Group 1: CPI Analysis - July CPI year-on-year is 0%, better than the expected -0.1%, indicating stability compared to last year [1] - Month-on-month CPI decreased by 0.1%, weaker than seasonal trends, with food prices showing significant weakness [1] - Core CPI increased by 0.8% year-on-year, the highest in 1.5 years, driven by demand recovery and the end of commodity subsidies [1] Group 2: PPI Analysis - July PPI year-on-year is -3.6%, below the expected -3.4%, consistent with the previous value [2] - Month-on-month PPI decreased by 0.2%, showing a slight improvement of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [2] - Specific industries like oil extraction and processing showed positive month-on-month changes, while non-metallic mining and manufacturing declined [2] Group 3: Macro Economic Outlook - The low CPI and PPI indicate that overall inflation remains low, allowing for a moderately loose monetary policy [3] - The bond market is expected to see a gradual upward correction in convertible bond valuations due to increased demand for fixed income [3] - The issuance pace of local government special bonds may accelerate, creating temporary supply pressure, but strong demand from long-term stable funds remains [3]

Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Analysis - In July, Sichuan's Consumer Price Index (CPI) experienced a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, reversing from a previous month of stability [1] - Year-on-year, the CPI decreased by 0.4%, with the decline rate widening by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] - The rise in CPI was driven by increased prices in tourism, transportation, accommodation, and refined oil [1] - Specific price changes included a 3.9% decrease in fresh vegetable prices, a 1.7% decrease in fresh fruit prices, and a 0.5% increase in pork prices [1] - The slight increase in pork prices is attributed to industry measures aimed at reducing production capacity and improving supply-demand balance [1] - During the peak travel season, air ticket prices rose by 20.1%, travel agency fees increased by 13.9%, hotel accommodation prices went up by 5.0%, and transportation rental fees rose by 4.8% [1] Group 2: Producer Price Index (PPI) Analysis - In July, the Producer Price Index (PPI) continued its downward trend, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.5%, and the decline rate expanded by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [2] - Month-on-month, the PPI fell by 1.2%, with the decline rate narrowing by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [2] - Contributing factors to the PPI decline included seasonal decreases in water and electricity prices, as well as an increase in the scale of market-oriented electricity transactions [2] - The prices in the black metal smelting and rolling processing industry continued to decline, along with ongoing decreases in the non-metallic mineral products industry [2]

Inflation Overview - July CPI year-on-year growth slightly exceeded consensus expectations, while PPI year-on-year growth fell below expectations[1] - July CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, remaining flat year-on-year, with core CPI rising by 0.8%[2] - Service prices rose by 0.5% year-on-year, while consumer goods prices fell by 0.4%[2] CPI Analysis - Year-on-year growth in July was driven by other goods and services (8.0%), clothing (1.7%), and healthcare (0.5%), while food and tobacco prices fell by 0.8%[2] - Food prices contributed to a 0.29 percentage point decline in CPI year-on-year, with gold and platinum jewelry prices adding 0.22 percentage points to CPI growth[2] - Service prices accounted for approximately 0.26 percentage points of the month-on-month CPI increase, representing over 60% of the total CPI rise[6] PPI Insights - July PPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 3.6% year-on-year, with the decline in production materials contributing significantly[15] - The month-on-month decline in PPI was the first narrowing since March, influenced by seasonal factors and international trade uncertainties[16] - The overall PPI decline was impacted by eight industries, which collectively contributed approximately 0.24 percentage points to the PPI decrease[16] Future Outlook - The second half of the year is expected to see a narrowing of the PPI year-on-year decline due to improved supply-demand relationships in certain industries[20] - Seasonal and policy factors may cause fluctuations in various price segments, particularly in food and durable goods[7] - Risks include potential global inflation resurgence and rapid economic downturns in Europe and the U.S.[30]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The current overcapacity is mainly concentrated in the mid - and downstream sectors. In July, the rise in commodity futures prices did not significantly boost inflation, and the PPI remained at a low level. After the implementation of new US tariffs, the "rush to export" phenomenon subsided, putting pressure on external demand. Domestic demand took over from external demand, reversing the trend of the trade balance, and the trade surplus narrowed in July. The policy hedging in areas such as preschool education is still insufficient. Meanwhile, the "anti - involution" concept cannot be falsified in the short term, and the pricing of major asset classes is unlikely to return to the "deflation" narrative of the second quarter due to the total demand shock. If the yield decline is too large, consider taking profits gradually [1]. - The yield of the 10 - year treasury bond slightly declined to 1.69%, and the interest rate structure became steeper. On August 8, the central bank announced a 700 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation, indicating a loosening of liquidity. Although the interest rate has reached a peak in the short term, the decline of long - term interest rates is not smooth due to the disturbances in the stock market and commodity prices [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Market News - **Diplomatic Response**: The Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded to questions about secondary oil tariffs. China conducts normal economic and energy cooperation with countries including Russia, which is legitimate [8]. - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank carried out a 700 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation on August 8, 2025, with a term of 3 months. China's gold reserves increased by 600,000 ounces in July, marking the 9th consecutive month of increase [8]. - **Industrial and Financial Policies**: The State Council issued an opinion on gradually implementing free preschool education, exempting the tuition fees of children in the first year of public kindergartens from the 2025 autumn semester. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will guide the reduction of about 1 million breeding sows. Seven departments including the People's Bank of China jointly issued a guidance on financial support for new - type industrialization. The National Development and Reform Commission will accelerate the approval of new - type policy - based financial instruments, and government bond issuance is expected to speed up, which is expected to drive the recovery of infrastructure investment in the second half of the year [8][9]. - **Economic Data**: In July, the CPI increased by 0.4% month - on - month, up from a 0.1% decline in the previous month, and was flat year - on - year. The core CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year. The PPI decreased by 0.2% month - on - month, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month. China's trade surplus in July was $98.24 billion, down from $114.75 billion in the previous month [10]. - **Off - shore Market**: The RWA registration platform was officially launched in Hong Kong, and three Web3.0 standards were established [10]. Overseas Key Data and Events - **Interest Rate Expectations**: Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman expects three interest rate cuts this year [11]. - **Tariff Policies**: The US may impose additional tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. The EU will suspend tariff counter - measures against the US for 6 months [11].

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - Beijing optimizes housing purchase restrictions, allowing eligible families to buy unlimited homes outside the Fifth Ring Road, and strengthens housing provident fund support in four aspects [2] - China conducts normal economic and trade energy cooperation with Russia, and will take reasonable energy security measures based on national interests [2] - In Q2, China's current account had a surplus of $135.1 billion, while the capital and financial account had a deficit of the same amount [2] - In July, China's CPI rose 0.4% month - on - month and was flat year - on - year, with core CPI rising 0.8% year - on - year. PPI fell 0.2% month - on - month and 3.6% year - on - year [3] - The Trump administration will clarify that imported gold bars should not be taxed [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Hot News - Beijing optimizes housing purchase restrictions and strengthens housing provident fund support [2] - China responds to the potential U.S. secondary tariffs on China for buying Russian oil [2] - China's Q2 current account and capital and financial account balance data are released [2] - China's July CPI and PPI data are announced with corresponding interpretations [3] - The Trump administration will clarify the tariff policy on gold bars [3] Plate Performance - Key focus: Urea, lithium carbonate, caustic soda, asphalt, crude oil [4] - Night - session performance: Non - metallic building materials 2.82%, precious metals 27.87%, oilseeds 12.66%, non - ferrous metals 20.64%, soft commodities 2.46%, coal - coking - steel - ore 14.82%, energy 3.42%, chemicals 11.31%, grains 1.17%, agricultural and sideline products 2.83% [4] Plate Position - The document shows the position changes of commodity futures plates in the past five days [5] Performance of Major Asset Classes - Equity: Shanghai Composite Index - 0.12% daily, 1.73% monthly, 8.45% annually; S&P 500 0.78% daily, 0.79% monthly, 8.63% annually, etc. [6] - Fixed - income: 10 - year Treasury bond futures 0.03% daily, 0.14% monthly, - 0.26% annually; 5 - year Treasury bond futures 0.02% daily, 0.11% monthly, - 0.66% annually, etc. [6] - Commodity: CRB Commodity Index 0.07% daily, - 1.90% monthly, - 0.89% annually; WTI crude oil - 0.81% daily, - 8.47% monthly, - 11.90% annually, etc. [6] - Others: US Dollar Index 0.18% daily, - 1.78% monthly, - 9.42% annually; CBOE Volatility Index - 8.57% daily, - 9.39% monthly, - 12.68% annually [6]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the inflation trends in China, specifically focusing on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) for July 2023, highlighting the challenges faced by the economy and their implications for stock trading strategies [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - In July, China's CPI decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, while PPI fell by 4.4%, both figures being below market expectations, indicating challenges in economic recovery [1]. - The decline in CPI was primarily driven by a 9.5% year-on-year drop in pork prices, which offset the impact of rising fuel prices due to international crude oil increases. However, service consumption in areas such as education, tourism, and healthcare remained active, with service CPI rising by 0.5% [1][3]. - PPI was affected by weak demand and uncertainties surrounding tariffs, leading to declines across upstream, raw materials, and downstream industries. However, the "anti-involution" policy has improved competition in industries like coal and steel, resulting in a narrowing of the month-on-month decline [1][3]. - Future inflation dynamics in China are expected to shift from goods to services, with new pricing laws expanding low-price clearance to the service sector, which is anticipated to provide momentum for overall price recovery [4][5]. Additional Important Content - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to support a mild recovery in PPI, but the impact may be limited due to weak demand-side stimulus. Additionally, uncertainties from new tariffs and trade restrictions from the U.S. may constrain inflation recovery [5]. - Short-term projections indicate that PPI is unlikely to return to positive territory, while CPI may turn positive sooner [5].

7月CPI、PPI数据出来了。7月CPI同比0%，好于预期-0.1%，也就是说和去年差不多，没涨也没跌。环 比-0.1%，弱于季节性。 八大项中，除食品项明显弱于季节性外，其余分项表现强于季节性。食品项价格明显偏弱，对CPI的拉 动大幅下行，虽然猪肉、鲜菜价格基本持平，但在基数效应的影响下，同比拉动率明显下滑。 7月核心CPI同比增加0.8%升至1年半以来最高，主要受需求修复及商品补贴结束的影响，服务和消费品 支撑核心CPI修复。核心CPI环比为0.4%，略强于季节性。服务方面，暑期出行需求旺盛(交通通信环比 +1.5%、教育文娱环比+1.3%)。毕业季也带动房租季节性上涨0.1%，但仍持续弱于季节性。交通工具燃 料3.5%,强于季节性，主要反映前期的油价上涨，家用器具(2.2%)、通信工具(0.3%)、交通工具表现均强 于季节性，延续前月上行趋势，可能与前期降价促销后的价格修复有关，汽车补贴也有收敛迹象，快递 涨价也对终端价格有一定带动。 再来看看PPI数据，7月PPI同比-3.6%，低于预期-3.4%，持平于前值-3.60%。环比-0.2%，较上月提升 0.2pct。PPI生产资料环比-0.2%，同比-4 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and its implications for economic conditions and industry performance, indicating a potential shift towards a mild inflation period driven by policy stimuli and seasonal factors [2][3]. CPI Trends and Economic Phases - In July, the CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, reversing a previous decline, suggesting a possible mild inflation phase ahead due to consumption subsidies and social security policies [2]. - Historical data shows that a rising CPI typically indicates economic recovery and increased demand, while a declining CPI reflects insufficient domestic demand and deflationary pressures [3][4]. Industry Performance During CPI Phases - During periods of rising CPI, essential consumer goods tend to perform well due to their price transmission capabilities, while resource sectors benefit from inflation expectations [4]. - Conversely, in declining CPI phases, defensive sectors show resilience, supported by policy easing and infrastructure investments [4]. Historical CPI Trends - The article outlines various CPI phases from 2015 to 2024, highlighting periods of inflation and deflation, with specific CPI ranges and characteristics for each phase [5]. Industry Performance Analysis - In the CPI rising period from March 2016 to February 2017, the CSI 300 index rose by 19.99%, while the CSI 2000 index increased by 31.56%, indicating a preference for small-cap stocks [7]. - From February 2019 to January 2020, both indices showed balanced performance, with the CSI 300 rising by 25.06% and the CSI 2000 by 28.04% [9]. - In the CPI rising period from January 2021 to February 2022, the CSI 300 fell by 12.08%, while the CSI 2000 rose by 18.85%, again favoring small-cap stocks [11]. Market Dynamics and Investment Strategies - The article suggests that during rising CPI periods, small-cap stocks may continue to outperform large-cap indices, indicating a potential shift in investment strategies [12]. - The concept of a "slow bull" market is introduced, emphasizing that market dynamics may favor small-cap and sector-specific performances rather than broad market rallies [12].

新华财经北京8月11日电（王菁）债市周一（8月11日）全线回调，税收调整扰动逐渐降温过后，市场开 始收益率成本适度回升预期，国债期货集体收跌，超长端走弱态势更显著，银行间现券收益率普遍回升 2BPs左右；公开市场单日净回笼4328亿元，资金利率走势小幅分化。 机构认为，8月为政府债净供给大月，流动性对冲正当其时，而税收调整之后明显利空新券定价，保障 发行成本的重要性更加凸显，因此后续或有货币配合的支持。关注8月央行是否恢复买债，或已具备一 定条件。 【行情跟踪】 银行间主要利率债收益率午后升幅扩大，30年期国债"25超长特别国债02"收益率上行3.1BPs报 1.9520%，10年期国开债"25国开10"收益率上行3.2BPs报1.8220%，10年期国债"25附息国债11"收益率上 行2.65BPs报1.7175%。 中证转债指数收盘上涨0.67%，报470.91点，成交金额818.93亿元。海泰转债、欧通转债、荣泰转债、 塞力转债、大元转债涨幅居前，分别涨20.00%、15.21%、15.04%、12.46%、12.35%。信测转债、中装 转2、高测转债、松霖转债、利扬转债跌幅居前，分别跌9.27%、4. ...

#报告 摩根士丹利前瞻美国7月CPI数据：关税影响、新车价格与机票价格细节值得关注。None (@None):None ...