总量研究 CPI 涨势能否延续？ ——2025 年 11 月价格数据点评 作者 分析师：赵格格 执业证书编号：S0930521010001 0755-23946159 zhaogege@ebscn.com 分析师：刘星辰 执业证书编号：S0930522030001 021-52523880 liuxc@ebscn.com 相关研报 2025 年 12 月 10 日 PPI 环比转正，谁是拉手？——2025 年 10 月价格数据点评（2025-11-09） CPI 同比何时有望转正？——2025 年 9 月 价格数据点评（2025-10-15） PPI 迎来上行拐点——2025 年 8 月价格数 据点评（2025-09-10） "反内卷"效果初现——2025 年 7 月价格 数据点评（2025-08-09） 核心通胀继续回暖——2025 年 6 月价格数 据点评（2025-07-09） 如何看待分化的物价？——2025 年 5 月价 格数据点评（2025-06-09） 国内物价运行好于预期——2025 年 4 月价 格数据点评（2025-05-10） 关税冲突下，国内通胀如何演绎？——2025 年 3 月价格数 ...

Core Viewpoints - The inflation rebound in October is primarily driven by factors other than the anti-involution effect, with significant contributions from commodity price increases [2][60] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 0.2% year-on-year, up from -0.3% in the previous month, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.1% year-on-year, showing a slight improvement from -2.3% [9][59] Group 1: Factors Influencing Inflation - Factor 1: The anti-involution effect led to an increase in coal prices, but its impact on downstream PPI was limited. In contrast, copper prices, which were less affected by anti-involution, saw a significant increase, contributing 0.2% to the PPI [2][10][60] - Factor 2: The CPI's rise above zero was attributed to a low base and reduced supply in certain food categories, with pork prices remaining low despite the anti-involution effect. The food CPI increased by 1.5 percentage points to -2.9% year-on-year [2][17][61] - Factor 3: Core CPI continued to rise, supported by improved travel demand and rising gold prices. The core CPI increased to 1.2% year-on-year, with significant price increases in accommodation and travel services due to the overlapping National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival [3][24][61] Group 2: Future Outlook - The price increases in bulk commodities are expected to continue influencing inflation, but the impact of anti-involution on downstream prices may take time to materialize. The PPI is projected to remain around -2.2% year-on-year in the fourth quarter [4][37][62] - Although the low base, steady improvement in service consumption demand, and high gold prices may support core CPI, the limited rebound in CPI for the year is anticipated due to the tapering of national subsidies and slow recovery in downstream PPI [4][37][62] Group 3: Regular Tracking - The CPI showed an overall increase, with contributions from both food and non-food items. The food CPI rose by 1.5 percentage points to -2.9% year-on-year, with significant increases in fresh vegetables and fruits [5][43][63] - Non-food items such as household appliances and communication tools saw a decline in CPI, with household appliances dropping to 5.0% and communication tools to 1.2% [5][48][63] - The overall service CPI increased, with core service CPI performing better than seasonal trends, rising to 0.8% year-on-year [7][52][63]

Core Insights - Economic resilience is evident, but pressures remain, necessitating further expansion of domestic demand policies to effectively stimulate real demand in manufacturing and services while improving the efficiency of fund transmission to the real economy [1] CPI Insights - The CPI for September showed a year-on-year decline of -0.3%, a slight improvement from -0.4% in August, with core CPI rising to 1.0%, the highest in 19 months, indicating sustained recovery in internal demand [2] PPI Insights - The PPI decreased by -2.3% year-on-year in September, a reduction in the decline from -2.9% in the previous month, with expectations of a potential positive turnaround in the first half of next year [3] PMI Insights - The manufacturing PMI increased to 49.8% in September from 49.4% in August, indicating slight improvement in manufacturing activity, although the index remains in contraction territory for six consecutive months, highlighting ongoing economic pressures [4][5] Fixed Asset Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment fell by -7.1% year-on-year in September, with significant declines in infrastructure, manufacturing, and real estate investments, reflecting persistent weakness in investment activity [6] Credit Insights - New RMB loans increased by 1.29 trillion yuan in September, a rise of 700 billion yuan from the previous month, maintaining a steady credit scale despite a year-on-year decrease [7] M2 Insights - The M2 growth rate was 8.4% year-on-year in September, indicating a slight decline in the growth rate, with the efficiency of fund transmission to the real economy still needing improvement [8][9]

Core Insights - The consumer price index (CPI) in September showed a year-on-year decline of 0.3% and a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, indicating a mixed price trend in the consumer market [2][3] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.0%, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth and the first time in 19 months that it returned to a 1% increase [2][3] - Industrial producer price index (PPI) remained flat month-on-month and decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, but the rate of decline has narrowed, suggesting a potential stabilization in industrial prices [2][3] CPI and PPI Analysis - The CPI's performance was affected by significant declines in food and energy prices, while service prices increased by 0.6%, indicating a stable upward trend in service costs [4][7] - Core CPI's recovery is primarily driven by rising prices in core goods, with industrial consumer goods prices increasing by 1.8% year-on-year [4][5] - The "old-for-new" policy has stimulated demand for household appliances and communication tools, contributing to price increases in these categories [5][6] Sector-Specific Price Trends - Certain sectors, such as coal mining and black metal smelting, have seen price increases, reflecting the impact of industry restructuring and improved market competition [7][9] - The prices of gold and platinum jewelry surged by 42.1% and 33.6% respectively, driven by rising international gold prices [4][5] - The manufacturing prices for high-quality consumer goods, such as art and ceremonial products, have also shown significant increases, indicating a shift towards quality consumption [7][9] Future Price Outlook - Experts predict that the CPI may stabilize in October, with an annual average around 0%, while PPI is expected to fluctuate at low levels [9][10] - The ongoing implementation of policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and stabilizing prices is crucial for maintaining economic stability [10] - The improvement in supply-demand dynamics and structural upgrades in industries are expected to support a gradual recovery in price levels [8][9]

Inflation Trends - Core CPI in September increased by 0.9% year-on-year, continuing its upward trend, significantly outperforming the overall CPI which decreased by 0.3% due to falling pork prices[6] - Industrial consumer goods prices rose by 1.8%, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth, driven partly by rising prices of gold and copper[6] Price Dynamics - Gold jewelry and platinum prices increased by 42.1% and 33.6% year-on-year, respectively, reflecting the impact of international commodity price fluctuations[6] - The PPI decline narrowed to 2.3% year-on-year in September, with significant contributions from coal processing and black metal smelting industries, reducing the downward pressure on PPI by approximately 0.34 percentage points[6] Consumer Behavior - The shift from a "price war" to a "value war" in consumer goods indicates an improvement in supply quality, with household appliance CPI trends diverging from copper price movements[6] - Strong demand for personalized and upgraded products is evident, with prices for certain categories like arts and crafts increasing by 14.7% year-on-year[6] Economic Outlook - The report suggests that the main drivers of economic growth are shifting from external demand to high-quality domestic demand, indicating a structural transformation in the economy[6] - Future inflation dynamics will largely depend on internal policies, with expectations for continued support for domestic demand through fiscal and monetary measures[6]

Group 1: Inflation Data Overview - In September, the CPI year-on-year improved from -0.4% to -0.3%, while the core CPI rose to 1%[2] - The PPI remained flat month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline narrowing from -2.9% to -2.3%[2] - The GDP deflator index is expected to improve from -1.2% to -0.9% in Q3, aiding nominal growth stabilization[2] Group 2: Core CPI Analysis - The core CPI has been rising monthly, reaching 1% in September, the first time since March of the previous year[3] - Core goods prices increased significantly, with a year-on-year rise of 1.8% in September, the highest since 2021[4] - The contribution to the core CPI increase from core goods, rent, and core services is estimated at 0.61, 0.05, and 0.11 percentage points respectively[4] Group 3: Price Trends and Influences - Household appliance prices surged from -3.4% to 5.5%, marking a record high since 2002, driven by consumption policies[4] - Gold jewelry prices increased by 42.1%, contributing approximately 0.2 percentage points to the core CPI[4] - The prices of medical services rose by 1.9%, reflecting ongoing reforms in the healthcare sector[21] Group 4: Risks and Future Outlook - The effectiveness of consumption policies is expected to continue influencing price trends, with potential fluctuations as funding phases out[5] - The recovery of rent prices is crucial for the mid-term upward adjustment of the core CPI[5] - Uncertainties regarding the implementation of unified market policies pose risks to the inflation outlook[5]

Inflation Overview - In September, the CPI year-on-year growth rate was lower than the Wind consensus expectation, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, up 0.1 percentage points from August[1] - The CPI year-on-year decreased by 0.3%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from August, while the core CPI rose by 1.0%, also up 0.1 percentage points from August[2] - Food prices significantly dragged down the CPI year-on-year, with a decline of 4.4%, impacting the CPI by approximately 0.83 percentage points[5] Price Index Trends - The PPI remained flat month-on-month in September, with a year-on-year decline of 2.3%, which is an improvement of 0.6 percentage points from August[14] - The decline in PPI was primarily driven by production materials, which fell by 2.4% year-on-year, while living materials decreased by 1.7%[14] - The PPI's year-on-year decline has narrowed for two consecutive months, indicating a potential bottoming out, with expectations for a recovery in PPI growth by Q2 2026[18] Sector-Specific Insights - Durable consumer goods prices showed a continuous upward trend, with household appliances and communication tools increasing by 5.5% and 1.5% year-on-year, respectively[6] - The prices of precious metal consumer goods have seen significant increases due to rising international gold prices, while energy prices have been negatively impacted by falling international oil prices[7] - Seasonal factors have heavily influenced service prices, which saw a month-on-month decline of 0.3%[6] Future Outlook - The CPI is expected to maintain an upward trend in Q4, influenced by low base effects and the impact of traditional consumption peaks combined with the release of government subsidies[7] - The ongoing "anti-involution" policies are anticipated to improve supply-demand dynamics in certain industries, contributing to a sustained increase in PPI growth[18] - Risks include the potential for global inflation to rise again, a rapid slowdown in the European and American economies, and increasing international complexities[28]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) showed improvements in September, with the core CPI's year-on-year growth rate expanding for the fifth consecutive month, signaling a recovery in price levels [1][2] - In September, the CPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month and decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, while the core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose by 1.0% year-on-year, marking the first return to a 1% increase in nearly 19 months [1] - The PPI remained flat month-on-month and decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] Group 2 - The rise in industrial consumer goods prices was a significant factor contributing to the expansion of the core CPI's year-on-year growth, with industrial consumer goods prices (excluding energy) increasing by 1.8% year-on-year [1] - Notable price increases were observed in gold and platinum jewelry, which rose by 42.1% and 33.6% respectively, along with household appliances and communication tools, which saw increases of 5.5%, 3.2%, and 1.5% [1] - Analysts predict that the CPI may achieve a year-on-year increase in the coming months, while the PPI is expected to continue improving, albeit with limited potential [2] Group 3 - The need for further comprehensive measures to stabilize prices has been emphasized, including the implementation of policies to expand service consumption and the relaxation of consumption restrictions by the government and social groups [3] - There is potential for significant progress in advancing key projects that can contribute to economic stability [3]

Core Insights - In September, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.1% month-on-month, while year-on-year it decreased by 0.3%. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.0%, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth and the first time in 19 months it returned to 1% [1][3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) remained flat month-on-month and decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to August [1][5] CPI Analysis - The month-on-month CPI increase was driven by a 0.7% rise in food prices, which contributed approximately 0.13 percentage points to the CPI increase. Industrial consumer goods prices, excluding energy, rose by 0.5%, contributing about 0.12 percentage points [2] - Year-on-year, the CPI decline of 0.3% was primarily influenced by a 4.4% drop in food prices and a 2.7% decrease in energy prices, which together accounted for a significant portion of the CPI decrease [2][3] Core CPI Insights - The core CPI's year-on-year increase of 1.0% reflects a sustained improvement, with industrial consumer goods prices, excluding energy, rising by 1.8%. Notably, gold and platinum jewelry prices surged by 42.1% and 33.6%, respectively [3] - The increase in core CPI is attributed to the effects of consumption promotion policies, with rising prices in home appliances and mobile phones contributing positively [3] PPI Insights - The PPI's year-on-year decline of 2.3% shows signs of stabilization in certain industries, with improved supply-demand dynamics leading to reduced price declines in sectors like coal processing and non-metallic mineral products [5] - The expected annual PPI decline is projected at 2.7%, influenced by ongoing market competition optimization and the effects of "anti-involution" policies [5]

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent trends in China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), highlighting a decrease in CPI and a narrowing decline in PPI, indicating potential economic recovery and price stabilization [1][10]. CPI Analysis - In September, the national CPI decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, with urban areas down 0.2% and rural areas down 0.5% [4][6]. - Food prices fell by 4.4%, while non-food prices increased by 0.7%, contributing to the overall CPI decline [4][7]. - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.0%, marking the first return to this level in 19 months and indicating a continuous expansion for five consecutive months [7][9]. - The month-on-month CPI increased by 0.1%, with urban prices stable and rural prices rising by 0.2% [8][10]. PPI Analysis - The PPI for September showed a year-on-year decline of 2.3%, but the rate of decline narrowed by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [10][12]. - The industrial producer purchase price index decreased by 3.1% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1% [10][12]. - The decline in PPI is attributed to a low comparison base from the previous year and the positive effects of macroeconomic policies [12][13]. Sector-Specific Insights - Certain industries, such as coal processing and photovoltaic equipment manufacturing, experienced a reduction in price decline, contributing to the overall narrowing of PPI [13]. - The modernization of the industrial system and the release of consumer potential have led to price increases in sectors like aircraft manufacturing and electronic materials [13]. - The article anticipates that the PPI decline will first widen and then narrow in 2025, influenced by ongoing market competition improvements [14].