机构：方正证券 研究员：周超泽/许睿 事件：2025 年7 月28 日，恒瑞与GSK 达成协议，将HRS-9821 项目的全球独家权利（不包括中国大 陆、香港特别行政区、澳门特别行政区及台湾地区）和至多11 个项目的全球独家许可的独家选择权 （不包括中国大陆、香港特别行政区、澳门特别行政区及台湾地区）有偿许可给GSK。GSK 将向恒瑞 支付5 亿美元的首付款。双方将共同开发至多12 款创新药物。如果所有项目均获得行使选择权且所有里 程碑均已实现，恒瑞将有资格获得未来基于成功开发、注册和销售里程碑付款的潜在总金额约120 亿美 元。 点评： 盈利预测：我们预计公司2025-2027 年营业总收入313.53/358.95/413.1亿元，同比增长 12.04%/14.49%/15.09%;归母净利润为68.7/80.94/98.94亿元，对应PE 为59.94/50.88/41.62 倍，维持"强烈 推荐"评级。 风险提示：BD 进展不及预期风险、临床进展不及预期风险、产品商业化不及预期风险，政策变动风险 等。 1） HRS-9821 是恒瑞首个获国际巨头高额引进的呼吸管线，125 亿美元潜在总交易额创中国创新 ...

根据该协议的条款，集团同意授予Madrigal在全球范围内开发、生产及商业化SYH2086的独家授权，同 时保留集团在中国开发和销售其他口服小分子GLP-1受体激动剂产品的权益。集团有权收取最高可达 20.75亿美元的总代价，包括1.2亿美元的预付款、最高可达19.55亿美元的潜在开发、监管及商业里程碑 付款，以及基于SYH2086年度净销售额的高达双位数销售提成。 格隆汇7月30日丨石药集团(01093.HK)发布公告，集团已与Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc.("Madrigal")就 集团的口服小分子激活胰高血糖素样肽-1("GLP-1")受体激动剂SYH2086在全球的开发、生产及商业化 订立独家授权协议。 ...

截至29日收盘数据显示，年内6只ETF涨幅超100%，其中港股通创新药ETF今年以来涨107.18%，位列年内涨幅榜第一。 | 其余代码 | 草金周称 | 最新净值(元) | 目增长率(%) | 最新净值日期 | 区间张跌幅(%) 01.02-07.29 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 159570 SZ | 汇添富国证港股通创新药etf | 1.9899 | 4.33 | 20250729 | 107.18 | | 520700 SH | 万家中证潜股通创新药etf | 1.8397 | 4 59 | 20250729 | 106.52 | | 520500 SH | 恒生新药 | 2.0370 | 4.36 | 20250729 | 106.40 | | 159567 SZ | 港股创新药etf | 1.9654 | 4.25 | 20250729 | 106.18 | | 513120 SH | 广发中证香港创新药(qdii-etf) | 1.4883 | 4 58 | 20250729 | 105.38 | | 513780 SH | 景顺长城中证潜 ...

Core Insights - Heng Rui Medicine has reached an agreement with GSK to grant global exclusive rights for the HRS-9821 project and up to 11 additional projects, excluding mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan [1] - GSK will pay Heng Rui a $500 million upfront payment, and both companies will jointly develop up to 12 innovative drugs [1] - If all projects are exercised and all milestones are achieved, Heng Rui could receive potential milestone payments totaling approximately $12 billion based on successful development, registration, and sales [1] - HRS-9821 is Heng Rui's first respiratory pipeline project introduced by an international giant, with a total potential transaction value of $12.5 billion, setting a record for Chinese innovative drugs going abroad and reaffirming the potential of the PDE3/4 target [1] - The report maintains a "strong buy" rating for Heng Rui Medicine [1]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a divergence with the Shanghai Composite Index stabilizing above 3600 points, but individual stocks showed weakness, indicating underlying complexities in market dynamics [1] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is anticipated to have significant implications for global capital markets, with a high probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged [3] Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve's meeting is expected to reveal potential dissenting votes advocating for a 25 basis point rate cut, which would be a rare occurrence since 1993 [3] - Market participants are closely monitoring Chairman Powell's statements for any dovish signals regarding a potential rate cut in September, particularly concerning economic risks and inflation [3] External Market Influences - U.S. stock indices experienced a pullback, with the Dow Jones down 0.46%, while European markets, particularly the German DAX, rose by 1.03% due to easing trade tensions [3] - The extension of a 24% reciprocal tariff suspension between China and the U.S. and the easing of high-end chip export restrictions are seen as positive developments for the semiconductor and AI sectors [3] A-share Market Dynamics - Northbound capital saw a net inflow of 1.82 billion yuan, reversing six consecutive days of net selling, with significant investments in the semiconductor and pharmaceutical sectors, particularly in innovative drug companies [4] - There is a noticeable divergence in main capital flows, with some sectors like real estate and biopharmaceuticals seeing increased investment, while automotive and machinery sectors faced sell-offs due to disappointing consumer recovery [4] Technical Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index's stability above 3600 points is accompanied by a lack of strong buying momentum, as indicated by a low trading volume of 73.5 billion yuan in the first half hour [4] - The ChiNext Index showed a strong performance, breaking through 2400 points, driven by gains in the pharmaceutical and technology sectors [4] Policy Developments - A significant press conference is scheduled to announce new childcare subsidies and fertility support measures, which could provide a short-term boost to the maternal and educational consumption sectors [4] - Long-term investors are encouraged to focus on sectors with sustained policy benefits, such as innovative drugs and domestic AI computing capabilities [4] Investment Strategies - Short-term market fluctuations are expected to continue around the 3600-point mark, with three key areas of focus: semiconductor components, innovative drugs, and military industry due to rising expectations from the upcoming Zhuhai Airshow [5] - Long-term investors are advised to remain focused on the overarching themes of trade easing and corporate profit growth, regardless of short-term market volatility [5]

为持续向投资者普及ETF基础知识，招商证券携手十大基金公司，联合全景网共同举办2025年招商证 券"招财杯"ETF实盘大赛系列直播，旨在帮助投资者提升资产配置与风险管理能力，促进ETF市场的健 康发展。 2025年7月24日，"招财杯"ETF实盘大赛系列直播邀请到了银华基金指数投资分析师辛迪，一起探讨 《创新药板块崛起，后市还有哪些机会？》。 辛迪表示，经过近几年的快速发展，我国已成为全球创新药领域的重要力量，尤其在研发管线规模、靶 点覆盖及国际化合作方面表现突出，而众多创新药企也将开始进入成果兑现阶段，中国创新药行业或正 在进入厚积薄发的"收获期"。 "总体而言，政策、资本、产业因素共振，中国创新药行业长期成长逻辑坚实。"辛迪进一步表示，"我 认为创新药估值仍有非常充足的上扬空间。" 部分企业业绩超预期，创新药或步入"收获期" 辛迪：从基本面来看，我们认为创新药仍是当前医药板块中产业趋势最为明确且具备未来成长空间的子 行业，全年维度创新药作为医药板块的投资主线不会变化，创新药大时代已然到来。此外，7月中报业 绩预告/快报陆续披露，GLP-1景气赛道、困境反转的原料药等表现亮眼，从半年报情况看，部分企业 H1 ...

本报记者陈红 7月28日，江苏恒瑞医药股份有限公司（以下简称"恒瑞医药"）发布公告称，公司与GlaxoSmithKline Intellectual Property（No.3）Limited和GlaxoSmithKline Intellectual Property（No.4）Limited公司（以下统 称"GSK"）达成协议，将HRS-9821项目的全球独家权利（不包括中国大陆、香港特别行政区、澳门特 别行政区及台湾地区）和至多11个项目的全球独家许可的独家选择权（不包括中国大陆、香港特别行政 区、澳门特别行政区及台湾地区）有偿许可给GSK。 根据公告，GSK将向恒瑞医药支付5亿美元首付款。若所有项目均获选择权行使且所有里程碑均达成， 恒瑞医药有望获得基于成功开发、注册和销售的里程碑付款，潜在总金额约120亿美元。此外，恒瑞医 药还将按协议收取分梯度的授权区域销售提成。 受此消息影响，7月28日，恒瑞医药以涨停收盘，报62.04元/股，换手率2.56%，总市值达4118亿元。 （文章来源：证券日报） 此次合作的核心资产HRS-9821是一款处于临床开发阶段的PDE3/4抑制剂，用于慢性阻塞性肺病 （COP ...

Core Viewpoint - The innovative drug sector is experiencing a significant surge driven by strong earnings, overseas orders, and favorable policies [2][3][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - On July 29, both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks in the innovative drug sector saw substantial gains, with multiple stocks rising over 10% [2][4][5]. - Notable performers included Yaoshan Technology, Tigermed, and WuXi Biologics, all of which saw significant increases [4]. Group 2: Key Drivers - **Earnings Growth**: WuXi Biologics reported a revenue of 20.799 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 20.64%, and a net profit of 8.561 billion yuan, up 101.92% year-on-year. The company raised its full-year revenue forecast to between 42.5 billion and 43.5 billion yuan [6]. - **International Expansion**: Heng Rui Medicine announced a partnership with GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), which includes a $500 million upfront payment and potential milestone payments totaling around $12 billion for 12 projects in respiratory diseases, oncology, and autoimmune diseases [6]. - **Policy Support**: The National Healthcare Security Administration held discussions to support the high-quality development of innovative drugs, emphasizing the use of healthcare data to support drug research and development [7][8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the innovative drug sector is in a phase of dual support from policy and fundamentals, indicating a potential for value re-evaluation [10]. - The current valuation of the innovative drug sector remains attractive compared to major pharmaceutical companies in the U.S., with both domestic and foreign investments expected to increase [11][12]. - The sector is seen as a key investment theme for the year, with a focus on high-quality companies and emerging sub-sectors such as CRO&CDMO and specialty raw materials [12][13].

Core Insights - The innovative drug sector in both Hong Kong and A-shares continues to show strong momentum, with notable gains in stocks such as WuXi AppTec and others [1] - WuXi AppTec reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first half of the year, indicating robust financial performance [1] - The market is actively trading with ETFs related to the biotech sector reaching new highs, reflecting investor confidence [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market saw WuXi AppTec leading with over a 10% increase, followed by other companies like Sihuan Pharmaceutical and Tigermed [1] - In the A-share market, Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical hit the daily limit, while Tigermed rose over 10% [1] - The Hang Seng Biotechnology ETF (159615) increased nearly 4%, reaching a record high since its launch, while the Southern Innovative Drug ETF (159858) rose over 3% [1] Group 2: Company Financials - WuXi AppTec reported a revenue of 20.799 billion yuan for the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 20.64% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 8.56 billion yuan, showing a remarkable growth of 101.92% [1] - In Q2, the company achieved a revenue of 11.145 billion yuan, marking the first time it surpassed the 10 billion yuan mark in that quarter, with a net profit of 4.889 billion yuan, a historical high for the same period [1] Group 3: Industry Outlook - Aijian Securities expressed optimism about the ongoing heat in the innovative drug sector and the structural market trends, particularly regarding the international expansion of Chinese innovative drugs [1] - The focus is on key areas such as Antibody-Drug Conjugates (ADC) and bispecific antibodies, with an emphasis on tracking industry catalysts and business development progress [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the strong performance of the Hong Kong stock market, particularly in the innovative pharmaceutical sector, with significant gains in related stocks and ETFs [1][2] - The Hong Kong Innovation Drug 50 ETF (513780) has seen a remarkable increase of 100% year-to-date, indicating robust investor interest and confidence in the sector [1] - WuXi AppTec reported a substantial revenue of 20.64% growth year-on-year, reaching 20.799 billion yuan, and a net profit increase of 101.92%, amounting to 8.561 billion yuan, marking a significant milestone of over 10 billion yuan in quarterly revenue for the first time [1] Group 2 - The top ten constituents of the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug Index account for 69.65% of the index, including high-quality A-share companies like Innovent Biologics and Stone Pharmaceutical [2] - The innovative drug sector in China is at a new historical starting point, with domestic companies enhancing their competitiveness and expanding overseas, supported by favorable policies [2] - The industry is experiencing rapid revenue growth and is transitioning into a new profit-driven cycle, presenting investment opportunities in high-quality, undervalued companies within the sector [1][2]