美联储戴利：如果等到就业市场报告来告诉你劳动力市场是否疲软，那你就已经落后了。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Economic Outlook - The economy is perceived to be in good shape, with companies performing well and showing decent revenues, while labor market conditions are more challenging [10][24] - There is a significant displacement in labor expected over the next few years due to technological advancements, particularly in data centers and logistics [4][6] - The current labor market is characterized by low hiring and firing, with companies opting to maintain their existing workforce while evaluating business growth [8][9] Inflation and Interest Rates - Inflation metrics are running higher than desired, with core PCE at approximately 2.5% over six months and other metrics closer to 3% [2][3] - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates in December, influenced by concerns over the labor market and inflation dynamics [1][16] - The impact of interest rates on capital expenditures (capex) has diminished compared to previous decades, as large companies now fund capex through free cash flow rather than relying on interest rate adjustments [15][19] Corporate Performance and M&A Activity - Companies are experiencing increased productivity through advancements in technology, leading to lower costs and improved earnings [6][7] - The current environment has led to a surge in mergers and acquisitions (M&A), as companies seek to grow and vertically integrate using data and AI [6][7] - There is a notable disparity in economic performance, with high-income sectors thriving while low-income sectors struggle [24] Housing Market - The housing market is facing challenges, with insufficient new home construction despite lower mortgage rates, which have recently dropped to around 6% [12][13] - Increased housing supply could enhance labor mobility and address some inflationary pressures related to shelter costs [13][14] Debt and Fiscal Risks - The level of national debt remains a tail risk, with 90% of U.S. government debt maturing in two years, necessitating continuous refinancing [18][19] - Maintaining nominal GDP growth above the cost of debt is crucial for economic stability and reducing leverage [21][22]

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decisions - Several Federal Reserve regional presidents expressed dissatisfaction with the decision to lower interest rates, indicating a growing internal division regarding future rate paths [1] - Dallas Fed President Logan stated that she does not see the necessity for a rate cut unless inflation significantly decreases or the labor market cools down [1] - Cleveland Fed President Harmack criticized the rate cut, suggesting that current rates are close to neutral and further cuts could undermine efforts to bring inflation back to the 2% target [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Concerns - Atlanta Fed President Bostic emphasized the need for Powell to demonstrate the internal disagreements to prevent market misinterpretation of the rate path [1] - Fed Governor Waller advocated for a rate cut in December, citing concerns over the labor market and downplaying the inflationary risks from tariffs [2] - Waller noted that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation rate is approximately 2.5%, indicating it is not far from the target [2] Group 3: Market Reactions - Gold prices experienced slight declines due to hawkish Fed decisions and reduced expectations for a December rate cut, alongside easing trade tensions [3] - The USD/JPY pair saw a slight decline influenced by profit-taking and expectations of intervention by the Bank of Japan, despite strong CPI data [4] - The USD/CAD pair rose slightly, supported by hawkish Fed sentiments and weak Canadian GDP data, although rising oil prices limited its upward movement [5]

值得重点关注的是，美国ADP公司当天将发布10月ADP就业人数变动，即市场熟知的"小非农"数据。在 非农数据暂未明确发布的背景下，此次ADP数据的重要性进一步凸显；同时，ADP机构将从此次开始发 布周度数据（每周二公布ADP周预估数据），这一调整将为市场提供更灵敏的美国劳动力市场观测手 段。 周四（11月6日）贸易帐与工业数据指路，英国央行决议周四数据聚焦"全球经济景气"与"欧洲货币政策 预期"。早间，澳大利亚公布9月贸易帐：作为典型的商品出口属性国家，澳大利亚贸易帐通常是全球经 济景气的先行指标。随后，欧元区公布零售销售同比与环比数据，德国同步公布年化工业产出数据：这 两项数据均为欧洲央行制定货币政策的重要参考指标。周五（11月7日）贸易数据收官，五位FOMC票 委定调美联储政策周五以核心贸易数据与美联储政策指引收尾。周五的重头戏集中在晚间：五位美国 FOMC票委将集体发表讲话，其对通胀走势、劳动力市场及12月乃至今后利率决议的表态，将为市场提 供关键政策指引，直接影响美元指数、黄金的短期趋势。 周一（11月03日）黄金亚盘金价低开震荡，市场反弹小幅微涨，日内金价行情波动较小，关注下方支撑 位多单布局方案， ...

来源：中国商报 美联储内部对12月降息的分歧正在加剧。 美联储理事沃勒在最新的讲话中表示，鉴于美国就业持续放缓的风险，美联储应该在12月召开的议息会议上继续降息。但多位美联储官员以不同 形式表达了对12月再次降息可能性的担忧。 市场人士认为，如果未来的经济数据表现复杂，美联储内部分歧可能会持续更长时间。 受此影响，市场对美联储的降息预期持续降温。芝商所美联储观察工具的最新数据显示，美联储在12月降息25个基点的概率已从一周前的超过 90%，降至目前的约63%。 在同一场合，克利夫兰联储主席哈马克也表示，她不支持本周降息的决定，理由是持续的通胀风险。"我更倾向于在这次会议上维持利率不变。" 此外，堪萨斯城联储行长施密德在当天发表声明，阐述了他反对周三降息决定的理由。施密德表示，他在本周投票反对美联储降息的决定，原因 是担心经济增长和投资会对通胀形成上行压力。施密德说："依我的判断，劳动力市场总体上处于平衡状态，经济展现出持续动能，而通胀依然过 高。" 种种迹象表明，目前美联储内部分歧正在加剧。 市场人士认为，如果未来的经济数据表现复杂，这种分歧可能会持续更长时间。 摩根大通Bob Michele表示："如果未来 ...

汇通财经APP讯——上周五（10月31日，）就在美联储11月议息会议落幕、进入"缄默期"刚解除的第一 天，四位地区联储主席便轮番上阵，火力全开，直指10月降息"没必要"、12月再降"门槛更高"。达拉斯 联储洛根、克利夫兰联储哈玛克、亚特兰大联储博斯蒂克、堪萨斯城联储施密德，四位鹰派大佬的密集 表态，不仅让市场对12月降息的预期瞬间降温，更让外界看清了美联储内部裂痕的冰山一角——主席鲍 威尔那句"12月进一步降息远非板上钉钉"，原来不是客套，而是真·内部共识难产的预警！ 洛根一锤定音：劳动力市场不需要降息"救场" 达拉斯联储主席洛根上周五在银行业会议上开门见 山："我认为本周根本没有必要降息。"她进一步放狠话，除非出现"明确证据"证明通胀会比预期更快回 落，或劳动力市场明显降温，否则12月再降息"很难"。洛根的逻辑简单粗暴：当前就业市场风险虽偏下 行，但完全可以"密切监测、事到临头再出手"，没必要现在就急吼吼地预防性降息。换句话说，劳动力 市场的"小感冒"不值得动用降息"大药方"。 哈玛克神补刀：当前利率"几乎没限制性"，必须继续压通胀 克利夫兰联储主席哈玛克的发言更犀利。 她上周五直言："我更倾向于本周保持利 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor, Michelle Bowman, has indicated that restrictive monetary policies pose risks to the labor market [1] Group 1 - The restrictive policies implemented by the Federal Reserve may lead to potential challenges in the labor market [1]

美联储沃勒：通胀正回落至2%，目前最大的担忧是劳动力市场。 来源：滚动播报 ...

此外，达拉斯联储主席洛根也表示，美联储本周不应降息，12月也不应再次降息。她指出，劳动力市 场"总体平衡"，无需立即提供支持，而通胀看起来可能在较长时间内维持在2%的目标之上。 堪萨斯城联储主席施密德表示，他本周投票反对降息的决定，因为他担心经济增长和投资将对通胀构成 上行压力。 施密德在周五发布的一份声明中表示："在我看来，劳动力市场已基本恢复平衡，经济持续显示出增长 势头，但通胀率依然过高。" 施密德指出，从宽松的金融市场状况来看，目前的货币政策仅仅是适度紧缩。 这是施密德作为美联储官员首次投下反对票。他于2023年加入，并于今年首次成为联邦公开市场委员会 的投票委员。美联储理事米兰在本周的会议上也投下了反对票，他倾向于将联邦基金利率下调50个基 点。 美联储官员周四投票决定将基准利率下调25个基点，这是两个月来的第二次降息，旨在提振放缓的劳动 力市场。美联储主席鲍威尔在会后告诉记者，市场普遍预期的12月再次降息并非板上钉钉，并指出他的 一些同事对通胀表示担忧。 美国劳工部本月早些时候报告称，截至9月的一年里，消费者价格上涨了3%，并且通胀率已经连续四年 多高于美联储2%的目标。施密德重申，他所在辖区的企 ...

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve is currently navigating uncertainty in the labor market, which complicates their decision-making process regarding interest rates [2][3][4] - There is a cautious tone from the Fed, as they lack real-time data on jobs and economic indicators, leading to a reliance on interpretation rather than concrete data [4][6] - The market seems to be absorbing the impact of tariffs as temporary and muted, with inflation remaining above the Fed's target but not showing significant upward pressure [8][9][10] Interest Rate Outlook - The Fed is preserving optionality in their approach to interest rates, indicating a division within the committee on future rate paths [2][4] - There is a suggestion that the labor market's weakness may be prolonged rather than a short-term blip, which could influence future rate cuts [4][5] - The Fed is cautious about making decisions based on sentiment rather than data, highlighting the importance of upcoming labor market data [6][10] Inflation and Market Response - Long-term Treasury yields are not reflecting heightened inflation concerns, suggesting that the market is comfortable with the current inflation levels [7][10] - Inflation has not shown a significant decline, remaining flat due to tariffs, but there is an expectation that it will eventually decrease as tariffs are absorbed [9][10] - The Fed is wary of incorporating assumptions into their policy decisions without clearer labor market data, which could lead to unexpected outcomes [10]