智通财经APP获悉，在关键经济数据因政府停摆而延迟发布之际，市场正紧盯将于周三公布的ADP 11 月私营部门就业报告，这份本不算核心的月度数据如今在美联储下周议息会议前承担了异常重要的角 色。经济学家对11月新增就业的预测分歧明显：FactSet调查预计私营部门新增4万人，但媒体共识仅预 期增加5,000人，反映出劳动力市场信号持续混杂。 除ADP与褐皮书外，其他就业相关指标也未出现急剧恶化。美国首次申请失业救济人数最新一周下降 6,000人至216,000，仍处于较低区间，显示裁员未明显扩大。消费者信心中的"劳动力差值"在11月保持 稳定，认为"工作难找"的比例从10月的18.3%微降至17.9%。小型企业就业同样略有改善，Paychex就业 指数升至99.38，较10月小幅回升0.11点，显示这一群体的用工状况有所企稳。 尽管就业信号不一，金融市场仍大举押注12月降息，根据CME FedWatch数据，市场定价的降息概率高 达87%，远高于10月会议后仅37%的水平。然而，如今市场高度依赖的ADP就业报告本身就存在不确定 性，其结果仍可能再次引发预期波动。随着美联储进入静默期、官方就业数据推迟发布，周三的 ...

2025年票委中，倾向于降息的官员有5人。素有美联储"三把手"之称的纽约联储主席威廉姆斯表示，适度降息不会危及通胀目 标，反而可以进一步改善劳动力市场。美联储理事沃勒也表示，12月降息是合适的，但对2026年1月是否再次降息则不确定。新 任命的美联储官员米兰表示，若他的一票具有决定性作用，将支持12月继续降息。他在前两次会议中，都主张降息50个基点， 属于激进的降息派。 支持12月降息的美联储官员鲍曼和库克认为，降息会给经济注入新的活力，也不会提升当前的通胀。近期数据显示通胀水平已 经受到抑制，反对派关于"通胀可能再次走高"的担忧缺乏数据支撑。非2025年票委、旧金山联储主席戴利（2027年票委）同样 支持12月降息，理由是当前劳动力市场的恶化尚未得到有效缓解。 不降息官员的依据 2025年票委中，倾向于不降息的官员有6人。美联储副主席杰斐逊强调，随着利率逐步接近中性水平，12月的利率政策需要谨慎 行事。圣路易斯联储主席穆萨莱姆支持不降息的理由与杰斐逊一致。堪萨斯城联储主席施密德表示，进一步降息可能对通胀产 生持久影响，在关税问题未彻底解决之前降息需谨慎。他在10月会议上已明确反对降息，是不降息阵营中较为强硬 ...

Core Viewpoint - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has surged to 84.9%, reflecting unprecedented internal divisions and political influences within the Fed [1][22]. Group 1: Market Expectations - Initially, market expectations for a December rate cut were low, with the probability dropping to 49.4% in mid-November due to government shutdowns delaying economic data and positive job reports [3]. - By late November, the probability of a 25 basis point cut rose dramatically to 80.7%, driven by dovish signals from key Fed officials [5]. Group 2: Diverging Opinions within the Fed - Key Fed officials, including New York Fed President Williams and Fed Governor Waller, have expressed concerns about the labor market, advocating for a rate cut [7]. - Conversely, some officials, like Boston Fed President Collins, argue for maintaining rates due to persistent inflation, highlighting the internal conflict within the Fed [9]. Group 3: Economic Data Challenges - The Fed faces complex decision-making due to conflicting economic signals, such as rising unemployment (4.4% in September) and persistent inflation (CPI up 3.0%) [11]. - The cancellation of the October employment report and the delay of the November report until after the December FOMC meeting adds to the uncertainty [13]. Group 4: Political Influences - The selection of the next Fed Chair, influenced by political loyalty to Trump, significantly impacts market expectations, with potential candidates advocating for immediate rate cuts [16][18]. - Trump's policies, including tariff adjustments, have also affected inflation dynamics, complicating the Fed's decision-making process [18]. Group 5: Dollar Stability - Despite fluctuating rate cut expectations, the dollar index has remained stable, trading between 99 and 100.3 since October, as investors adopt a wait-and-see approach [20]. - The relative hawkish stance of the Fed compared to other central banks supports the dollar's stability, regardless of the December rate cut decision [22].

Group 1 - The market is increasingly betting on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut now at approximately 80%, up from 30% just days prior [1] - The recent employment data released for September showed mixed results, leading to a shift in interest rate expectations [3] - New York Fed President John Williams indicated that there is still room for further rate cuts due to a softening labor market, which intensified the rate cut expectations [3] Group 2 - There is a significant divide within the Federal Reserve, but the dovish sentiment appears to outweigh the hawkish views, as indicated by various officials supporting a rate cut [4] - The net long positions in the bond market have reached their highest level in nearly 15 years, reflecting the dovish sentiment in the futures market [4] - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond fell below 4% for the first time in a month, signaling a response to the dovish outlook [4]

Market Overview - The New York stock market experienced a positive trend on November 26, with all three major indices closing higher due to optimistic expectations ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 314.67 points to close at 47,427.12, a gain of 0.67%. The S&P 500 increased by 46.73 points to 6,812.61, up 0.69%. The Nasdaq Composite climbed 189.099 points to 23,214.69, marking an increase of 0.82% [1]. Sector Performance - Among the eleven sectors in the S&P 500, nine saw gains while two declined. The utilities and technology sectors led the gains with increases of 1.32% and 1.27%, respectively. Conversely, the communication services and healthcare sectors experienced declines of 0.49% and 0.25% [1]. Analyst Insights - Sam Stovall, Chief Investment Strategist at CFRA, predicts that the U.S. stock market is expected to regain upward momentum by March next year, with the S&P 500 potentially reaching 7,400 points by the end of next year [1]. - Eric Diton, President and Managing Director of Wealth Alliance, noted that the market is rebounding after a period of risk aversion, and historically, the stock market performs strongly during the Thanksgiving week [1]. Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve's national economic conditions report indicated that while high-end consumer spending remains resilient, overall consumer spending has declined. Employment conditions showed a slight decrease, with labor demand weakening in about half of the Federal Reserve districts [2]. - The Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index for November was reported at 36.3, significantly below the market expectation of 44.3 and the previous month's 43.8 [2]. Individual Stock Movement - Oracle Corporation's stock rose significantly by 4.02% to close at $204.96 per share, following a reaffirmation of a "buy" rating by Deutsche Bank analyst Brad Zelnick, who set a target price of $375 per share [3].

Across many districts, the Beige Book found that employment "edged lower,†marking a shift from earlier reports. ...

You say we're on hold, but does that also include December. Because that's not what Stuart Pohl just told us. He thought maybe making for a smooth transition to the next Fed chair would call for maybe a cut.Absolutely. And good morning. No high conviction here that they go ahead and December.I thought the whole hawkish narrative from the Fed a week or two ago was a little bit silly given the situation that we're witnessing in the labour market figures, whilst they argue that they're kind of flying blind abo ...

智通财经APP获悉，美国上周初请失业金人数意外降至4月中旬以来最低水平，在经济不确定性持续的 背景下仍保持相对低位。 美国劳工部周三公布的数据显示，截至11月22日当周，初请失业金人数减少6000人，至21.6万人。而经 济学家的预期中值为22.5万人。续请失业金人数(衡量正在领取失业金人数的指标)则在前一周微升至196 万人。 周三公布的数据表明，尽管雇主已放缓新员工招聘步伐，但在很大程度上仍在保留现有员工。尽管近几 周包括Verizon(VZ.US)和亚马逊(AMZN.US)在内的大型企业宣布裁员的消息日渐增多，但实际裁员规模 尚未出现显著上升。 自9月以来，续请失业金人数总体呈上升趋势，目前仍接近疫情后劳动力市场复苏时期的水平。尽管初 请失业金人数保持低位，但已失业者寻找新工作的难度正在加大。 近期调查显示，美国人对劳动力市场的担忧情绪日益加剧。11月消费者信心指数创下七个月来最大跌 幅，部分原因是民众对就业前景的预期更为黯淡。 同样，哈里斯民意调查公司(Harris Poll)10月开展的一项调查显示，55%的在职美国人担心失业，近半数 受访者表示，若失去当前工作，他们认为需要四个月或更长时间才能找到 ...

Group 1 - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. unexpectedly dropped to the lowest level since mid-April, remaining at a relatively low level overall [1] - Initial jobless claims decreased by 6,000 to 216,000, which is below the expected 225,000 [1] - The number of continuing claims rose slightly to 1.96 million, indicating ongoing challenges in re-employment despite low initial claims [1] Group 2 - Concerns about the labor market are increasing among the American public, with the consumer confidence index experiencing its largest decline in seven months due to weakening job prospects [1] - A Harris poll revealed that 55% of employed Americans are worried about unemployment, with nearly half believing it would take four months or longer to find a job of similar quality if they lost their current position [1] - The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates in the past two meetings to support the slowing labor market, but there is a division among policymakers on whether to continue this approach in December [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential nomination of Kevin Hassett as the next Chair of the Federal Reserve, highlighting his alignment with President Trump's economic views and the implications for monetary policy [2][3]. Group 1: Nomination Process - Kevin Hassett is viewed as the leading candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair, with strong support from Trump and his allies [2]. - Hassett has publicly stated that he would immediately lower interest rates if appointed, criticizing the Fed for allowing inflation to spiral out of control post-pandemic [2][3]. - Trump's decision on the nomination is expected to be announced before December 25, with speculation that Hassett's candidacy has been leaked intentionally [2][3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The potential for a "dovish successor" to the Fed Chair has led to positive market reactions, with U.S. stock prices rising and a decrease in 10-year Treasury yields [6]. - The 10-year Treasury yield has stabilized around 4.0018%, while the 2-year yield has dropped significantly, indicating a steepening yield curve [6]. Group 3: Historical Context - Historically, the nomination of the Fed Chair is a direct way for the President to influence the Federal Reserve, with Trump previously expressing regret over his appointment of Jerome Powell due to differing views on interest rate cuts [3][4]. - The next Fed Chair will serve a 14-year term starting February 1, with the current seat held by Stephen Miran, who is on unpaid leave [4].