The shutdown of the U.S. federal government could cost the economy up to $14 billion, depending on how long it lasts, the Congressional Budget Office said Wednesday.The shutdown, now in its fourth week, will result in the loss of at least $7 billion of gross domestic product by the end of 2026 as a result of furloughed federal employees working fewer weeks, the CBO said.And the cost will grow the longer the shutdown drags on, CBO Director Phillip Swagel told U.S. House Budget Committee Chairman Jodey Arring ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Senate failed to pass a procedural vote to advance the "Fiscal Year 2025 Continuing Appropriations and Extension Act," resulting in the continuation of the government shutdown [1] - The government shutdown began on October 1 due to significant disagreements between the Republican and Democratic parties over healthcare-related spending, leading to a depletion of funds for normal government operations [2] - The largest food assistance program, the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), is at risk of running out of funds, potentially affecting approximately 42 million Americans who may face food insecurity [2] Group 2 - A coalition of 25 states and Washington D.C. has filed a lawsuit against the federal government, demanding the use of emergency funds to maintain SNAP benefits for November [2] - The lawsuit accuses the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) of violating the Food and Nutrition Act and the Administrative Procedure Act by refusing to utilize emergency reserves for SNAP [2] - USDA Secretary Rollins stated that the department does not have the required $9.2 billion to continue SNAP benefits, highlighting the financial constraints faced by the agency during the shutdown [3]

Upcoming funding deadlines could pressure Democrats and Republicans into making a deal to end the shutdown, but it wouldn't be a shocker if the Washington debacle keeps going for another week or two. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metals market regained upward momentum during intraday trading as the meeting between the top leaders of China and the US and the FOMC meeting approached. The London gold price rebounded after a sharp correction, and the London silver price regained the $48 mark. The tariff news was optimistic, causing market risk aversion to recede and increasing market volatility. Trump's tariff negotiations with Southeast Asian countries and the initial optimistic Sino - US tariff consultations were short - term negative for the gold price. The US September CPI was lower than expected, and the market fully priced in two interest rate cuts this year. Affected by the previous sharp correction, the trading sentiment was cautious, with strong profit - taking sentiment among bulls, but there was also strong buying demand at key support levels. Most Fed voting members supported restarting the easing path, and two 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts this year were the market's general expectation. Before the meeting between the top leaders of China and the US, the long - short game in the market intensified. The Fed's interest rate cut expectation and the continued US government shutdown provided bottom support. However, if the Sino - US talks achieved substantial results, the gold price might continue to correct. It is recommended to focus on range - bound trading. The recommended trading range for the Shanghai Gold 2512 contract is 880 - 920 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai Silver 2512 contract is 11000 - 11600 yuan/kilogram [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Shanghai Gold main contract closing price: 910.88 yuan/gram, up 9.5 yuan; Shanghai Silver main contract closing price: 11338 yuan/kilogram, up 289 yuan - Shanghai Gold main contract open interest: 168691 lots, down 7225 lots; Shanghai Silver main contract open interest: 304414 lots, down 17462 lots - Shanghai Gold main contract top 20 net open interest: 110656 lots, up 2063 lots; Shanghai Silver main contract top 20 net open interest: 85919 lots, up 3368 lots - Gold warehouse receipts: 87816 kilograms, up 801 kilograms; Silver warehouse receipts: 653828 kilograms, down 3599 kilograms [2] 3.2现货市场 - Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network gold spot price: 904.7 yuan/gram, down 6.71 yuan; Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network silver spot price: 11272 yuan/kilogram, up 109 yuan - Shanghai Gold main contract basis: - 6.18 yuan/gram, up 0.53 yuan; Shanghai Silver main contract basis: - 66 yuan/kilogram, down 175 yuan [2] 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - Gold ETF holdings: 1038.92 tons, unchanged; Silver ETF holdings: 15209.57 tons, down 131.22 tons - Gold CFTC non - commercial net open interest (weekly): 266749 contracts, up 339 contracts; Silver CTFC non - commercial net open interest (weekly): 52276 contracts, up 738 contracts - Gold total supply (quarterly): 1313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; Silver total supply (yearly): 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces - Gold total demand (quarterly): 1313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; Silver global total demand (yearly): 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2] 3.4 Option Market - 20 - day historical volatility of gold: 36.03%, up 2.69 percentage points; 40 - day historical volatility of gold: 26.86%, up 1.96 percentage points - At - the - money call option implied volatility of gold: 26.17%, down 1.51 percentage points; At - the - money put option implied volatility of gold: 26.18%, down 1.51 percentage points [2] 3.5 Industry News - The US Senate, with a 54 - to - 45 vote, failed again in a procedural vote to advance the "2025 Fiscal Year Continuing Appropriations and Extension Act" aimed at ending the government shutdown. The bill, passed by the House of Representatives, proposed to temporarily resume government operations at the current funding level and needed 60 votes in the Senate to proceed. This was the 13th vote on the bill, and it still failed to reach the required threshold, meaning the government shutdown would continue - On October 28, Japanese Prime Minister Hayasuna Kōichi and US President Trump signed an agreement to promote Japan's $550 billion investment plan in the US - ADP, the "small non - farm" data publisher, announced that it would launch weekly employment data from this week to track the US labor market dynamics more frequently. The first report showed that in the four weeks ending October 11, the average number of private - sector jobs in the US increased by 14,250 - The Conference Board data showed that the US consumer confidence index in October declined for the third consecutive month, falling from 95.6 in September to 94.6, the lowest level since April this year. The expectation index dropped to 71.5, the lowest since June [2]

Core Points - The U.S. federal government shutdown has entered its 28th day, significantly impacting air traffic controllers who are unable to receive their salaries, leading many to take on second jobs to make ends meet [1] - Approximately 13,000 air traffic controllers and 50,000 TSA employees did not receive their full salaries due to the shutdown, resulting in increased financial strain and a potential rise in safety risks within the aviation system [1][2] - The shortage of air traffic controllers has led to a notable increase in flight delays, with 8,800 and nearly 7,000 flights delayed on October 26 and 27, respectively, primarily due to insufficient staffing [2] Group 1 - The shutdown has forced air traffic controllers to seek additional employment, such as working in restaurants, delivering food, driving for ride-sharing services, and tutoring [1] - The National Air Traffic Controllers Association has reported that the number of controllers taking on part-time jobs is expected to rise from hundreds to thousands as financial pressures mount [1] - Young air traffic controllers, particularly those new to the job or without savings, are facing the greatest economic challenges, which could lead to decreased focus on their work and increased safety risks [1] Group 2 - The inability to pass a temporary funding bill due to partisan disagreements in Congress has resulted in the current government shutdown, affecting many federal employees [2] - The increase in sick leave among air traffic controllers has contributed to significant flight delays, with the proportion of delays attributed to air traffic control rising sharply from an average of 5% to 44% and 24% on the respective days [2] - The long-standing issue of air traffic controller shortages has been exacerbated by the shutdown, leading to increased workloads for those still on duty [3]

Core Insights - The U.S. federal government shutdown has entered its 28th day, significantly impacting air traffic controllers who are unable to receive their salaries, leading many to take on second jobs to make ends meet [1][2] - Approximately 13,000 air traffic controllers and 50,000 Transportation Security Administration employees have not received their full salaries due to the shutdown, resulting in increased financial strain and a potential rise in safety risks [1][4] Group 1 - Air traffic controllers are resorting to part-time jobs such as restaurant servers, delivery drivers, and tutors to sustain their livelihoods during the shutdown [1][2] - The National Air Traffic Controllers Association has reported that the number of controllers taking on part-time work is expected to increase from hundreds to thousands as financial pressures mount [2] - Young air traffic controllers, particularly those new to the job or still in training, are facing the greatest economic challenges, making them the most vulnerable group affected by the shutdown [2] Group 2 - The government shutdown was triggered by a failure to pass a temporary funding bill due to disagreements between the Republican and Democratic parties over healthcare-related spending [4] - The shortage of air traffic controllers has led to a significant increase in flight delays, with 8,800 and nearly 7,000 flights delayed on October 26 and 27, respectively [4] - The proportion of flight delays attributed to air traffic controller shortages rose dramatically to 44% and 24% on those days, compared to an average of only 5% before the shutdown [4]

Core Points - The U.S. federal government shutdown has entered its 28th day, significantly impacting various sectors of American society [1] - Air traffic controllers and TSA workers are now required to work without pay, leading to increased flight delays and cancellations [1] - Major airlines, including Southwest Airlines, American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, and United Airlines, reported flight delays ranging from 19% to 34% on the 27th [1] Group 1: Impact on Air Travel - Approximately 15,000 air traffic controllers and 50,000 TSA employees are working without pay, causing heightened stress among these workers [1] - Passengers have expressed dissatisfaction with flight delays, with some altering their travel plans to avoid flying [1] - The situation has led to a notable increase in flight disruptions, affecting customer experiences and travel plans [1] Group 2: Broader Economic Impact - Federal employees across various departments are facing increasing financial pressure due to the lack of pay [2] - Employees from the Department of Defense have reported significant financial strain, indicating that they are struggling to manage their finances without a paycheck [2] - The ongoing shutdown raises concerns about the sustainability of federal employees' financial situations as savings deplete [2]

Group 1 - The current trading price of gold T+D is around 905.90 CNY per gram, with a decline of 0.48% [1] - The highest price reached was 908.16 CNY per gram, while the lowest was 890.40 CNY per gram [1] - The short-term outlook for gold T+D is leaning towards a fluctuating trend [1] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates resistance levels at 991-1030 CNY per gram and support levels at 890-940 CNY per gram [3] - A breakout above 1000 CNY per gram could lead to a rise towards 1010 CNY, while falling below 890 CNY may result in further declines [3] - The market is currently at a critical juncture, necessitating close monitoring of breakout movements [3]

Group 1 - The U.S. federal government shutdown has entered its 28th day, significantly impacting various sectors of American society [1] - Approximately 15,000 air traffic controllers and 50,000 Transportation Security Administration (TSA) workers are required to work without pay, leading to increased flight delays and cancellations [3] - Major airlines, including Southwest Airlines, American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, and United Airlines, reported flight delays ranging from 19% to 34% on the 27th [3] Group 2 - Passengers have expressed frustration over flight delays, with some altering their travel plans to avoid flying [5][7] - Federal employees from other departments are also experiencing increasing financial pressure due to the shutdown [7] - Employees from NASA and the Department of Defense have voiced concerns about the uncertainty of their return to work and the financial strain caused by not receiving paychecks [9][11]

Group 1 - The stock price of Nvidia (NVDA.US) has reached a new high, contributing to the overall performance of the stock market, which has also hit historical peaks [1] - The U.S. economy is described as the strongest in history, with significant declines in energy prices, although beef prices remain high [3] Group 2 - The government shutdown is attributed to the Democrats, who are expected to return to negotiations, suggesting a potential resolution without formal agreements [3] - Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is praised for her intelligence and energy, indicating positive international relations [3]