - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate long positions in industrial products on dips [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In July, a Politburo meeting in China is awaited. In May, domestic investment data weakened, especially in the real estate sector, which may drag down fiscal revenue and the entire real - estate chain. Exports were also under pressure, while consumption showed resilience. China's June manufacturing PMI rebounded, and the CPI turned positive year - on - year, with the core CPI rising 0.7% year - on - year, driven by industrial consumer goods. The PPI decreased 3.6% year - on - year in June, with the decline widening by 0.3 percentage points [2]. - Since July, policies to address low - price and disorderly competition in industries such as photovoltaics, lithium batteries, automobiles, and steel are expected to heat up, and some commodity prices have recovered. The low base of PPI in the second half of 2024 may boost the year - on - year PPI reading in the second half of this year [2]. - The US will impose tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on imports from 14 countries including Japan and South Korea starting from August 1. The US and Japan will continue tariff negotiations, and the EU aims to reach a trade agreement with the US by August 1. The US Commerce Secretary plans to talk with China in early August [2]. Macro - inflation Trading - The "Big Beautiful" tax and spending bill in the US may increase the US government's debt by $3.4 trillion in the next decade, leading to a shift in US policies. In China, the Central Financial and Economic Commission's meeting has re - heated market inflation trading [3]. - Overseas, the US one - year inflation expectation in June dropped from 3.2% to 3.0%, a five - month low. However, the Fed's path to restarting easing is not smooth, and although the "Big Beautiful" bill has passed, Treasury bond issuance will still absorb market liquidity [3]. - In China, the core of inflation trading is on the supply - side. The 2025 Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting is different from the 2015 one, and more details of production reduction policies are needed to determine the main line of inflation trading [3]. Commodity Sectors - Domestically, the black and new - energy metal sectors are most sensitive to the supply - side. Overseas, the energy and non - ferrous sectors benefit significantly from inflation expectations [4]. - The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations. The supply shortage in the non - ferrous sector remains unresolved. In the energy sector, the short - term geopolitical premium has ended, and the medium - term supply is expected to be relatively loose. OPEC+ will increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, higher than expected [4]. - The EIA expects the Brent crude oil price to be $69 per barrel in 2025 (previously $66). The price of agricultural products has limited fluctuation in the short term due to the absence of weather disturbances [4]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate long positions in industrial products on dips [5]. Important News - The Chinese government supports enterprises in stabilizing employment positions, including expanding the scope of special loans for stabilizing and expanding employment, increasing the proportion of unemployment insurance refunds for enterprises, and allowing enterprises in difficulty to apply for deferred payment of social insurance premiums [7]. - In June, China's CPI turned positive year - on - year after four consecutive months of decline, mainly due to the recovery of industrial consumer goods prices. The year - on - year decline of PPI widened in June, but prices in some industries are showing signs of stabilization and recovery [7]. - Trump has determined that tariffs will be implemented on August 1, 2025. The US and Japan will continue tariff negotiations, and the EU aims to reach a trade agreement with the US by August 1. The US plans to talk with China in early August [2][7]. - COMEX copper futures maintained a 9.6% increase, and Trump intends to impose a 50% tariff on copper. The investigation of the pharmaceutical and semiconductor sectors will be completed by the end of the month [7]. - The US one - year inflation expectation in June dropped from 3.2% to 3.0%, a five - month low, and the three - year inflation expectation remained stable at 3% [7]. - US API crude oil inventories increased by more than 700,000 barrels last week. The EIA expects the Brent crude oil price to be $69 per barrel in 2025 and $58 per barrel in 2026 [7]. - Trump has approved the shipment of more defensive weapons to Ukraine and is considering further sanctions against Russia. He is also considering supporting a new bill for severe sanctions against Russia [7][8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Stock Index**: The A-share market is expected to continue to fluctuate. The index fundamentals depend on the domestic economic recovery process. Although the corporate profit situation in the first half of 2025 has improved significantly compared to 2024, and there is support from allocation funds, the index is difficult to break through the central level and rise significantly due to credit contraction and insufficient demand under the background of debt resolution. On the other hand, it will not experience a sharp decline in the short term [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market is in an environment with loose funds, stable economy, and low short-term interest rate cut expectations. With insufficient upward and downward momentum, it is expected to continue the fluctuating trend in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Stock Index**: On July 9, 2025, the A-share market fluctuated and closed down. The Wind All A index fell 0.18% with a trading volume of 1.53 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000, CSI 500, SSE 50, and SSE 300 indices also declined. The media sector led the rise, while the non-ferrous metals sector corrected. The recent Central Financial and Economic Commission emphasized the construction of a unified national market, but the impact on related themes depends on the transfer mode and scale of central fiscal incremental policies. Overseas, the Fed's interest rate cut expectation has slowed down, and the boost to domestic small-cap indices has weakened. The fundamentals of the index depend on the domestic economic recovery process, and it is expected to fluctuate [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On July 9, 2025, treasury bond futures closed with gains. The central bank conducted 755 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations with a stable interest rate of 1.4%. The net withdrawal of funds was 230 billion yuan. The overall capital situation was loose, and the price index remained stable. The bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [1][2]. 3.2 Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On July 9, 2025, compared with the previous day, the IH, IF, IC, and IM contracts all declined, with declines of -0.14%, -0.15%, -0.47%, and -0.35% respectively [3]. - **Stock Indices**: The SSE 50, SSE 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices also declined, with declines of -0.26%, -0.18%, -0.41%, and -0.27% respectively [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The TS, TF, T, and TL contracts all rose, with increases of 0.00%, 0.02%, 0.03%, and 0.14% respectively [3]. 3.3 Market News - From 2021 to 2024, China's economy maintained an average annual growth rate of 5.5%. The average contribution rate of domestic demand to economic growth was 86.4%, and the average contribution rate of final consumption to economic growth reached 56.2%, 8.6 percentage points higher than that during the 13th Five-Year Plan period [4]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report presents the trend charts of the main contracts and the basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM [6][7][9]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report shows the trend charts of the main contracts, spot bond yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates of treasury bond futures [13][15][17]. - **Exchange Rates**: The report provides the trend charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, and exchange rates of other currency pairs [20][21][22]

Inflation Data - June CPI year-on-year growth rate is 0.1%, an improvement from the previous value of -0.1%, exceeding market expectations of 0%[3] - June PPI year-on-year growth rate recorded at -3.6%, lower than market expectations of -3.2%[7] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.7% year-on-year, marking a 14-month high[5] Price Movements - Industrial consumer goods prices saw a narrowing decline from -1.0% in May to -0.5% in June, contributing less to CPI decline by approximately 0.18 percentage points[3] - Gasoline prices shifted from a 3.8% decline to a 0.4% increase in June, influenced by international oil price movements[4] - Platinum jewelry prices surged by 12.6% in June, the largest monthly increase in nearly a decade[3] Economic Outlook - The market is expected to exhibit a dual bull structure in stocks and bonds in the second half of the year, supported by improving US-China trade relations and risk-averse funds[2] - Fixed income yields, particularly the 10-year government bond rate, are projected to decline to around 1.5% amid low domestic demand stimulus probability[2] Consumer Demand - Consumer demand is in a critical recovery phase, with incremental counter-cyclical policies expected to enhance demand and gradually improve CPI levels[7] - The demand for high-quality living is increasing, leading to price recoveries in related industries[9]

Group 1: CPI Trends - In June, China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.1% year-on-year, ending a four-month decline [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.7% year-on-year, marking a 14-month high [1][3] - The improvement in CPI indicates a positive signal of demand recovery in the market [1][3] Group 2: Factors Influencing CPI - The rise in CPI was supported by a rebound in industrial consumer goods prices, with the year-on-year decline narrowing from 1.0% to 0.5% [2] - International commodity price fluctuations contributed to significant increases in gold and platinum jewelry prices, which rose by 39.2% and 15.9% respectively, impacting CPI positively [2] - The increase in international oil prices, influenced by geopolitical tensions and seasonal demand, also played a role in lifting domestic energy prices [2][5] Group 3: Core CPI and Consumer Goods - Core CPI has shown a continuous increase for four months, rising from -0.1% in February to 0.7% in June [3] - Prices of durable consumer goods, such as entertainment products and household textiles, increased by 2.0% year-on-year [3] - The decline in automobile prices has slowed, with fuel and new energy vehicles seeing the smallest price drops in nearly two and a half years [3] Group 4: Food Prices and Their Impact - Food prices decreased by 0.3% year-on-year in June, with the decline narrowing compared to the previous month [4] - Fresh fruit prices rose by 6.1%, contributing approximately 0.12 percentage points to the CPI increase [4] - The price of beef turned positive after 28 months of decline, while pork prices fell by 8.5%, marking a shift after previous increases [4] Group 5: PPI Trends and Future Outlook - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.6% year-on-year, indicating ongoing pressure in the industrial sector [4][5] - Factors such as high temperatures and increased rainfall have affected construction progress, contributing to a decline in raw material prices [5] - Analysts expect that with continued macroeconomic policy support, domestic prices may gradually recover, leading to a mild rebound in CPI and a narrowing of PPI declines [6]