宏观经济分析报告 "反内卷"与新质生产力发展并进 ――2026 年 1 月物价数据点评 展望来看，（1）生猪供给仍较充足，猪价或延续低位震荡；春节前鲜菜 价格或再度上涨。（2）油价对 CPI 同环比将转为上拉；（3）春节因素或 带动核心通胀同环比涨幅扩大。综上预计 2026 年 2 月 CPI 同环比涨幅均 扩大。 PPI："反内卷"与新质生产力发展并进 2026 年 1 月 PPI 同比降幅收窄，环比涨幅扩大。国际定价商品中，输入 性因素继续拖累国内石油相关行业价格；受铜矿供应持续紧缺、AI 投资 扩张等因素影响，有色金属产业链价格继续上行。国内定价商品中，（1） 上游原材料中，"反内卷"持续显效，基础化学原料制造、黑色金属加工 价格由降转涨，煤炭产业链则暂时降温。（2）中游制造业中，除"反内 卷"带动锂离子电池、光伏设备制造等价格由降转涨外，人工智能等数 字化技术加快发展、算力需求增长带动电子设备制造业价格环比上涨。 （3）下游消费品制造业中，春节提振效应明显，礼品和食品等备货需求 增加带动工艺品制造、农副食品加工价格上涨。 展望来看，2 月输入型通胀或有升温；国内定价商品价格的积极因素仍然 是两大方向， ...

Inflation Data Summary - In January 2026, the CPI year-on-year growth was 0.2%, lower than the expected 0.4% and down from 0.8% in the previous month[1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.8% year-on-year, down from 1.2% previously, while the month-on-month growth was 0.3%[1] - The PPI year-on-year change was -1.4%, better than the expected -1.5% and improved from -1.9% in the previous month[1] Structural Changes in Price Index - The new weight distribution for the CPI shows a shift towards services, with food and beverage (29.5%), housing (22.1%), and transportation and communication (14.3%) being the largest categories[2] - The weight of pork in the food category was increased from 1.4% to 1.9%, enhancing its contribution to CPI[2] - The average impact of the base period switch on CPI and PPI year-on-year was only 0.06 and 0.08 percentage points, respectively, ensuring continuity in price statistics[2] Seasonal and Structural Influences - January's CPI month-on-month performance was weaker than seasonal trends, recording only 0.2% due to the late timing of the 2026 Spring Festival[3] - Food prices were a significant drag on the index, with fresh vegetable prices dropping 4.8% month-on-month, while pork prices rose 1.2%[4] - Core CPI showed strength, driven by rising gold prices and the effects of "anti-involution" and "national subsidy" policies, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3%[4] PPI Recovery and Market Signals - The PPI month-on-month growth accelerated to 0.4%, up from 0.1-0.2% in the previous quarter, indicating a structural recovery in industrial prices[6] - The broadening of price increases across 30 major industries, with 13 showing month-on-month increases, suggests improving profitability expectations in the manufacturing sector[8] - The report anticipates a potential rise in CPI to around 1.0% in February due to the Spring Festival purchasing effect, while PPI is expected to remain around -1.4% year-on-year[9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the marginal improvement in domestic prices as of January 2025, driven by input factors and anti-involution policies, while still remaining at low levels. It anticipates the potential for expanding domestic demand and monetary easing measures [1][9]. Group 1: CPI Analysis - In January, the CPI increased by 0.2% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, influenced by last year's high base and weak domestic demand [5][10]. - Food prices fell by 0.7% year-on-year, with pork prices down 13.7%, indicating a significant decline in demand [5][10]. - Core CPI rose by 0.8% year-on-year, but this was a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting weak service price growth [12]. Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI decreased by 1.4% year-on-year in January, but the decline was less severe than in December, indicating a narrowing of the drop [6][21]. - Input factors have led to price increases in upstream industries, particularly in non-ferrous metals, while downstream sectors remain weak due to insufficient demand [21][24]. - The PPI is expected to recover more significantly, driven by anti-involution policies and geopolitical factors affecting commodity prices [8][21]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The article forecasts a moderate recovery in prices, supported by policies such as the "old-for-new" consumption incentive, adjustments in pig production capacity, and international gold price trends [8][9]. - The central bank's monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative, with potential for interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions to stimulate demand [27][30]. - The overall economic environment is characterized by a strong supply but weak demand, necessitating continued efforts to stabilize market expectations and enhance domestic momentum [30][31]. Group 4: Pig Cycle Analysis - The pig price in January showed a year-on-year decline of 13.7%, but the rate of decline has narrowed, indicating a potential bottoming out of the cycle [16][17]. - The current pig cycle is still in a downward trend, with production capacity adjustments beginning but not yet sufficient to drive a significant price recovery [16][17]. - The industry is experiencing increased concentration, which may lead to reduced price volatility in future cycles compared to traditional patterns [18]. Group 5: Monetary Policy Insights - The central bank's Q4 report emphasizes the need for a flexible and effective monetary policy, with a focus on using tools like interest rate cuts to support economic recovery [27][30]. - There is a notable increase in household deposits moving towards wealth management products, indicating a shift in investment preferences that could impact bank liquidity [29][35]. - Loan interest rates continue to decline, with the weighted average rate at 3.15%, reflecting ongoing efforts to lower financing costs for the economy [29][36]. Group 6: Exchange Rate Dynamics - The RMB has strengthened, reaching a midpoint of 6.91 against the USD, creating a favorable environment for capital inflows and policy flexibility [38]. - The anticipated easing of US monetary policy may further enhance China's economic positioning and open up additional policy space [38].

宏 观 研 究 通胀数据 2026 年 02 月 11 日 如何理解 1 月通胀分化？ —— 通胀数据点评（26.01） 事件：2 月 11 日，国家统计局公布 1 月通胀数据，CPI 同比 0.2%、前值 0.8%、预期 0.4%、 环比 0.2%；PPI 同比-1.4%、前值-1.9%、预期-1.5%、环比 0.4%。 相比之下，煤油等大宗商品价格、中下游 PPI 表现偏弱。国际原油价格下行影响国内石油 开采、精炼石油产品制造价格分别下降 3.1%和 2.5%，油价拖累 PPI 环比-0.08%，煤价 也有走弱，拖累 PPI 环比-0.15%。中下游产能利用率也未明显改善，导致上游涨价对中 下游的拉动相对有限，测算中下游仅拉动 PPI 环比 0.1%。 受春节错位的影响，1 月 CPI 同比明显回落；但剔除该因素后，CPI 整体仍偏弱。统计局 测算本轮基期轮换对每月 CPI 同比的影响是 0.06 个百分点。今年春节假期与 2025 年形成 错位，导致 1 月同比较前月回落 0.6 个百分点至 0.2%。而 1 月 CPI 环比仅 0.2%、明显低 于往年春节前月的 CPI 表现（0.6%），反映整体 C ...

[Table_Page] 宏观经济研究报告 2026 年 2 月 11 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 广发宏观 通胀上行加快 [Tabl e_Author] 分析师： 郭磊 SAC 执证号：S0260516070002 SFC CE.no: BNY419 021-38003572 guolei@gf.com.cn [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： ⚫ 通胀上行加快。1 月 CPI 环比 0.2%，连续第二个月环比正增长；其中核心 CPI（不包含食品和能源）环比为 0.3%，属 6 个月以来最高，高于春节分布相近的 2015、2018 年 1 月。1 月 PPI 环比 0.4%，属于 2022 年 5 月 以来高点。 据万得数据（下同），1 月 CPI 环比 0.2%，持平前值。 1 月核心 CPI 环比 0.3%，高于前值的 0.2%，持平于 2023 年 1 月的 0.4%，属于 2025 年 8 月以来最高。春节 分布相近的 2015 年、2018 年，核心 CPI 环比均为 0.2%。 1 月 PPI 环比 0.4%，持平于 2023 年 9 月，属 2022 年 5 月以来高 ...

Core Viewpoint - Inflation is accelerating, with January CPI showing a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, marking the second consecutive month of positive growth. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.3%, the highest in six months, surpassing similar periods in 2015 and 2018. January PPI increased by 0.4%, reaching the highest point since May 2022 [5][6][7]. Group 1: Inflation Data Analysis - January CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, consistent with the previous value. Core CPI rose by 0.3%, higher than the previous value of 0.2% and equal to January 2023's 0.4%, marking the highest since August 2025 [6]. - January PPI increased by 0.4%, matching the previous month and reaching the highest level since May 2022. The base period adjustment and weight changes had a minor impact on the data, with an estimated effect of 0.06-0.08 percentage points on month-on-month growth rates [7][8]. Group 2: Price Increases in CPI - Notable month-on-month price increases in CPI include seasonal rises in tourism and service prices, with tourism prices up by 1.8% and service prices up by 0.2%. Specific increases include airfare (5.7%) and travel agency fees (2.0%) [2][8]. - The "CPI within PPI" category for household appliances continued to rise by 0.7%, with year-on-year growth increasing from 5.9% to 6.6%. Communication tools also saw a month-on-month increase of 0.9%, with year-on-year growth at 1.3% [2][8]. - Pork prices experienced their first month-on-month increase in six months, rising by 1.2% in January [2]. Group 3: Price Decreases in CPI - Certain categories, such as alcoholic beverages and rental housing, continued to show month-on-month declines. These categories are significant for the capital market, reflecting shifts in consumer behavior and economic cycles [2][9][10]. Group 4: PPI Price Increases - In January, prices for globally priced non-ferrous metals rose significantly, with non-ferrous metal mining and smelting increasing by 5.7% and 5.2%, respectively. Other sectors, including cement manufacturing and lithium-ion battery production, also saw increases [3][14][15]. - The automotive manufacturing sector reported zero growth, marking the first month without a decline in seven months. Prices in the AI industry chain, particularly for computer communication electronics, rose by 0.5% [3][16]. Group 5: Simulated Deflation Index - The simulated deflation index showed a year-on-year decline from -0.28% to -0.44% due to the timing of the Spring Festival, despite a month-on-month CPI increase. The index is expected to improve in February, potentially returning to around -0.28% [3][16].

Group 1 - The overall price level in China is relatively low, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) expected to remain stable in 2025, showing minor monthly fluctuations [1] - CPI has structural characteristics, with significant impacts from declining food and energy prices; food prices decreased by 1.5% in the previous year, affecting CPI by approximately 0.27 percentage points, while energy prices fell by 3.3%, contributing another 0.25 percentage points to the decline [1] - The current low CPI is influenced by complex domestic and international macroeconomic conditions, as well as the country's development stage, with traditional growth drivers slowing down [1] Group 2 - Policies aimed at expanding domestic demand are showing results, with core CPI experiencing a mild recovery; in 2025, the core CPI excluding food and energy is projected to rise by 0.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous year [2] - In December, the core CPI rose by 1.2%, maintaining above 1% for four consecutive months, with industrial consumer goods prices excluding energy increasing by 1.1% [2] - Specific price increases include home appliances and communication tools, which rose by 1.8% and 0.6% respectively, while the decline in fuel and new energy vehicles has narrowed significantly [2] Group 3 - Favorable factors for a moderate CPI recovery are accumulating, with effective implementation of consumption-boosting initiatives and coordinated fiscal and financial policies expected to gradually expand consumer demand [3] - In December, CPI increased by 0.8%, the highest since March 2023, driven by increased food consumption during the New Year holiday and active service consumption [3] - Continued industry self-regulation and capacity management are anticipated to support price recovery, with a focus on enhancing product standards and quality [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the stability of consumer prices in 2025, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remaining flat compared to the previous year, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.7%, a rise of 0.2 percentage points from the previous year [1][2][3] - The decline in food prices, which fell by 1.5% due to favorable climate conditions and sufficient supply, contributed to a decrease in CPI by approximately 0.27 percentage points [1] - Energy prices also played a significant role in lowering CPI, with a decrease of 3.3% impacting CPI by about 0.25 percentage points, influenced by international oil price fluctuations [1] Group 2 - The expansion of domestic demand and related policies have shown effectiveness, with the core CPI experiencing a mild recovery, rising by 0.7% in 2025, and maintaining a growth rate above 1% for four consecutive months [2] - Specific sectors, such as household appliances and communication tools, saw price increases of 1.8% and 0.6% respectively, while the price decline for fuel and new energy vehicles has narrowed significantly [2] - The implementation of consumption-boosting policies and fiscal-financial collaboration is expected to gradually expand consumer demand, providing a foundation for stable price operations [3]

Core Viewpoint - The overall consumer price index (CPI) for 2025 remained stable compared to the previous year, with various categories showing mixed price changes, indicating a complex economic environment and structural characteristics affecting prices [3][4]. Economic Data Summary - The CPI for 2025 was flat year-on-year, with food and beverage prices decreasing by 0.7%, clothing prices increasing by 1.5%, and transportation and communication prices dropping by 2.6% [3]. - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous year [3][5]. - In December 2025, the CPI increased by 0.8% year-on-year, marking a slight rise from the previous month, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [3]. Structural Characteristics of CPI - The decline in food and energy prices significantly impacted the overall CPI, with food prices down by 1.5%, contributing to a 0.27 percentage point decrease in CPI [4]. - Energy prices fell by 3.3%, leading to a 0.25 percentage point reduction in CPI [4]. Factors Influencing CPI Recovery - The implementation of policies aimed at boosting domestic demand has shown positive effects, with core CPI experiencing a mild recovery [5]. - The increase in consumer spending during the holiday season, particularly in food and service sectors, contributed to a seasonal rise in CPI [5]. - Ongoing measures to regulate industry capacity and improve product standards are expected to support price recovery in the coming year [5].

Core Viewpoint - The core CPI in China is expected to moderately rebound in 2025, with a projected increase of 0.7% compared to the previous year, marking a 0.2 percentage point rise in growth rate from the prior year [1][3]. Group 1: CPI Trends and Influences - The overall price level in China has been relatively low, with the CPI remaining stable, and a year-on-year increase of 0.8% in December 2025 [1][4]. - Structural characteristics of CPI are evident, with significant impacts from declining food and energy prices; food prices fell by 1.5% in the previous year, contributing to a 0.27 percentage point decrease in CPI [2][3]. - Energy prices are projected to decline by 3.3% in 2025, further contributing to a 0.25 percentage point decrease in CPI [2]. Group 2: Factors Driving CPI Rebound - The rebound in core CPI is attributed to effective domestic demand expansion policies, including the "old for new" consumption policy, which has improved supply-demand relationships in certain sectors [3][4]. - In December 2025, the core CPI rose by 1.2%, maintaining above 1% for four consecutive months, with industrial consumer goods prices (excluding energy) increasing by 1.1% [3][4]. - Seasonal factors, such as increased food consumption during the New Year holiday and upcoming Spring Festival, are expected to support a seasonal rise in CPI [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Policy Measures - The government plans to strengthen capacity regulation in key industries and improve product standards, which is expected to support price recovery [5]. - For 2026, the focus will be on leveraging macroeconomic policy effects to expand consumer spending and address supply-demand imbalances to promote reasonable price increases [5].