螺纹钢产业链日报 2025/4/29 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。 本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人 不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | RB主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,100.00 | -29↓ RB主力合约持仓量(手) | 2017637 | -15299↓ | | | RB合约前20名净持仓(手) | -72411 | -773↓ RB5-10合约价差(元/吨) | -55 | +14↑ | | | RB上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 199647 | 0.00 HC2510-RB2510合约价差(元/吨) | 110 | + ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the banking sector, emphasizing the investment value of high-dividend, low-valuation bank stocks, particularly focusing on China Merchants Bank and Agricultural Bank of China [1][2]. Core Insights - The Central Political Bureau's recent meeting has signaled a more proactive macroeconomic policy, including potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, which are expected to enhance liquidity and support the banking sector [2][3]. - The report highlights the importance of structural monetary policy tools aimed at supporting technological innovation, consumption expansion, and stabilizing foreign trade, which will improve banks' ability to serve the real economy [2][3]. - The banking sector is currently facing uncertainties due to U.S.-China trade negotiations, but the high dividend yield of bank stocks remains attractive for investors [1][2]. Summary by Sections Banking Sector Performance - The banking index decreased by 0.32% this week, underperforming the Wind All A Index, which rose by 1.15% [11][12]. - Among different types of banks, state-owned banks saw an average increase of 0.89%, while joint-stock banks experienced an average decline of 1.28% [11][14]. Market Liquidity - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 600 billion yuan MLF operation, resulting in a net liquidity injection of 500 billion yuan, indicating a continued effort to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system [3][29]. - The report notes a decrease in SHIBOR overnight rates to 1.57%, reflecting a broader trend of declining interest rates in the interbank market [32][33]. Bond Market - The bond market saw a total financing of 22,454.7 billion yuan this week, with a net financing of 1,215.2 billion yuan, indicating a decrease compared to the previous week [40][44]. - The report highlights that the issuance of financial bonds and medium-term notes has increased, contributing to the overall financing activity in the bond market [40][44]. Individual Bank Performance - Agricultural Bank of China recorded the highest stock price increase among state-owned banks at 2.40%, while joint-stock banks generally underperformed, with an average decline of 1.28% [14][27]. - The report also notes that the average P/B ratio for state-owned banks is 0.69X, indicating potential undervaluation in the sector [17][27].

Group 1: Macroeconomic and Financial Data - The central bank conducted 279 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday with an operating rate of 1.50%, resulting in a net daily investment of 103 billion yuan after 176 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured [3] - This week, 504.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases in the central bank's open - market operations will mature, with 176 billion, 220.5 billion, and 108 billion yuan maturing from Monday to Wednesday respectively, and the funds due on Thursday and Friday will be postponed to the first trading day after the holiday [4] - The meeting mentioned "timely reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts", creating new structural monetary policy tools, and establishing new policy - based financial tools, but the urgency of short - term reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts has decreased [4] Group 2: Bond Market - DR001 closed at 1.45% with a - 1.96bp change, DR007 at 1.75% with a 3.59bp change, GC001 at 1.90% with a 21.50bp change, and GC007 at 1.85% with a 7.00bp change [3] - SHBOR 3M remained at 1.75% with no change, LPR 5 - year at 3.60% with no change, 1 - year treasury bond at 1.46% with a 1.00bp change, 5 - year treasury bond at 1.54% with a - 0.50bp change, 10 - year treasury bond at 1.65% with a - 1.25bp change, and 10 - year US treasury bond at 4.29% with a - 3.00bp change [3] Group 3: Stock Index Futures and Spot Market - Yesterday, the CSI 300 fell 0.14% to 3781.6, the SSE 50 rose 0.09% to 2651.2, the CSI 500 fell 0.51% to 5598.3, and the CSI 1000 fell 1.05% to 5877.1. The trading volume of the two markets was 1.0564 trillion yuan, a decrease of 57.2 billion yuan from last Friday [5] - Industry sectors generally declined, with real estate services, real estate development, food and beverage, tourism and hotels, engineering consulting services, decoration and building materials, and commercial department stores leading the decline, while only banks, games, jewelry, steel, and power industries rose [5] - The Politburo meeting on April 25 released limited incremental information on aggregate policies, emphasizing the implementation of existing policies and the refinement of support policies in specific areas [6] - The short - term trend of stock indices faces a situation of mixed long and short factors. The uncertainty of the Trump administration's actions complicates Sino - US tariff negotiations, while the strong Q1 economic data in China reduces the urgency of short - term incremental policies [6] - The short - term recommendation is to hold a light position in stock index futures and wait for the market direction to become clear. Considering the high overseas uncertainty during the May Day holiday and the low option volatility, a double - buying strategy for stock index options can be considered before the holiday [6] Group 4: Stock Index Futures Premium and Discount - The IF premium/discount rates for the current - quarter, next - month, current - month, and next - quarter contracts are 10.41%, 9.29%, 7.33%, and 5.51% respectively [7] - The IH premium/discount rates for the corresponding contracts are 4.46%, 6.03%, 5.41%, and 3.56% respectively [7] - The IC premium/discount rates for the corresponding contracts are 15.32%, 15.66%, 11.48%, and 9.61% respectively [7] - The IM premium/discount rates for the corresponding contracts are 16.86%, 17.35%, 13.18%, and 11.40% respectively [7]

2025 年 4 月 29 日 股指期货将震荡整理 黄金、白银期货将偏强震荡 多晶 硅、碳酸锂、原油、PTA、PVC、豆粕期货将偏弱震荡 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货将震荡整理：IF2506 阻力位 3748 和 3768 点，支撑位 3716 和 3705 点；IH2506 阻力位 2640 和 2650 点，支撑位 2612 和 2605 点；IC2506 阻力位 5510 和 5561 点，支撑位 5443 和 5420 点；IM2506 阻力位 57 ...

Market Overview - On April 28, the market experienced slight declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.2%, the Shenzhen Component down by 0.62%, and the ChiNext Index down by 0.65%[2] - The total trading volume was 1.08 trillion, a decrease of approximately 60 billion compared to the previous trading day[1] Sector Performance - Most sectors declined, with notable drops in real estate, social services, automotive, and construction materials[1] - Only a few sectors, including banking, steel, and utilities, showed slight increases, indicating a weak market sentiment overall[1] Capital Flow - On April 28, there was a net outflow of 0.28 billion in the Shanghai market and a net outflow of 55.79 billion in the Shenzhen market[3] - The top three sectors for capital inflow were electricity, semiconductors, and IT services, while real estate development, automotive parts, and communication equipment saw the largest outflows[3] Economic Indicators - In Q1, 3.08 million new urban jobs were created, an increase of 50,000 year-on-year, indicating a stable employment situation[7] - The People's Bank of China plans to implement new structural monetary policy tools to maintain liquidity and support employment and economic growth[4] Industry Developments - The development of flexible microelectrode implantation robots for brain-computer interfaces has progressed, supporting advancements in brain science[8] - The National Energy Administration is promoting the research and development of advanced nuclear technologies, including fourth-generation nuclear power and small modular reactors[9] Investment Trends - Public REITs have seen a significant increase, with 7 new listings this year, bringing the total to 65, and several more projects in the pipeline[12] - The newly launched free cash flow-themed ETFs have collectively raised over 10 billion, with 12 already established[13]

晨报 成材 成材：缺乏驱动 钢价整理 逻辑：中国人民银行副行长邹澜表示，中国人民银行将用好用足适度 宽松的货币政策，根据国内外经济形势和金融市场运行情况，适时降准降 息，保持流动性充裕，创设新的结构性货币政策工具，围绕稳就业稳增长 重点领域精准加力，做好金融支持。4 月 28 日 Mysteel 统计 76 家独立电 弧炉建筑钢材钢厂平均成本为 3351 元/吨，日环比增加 2 元/吨，平均利 润为-69 元/吨，谷电利润为 36 元/吨，日环比增加 11 元/吨。4 月 21 日 -4 月 27 日，全球船厂共接获 16 艘新船订单。其中中国船厂接获 10 艘新 船订单；韩国船厂接获 6 艘新船订单。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 成 材：武秋婷 成文时间： 2025 年 4 月 29 日 重要声明： 后期关注/风险因素：宏观政策；下游需求情况。 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资 ...

行 业 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 观 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 HTTP://WWW.QH168.COM.CN 1 / 8 请务必仔细阅读正文后免责申明 点 精 萃 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-80128600-8632 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-80128600-8631 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-80128600-8621 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-80128600-8630 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-80128600-8622 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 ...

｜2025年4月29日星期二｜ NO.3 国家发改委赵辰昕：对实现今年经济社会发展任务充满信心 国家发展改革委副主任赵辰昕4月28日在国新办新闻发布会上表示，将加力推动既定政策的落地见效， 包括提振消费专项行动，用好今年国家层面5万亿元的投资资金，加快设立国家创业投资引导基金等， 这些政策大部分将在二季度落地。会不断强化政策取向的一致性，不管国际形势如何变化，我们将锚定 发展目标，保持战略定力，集中精力办好自己的事，对实现今年经济社会发展任务充满信心。 NO.4 商务部盛秋平：消费品以旧换新政策的实施合计拉动消费超7200亿元 4月28日，商务部盛秋平在国新办新闻发布会上表示，截至4月27日，消费品以旧换新政策的实施合计拉 动消费超过7200亿元。政策实施以来，一大批外贸外资企业得到了政策支持。智能、绿色、健康、时尚 的消费新产品走进千家万户。目前已有超过1.2亿人次享受到了真金白银的补贴优惠。 NO.1 我国将出台实施稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展的若干举措 据新华社报道，国家发展改革委副主任赵辰昕4月28日在国新办举行的新闻发布会上表示，我国将出台 实施稳就业、稳经济、推动高质量发展的若干举措。 NO.2 中 ...

// 今日关注 // // 宏观预警 // 1、外交部：中美双方并没有就关税问题进行磋商或谈判 外交部发言人郭嘉昆主持例行记者会。有记者提问，据报道，美国总统特朗普4月22日接受《时代》杂 志采访时表示，中方领导人给他打了电话，请问中方对此有何评论?中美是否在谈判？郭嘉昆表示，"据 我了解，近期两国元首没有通话。我要重申，中美双方并没有就关税问题进行磋商或谈判。" 2、十四届全国人大常委会第十五次会议继续审议民营经济促进法草案 十四届全国人大常委会第十五次会议4月27日下午对民营经济促进法草案三次审议稿进行了分组审议。 常委会组成人员表示，草案经过两次审议修改，充分吸收各方面意见建议，进一步充实服务、保障民营 经济发展相关举措，进一步规范执法行为，深入推进严格规范公正文明执法，结构合理、内容全面，已 经比较成熟，建议本次常委会会议表决通过。 3、央行：将适时降准降息，创设新的结构性货币政策工具 中国人民银行副行长邹澜在国新办新闻发布会上表示，将根据国内外经济形势和金融市场运行情况，适 时降准降息，保持流动性充裕，发挥好货币政策工具箱总量和结构双重功能，创设新的结构性货币政策 工具，围绕稳就业、稳增长的重点领域 ...

Group 1 - The meeting between the Governor of the People's Bank of China and the IMF President signals China's commitment to deepening international financial cooperation, potentially enhancing cross-border capital flows and exchange rate policy coordination [1] - The dialogue may create a more stable external environment for domestic financial institutions to participate in global governance, with opportunities for innovation in cross-border payment and offshore RMB business [1] - The collaboration could optimize the allocation logic of sovereign funds and foreign institutions towards Chinese assets due to policy alignment [1] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China plans to implement more proactive macro policies, including potential reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions, to maintain ample liquidity and support key areas for employment and growth [2] - The expansion of the monetary policy toolbox highlights a structural focus, which may improve the financing environment for real enterprises, particularly in technology innovation and green transformation sectors [2] - The reasonable liquidity in the interbank market may alleviate pressure on small financial institutions, although pricing power disparities could intensify industry restructuring [2] Group 3 - In March, China's international balance of payments for goods and services trade reached 4.27 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6%, with a trade surplus of 603.4 billion yuan [3] - The improvement in foreign trade data is expected to reinforce the safe-haven attributes of RMB assets, injecting stability into the capital market [3] Group 4 - In Q1 2025, China's gold consumption decreased by 5.96% year-on-year, while gold production increased by 1.49% to 87.24 tons [4] - The significant structural differentiation in gold consumption reflects a trend towards physical gold as a safe-haven asset amid geopolitical risks, benefiting gold mining companies [4] - The retail jewelry sector faces pressure, but innovations in traditional gold and lightweight products may provide new opportunities, especially among younger consumers [4] Group 5 - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) shares reached a new historical high, closing at 7.29 yuan per share, up 1.11% [5] - The continuous rise in bank stocks, particularly among the four major state-owned banks, indicates a market re-evaluation of high dividend assets [6] - The deepening of financial supply-side reforms and the improvement of deposit rate marketization may accelerate the wealth management transformation of leading banks, reshaping the industry valuation system [6]