Group 1 - The article presents an optimistic outlook for the A-share market in 2025, particularly highlighting structural opportunities in the second half of the year, with the potential for the Chinese stock market to outperform overseas markets [2] - Since 2024, the net financing scale of A-share listed companies has significantly decreased from 1 trillion yuan in 2023 to 124.9 billion yuan in 2024, which supports valuation recovery [2] - The implementation of stock repurchase policies, including the "stock repurchase and increase loan" policy introduced by the People's Bank of China and regulatory bodies, is expected to boost stock prices and improve market liquidity [2][3] Group 2 - The macroeconomic challenges and geopolitical uncertainties remain, but investment strategies should focus on technology innovation and high-dividend assets, with an increase in allocation to the Chinese stock market, including Hong Kong stocks [3] - Historical experience shows that the implementation of repurchase policies often stabilizes the market, and with the deepening of the stock repurchase loan policy, the investment value of the A-share market is expected to remain positive [3]

Core Viewpoint - In the current volatile market environment, investors are increasingly focused on how to achieve stable asset appreciation, particularly in a context of declining interest rates and rising market uncertainty. The search for asset allocation strategies that provide stable cash flow and effectively mitigate market risks has become a common concern among various investors. The dividend low-volatility strategy, characterized by "high dividend yield and low volatility," is gaining attention as a potential solution to these challenges [1]. Interest Rate Environment - The global economy has largely entered a low or even negative interest rate era, with significant reductions in deposit rates by major banks in China. For instance, as of May 20, 2025, the interest rate for one-year fixed deposits fell below 1%, and the average interest rate for current deposits dropped to 0.05% [2]. This environment has compressed the yields of traditional fixed-income products, leading to a scarcity of stable assets, while dividend assets are becoming increasingly attractive due to their stable cash flow and higher dividend yields [2]. Policy Support - Regulatory bodies have intensified their focus on corporate dividend policies, with the introduction of measures linking dividend payouts to financing qualifications and shareholder behavior. For example, the "New National Nine Articles" issued in April 2024 aims to enhance shareholder return awareness among listed companies [3]. Additionally, new rules effective from January 1, 2025, will impose penalties on companies with low dividend payouts, further encouraging higher dividend distributions [3][4]. Fund Flow Dynamics - There is a notable shift in fund preferences towards dividend assets, driven by both policy support and changes in market dynamics. Long-term funds, such as insurance and pension funds, are increasingly allocating capital to high-dividend assets, with projections indicating an influx of approximately 600 billion to 800 billion yuan over the next three years [6]. This trend is expected to enhance the valuation of dividend assets and benefit related funds, such as the TaiKang Dividend Low-Volatility ETF [6]. Market Conditions - The current A-share market is characterized by volatility, influenced by international trade tensions and geopolitical risks. Despite maintaining stable growth, domestic economic indicators show signs of weakening, leading to a challenging investment environment. In this context, dividend low-volatility assets are positioned as a strategic choice for investors seeking stability and returns [19][20]. Investment Strategy - The dividend low-volatility strategy combines high dividend yield and low volatility characteristics, providing a robust investment framework. The CSI Dividend Low-Volatility Index selects stocks based on liquidity, consistent dividend payments, and low volatility, aiming to deliver stable returns while minimizing risk [14][15]. This strategy is particularly appealing in turbulent market conditions, as it has historically demonstrated strong defensive capabilities [19][20]. Conclusion - Overall, the combination of supportive policies, increasing fund inflows, and favorable market conditions positions dividend low-volatility assets as an attractive investment opportunity. These assets not only offer stable returns in a low-interest-rate environment but also serve as a defensive strategy in volatile markets, making them a preferred choice for investors seeking to navigate economic cycles effectively [20].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the ongoing trend of cash dividends in the Hong Kong stock market, with bank stocks leading the sector in total cash dividends [1][2][3] - Since the beginning of the year, the total cash dividends from bank stocks have reached 238.6 billion HKD, making it the highest among 30 sectors in the Hong Kong Stock Connect [3][6] - China Construction Bank has the highest single cash dividend of 96.9 billion HKD, followed by other major banks like Bank of China, Bank of Communications, and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, each exceeding 10 billion HKD in dividends [6] Group 2 - In a low-interest-rate environment, high-dividend assets are attracting significant capital inflows, with net inflows into bank stocks from southbound funds totaling 72.9 billion HKD over the past three months, the highest among all sectors [7][8] - The AH bank stock index has shown a year-to-date increase of over 20%, outperforming the CSI All-Share Index by more than 6% [1][15] Group 3 - The average valuation of H-shares among 15 AH-listed banks is 0.54 times price-to-book (PB), which is significantly lower than the A-share average of 0.65 times PB, indicating a valuation gap [11][12] - The average dividend yield for H-shares is 4.95%, which is 92 basis points higher than the A-share yield of 4.03%, showcasing a strong high-dividend advantage [12][13] - Among the 15 AH-listed banks, 14 H-shares are cheaper in terms of valuation compared to their A-share counterparts, while only China Merchants Bank has a lower valuation in A-shares than in H-shares [12][13] Group 4 - The bank AH index, which includes 14 cheaper H-shares and China Merchants Bank A-shares, is based on a monthly selection of undervalued stocks in the AH market, incorporating a rotation strategy [14] - The bank AH total return index has increased by over 20% year-to-date, compared to a 13.78% increase in the CSI bank total return index [15]

Core Viewpoint - Xinhua Insurance has acquired a 5.09% stake in Hangzhou Bank, becoming its fourth-largest shareholder, reflecting a trend of insurance companies increasing investments in high-dividend bank stocks in 2025 [1][2][4]. Group 1: Transaction Details - Xinhua Insurance purchased 330 million shares of Hangzhou Bank from the Commonwealth Bank of Australia at a price of 13.095 yuan per share, totaling approximately 4.317 billion yuan [2]. - The transaction was initiated in January 2025 and completed with the approval from the National Financial Regulatory Administration [2][3]. - Following the acquisition, Xinhua Insurance holds a total of 363 million shares in Hangzhou Bank, solidifying its position as a significant stakeholder [2]. Group 2: Industry Trends - In 2025, insurance companies have made 15 equity acquisitions, with a notable focus on bank stocks, indicating a strategic shift towards high-dividend assets [4][5]. - The preference for bank stocks is attributed to declining long-term interest rates and the need for asset reallocation, as insurance companies seek stable dividend returns [5][6]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment - Recent regulatory initiatives have encouraged insurance funds to invest in the capital market, aiming to enhance the stability and proportion of insurance capital in A-shares [7][8]. - The government has introduced policies to facilitate long-term investments by insurance companies, including lowering risk factors for stock investments and promoting a "long money, long investment" strategy [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant returns achieved by investors in high-dividend assets over the past decade, despite the Shanghai Composite Index remaining below its peak level from ten years ago [1][5]. Group 1: Investment Performance - Even if investors had bought at the peak of 5178 points ten years ago, the Bank AH Total Return Index has achieved over 100% cumulative returns, while the Hong Kong Dividend Low Volatility Total Return Index has risen by 88% [3]. - Investors focusing on high-dividend assets have quietly reaped substantial rewards over time, showcasing the power of compounding returns [5]. Group 2: Institutional Investment Trends - Insurance companies, as long-term investors, are increasingly favoring high-dividend sectors like banking. For instance, China Ping An has continuously increased its stake in Agricultural Bank of China H-shares, reaching a holding of 15.15% [4][6]. - The trend of insurance companies acquiring stakes in banks is driven by the need for stable cash returns in a low-interest-rate environment, with significant investments made in high-dividend stocks [6]. Group 3: Southbound Capital Flows - Southbound capital has shown a strong preference for high-dividend assets, with net purchases in the banking sector leading among 30 sectors, totaling 209.9 billion yuan over the past year [7][8]. - As of the end of May, southbound funds held 685.8 billion yuan in 14 Hong Kong bank stocks, with a year-to-date increase of 174 billion shares, reflecting a market value increase of over 182 billion yuan [7]. Group 4: ETF Performance - The Bank ETF Preferred (517900) has outperformed the market, tracking the Bank AH Total Return Index with a nearly 20% increase since the beginning of the year, compared to a 12% rise in the China Securities Bank Total Return Index [9]. - The Hong Kong Dividend Low Volatility ETF (520550) has announced a monthly dividend of 0.004 yuan, with a yield of 0.37% based on its net asset value [12][13]. - The China Securities Dividend ETF (515080) has consistently provided dividends above 5%, making it attractive in a low-interest-rate environment [14].

2025 年 6 月 9 日，雪球发起 #分红季，上雪球 #主题活动，深度探讨红利策略，和基金公司、投资者共 同挖掘高股息资产价值，助力投资者把握这一轮 "真金白银" 的投资机遇。 红利资产作为穿越市场波动的 "现金奶牛"，在雪球上受到了投资者的极大关注。沪深300成分股中，金 融、能源、消费等行业分红稳定性突出，部分科技企业(如半导体、光伏龙头)也加入了高分红阵营。 雪球举办此次活动旨在帮助更多投资者理解红利投资的本质，从而抓住投资机会。 作为本次活动的核心，雪球将围绕 "红利策略" 打造一系列创意互动玩法，为投资者提供兼具专业性与 趣味性的交流平台。此次活动涵盖了分红主题征文、夏日红利诗会、寻找红利锦鲤、年中红利故事会等 多种创意互动玩法，各位球友上雪球分享个人红利投资故事、红利投资策略，或看好哪些分红上市公 司、红利基金产品等，优质内容还会随机获得现金红包打赏！ 过去两年，在国内宏观经济承压和海外高利率双重压力下，市场风险偏好低迷，被视为具有"类债属 性"和"防御能力"的高股息资产表现相对强势。监管逐步出台了一系列针对上市公司分红的相关政策， 持续完善和优化上市公司现金分红规则，以引导公司合理分红、提高 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This year, public - offering equity funds have outperformed the market. Leading equity active funds are a mix of focused, rotational, and gambling types in terms of industries, with mid - growth and mid - high valuation styles. Their returns mainly come from stock - picking and trading abilities, and they are more concentrated in the consumer sector. Leading equity quantitative funds may deviate towards large - cap and value, with less under - allocation of finance and less over - allocation of machinery and electronics compared to other public - offering quantitative funds [1][14][33]. - In June 2025, the equity market's sentiment will continue to recover, and investors should take advantage of trading opportunities; the 10Y Treasury bond rate may decline by 9BP to 1.60%; gold should be continuously allocated; the real - estate supply - side pressure will rise; foreign capital will continue to flow in slightly, and the Indian equity market will have a phased rebound, but its current allocation value is relatively limited [2][35]. - In terms of market style, it is recommended to focus on the expected growth style, and the institutional attention to small - cap stocks is accelerating [4][91]. - For industry allocation, the high - probability and high - odds strategy recommends non - ferrous metals, electronics, power equipment and new energy, computers, machinery, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery; the industry clearance and reversal strategy recommends non - ferrous metals, electronics, and communications [5][107]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Year's Characteristics of Leading - Performance Funds 3.1.1 Equity Active Funds - As of May 30, 2025, public - offering equity active funds have achieved good results. The average absolute return is 2.51%, the median is 1.13%, and the proportion of positive absolute returns is 57.30%. The average excess return relative to their respective benchmarks is 2.45%, the median is 1.49%, and the proportion of positive excess returns is 61.19%. The average information ratio is 2.67%, and the average information ratio of the top 20 is 26.1% [10][12]. - The top 20 equity active funds with an information ratio and established for more than one year are a mix of focused, rotational, and gambling types in industries, mainly with mid - growth and mid - high valuation styles, and their scale is generally below 1 billion. There are three main models: focused on consumption - mid - growth and high - valuation, industry rotation - mid - growth and mid - valuation, and industry gambling - mid - growth and high - valuation [14][15]. - The returns of these three models mainly come from stock - picking and trading contributions. Style and industry returns contribute relatively little to the total return. The leading - performance equity active funds' returns mainly come from stock - picking and trading abilities [19]. - In terms of industry distribution, these funds are mainly concentrated in the consumer sector. Focused funds are concentrated in medicine and food and beverage; rotational funds are relatively diversified, mainly in consumer and manufacturing sectors; gambling funds are concentrated in food and beverage, basic chemicals, and commerce and retail [21]. 3.1.2 Equity Quantitative Funds - In terms of style exposure relative to the benchmark, the top 20 public - offering quantitative funds in terms of information ratio may deviate towards large - cap and value. They have less deviation in small - cap and greater deviation in non - linear small - cap, indicating an increase in large - cap stocks. They also have higher exposure to undervaluation factors, showing a preference for value, and obvious deviations in low - liquidity and low - volatility [29]. - In terms of industry exposure, these top 20 funds have less under - allocation of finance and less over - allocation of machinery and electronics compared to other public - offering quantitative funds. They also have over - allocation in construction and food and beverage [31]. 3.1.3 Summary This year, public - offering equity funds have outperformed the market. Leading equity active funds are a mix of different types in industries, with mid - growth and mid - high valuation styles, and their returns mainly come from stock - picking and trading abilities, and are concentrated in the consumer sector. Leading equity quantitative funds may deviate towards large - cap and value, with different industry exposure characteristics [33]. 3.2 Quantitative Views on Major Asset Classes 3.2.1 Equity: Sentiment Continues to Recover, Seize Trading Opportunities in June - In May, the overall sentiment recovered, with a slight decline in the financial sector and a steady recovery in the industrial sector. The full - A net profit in Q2 may further improve [39]. - Credit expansion has weakened, and the structure still needs improvement. It is estimated that the new social financing in May 2025 will be about 2.33 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.27 trillion yuan year - on - year. Government bonds will continue to support the growth of social financing [45]. - The market will remain in a volatile pattern in June. Investors can increase excess returns by seizing trading opportunities. The market is in a volatile pattern, and the overall market center may gradually rise, but the pace may be slow. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index has a healthy microstructure, and investors can buy low and sell high [48]. 3.2.2 Interest Rates: The 10Y Treasury Bond Rate May Decline by 9BP to 1.60% in June - Since 2023, the out - of - sample direction prediction of the 10Y Treasury bond rate has been correct for 20 months, with a winning rate of 69%. - Economic growth, inflation, and short - term interest rate factors are declining, while the debt - leverage factor has slightly increased. Overall, the 10Y Treasury bond rate may continue to decline in June [35]. 3.2.3 Gold: Continue to Allocate - Since 2023, the out - of - sample direction prediction of gold has been correct for 22 months, with a winning rate of 76%. - Various factors jointly drive the continued rise of gold. The US economic factor is declining, the fiscal factor is rising but at a slower pace, the employment factor is recovering, and the external debt factor is increasing [62]. - The slowdown in the upward rate of the fiscal factor is due to the reduction in defense spending, while overall consumption and investment expenditures have not declined [67]. 3.2.4 Real Estate: Supply - Side Pressure Rises - As of May 31, 2025, the three - month moving average of the real - estate industry pressure index is 0.569, indicating an increase in overall industry pressure. The supply - side pressure has increased due to the weak performance at the start - up end, while the demand - side pressure is basically the same as last month [72]. 3.2.5 Overseas: Foreign Capital Continues to Flow in Slightly, and Indian Equity Has a Phased Rebound - In May, there was a small inflow of foreign capital into the Indian equity market, with a net FPI inflow of $2.344 billion. The NIFTY 50 index rose 1.71% in May. - India is currently in a stage of foreign - capital outflow and valuation downward - adjustment due to lower - than - expected profit growth, and its current allocation value is relatively limited [80][88]. 3.3 Quantitative Views on Binary Styles 3.3.1 Comprehensive View on Styles: Recommend Focusing on the Expected Growth Style - The advantage gap of actual - growth assets continues to recover, and it is recommended to maintain the allocation of actual - growth strategies. The advantage gap of expected - growth assets continues to recover, and it is recommended to increase the allocation of expected - growth strategies. - The ROE advantage gap is declining marginally, with low crowding, and the profitability strategy is not recommended although it has short - term performance. The crowding of high - dividend assets remains high, and there is a crowding risk for pure dividend assets. - Currently, both Δg and Δgf are expanding, and the expected growth sector is more worthy of attention. It is recommended to focus on the growth style in June [91]. 3.3.2 Supplementary Observation on Styles: Institutional Attention to Small - Cap Stocks is Accelerating - The downward trend of the US Treasury bond rate is unlikely to reverse. Although there may still be short - term opportunities for dividends, it is expected to have reached an inflection point in the long run. - In May, the institutional attention to small - cap stocks relative to large - cap stocks continued to accelerate. The crowding of the small - cap style increased slightly in May and remains at a high level. There is no significant difference between large - cap and small - cap stocks in June based on the seasonal effect since 2010 [95][100][105]. 3.4 Quantitative Views on Industry Allocation 3.4.1 Industry Recommendation: High - Probability and High - Odds Strategy - This strategy recommends non - ferrous metals, electronics, power equipment and new energy, computers, machinery, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery. Since 2024, the absolute return is 12.59%, and the excess return relative to the equal - weighted benchmark of CITIC first - level industries is 0.97% [5][110][114]. 3.4.2 Industry Recommendation: Industry Clearance and Reversal Strategy - This strategy recommends non - ferrous metals, electronics, and communications. It defines the state where both industry demand and supply are declining as the industry clearance state, and the state where the demand side recovers after clearance, the supply side has not turned around, and the concentration declines as the end - of - clearance reversal state [116][124].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has become increasingly vibrant, with significant gains in the Hang Seng Index and a surge in new listings, driven by a shift in global macroeconomic narratives favoring Chinese assets over U.S. assets [3][11]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of early 2025, the Hang Seng Index has risen by 17.65%, leading global stock markets [3]. - Notable stocks such as Moutai Group, Pop Mart, and Lao Pu Gold have seen dramatic price increases, contributing to a phenomenon in the capital market [3]. - The IPO of CATL raised approximately HKD 353 million, marking the largest IPO globally for the year [3]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Individual investors are actively participating in the Hong Kong market, with reports of substantial profits from new stock listings, such as a 25.20% increase on the first day of Heng Rui Pharmaceutical's listing [3][11]. - Investors like Yang Guang have shown confidence in specific stocks like Xiaomi, which has seen its price increase nearly 300% from HKD 15 to nearly HKD 60 per share [6][7]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investors are adopting diverse strategies, with some focusing on high-dividend stocks to secure stable income, while others are betting on growth stocks in the tech sector [9][10]. - The trend of investing in high-dividend stocks is particularly appealing due to their perceived stability compared to high-growth, high-volatility tech stocks [10]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The Hong Kong stock market has undergone significant reforms since 2018, improving liquidity and valuation, which has made it more attractive for retail investors [12][13]. - The average daily trading volume in the first four months of 2025 surged by 144% year-on-year to HKD 25.04 billion, with southbound funds accounting for about 25% of the trading volume [13].

6月首个交易日，A股迎来"开门红"，个股普涨，交投活跃。 保险加仓践行"长钱长投" 6月首个交易日，银行板块再度崛起，特别是中小银行指数，上涨超2%。其中，部分城商行上涨超 5%，对指数助力明显。银行股的走强与大型金融机构加仓，特别是保险资金举牌有关。今年以来，保 险公司举牌的银行包括邮储银行、招商银行、农业银行、杭州银行、中信银行等。据统计，截至5月 底，7家保险公司年内累计举牌15次，银行股被举牌次数最多，此外还涉及公用事业、能源、交通运输 等行业，这不仅超过前年全年的举牌量，也超过去年前9个月的举牌量。在利率下行的环境下，保险资 金通过投资高股息股票来获取稳定现金收益，增加长期股权投资则有助于获得稳定投资收益。 综上所述，在消息面稳定的背景下，投资者信心进一步增强，无论是事件驱动带动的热点题材，还 是"长钱长投"下的趋势性板块，都为市场注入了活力，股指有望保持稳中有涨格局。（作者单位：银河 期货） 政策也鼓励保险资金充分发挥耐心资本、长期资本的优势，加大入市稳市力度。2023年10月，保险资金 长期投资改革试点启动，之后连续三批扩大保险资金长期投资试点范围，试点规模累计达2220亿元，为 市场不断注入增 ...

险资2024年以来再掀举牌潮，至今热度未减。 据证券时报记者统计，截至5月底，7家保险公司今年共举牌了15次，不仅超过2023年全年举牌量，也超 过2024年前9个月举牌量。 举牌潮持续 5月中旬，平安人寿发布举牌公告，平安资管受托该公司资金投资农业银行（601288）H股，5月12日达 到农业银行H股股本的10%。 这是平安人寿今年第6次举牌。其他举牌保险公司还包括中国人寿（601628）、新华保险（601336）、 阳光人寿、长城人寿、瑞众人寿、中邮人寿等。 银行股作为高股息红利股的代表，是大型险资偏好的类型。各家保险公司中，中国平安对银行股"扫货 式"举牌颇具代表性。去年年底以来，中国平安及旗下公司大手笔买入多家银行股H股，多次触发举 牌。 最近10年，保险行业出现过三轮举牌浪潮，前两次分别是2015年和2020年，2024年以来险资开启了第三 轮举牌潮。 华泰证券分析，2015年举牌潮主要受高负债成本的万能险扩张、"偿二代"下长期股权投资节省资本消耗 等因素驱动。2020年和2024年举牌潮动力来自利率下行环境下险资投资压力增大等原因，险资需要通过 投资高息股来获取稳定现金收益，同时增加长期股权投资有 ...