当地时间10日，美国联邦储备委员会结束为期两天的货币政策会议， 最终以9比3的投票结果通过降息 ， 宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调 25个基点到3.50%至3.75%之间。 这是美联储继今年第三次降息，也是自2024年9月以来第六次降息。 美联储决策机构联邦公开市场委员会在会后发表声明称，现有指标表明美国经济活动一直以温和的速度扩张，今年就业增长放缓，失业率略 有上升，通胀率自年初以来有所上升，目前仍处于较高水平。经济前景的不确定性依然较高，近几个月就业面临的下行风险有所增加。 此前，美联储官员就关税政策对通胀的影响以及是否在12月进一步降息存在分歧，但美国就业市场数据恶化推高了降息预期。 来源丨新华社 编辑丨兰银帆 审核丨许晨辉 往期回顾 Review of Past Articles - 美联储降息25个基点概率接近90%；下任主席人选及政策倾向受关注｜国际 何谓新型政策性金融工具？｜宏观经济 01 02 在风格上 既可以是分析研判式的文稿,也可以是解读评论型的文稿, 既可以建言献策经济金融理论与实践,也可以归纳总结新经 济金融模式与案例。 十三十十 ERIVEV- 无需复杂的理论与计量模型,无需过多的图 ...

week. We're joined now on that note by Rick Reer. He's Black Rockck CIO of Global Fixed Income.He is head of the firm's allocation team as well. I'm glad we could catch up with you, Rick. Welcome back.>> Thanks a lot. Thanks for having me, Scott. >> I assume you expect a cut on Wednesday.Yeah, I don't think it's definitive, but I uh I mean, you're going to have a cut and I think the markets almost almost universally think it'll be a hawkish cut and that he will have to give some time to you have a number of ...

US stocks stalled on Monday, as Wall Street headed into a pivotal week dominated by the Federal Reserve's final policy meeting of 2025. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) dipped 0.2%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) slipped below the flat line. The laggard start to the trading week comes on the heels of closing gains for stocks Friday. Markets are on the lookout for risks to almost-total confidence that the Fed will cut interest rates at its two-day policy meet ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley believes that the short-term volatility in the U.S. stock market, driven by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and liquidity tightening, presents a buying opportunity for bulls [1][25]. Market Analysis - Despite a modest 5% pullback in the S&P 500 index, two-thirds of the top 1000 companies have experienced declines exceeding 10%, indicating a significant internal market adjustment [1][4]. - The report highlights that momentum stocks peaked on October 15, coinciding with a notable rise in the Treasury General Account (TGA) due to government shutdown concerns [3][4]. - The S&P 500 index reached its peak on October 29, the same day the Fed signaled a hawkish stance during its meeting [3][4]. Sector Recommendations - Analysts maintain a bullish outlook for the next 12 months, particularly favoring sectors such as consumer goods, healthcare, finance, industrials, and small-cap stocks [3][25]. - The report suggests that the recent broad-based individual stock adjustments are a positive sign, indicating that the market correction is in its latter stages [7][25]. Liquidity Conditions - Morgan Stanley notes that high-momentum and speculative growth stocks are more sensitive to liquidity constraints, which have been tightening since mid-October [16][18]. - The report anticipates that liquidity conditions will improve as the government shutdown ends and the TGA balance decreases significantly in the coming weeks [18]. Employment Market Insights - Various alternative labor market indicators show signs of weakness, but not an accelerating trend, suggesting a gradual slowdown rather than a sharp decline [9][10]. - The upcoming official employment data release on December 16 may create uncertainty for the Fed's decision on interest rates, potentially leading to short-term market volatility [15][25]. Long-term Outlook - Morgan Stanley's 2026 outlook report presents contrarian views, suggesting that the market is in an "early cycle" phase, contrary to the prevailing belief of being in a "late cycle" [19]. - The firm projects a 17% earnings growth for Nasdaq-related companies by 2026, exceeding the consensus estimates [19][22]. - The report emphasizes that despite recent market pullbacks, the underlying fundamentals remain strong, supporting a positive outlook for small-cap stocks and non-essential consumer goods [23][25].

Group 1: Economic Outlook - A senior official from the Federal Reserve warned that the increasing plight of the impoverished population in the U.S. poses a risk of recession for the world's most important economy [1] - The New York Fed President, Williams, indicated that many low- and middle-income families are facing a crisis in payment ability due to rising living costs and housing expenses [1] - The disparity in economic conditions between poorer families and wealthier Americans, who are benefiting from a soaring stock market, may influence the Fed's decision on whether to cut interest rates in December [1] Group 2: Employment Data in Canada - Canada added 66,000 net new jobs in October, with the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropping from 7.1% to 6.9%, marking the second consecutive month of improvement [2] - This employment growth significantly exceeded market expectations, which had predicted a loss of 20,000 jobs and an increase in the unemployment rate to 7.2% [2] - The job gains were primarily in part-time positions, while full-time employment remained relatively unchanged, indicating a recovery in hiring intentions among private sector employers [2] Group 3: Gold Market - Gold prices experienced slight gains last Friday, trading around 4068, supported by short covering and a weaker U.S. dollar due to soft economic data raising expectations for a Fed rate cut in December [3] - The decline in U.S. Treasury yields and persistent market risk aversion also contributed to the support for gold [3] - Key resistance is noted around 4100, with support at approximately 4000 [3] Group 4: Currency Markets - The USD/JPY pair saw slight gains, trading around 153.90, supported by technical buying near the 153.00 level and delayed interest rate hike expectations from the Bank of Japan due to weak economic data [4] - However, concerns over potential intervention by the Bank of Japan and a weaker U.S. dollar limited the upside potential [4] - Key resistance is noted around 155.00, with support at approximately 153.00 [4] Group 5: USD/CAD Dynamics - The USD/CAD pair declined, reaching a four-day low around 1.4030, pressured by profit-taking and a weaker U.S. dollar amid renewed Fed rate cut expectations [5] - Strong employment data from Canada also contributed to the downward pressure on the pair [5] - Key resistance is noted around 1.4100, with support at approximately 1.3950 [5]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights a strong rebound in private sector employment, with an average of 14,250 new jobs added weekly over the past four weeks, contrasting with negative growth in September [1][2] - The data is based on a collaboration between ADP and Stanford Digital Economy Lab, utilizing weekly salary records from over 26 million private sector employees [1] - ADP's Chief Economist, Nela Richardson, emphasizes that the near real-time employment data will provide clearer insights into the labor market during this critical economic period [1] Group 2 - The weekly addition of 14,250 jobs translates to an average monthly employment growth of approximately 55,000 jobs, a significant improvement compared to a decrease of 32,000 jobs reported in September's National Employment Report (NER) [2] - ADP plans to continue releasing a final monthly estimate, with the next NER scheduled for November 5, 2025, at 8:15 AM Eastern Time [2] - The next preliminary estimate for private sector weekly employment will be published on November 11 at 8:15 AM [2]

Core Viewpoint - The government shutdown has led to a reliance on private sector data to fill the gap left by the absence of government data, but there are significant limitations to this approach. Group 1: Government Data vs. Private Sector Data - Government data is considered the highest quality and serves as a benchmark for policy-making, with concerns about the reliability of private sector data due to its self-selecting nature and potential for bias [5][6][4] - Private sector data sources often aim to approximate government data, but they are not sufficient replacements, as they lack the comprehensive nature and reliability that government data provides [6][8] - The government is the only entity capable of providing a complete picture of the labor market, especially in light of historic lows in immigration, which complicates the understanding of job growth [7][4] Group 2: Current Job Market Insights - Recent private sector reports indicate soft job growth, with specific data showing a decline in job creation, such as ADP reporting a decrease of 32,000 jobs and the Conference Board employment trend index down by 0.7%, the lowest since early 2021 [6][7] - The NFIB reported a slight increase in the percentage of owners planning to hire, but this is from historically low levels, indicating a cautious outlook on job creation [6] Group 3: Limitations and Future Considerations - There is an acknowledgment that while private companies like ADP are making efforts to provide timely data, they cannot fully replace the public good that government data represents [14][6] - The potential for private sector data to improve through new data science techniques exists, but the fundamental need for government data remains critical [12][13]

Group 1 - The silver market is currently experiencing a strong bullish trend, with spot silver prices reaching a 14-year high of over $46, marking a 1.96% increase on the day and over 30% growth in the past six months [1] - Upcoming economic data releases in the U.S., including non-farm payrolls and employment indicators, will significantly influence market expectations regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][3] - The silver price has broken through the $45 level and is targeting the $46.60 area, with the overall price trend remaining bullish despite nearing overbought conditions [4] Group 2 - The employment market indicators, including initial and continuing jobless claims, will provide insights into the current state of the U.S. job market, which is a key consideration for the Federal Reserve's policy decisions [3] - If the non-farm payroll data shows continued weakness, it could increase the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut in October, which would be supportive for silver prices [3] - The silver market's strong performance may lead to a potential price target of $50, with any pullbacks seen as strong buying opportunities [4]

Policy Background and Core Dynamics - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations showed significant volatility, with the probability of a September rate cut dropping from 84% to 68% due to multiple factors, including diverging views among policymakers, mixed economic data, and external uncertainties [1][3]. Diverging Views Among Federal Reserve Officials - Dovish voices, such as Vice Chair Michelle Bowman, support three rate cuts within the year and urge for a September cut, arguing that tariff-driven inflation will not persist [3]. - Hawkish perspectives, represented by Atlanta Fed President Bostic, suggest only one more rate cut this year, emphasizing the need for more data [3]. Mixed Economic Data Signals - Inflation data showed mild results, with July CPI and core PCE data indicating resilience in service inflation and housing costs, raising concerns among officials about potential inflation rebounds [9]. - The labor market remains strong with low unemployment, but early indicators like reduced temporary hiring and shortened work hours suggest possible weakening [9]. - Retail sales increased by 0.5% month-over-month in July, indicating consumer resilience, although consumer confidence has declined due to inflation and unemployment concerns [9]. - Industrial production fell by 0.1% month-over-month in July, reflecting limited supply-side pressures but revealing weakening demand and trade policy impacts [9]. Market Predictions and Probability Changes - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September decreased from 84% to 68%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate rose to 32% [9]. - For October, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 48.8%, and for a 50 basis point cut, it is 51.5% [9]. - The decline in probabilities is attributed to hawkish statements from officials and concerns over resilient inflation, alongside uncertainties in the labor market and declining consumer confidence [9]. External Environment and Policy Challenges - The global economic environment is characterized by weak growth in Europe, geopolitical conflicts (e.g., Russia-Ukraine situation), and fluctuations in energy prices affecting the U.S. economic outlook [12]. - A strong dollar is suppressing export competitiveness but helps to mitigate import inflation [12]. - The Federal Reserve faces challenges in balancing a "higher for longer" interest rate policy with the goal of achieving a soft landing for the economy, with internal disagreements on the timing of rate cuts [12]. Conclusion and Future Outlook - The drop in September rate cut probability to 68% reflects mixed economic signals and diverging views among policymakers, with the market still anticipating rate cuts but requiring further data validation regarding timing and magnitude [15]. - Key observation points include upcoming CPI and PCE data for August, which could influence rate cut probabilities if inflation continues to ease [15]. - Labor market data will be critical; a significant rise in unemployment or a slowdown in hiring plans could prompt rate cuts [16]. - Statements from Powell and other policy signals during the global central bank meeting in August will provide important insights [16].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that ADP reported an increase of 104,000 private sector jobs in July, indicating a positive trend in employment growth [1] - Additionally, wages in the private sector experienced a year-over-year growth of 4.4%, reflecting an upward movement in compensation for workers [1]