Group 1 - The overall price level in China is relatively low, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) expected to remain stable in 2025, showing minor monthly fluctuations [1] - CPI has structural characteristics, with significant impacts from declining food and energy prices; food prices decreased by 1.5% in the previous year, affecting CPI by approximately 0.27 percentage points, while energy prices fell by 3.3%, contributing another 0.25 percentage points to the decline [1] - The current low CPI is influenced by complex domestic and international macroeconomic conditions, as well as the country's development stage, with traditional growth drivers slowing down [1] Group 2 - Policies aimed at expanding domestic demand are showing results, with core CPI experiencing a mild recovery; in 2025, the core CPI excluding food and energy is projected to rise by 0.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous year [2] - In December, the core CPI rose by 1.2%, maintaining above 1% for four consecutive months, with industrial consumer goods prices excluding energy increasing by 1.1% [2] - Specific price increases include home appliances and communication tools, which rose by 1.8% and 0.6% respectively, while the decline in fuel and new energy vehicles has narrowed significantly [2] Group 3 - Favorable factors for a moderate CPI recovery are accumulating, with effective implementation of consumption-boosting initiatives and coordinated fiscal and financial policies expected to gradually expand consumer demand [3] - In December, CPI increased by 0.8%, the highest since March 2023, driven by increased food consumption during the New Year holiday and active service consumption [3] - Continued industry self-regulation and capacity management are anticipated to support price recovery, with a focus on enhancing product standards and quality [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the stability of consumer prices in 2025, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remaining flat compared to the previous year, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.7%, a rise of 0.2 percentage points from the previous year [1][2][3] - The decline in food prices, which fell by 1.5% due to favorable climate conditions and sufficient supply, contributed to a decrease in CPI by approximately 0.27 percentage points [1] - Energy prices also played a significant role in lowering CPI, with a decrease of 3.3% impacting CPI by about 0.25 percentage points, influenced by international oil price fluctuations [1] Group 2 - The expansion of domestic demand and related policies have shown effectiveness, with the core CPI experiencing a mild recovery, rising by 0.7% in 2025, and maintaining a growth rate above 1% for four consecutive months [2] - Specific sectors, such as household appliances and communication tools, saw price increases of 1.8% and 0.6% respectively, while the price decline for fuel and new energy vehicles has narrowed significantly [2] - The implementation of consumption-boosting policies and fiscal-financial collaboration is expected to gradually expand consumer demand, providing a foundation for stable price operations [3]

Core Viewpoint - The overall consumer price index (CPI) for 2025 remained stable compared to the previous year, with various categories showing mixed price changes, indicating a complex economic environment and structural characteristics affecting prices [3][4]. Economic Data Summary - The CPI for 2025 was flat year-on-year, with food and beverage prices decreasing by 0.7%, clothing prices increasing by 1.5%, and transportation and communication prices dropping by 2.6% [3]. - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous year [3][5]. - In December 2025, the CPI increased by 0.8% year-on-year, marking a slight rise from the previous month, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [3]. Structural Characteristics of CPI - The decline in food and energy prices significantly impacted the overall CPI, with food prices down by 1.5%, contributing to a 0.27 percentage point decrease in CPI [4]. - Energy prices fell by 3.3%, leading to a 0.25 percentage point reduction in CPI [4]. Factors Influencing CPI Recovery - The implementation of policies aimed at boosting domestic demand has shown positive effects, with core CPI experiencing a mild recovery [5]. - The increase in consumer spending during the holiday season, particularly in food and service sectors, contributed to a seasonal rise in CPI [5]. - Ongoing measures to regulate industry capacity and improve product standards are expected to support price recovery in the coming year [5].

Core Viewpoint - The core CPI in China is expected to moderately rebound in 2025, with a projected increase of 0.7% compared to the previous year, marking a 0.2 percentage point rise in growth rate from the prior year [1][3]. Group 1: CPI Trends and Influences - The overall price level in China has been relatively low, with the CPI remaining stable, and a year-on-year increase of 0.8% in December 2025 [1][4]. - Structural characteristics of CPI are evident, with significant impacts from declining food and energy prices; food prices fell by 1.5% in the previous year, contributing to a 0.27 percentage point decrease in CPI [2][3]. - Energy prices are projected to decline by 3.3% in 2025, further contributing to a 0.25 percentage point decrease in CPI [2]. Group 2: Factors Driving CPI Rebound - The rebound in core CPI is attributed to effective domestic demand expansion policies, including the "old for new" consumption policy, which has improved supply-demand relationships in certain sectors [3][4]. - In December 2025, the core CPI rose by 1.2%, maintaining above 1% for four consecutive months, with industrial consumer goods prices (excluding energy) increasing by 1.1% [3][4]. - Seasonal factors, such as increased food consumption during the New Year holiday and upcoming Spring Festival, are expected to support a seasonal rise in CPI [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Policy Measures - The government plans to strengthen capacity regulation in key industries and improve product standards, which is expected to support price recovery [5]. - For 2026, the focus will be on leveraging macroeconomic policy effects to expand consumer spending and address supply-demand imbalances to promote reasonable price increases [5].

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in December 2025 increased by 0.8% year-on-year, marking the highest level since March 2023, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a positive trend with a month-on-month increase for three consecutive months, indicating a narrowing year-on-year decline and positive price changes in certain industries [1] - The rise in CPI and PPI reflects a reasonable recovery in price operations, signaling economic recovery, increased demand, and enhanced corporate vitality [1] Group 2 - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2% year-on-year, maintaining above 1% for four consecutive months, indicating improved market dynamics and corporate development [2] - The positive PPI trend alleviates concerns about continuous industrial profit contraction, suggesting that stable prices can lead to positive feedback in investment, employment, and credit [2] - Looking ahead to 2026, the focus will be on balancing price stability and industrial transformation, with macroeconomic policies aimed at stabilizing supply and enhancing corporate competitiveness [2]

Group 1: Report Title and General Information - The report is titled "Industrial Consumer Goods Drive Moderate Price Recovery - December 2025 CPI and PPI Review" [1] - The report was published on January 11, 2026 [10] Group 2: Report Highlights and Core Views - In December 2025, domestic prices improved unexpectedly supported by imported factors and pre - holiday consumption. Core CPI year - on - year growth remained at 1.2%, and the year - on - year decline of PPI narrowed [2] - In 2026, food CPI may still be dragged down by pig prices in the first half of the year, but the service sector is resilient, and the industrial consumer goods sector is supported by the "anti - involution" policy and the international metal price increase cycle. With the low - base effect, prices may continue a moderate recovery. It is neutrally expected that the year - on - year growth rate of PPI will turn positive in the fourth quarter [2] - This year, the bond market may operate in an environment of moderate price recovery. The long - term bond is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the 10 - year Treasury yield expected to fluctuate between 1.8% - 1.9%. The bond market's periodic recovery opportunity may come in the second half of the first quarter [2] Group 3: December 2025 Price Data - In December 2025, CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month and 0.8% year - on - year, with the year - on - year increase expanding by 0.1 percentage points compared with the previous month. Core CPI rose 1.2% year - on - year [7] - In December 2025, PPI rose 0.2% month - on - month and fell 1.9% year - on - year, with the year - on - year decline narrowing by 0.3 percentage points compared with the previous month [7] Group 4: Factors Affecting CPI Core CPI - Industrial consumer goods are the main support for core CPI, while service prices are stable. In December 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of core CPI remained at 1.2% for three consecutive months [11] - The year - on - year growth rate of industrial consumer goods (excluding energy) prices increased to 2.5% for six consecutive months, driving the year - on - year increase of CPI by about 0.63 percentage points. Gold jewelry prices rose 5.6% month - on - month due to rising international gold prices; copper and memory price increases drove household appliances and communication tools to rise 1.4% and 3% month - on - month respectively; the price decline of fuel cars and new - energy cars narrowed to 2.4% and 2.2% year - on - year respectively [11] - Service prices improved steadily, with the year - on - year growth rate slightly falling 0.1 percentage points to 0.6%. Among them, the month - on - month prices of household services and medical services were still stronger than the seasonal average [11] Overall CPI - The increase in food prices drove CPI to continue rising, while energy prices still dragged down CPI. In December 2025, CPI was stronger than the seasonal average month - on - month, and the year - on - year increase expanded by 0.1 percentage points to 0.8%, reaching the highest level since March 2023 [11] - Food prices rose 1.1% year - on - year, with the increase expanding by 0.9 percentage points compared with the previous month, driving the year - on - year increase of CPI by about 0.21 percentage points. Pre - holiday consumption demand pushed up the prices of fresh fruits and shrimps and crabs by 2.6% and 2.5% respectively. The drag of pork and egg prices on the year - on - year CPI decreased, but pig prices may remain low in the first half of this year [11] - Energy prices fell 3.8% year - on - year, with the decline expanding by 0.4 percentage points compared with the previous month. Affected by international oil price changes, domestic gasoline prices fell 1.2% month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline expanded to 8.4% [11] Group 5: Factors Affecting PPI - The continuous implementation of the "anti - involution" policy and the increase in international non - ferrous metal prices drove the month - on - month increase of PPI for three consecutive months, and the year - on - year decline narrowed. In December 2025, the month - on - month growth rate of PPI rebounded for three consecutive months, with the increase expanding by 0.1 percentage points to 0.2%. The year - on - year decline of PPI also narrowed by 0.3 percentage points to - 1.9% [11] - The year - on - year declines of both living materials and production materials narrowed. Production materials rose 0.3% month - on - month, while living materials remained flat month - on - month [11] - With the implementation of the "anti - involution" measures, the supply - demand structure of some industries improved, and the year - on - year price declines of the coal mining and washing, lithium - ion battery manufacturing, and photovoltaic industries narrowed [11] - The increase in international non - ferrous metal prices drove the prices of non - ferrous metal mining and dressing and non - ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industries to rise 3.7% and 2.8% month - on - month respectively, with the increases expanding by 1.1 and 0.7 percentage points compared with the previous month [11] Group 6: Upstream and Downstream Price Trends - The prices of upstream mining industries continued to rise, while the prices of mid - and downstream industries were stable. The price game may have been transmitted to the downstream. The substantial implementation of the "anti - involution" policy drove the continuous price recovery of industries such as coal and photovoltaic, but some key industries for capacity management did not improve significantly [11] - Among upstream industries, the prices of coal mining and washing and non - ferrous metal mining and dressing increased for many months, while the year - on - year price growth rates of industries such as petroleum, coal and other fuel processing (- 7.9%) and non - metallic mineral products (- 6.8%) were still declining [11] - The month - on - month price growth rates of industries such as general equipment manufacturing, automobile manufacturing, and computer, communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing were basically flat or fluctuated slightly, and the upstream prices of most industries had not been smoothly transmitted to the mid - and downstream raw material processing and manufacturing industries [11] Group 7: Future Outlook - In 2026, food CPI may still be dragged down by pig prices in the first half of the year, but the service sector is resilient, and the industrial consumer goods sector is supported by the "anti - involution" policy and the international metal price increase cycle. With the low - base effect, prices may continue a moderate recovery. It is neutrally expected that the year - on - year growth rate of PPI will turn positive in the fourth quarter [11] - This year, the bond market may operate in an environment of moderate price recovery. The long - term bond is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury yields expected to adjust to around 1.9% and 2.4% respectively. The bond market's periodic recovery opportunity may come in the second half of the first quarter [11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is the analysis of the December 2025 CPI data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, highlighting changes in both month-on-month and year-on-year figures [1] Group 2 - The month-on-month CPI increased by 0.2%, reversing a previous decline of 0.1%, primarily due to rising prices of industrial consumer goods, excluding energy, which rose by 0.6% [1] - The increase in CPI was driven by price hikes in communication tools (1.4%-3.0%) and domestic gold jewelry (5.6%), while energy prices fell by 0.5%, with gasoline decreasing by 1.2% [1] - Year-on-year CPI rose by 0.8%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points, marking the highest level since March 2023, mainly due to an expansion in food price increases [1] - Food prices increased by 1.1%, contributing approximately 0.17 percentage points to the CPI, with significant rises in fresh vegetables and fruits, while the decline in pork prices narrowed to 14.6% [1] - Core CPI rose by 1.2% year-on-year, remaining above 1% for four consecutive months, with service prices increasing by 0.6%, contributing about 0.25 percentage points [1] - The industrial consumer goods, excluding energy, increased by 2.5%, contributing approximately 0.63 percentage points, with gold jewelry prices surging by 68.5% [1]

Core Insights - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2025 is projected to increase by 0.8% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to decline by 2.6% year-on-year, indicating a mixed economic outlook for 2025 [1][2][3] CPI Analysis - CPI has shown a continuous recovery for four months, reaching a new high since March 2023, with core CPI remaining above 1% for the same duration [1][2] - In December, the CPI increased by 0.1 percentage points to 0.8%, driven by rising food and core consumer goods prices, while energy prices remained weak [6][7] - The annual CPI for 2025 is expected to average around 0%, the lowest level since 2009, primarily due to weak food and energy prices [3][4] PPI Analysis - The PPI for December is projected at -1.9%, with a narrowing decline compared to the previous month, and a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [3][12] - The annual PPI for 2025 is expected to average -2.6%, the second-lowest since 2016, influenced by weak demand and excess capacity in various sectors [4][5] - Key drivers for PPI include the recovery in the non-ferrous metals sector and the impact of "anti-involution" policies, while the oil and petrochemical sectors continue to exert downward pressure [12][13] 2026 Outlook - For 2026, CPI is forecasted to slightly increase to 0.7%, supported by policies such as "old-for-new" exchanges and rising gold prices, while PPI is expected to stabilize at -0.4% [5][6] - Factors influencing the 2026 outlook include potential price increases in coal, steel, and lithium due to demand from energy storage and AI-related sectors [6][12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year, with core consumer goods, services, and fresh produce prices improving. PPI's year - on - year decline narrowed to - 1.9%, and prices gradually recovered from upstream to mid - downstream after the "anti - involution" policy [2][3]. - In December 2025, due to the decline in vegetable price growth and the seasonal recovery of consumer goods, CPI's year - on - year increase rebounded to 0.8% under the low - base effect. PPI's month - on - month increase rebounded to 0.2% due to the heating season and the impact of imported non - ferrous metals [29][45]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 2025 Inflation Review CPI - In 2025, CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year. The factors contributing to the CPI increase from high to low were core consumer goods (0.63 pct), fresh produce (0.4 pct), services (0.25 pct), while livestock and meat (- 0.19 pct) and energy (- 0.3 pct) dragged it down [2][9]. - Core consumer goods: Gold prices contributed half of the increase, and prices of household appliances and daily necessities improved under consumption - promoting policies. Services: Service consumption scenarios mainly related to travel still supported prices, with significant price fluctuations between peak and off - peak seasons. Livestock and meat: Pig production capacity reduction was slow under "large - scale" farming, and terminal demand was weak, leading to a slow decline in prices. Fresh produce: Extreme weather affected production and transportation, tightening supply and driving up prices. Energy: Trade frictions led to weak demand and a downward price trend [2][14][15]. PPI - In 2025, the year - on - year decline of PPI narrowed to - 1.9%. After the "anti - involution" policy in July, mid - stream production materials industries showed positive signals, but the durable consumer goods manufacturing industry related to long - term income expectations and closer to terminal demand was still weak [24]. - Industries with continuous price increases included the imported non - ferrous metal industry chain, which had six consecutive months of price increases. Domestically, industries generally saw price recovery from upstream to mid - downstream, such as coal and black mining in the upstream, the paper - making industry, and then lithium - ion battery manufacturing and non - metallic mineral products industries [27]. December CPI Food Items - CPI food prices increased by 0.3% month - on - month, slightly weaker than the seasonal average, driving CPI up by about 0.05 percentage points. Pork prices decreased slightly due to oversupply, and fresh produce prices were weaker than the seasonal level, with fresh fruit prices rising seasonally and fresh vegetable prices rising less than expected [31]. Non - food Items - The non - food item of CPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month, stronger than the seasonal average, driving CPI up by about 0.12 percentage points. Energy prices decreased slightly, core consumer goods drove CPI up by about 0.16 percentage points (21% contributed by gold price increases), and service prices had limited impact on CPI during the off - travel season [32][37][38]. December PPI Overall - In December, PPI's month - on - month increase rebounded to 0.2% after 19 months, with price increases spreading from the mining industry to raw material and processing industries. Production material prices increased by 0.2%, while downstream living material prices remained flat [45]. By Industry - The number of industries with rising prices among industrial producers remained at 9. Supportive factors included the seasonal increase in demand and prices of coal, gas, and the non - ferrous metal industry chain, as well as the continuous price recovery of the paper - making industry. The drag factor was the imported crude oil industry chain [47][51][59].

Group 1 - The core consumer demand is increasing, leading to a rise in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December, which increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.8% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations [2][3] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2% year-on-year, indicating stable domestic demand [2][4] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.9%, with the decline narrowing due to improved supply-demand structures [5][6] Group 2 - Prices of communication tools, maternal and infant products, entertainment durable goods, and household appliances increased by 1.4% to 3.0% month-on-month, reflecting the effectiveness of consumption-boosting policies [3][4] - Food prices rose by 1.1% year-on-year, contributing significantly to the CPI increase, while pork prices decreased by 1.7% due to sufficient supply [4][5] - The prices of durable goods showed overall improvement, with household appliances rising by 1.4% month-on-month, marking a historical high [4][5] Group 3 - The energy prices decreased by 0.5%, with gasoline prices falling by 1.2% due to international oil price fluctuations [4][5] - The prices in the coal mining and washing industry and coal processing rose by 1.3% and 0.8% respectively, continuing a five-month upward trend [5][6] - New production capacities in digital economy-related industries are driving price increases, with significant rises in prices for external storage devices (15.3%) and biomass liquid fuels (9.0%) [6]