for more on the state of the economy and the the murky macro picture here. We are joined by Vincent Reinhardt, BNY investments chief economist, former Fed economist, do do you expect them to not cut in December, Vince, at this point. >> Oh, I I think they'll cut.And I think your conversation just now was exactly right. And you asked the right question, as did as did, Carl. Uh the answer, what has changed over the last couple months.Not a whole lot. We don't have a lot of data to support a a a changed outloo ...

are getting some breaking news out of the Fed. For that, let's get to Steve Leeman. Hey, Steve. >> Hey, Carl.Yeah, timing is everything. You ask about Schmidt. We got Schmidt here, Kansas City Fed President, uh, who desented at the last meeting, saying monetary policy is modestly restrictive, and that, he says, is where it should be.He suggests in the speech he's about to give his intention to oppose additional cuts again in December. Says he mind could change, but right now, that's the way he's leaning. cu ...

Welcome back to Morning Trade Live. It's time now for the big picture. Let's welcome in Colin Martin, head of fixed income research and strategy, Schwab Center for Financial Research.So, we're seeing a bit of a sell-off here and a few moving parts. I'm just looking at the latest Fed commentary actually coming out of Jeffrey Schmid, which has been an interesting dot there, particularly with regards to not agreeing with the rate cut that we saw the previous month. and then once again saying that uh he's unsur ...

Market Overview - The reopening of the government led to a market selloff, with the Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 down 2.3% and 2.8% respectively, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.6% [2] - The current market environment is characterized by a reset in asset valuations rather than panic, as bond prices remained stable despite falling equities and rising volatility [3][4] Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve's uncertainty regarding interest rate cuts has contributed to a loss of confidence, with the probability of a rate cut in December now at 50% [4] - Recent earnings growth of approximately 13% year-over-year has not been sufficient to maintain elevated valuations, leading to a market adjustment [4] Cryptocurrency Impact - Bitcoin prices fell below the critical support level of $100K, trading down to $95K, which may raise broader investor concerns [5] Artificial Intelligence Investments - Companies investing heavily in AI are yet to demonstrate returns on those investments, with the focus primarily on capital expenditures rather than profitability [6] Employment and Consumer Sentiment - Notable layoffs, including Verizon's announcement of 15,000 to 20,000 job cuts, indicate a weakening employment situation, compounded by low consumer sentiment [7] Upcoming Market Events - Key earnings reports from Walmart and Target will provide insights into the health of the overall economy, particularly regarding the holiday season [9] - The release of minutes from the last Federal Reserve meeting is anticipated to shed light on internal debates and monetary policy discussions [9] Investment Opportunities - Stocks that have experienced significant pullbacks may present opportunities for dollar-cost averaging, while increased volatility could benefit options traders [10]

格隆汇11月14日｜FP Markets首席市场分析师Aaron Hill在一份报告中表示，由于近期政府停摆导致官方 数据缺失，美联储十二月政策会议给决策者带来了艰难的挑战。美联储内部仍然存在分歧且保持谨慎， 尽管一些美联储官员仍支持降息，但"有意义的鹰派重新定价已经发生"，投资者不确定利率是否会被下 调。LSEG数据显示，货币市场目前定价降息与维持利率不变的概率大致相等。 来源：格隆汇APP ...

But your first guest today says don't be deterred. He thinks the S&P 500 will power up next year all the way to 7750. Let's start off a big day with Julian Emanuel, senior managing director of equity, derivatives, quantitative strategy at Evercore ISI.Julian, welcome. One day not a trend make, but do you have a take on what's happening today. >> Well, this is a classic buy the rumor, sell the news.Right. So the market turned last Friday on anticipation of the government reopening and essentially if you look ...

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference following a meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee at the Federal Reserve on Oct. 29, 2025 in Washington, DC.Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell wasn't kidding a couple weeks ago when he said a December rate cut wasn't in the bag.Recent remarks from Powell's colleagues point to plenty of apprehension over whether the central bank should deliver its third consecutive easing of policy when it meets Dec. 9-10.As a result, markets have re ...

免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不 做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状 | | | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | 2025/11/13 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 最新 | | | 环比 | | | EC主力收盘价 | 1632.000 -38.5↓ EC次主力收盘价 1170.3 | | | | -16.90↓ | | 期货盘面 | EC2602-EC2605价差 461.70 -2.90↓ EC2602-EC2606价差 251.30 | | | | -20.60↓ | | EC合约基差 | -127.20 +300.69↑ | | | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | 37284 4383↑ | | | | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） | 1504.80 296.09↑ SCFIS（美西线）（周） 1,327.91 | | ...

Corporate Performance - Cisco (CSCO) stock increased over 4% following its earnings report, which indicated progress in capturing AI spending from hyperscalers. The company raised its full-year profit and sales forecasts, surpassing analysts' expectations [5] - Disney's (DIS) fourth quarter revenue fell short of estimates, resulting in a 9% decline in its shares, despite the company increasing its dividend [5] - Market attention is now focused on Applied Materials (AMAT) results, as the earnings season approaches its conclusion [5] Economic Impact - The end of the 43-day US federal shutdown is expected to have long-term effects, with the Congressional Budget Office estimating that US GDP could be approximately $11 billion lower by the end of 2026 than previously anticipated [2] - Uncertainty regarding the economic outlook is complicating market expectations for interest rate cuts, with a roughly 50-50 chance of a reduction at the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting, a significant drop from around 95% odds a month ago [4]

Boston Fed President Susan Collins has voted in line with the central bank's majority decisions so far this year. ...