据央视新闻报道，当地时间24日，美国总统特朗普造访美联储。特朗普表示，跟美联储主席鲍威尔讨论 了利率问题，称"这次谈话很有成效"。 特朗普就解雇美联储主席鲍威尔一事表示，这将是一个大动作。 此外，特朗普提及翻修工程数据。鲍威尔表示，预计翻修工程将会在2027年完成。特朗普称，他通常会 解雇超出预算的项目经理。 特朗普表示，希望鲍威尔能降低利率，如果把利率降低三个百分点至一个百分点，美国就能省下一万多 亿美元。他将观察委员会如何制定利率规则。 ...

周四，欧洲央行将其基准利率维持在2%不变，以等待欧盟与美国贸易关系走向的更多明确信号。 这一决定在经济学家的普遍预期之内，此前欧洲央行行长拉加德上个月曾表示，该央行已"接近完成"其最新的降息周期，并强烈暗示决策者将转向"观望"策 略。 欧洲央行称继续坚持"逐次会议"的方针，不会预设利率路径，所有决策将以最新数据为依据。 "国内物价压力持续缓解，工资增长放缓，"该央行周四表示。它补充说，部分由于此前的降息，欧元区经济"在一个充满挑战的全球环境中，迄今总体上已 证明具有韧性"。 消息发布后，欧元兑美元保持稳定。 今年6月，欧元区的年化通胀率已降至欧洲央行2%的中期目标。 在周四的声明之后，根据掉期市场所隐含的水平，交易员们仍然预计今年下半年还会有一次25个基点的降息，将利率降至1.75%。 美国总统特朗普本月曾威胁，如果贸易谈判失败，将从8月1日开始对欧盟进口商品征收30%的"对等"关税。 但据知情人士透露，贸易伙伴双方正接近达成一项协议，该协议将对欧洲输美商品征收15%的关税。 欧盟方面强调，其优先事项是与华盛顿谈判达成协议，但也一直在准备反制措施，以便在谈判失败时部署。此类举动可能会推高该货币集团的通胀并阻碍 ...

土耳其央行超预期将基准一周回购利率下调至43%，市场预期降至43.5%。 ...

土耳其央行将基准回购利率下调至43.00%，预期 43.5%。 ...

4. 法兴银行：欧洲央行料将维持利率不变，下一次降息将在9月；此次 会议 可能成为欧元信贷市场的主 要推动力。 5. 北欧银行：欧洲央行料将维持利率不变，并将在较长一段时间内保持观望，且将强调在当前利率水平 下处于有利地位。 6. 潘森宏观：欧洲央行料将维持利率不变，因欧洲央行无法确定特朗普是否将实施新的关税税率，欧洲 央行将转而关注9月会议。 金十整理：机构前瞻欧洲央行利率决议——7月按兵不动已成共识，降息大门就此关闭还是9月重启？ 1. 花旗银行：欧洲央行料将维持利率不变，并将在9月和12月各降息一次，此前预期为7月和9月。 2. 高盛集团：欧洲央行料将维持利率不变，政策声明也仅会做出有限调整，且管委会将重申其基于数据 的政策。 3. 路透调查：欧洲央行料将维持利率不变，84位 经济学家 中有49位预计该行今年9月将下调存款利率至 1.75%。 9. 丹斯克银行：欧洲央行料将维持利率不变，9月将最终降息至1.75%。贸易谈判结果将对未来政策至 关重要，高于10%的关税将偏离欧洲央行的预期。 10. 荷兰合作银行：欧洲央行料将维持利率不变，且其可能实际上已结束降息周期，但该行至少在几个 月内不会承认这一点。 ...

Group 1: Political Pressure on Monetary Policy - Former President Donald Trump publicly called for an immediate 300 basis point interest rate cut, arguing that each 1% increase costs the U.S. an additional $360 billion annually in interest payments, suggesting a potential savings of over a trillion dollars with a 3% cut [2][4] - Trump's sudden shift in tone regarding Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, stating he is "unlikely" to fire him, reflects pressure from Republican lawmakers warning that such an action could lead to a market crash [4] - Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin announced that the process for selecting the next Federal Reserve Chairman has officially begun, hinting at potential changes in leadership that could impact market stability [4][6] Group 2: Economic Data and Market Reactions - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-over-year, marking a four-month high, while core CPI increased by 2.9%, significantly above the Federal Reserve's 2% target [4][6] - The Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President, known for her hawkish stance, emphasized the need to maintain a 4.25% interest rate for 6 to 12 months to avoid repeating the stagflation of the 1970s [6] - A survey indicated that 88% of manufacturing firms and 82% of service firms plan to pass on tariff costs to consumers, further complicating the inflation landscape [6] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Technology Sector - Despite a nearly 1% drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nvidia's stock surged by 4%, pushing its market capitalization above $4.1 trillion, highlighting the contrasting performance within the tech sector [7] - The semiconductor supply chain is showing signs of recovery, with TSMC reporting a 61% increase in net profit for Q2 and projecting a 30% growth in annual sales [7] - The ongoing trade tensions, including a 30% tariff on Mexico, have heightened market volatility and influenced investor sentiment towards safe-haven assets like gold [7][8] Group 4: Financial Market Sentiment - Gold prices struggled around $3,330, while the likelihood of a rate cut in September dropped from 65% to 58%, indicating a shift in market expectations regarding Federal Reserve actions [8] - The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield surpassed 5% for the first time since June, prompting traders to reduce long positions [8] - A survey revealed a decrease in the percentage of investors willing to hedge against dollar depreciation, suggesting a growing underestimation of political intervention risks [8][9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The value of floating - rate bonds is affected by factors such as changes in the benchmark interest rate, term spreads, and market expectations of interest rate movements. In a rising interest - rate environment, floating - rate bonds are more resistant to price declines compared to fixed - rate bonds, but they perform relatively weakly in a falling interest - rate environment. - Based on simulations of floating - rate bonds, the market expects the 1 - year LPR to decline steadily in the next two years, reaching a low of 2.8% in April 2027, and then rise to 3.1% by the end of 2027. - Considering the potential for additional interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, the allocation value of floating - rate bonds may be lower than that of fixed - rate bonds. Similarly, the current allocation value of DR007 floating - rate bonds may also be lower than that of fixed - rate bonds [167][177]. 3. Directory Summaries 3.1 China's Floating - Rate Bond Historical Changes - **Issuance Scale**: Over the past 30 years, China's floating - rate bond issuance scale has shown a fluctuating upward trend, with three rounds of expansion and adjustment. The issuance scale reached a historical peak of 637.6 billion yuan in 2021, but has significantly decreased in the past three years [14]. - **Benchmark Interest Rate**: It has evolved from a single benchmark (1 - year fixed - deposit interest rate) to a diversified one. Currently, LPR and DR007 are the mainstream benchmark interest rates [20][27]. - **Bond Types**: Policy - bank bonds and asset - backed securities have alternately dominated the market. Since 2022, policy - bank bonds have once again become the main type of floating - rate bonds [34][41]. - **Issuance Term**: The issuance term has changed from being highly concentrated (7 - 10 years) to gradually diversified and then re - concentrated (2 - 3 years) [46][51]. 3.2 Floating - Rate Bond Valuation Method - **Valuation Principle**: Based on the discounted cash - flow method (DCF), the present value of a floating - rate bond is calculated by discounting future coupon payments and the principal at maturity to the current point in time. However, the difficulty lies in predicting future coupon payments and selecting the discount rate [63][64]. - **Factors Affecting Investment Value**: Changes in the benchmark interest rate and term spreads (∆y) affect the value of floating - rate bonds. Generally, an increase in the benchmark interest rate leads to a decrease in bond value, and vice versa. The impact of term spreads on bond value needs to be analyzed in combination with changes in the benchmark interest rate [77][80]. 3.3 Relative Value of Floating - Rate Bonds - **Comparison with Fixed - Rate Bonds**: In a rising interest - rate environment, the price decline of floating - rate bonds is smaller than that of fixed - rate bonds; in a falling interest - rate environment, floating - rate bonds perform slightly worse than fixed - rate bonds [86][94]. 3.4 Absolute Value of Floating - Rate Bonds (Based on Historical Backtracking) - By observing the historical trends of floating - rate bonds with DR007 as the benchmark, it is found that the value changes of floating - rate bonds are complex and are affected by the fluctuations of the National Development Bank bond rate and DR007. When the two rates move in opposite directions, the direction of the floating - rate bond value change is clear; when they are stable, the value center of the floating - rate bond is stable; when they move in the same direction, the direction of the value change is uncertain [101][134]. 3.5 Future Interest - Rate Cut Path Implied by Current Floating - Rate Bonds - By simulating the cash flows of floating - rate bonds, the market's implied interest - rate cut/ hike path for the 1 - year LPR in the next three years can be predicted. The market expects the 1 - year LPR to decline steadily in the next two years, reach a low of 2.8% in April 2027, and then rise to 3.1% by the end of 2027. The implied interest - rate cut expectations of floating - rate National Development Bank bonds are stronger than those of Agricultural Development Bank bonds [154][162]. 3.6 Investment Value of Floating - Rate Bonds - **1 - year LPR Floating - Rate Bonds**: Considering the potential for additional interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, the allocation value of floating - rate bonds may be lower than that of fixed - rate bonds [167]. - **DR007 Floating - Rate Bonds**: Through scenario analysis, it is found that under most scenarios, the current allocation value of DR007 floating - rate bonds is lower than that of fixed - rate bonds [172][175].

虽然重申不会罢免，美国总统特朗普周三继续向美联储主席鲍威尔施压，要求降低利率，并呼吁美联储 董事会采取行动。 美国财长贝森特则透露，目前不急于确定美联储主席鲍威尔的继任者，候选人可能来自现任联邦公开市 场委员会(FOMC)成员或地区联储主席，同时，鲍威尔也没有决定是否会提前结束美联储理事任期。 放弃尝试解雇鲍威尔？ 上周二，一则特朗普对解雇鲍威尔的想法持开放态度的消息一度引发市场动荡。美国总统随后很快否认 了这些报道，尽管他对鲍威尔没有降息提出了新的批评。 根据1913年成立美联储的《联邦储备法》规定，美联储理事会成员由总统任命，经参议院批准，任期为 14年，实行交错任期制。只在"有正当理由"的情况下才能被免职——长期以来人们认为"正当理由"指的 是不当行为，而不是政策分歧。 美联储翻修项目意外成为了潜在的突破口。受项目进度缓慢，及物料、人工价格等因素影响，该项目预 算已达到25亿美元，比最初预算多出约6亿美元。第一财经此前曾报道，7月2日联邦住房金融局局长 （FHFA）普尔特（William Pulte）声称，美联储主席鲍威尔在美联储总部建筑翻修时存在渎职行为， 要求开启调查。特朗普盟友、佛罗里达州的共和党 ...

Market Performance - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results with the S&P 500 reaching a new high, while the Dow Jones increased by 0.4% and the Nasdaq decreased by 0.39% [1] - Major tech stocks had varied performances, with Tesla rising over 1% and Nvidia falling over 2% [1] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 1.7%, with notable gains in Chinese concept stocks such as NIO increasing over 10% and Baidu rising over 4% [1] Federal Reserve Insights - Jerome Powell emphasized the need for large U.S. banks to maintain capital adequacy and manage risks, allowing them to compete freely with non-bank financial companies [1] - Powell's comments did not include any insights on future monetary policy as the Federal Reserve enters a quiet period ahead of the upcoming meeting [1] Interest Rate Speculations - The swap market indicates that the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut next week is nearly zero, with traders pricing in a total of 46 basis points of cuts for the remainder of the year [2] - The probability of maintaining the current interest rate in September is 41.4%, while the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 57.2% [2] Political Pressure on the Federal Reserve - Former President Trump has repeatedly attempted to pressure Powell to resign, while Treasury Secretary Mnuchin supports Powell's continued tenure [3] - Trump has expressed that interest rates are too high, suggesting they should be lowered by 3 percentage points or more, attributing housing market issues to Powell's policies [4] - Mnuchin called for a comprehensive internal review of the Federal Reserve's functions, indicating a need for the institution to refocus on its core responsibilities [4]

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results with the Dow Jones up by 0.4%, while the Nasdaq fell by 0.39% and the S&P 500 increased by 0.06% [3] - Major technology stocks had varied performances, with Tesla rising over 1% and Nvidia dropping more than 2% [3] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose by 1.7%, with notable gains in popular Chinese stocks such as NIO, Baidu, and Pinduoduo [3] Group 2 - COMEX gold futures increased by 1.1%, closing at $3444 per ounce, while silver futures rose by 0.83% to $39.66 per ounce [4] - WTI crude oil futures fell by 1.47%, settling at $66.21 per barrel, and Brent crude oil dropped by 0.89% to $68.59 per barrel [5] Group 3 - The People's Bank of China reported a 7.1% year-on-year increase in the total balance of RMB loans, amounting to 268.56 trillion yuan by the end of the second quarter [9] - Real estate loans showed a slight recovery with a balance of 53.33 trillion yuan, reflecting a 0.4% year-on-year growth [9] - The total amount of foreign capital net purchases of domestic stocks and funds reached $10.1 billion in the first half of the year, reversing a trend of net selling over the past two years [11] Group 4 - JD.com announced a cash investment of 1 billion yuan to recruit "dish partners" for its "Seven Fresh Kitchen" initiative, aiming to establish 10,000 kitchens over three years [20] - Meituan's "Pin Hao Fan" launched a "10,000 Brand Plan" to support 10,000 well-known restaurant brands, enhancing service quality and user attraction [22] - The 2025 Fortune China 500 list revealed that State Grid Corporation topped the list with revenues of $548.4 billion, while Bilibili made its debut on the list [24] Group 5 - LV faced a data breach affecting approximately 419,000 customers in Hong Kong, which could lead to significant reputational damage and potential legal consequences [26] - Tesla opened its first restaurant in California, integrating dining with charging stations, which may represent a new revenue growth point for the company [27] - The launch of the "official direct sales platform" by the "Air Travel Zhongheng" app aims to facilitate ticket purchasing and enhance competition among airlines [28]