晨会纪要 证券研究报告 2025 年 11 月 17 日 核心结论 分析师 【基金】行业主题基金专题研究（六）-主动篇：先进制造主题基金研究框 架及产品优选 本文构建主动型先进制造主题基金池。根据主动权益基金对制造行业的配 置、基金与先进制造概念的相关系数等标签划分，细分为均衡型/专注单一 赛道型制造基金、机器人/军工/汽车/新能源/智能驾驶/电池等概念主题基金。 综合定量定性指标、当下投资关注度，建议关注：1）机器人主题：永赢先 进制造智选、鹏华碳中和、平安先进制造、中航趋势领航等；2）军工主题： 长信国防军工、华夏军工安全、永赢高端装备智选等。 【证券Ⅱ】证券行业 2026 年度策略：步步向上，欣欣向荣 我们认为经济定调积极下资本市场上升趋势仍在，券商板块仍是年内不可多 得的相对低估+业绩同比高增的细分资产。在自营相对难以预测、叠加增量 资金持续入市带动 ADT 中枢高企下，我们认为当前经纪主线是不错的选择， 推荐国泰海通、华泰证券、东方证券、国信证券、广发证券，建议关注方正 证券；此外，推荐受益于权益市场活跃的九方智投控股、有望通过换股吸收 大智慧实现增长的湘财股份、持续受益于港股 IPO 回暖的中金公 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a rebound with strong performance in sectors like consumer goods, food and beverage, and oil, while sectors such as communication and electronics are under pressure. The "20CM New Species" Sci-Tech Innovation Drug ETF Huatai (589120) has seen a significant inflow of funds, accumulating over 190 million yuan in nine consecutive days, with a total scale exceeding 500 million yuan [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share market is showing a mixed trend, with certain sectors like consumer goods and food and beverage performing strongly, while others like communication and electronics are facing challenges [1]. - The "20CM New Species" Sci-Tech Innovation Drug ETF Huatai (589120) has risen over 1% amid this market fluctuation, indicating investor interest in innovative drug sectors [1]. Group 2: Fund Inflows and Performance - The Sci-Tech Innovation Drug ETF Huatai (589120) has attracted over 190 million yuan in funds over the past nine days, reflecting strong investor confidence in the innovative drug sector [1]. - The ETF's latest scale has surpassed 500 million yuan, showcasing its growing popularity among investors [1]. Group 3: Company-Specific Developments - BeiGene reported a 41% year-on-year increase in third-quarter revenue, reaching 1.41 billion USD, primarily driven by strong sales of its drug, Zebrutinib [3]. - Several component stocks of the ETF, such as Teva Biopharma and Zai Lab, have shown positive performance, with Teva Biopharma rising over 4% [3][4]. Group 4: Policy and Market Dynamics - The National Medical Insurance Administration is conducting negotiations for the medical insurance drug catalog, with 120 companies participating, indicating a significant policy shift aimed at enhancing drug accessibility [5][6]. - The introduction of a dual catalog negotiation system allows pharmaceutical companies more strategic options, potentially leading to better market access for innovative drugs [6][7]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The innovative drug sector is expected to continue thriving, supported by favorable policies and increasing international collaboration, with projections indicating substantial market growth by 2030 [8]. - The focus on innovative drugs, particularly in the context of the upcoming medical insurance negotiations, is likely to enhance the market landscape for these products [8].

Group 1: Macro and Strategy - The report discusses the integration of AI in quantitative investment, highlighting the transition from Transformer models to Agent systems, which enhances decision-making processes in investment strategies [10][11][12] Group 2: Industry and Company Insights - The North Exchange's October report indicates a decrease in trading activity, with a total market value of 920.978 billion yuan and a circulation market value of 571.848 billion yuan, reflecting increases of 6.0% and 5.8% respectively [13][14] - The North Exchange's trading volume and amount for October were 154.58 billion shares and 365.334 billion yuan, showing a decrease of 40.6% and 40.7% respectively compared to the previous month [14] - The North Exchange's PE-TTM ratio is 49.53, placing it in the 95.25th percentile over the past two years, while the PB-MRQ is 10.27, in the 97.52nd percentile [14] - The report notes a rebound in the North Exchange indices, with the North 50 and North Specialized New Index rising by 3.54% and 2.28% respectively in October [15] - The report highlights the performance of various sectors, with significant gains in transportation, construction materials, household appliances, pharmaceutical biology, and machinery equipment [15] - The report on the public utility and environmental protection sector indicates a 4.47% increase in the public utility index and a 2.58% increase in the environmental protection index for October [21] - The report emphasizes the support from the Ministry of Commerce for green trade initiatives, particularly in promoting the use of renewable energy in international shipping [22] - The insurance sector report shows a 33.5% year-on-year increase in net profit for listed insurance companies, driven by a recovery in capital markets and strong performance in long-term interest rates [26][28] - The internet industry report notes a mixed performance among internet stocks, with significant capital expenditures and a focus on ROI as companies adapt to AI-driven changes [29][31] - The report on Oriental Electric indicates a 13% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with a total revenue of 55.52 billion yuan [32][34] - The report on Pinggao Electric highlights a 14.62% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first three quarters, with a focus on expanding market share and enhancing product capabilities [36][37] - The report on Gujia Home indicates a resilient performance with an 8.8% increase in revenue year-to-date, driven by both domestic and international trade [39][40]

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月04日 特宝生物（688278.SH） 优于大市 核心产品派格宾慢乙肝功能性治愈适应症获批 资料来源：Wind、国信证券经济研究所预测 注：摊薄每股收益按最新总股本计算 核心观点 公司研究·财报点评 医药生物·生物制品 证券分析师：马千里 证券分析师：陈曦炳 S0980521070001 S0980521120001 三季度营收维持环比双位数增长。2025 年前三季度，公司实现营收 24.80 亿元（+26.9%），归母净利润 6.66 亿元（+20.2%）。 分季度看，2025Q1/Q2/Q3 分别实现营收 6.73/8.37/9.69 亿元（分别同 比+23.5%/+29.9%/+26.7%，Q2/Q3 分别环比+24.3%/+15.7%）,归母净 利润 1.82/2.46/2.38 亿元（分别同比+41.4%/+40.0%/-4.6%，Q2/Q3 分 别环比+34.9%/-3.1%）。 核心产品派格宾慢乙肝功能性治愈适应症获批。2025 年 10 月 13 日，公司 聚乙二醇干扰素α-2b 注射液（商品名：派格宾）获得国家药监局批准联合 核苷（酸）类似物用于成人慢性乙型 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 92.05 CNY, based on a 35x PE valuation for 2025 [3][6]. Core Insights - The company's revenue continues to grow significantly, with a 26.9% year-on-year increase in the first three quarters of 2025, reaching 2.48 billion CNY, while the net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 20.2% to 670 million CNY [9]. - The approval of a new indication for the core product, Paigebin, is expected to enhance its market penetration, as it is now recognized as a key drug for achieving functional cure in chronic hepatitis B patients [9]. - The consolidation of Jiutian Cayman into the company's financials has led to a slight increase in R&D and sales expenses, impacting profitability in the short term [9]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 3.63 billion CNY, 4.88 billion CNY, and 6.23 billion CNY, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 29.0%, 34.3%, and 27.7% [5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 1.07 billion CNY in 2025, with a growth rate of 29.6% [5]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to remain stable around 93.3% to 93.7% over the forecast period [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 92.05 CNY based on a 35x PE valuation for 2025 [3][6]. Core Insights - The company's revenue continues to grow significantly, driven by the clinical promotion of its core product, Paigebin, which has seen a 26.9% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 [9]. - Paigebin has received approval for a new indication, which is expected to enhance its market penetration and accelerate growth [9]. - The integration of Jiutian Cayman into the company's financials has led to an increase in R&D and sales expenses, impacting profitability [9]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 3,633 million CNY, 4,878 million CNY, and 6,232 million CNY, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 29.0%, 34.3%, and 27.7% [5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 1,072 million CNY in 2025, reflecting a 29.6% year-on-year growth [5]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to remain stable around 93.3% to 93.7% over the forecast period [5].

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Financial Management - The central bank is gradually implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, with macro-prudential management continuously improving, as evidenced by the recent financial forum where the central bank governor emphasized the importance of debt market operations [6][8] - The central bank's net purchase of 700 billion yuan in government bonds from October to December 2024 is aimed at alleviating supply-side pressures, indicating a mature timing for the resumption of bond trading [6][7] - The construction of a comprehensive macro-prudential management system is being accelerated to prevent and resolve financial risks, enhancing the ability to manage banking asset quality concerns [8] Group 2: Capital Market Reforms - The capital market is focusing on deepening investment and financing reforms while enhancing protections for small and medium investors, as highlighted in a recent speech by the chairman of the securities regulatory commission [11][12] - The multi-tiered capital market system is being reinforced, with specific reforms aimed at the growth board and the North Exchange to better serve emerging industries and technologies [13][14] - The introduction of a refinancing framework is expected to streamline the process for quality companies, allowing them to issue securities in a more flexible manner [15] Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - Huayang Group reported Q3 2025 revenue of 3.48 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31%, driven by strong performance in automotive electronics and precision die-casting [19][20] - Hengli Hydraulic achieved a revenue of 7.79 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a 12.31% year-on-year growth, with a notable recovery in the excavator industry [23][24] - Hengli Petrochemical's Q3 net profit increased by 81.47% year-on-year, despite a revenue decline, due to effective cost management and improved gross margins [27][28] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Investment recommendations for Huayang Group suggest a clear growth path driven by automotive electronics and precision die-casting, with adjusted profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [22] - Hengli Hydraulic is positioned as a leader in the hydraulic components market, with expected net profits of 2.796 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a strong recovery in the excavator sector [25] - Hengli Petrochemical is expected to benefit from a new cycle in the refining industry, with a maintained "buy" rating based on its robust dividend policy and market position [29]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][6] Core Insights - The company has received approval for a new indication for its product Pegasys, which is expected to enhance its market position in treating chronic hepatitis B [6] - The commercialization of the long-acting growth hormone (Yipeisheng) is accelerating, with significant market potential as it is the second product of its kind approved in China [6] - The company is projected to achieve substantial revenue growth, with expected revenues of 37.34 billion yuan, 49.60 billion yuan, and 63.64 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2022 was 1,527 million yuan, with a projected increase to 2,100 million yuan in 2023, and further growth to 3,734 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 34.86% in 2022 and 37.55% in 2023 [3][7] - Net profit attributable to the parent company was 287 million yuan in 2022, expected to rise to 555 million yuan in 2023, and reach 1,092 million yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 58.40% in 2022 and 93.52% in 2023 [3][7] - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.71 yuan in 2022 to 2.68 yuan in 2025, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios decreasing from 100.63 in 2022 to 26.45 in 2025 [3][7] Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The approval of Pegasys for a new indication strengthens the company's position in the hepatitis treatment market, potentially increasing its market share [6] - The long-acting growth hormone Yipeisheng is expected to capture significant market share due to its innovative formulation and lower dosing requirements compared to competitors [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has received approval for a new indication for its product, Pegbivac, for the treatment of chronic hepatitis B, which is expected to enhance market penetration [6][8] - The company reported a revenue of 2.48 billion yuan for Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 26.85%, and a net profit of 666 million yuan, up 20.21% year-on-year [5] - The company is focusing on expanding its product portfolio and enhancing its market presence in the hepatitis field, supported by strong clinical evidence for its treatments [10] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 969 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.68%, while the net profit was 238 million yuan, a decrease of 4.63% year-on-year [5] - The overall gross margin for the first three quarters was 92.56%, a decrease of 0.80 percentage points year-on-year, with a period expense ratio of 61.46%, an increase of 2.14 percentage points year-on-year [7] Product Development - Pegbivac has been approved for a new indication for chronic hepatitis B, based on clinical trial results showing a 31.4% clinical cure rate among patients [8] - The long-acting growth hormone, Yipei Sheng, has been approved for use in children with growth hormone deficiency and is expected to enter the national medical insurance directory, enhancing patient accessibility [9] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are 3.66 billion, 4.78 billion, and 6.06 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 30.0%, 30.7%, and 26.7% [10] - The net profit projections for the same period are 1.11 billion, 1.56 billion, and 2.05 billion yuan, with growth rates of 34.1%, 40.6%, and 31.5% respectively [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 2.48 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 26.85%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 666 million yuan, up 20.21% year-on-year [3] - In Q3 alone, the company reported a revenue of 969 million yuan, a 26.7% increase year-on-year, but the net profit decreased by 4.6% to 238 million yuan, primarily due to increased sales expenses following the launch of the growth hormone product [3] - The approval of new indications for the drug Paigebin and the rapid promotion of the growth hormone product Yipei are expected to drive future growth for the company [3] Financial Performance Summary - For 2025, the company is projected to achieve a net profit of 968 million yuan, with a growth rate of 17%. The expected revenue for 2025 is 3.71 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 31.6% [4][6] - The gross profit margin for Q3 was 91.9%, down 1.44 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 24.59%, down 8.07 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The sales expense ratio increased to 42.34%, up 5.97 percentage points year-on-year, indicating higher costs associated with the new product launch [3] Financial Projections - The company’s revenue is expected to grow from 2.82 billion yuan in 2024 to 6.73 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits increasing from 828 million yuan to 1.75 billion yuan over the same period [4][5] - The projected PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 30.51, 22.44, and 16.89 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation trend [4][6]