（原标题：经观月度观察|经济韧性显现，提高资金向实体传导效率） 麦高证券研究发展部宏观首席研究员刘娟秀点评：9月CPI同比降幅较8月收窄0.1个百分点至-0.3%，环 比由平转涨0.1%，扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比升至1.0%，为近19个月以来的最高点，且连续5 个月保持涨幅扩大态势，充分反映经济内生动能持续修复。 经济观察网 李晓丹 实习生 朱嫡 魏琛琪 王明飞 何抒澄/文 经济韧性显现但压力犹存，扩内需政策需要 进一步加码，既要有效拉动制造业和服务业的真实需求，也要在满足实体经济的金融需求的同时，提高 资金向实体经济传导的效率。 宏观数据显示，2025年9月CPI由-0.4%上升至-0.3%；PPI从-2.9%上升至-2.3%；制造业PMI由49.4%上涨 至49.8%；新增人民币贷款12900亿元，较上月增加7000亿元；同上月相比，M2增速下降，增速为 8.4%。 由《经济观察报》发起的"经济观察报月度观察"，每月发布一次。本次共有11家机构参与月度宏观数据 预测。 CPI：内生动能持续修复 CPI公布值（同比）：-0.3% 前值：-0.4% CPI预测值（同比）：-0.2% 核心CPI突破" ...

对于未来物价走势，不少专家提到，居民部门的消费需求仍处于修复的关键节点，今后仍需聚焦扩大有 效需求。 --------------- 2025年经济进入第四季度"冲刺"阶段，关乎经济、牵动民生的物价显现出积极信号。 国家统计局近日发布的数据显示，9月，全国居民消费价格指数（CPI）同比下降0.3%，环比上涨 0.1%。"扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.0%，涨幅连续第5个月扩大，为近19个月以来涨幅首 次回到1%。"国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟分析，其中，扣除能源的工业消费品价格上涨1.8%， 涨幅连续第5个月扩大。工业消费品中，金饰品和铂金饰品价格分别上涨42.1%和33.6%，家用器具、家 庭日用杂品和通信工具价格涨幅均有扩大。服务价格上涨0.6%，涨幅较为稳定。 来自工业领域的价格信号同样积极：CPI的上游先行指标——工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）环比继续 持平，同比下降2.3%，降幅比上月收窄0.6个百分点。这是PPI同比降幅继上月实现今年3月份以来首次 收窄后继续收窄。 业内人士认为，尽管CPI同比略有下降，但扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.0%，涨幅连续第5 个月扩大，显 ...

Inflation Trends - Core CPI in September increased by 0.9% year-on-year, continuing its upward trend, significantly outperforming the overall CPI which decreased by 0.3% due to falling pork prices[6] - Industrial consumer goods prices rose by 1.8%, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth, driven partly by rising prices of gold and copper[6] Price Dynamics - Gold jewelry and platinum prices increased by 42.1% and 33.6% year-on-year, respectively, reflecting the impact of international commodity price fluctuations[6] - The PPI decline narrowed to 2.3% year-on-year in September, with significant contributions from coal processing and black metal smelting industries, reducing the downward pressure on PPI by approximately 0.34 percentage points[6] Consumer Behavior - The shift from a "price war" to a "value war" in consumer goods indicates an improvement in supply quality, with household appliance CPI trends diverging from copper price movements[6] - Strong demand for personalized and upgraded products is evident, with prices for certain categories like arts and crafts increasing by 14.7% year-on-year[6] Economic Outlook - The report suggests that the main drivers of economic growth are shifting from external demand to high-quality domestic demand, indicating a structural transformation in the economy[6] - Future inflation dynamics will largely depend on internal policies, with expectations for continued support for domestic demand through fiscal and monetary measures[6]

Group 1: Inflation Data Overview - In September, the CPI year-on-year improved from -0.4% to -0.3%, while the core CPI rose to 1%[2] - The PPI remained flat month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline narrowing from -2.9% to -2.3%[2] - The GDP deflator index is expected to improve from -1.2% to -0.9% in Q3, aiding nominal growth stabilization[2] Group 2: Core CPI Analysis - The core CPI has been rising monthly, reaching 1% in September, the first time since March of the previous year[3] - Core goods prices increased significantly, with a year-on-year rise of 1.8% in September, the highest since 2021[4] - The contribution to the core CPI increase from core goods, rent, and core services is estimated at 0.61, 0.05, and 0.11 percentage points respectively[4] Group 3: Price Trends and Influences - Household appliance prices surged from -3.4% to 5.5%, marking a record high since 2002, driven by consumption policies[4] - Gold jewelry prices increased by 42.1%, contributing approximately 0.2 percentage points to the core CPI[4] - The prices of medical services rose by 1.9%, reflecting ongoing reforms in the healthcare sector[21] Group 4: Risks and Future Outlook - The effectiveness of consumption policies is expected to continue influencing price trends, with potential fluctuations as funding phases out[5] - The recovery of rent prices is crucial for the mid-term upward adjustment of the core CPI[5] - Uncertainties regarding the implementation of unified market policies pose risks to the inflation outlook[5]

Inflation Overview - In September, the CPI year-on-year growth rate was lower than the Wind consensus expectation, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, up 0.1 percentage points from August[1] - The CPI year-on-year decreased by 0.3%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from August, while the core CPI rose by 1.0%, also up 0.1 percentage points from August[2] - Food prices significantly dragged down the CPI year-on-year, with a decline of 4.4%, impacting the CPI by approximately 0.83 percentage points[5] Price Index Trends - The PPI remained flat month-on-month in September, with a year-on-year decline of 2.3%, which is an improvement of 0.6 percentage points from August[14] - The decline in PPI was primarily driven by production materials, which fell by 2.4% year-on-year, while living materials decreased by 1.7%[14] - The PPI's year-on-year decline has narrowed for two consecutive months, indicating a potential bottoming out, with expectations for a recovery in PPI growth by Q2 2026[18] Sector-Specific Insights - Durable consumer goods prices showed a continuous upward trend, with household appliances and communication tools increasing by 5.5% and 1.5% year-on-year, respectively[6] - The prices of precious metal consumer goods have seen significant increases due to rising international gold prices, while energy prices have been negatively impacted by falling international oil prices[7] - Seasonal factors have heavily influenced service prices, which saw a month-on-month decline of 0.3%[6] Future Outlook - The CPI is expected to maintain an upward trend in Q4, influenced by low base effects and the impact of traditional consumption peaks combined with the release of government subsidies[7] - The ongoing "anti-involution" policies are anticipated to improve supply-demand dynamics in certain industries, contributing to a sustained increase in PPI growth[18] - Risks include the potential for global inflation to rise again, a rapid slowdown in the European and American economies, and increasing international complexities[28]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) showed improvements in September, with the core CPI's year-on-year growth rate expanding for the fifth consecutive month, signaling a recovery in price levels [1][2] - In September, the CPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month and decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, while the core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose by 1.0% year-on-year, marking the first return to a 1% increase in nearly 19 months [1] - The PPI remained flat month-on-month and decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] Group 2 - The rise in industrial consumer goods prices was a significant factor contributing to the expansion of the core CPI's year-on-year growth, with industrial consumer goods prices (excluding energy) increasing by 1.8% year-on-year [1] - Notable price increases were observed in gold and platinum jewelry, which rose by 42.1% and 33.6% respectively, along with household appliances and communication tools, which saw increases of 5.5%, 3.2%, and 1.5% [1] - Analysts predict that the CPI may achieve a year-on-year increase in the coming months, while the PPI is expected to continue improving, albeit with limited potential [2] Group 3 - The need for further comprehensive measures to stabilize prices has been emphasized, including the implementation of policies to expand service consumption and the relaxation of consumption restrictions by the government and social groups [3] - There is potential for significant progress in advancing key projects that can contribute to economic stability [3]

Core Insights - In September, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.1% month-on-month, while year-on-year it decreased by 0.3%. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.0%, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth and the first time in 19 months it returned to 1% [1][3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) remained flat month-on-month and decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to August [1][5] CPI Analysis - The month-on-month CPI increase was driven by a 0.7% rise in food prices, which contributed approximately 0.13 percentage points to the CPI increase. Industrial consumer goods prices, excluding energy, rose by 0.5%, contributing about 0.12 percentage points [2] - Year-on-year, the CPI decline of 0.3% was primarily influenced by a 4.4% drop in food prices and a 2.7% decrease in energy prices, which together accounted for a significant portion of the CPI decrease [2][3] Core CPI Insights - The core CPI's year-on-year increase of 1.0% reflects a sustained improvement, with industrial consumer goods prices, excluding energy, rising by 1.8%. Notably, gold and platinum jewelry prices surged by 42.1% and 33.6%, respectively [3] - The increase in core CPI is attributed to the effects of consumption promotion policies, with rising prices in home appliances and mobile phones contributing positively [3] PPI Insights - The PPI's year-on-year decline of 2.3% shows signs of stabilization in certain industries, with improved supply-demand dynamics leading to reduced price declines in sectors like coal processing and non-metallic mineral products [5] - The expected annual PPI decline is projected at 2.7%, influenced by ongoing market competition optimization and the effects of "anti-involution" policies [5]

记者丨 周潇枭 见习记者冉黎黎 编辑丨陈洁 10月15日，国家统计局发布的数据显示，9月份全国居民消费价格指数（CPI）同比下降 0.3%，环比上涨0.1%；工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）同比下降2.3%，环比继续持平。值得 注意的是，扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.0%，涨幅连续第5个月扩大，为近19个 月以来涨幅首次回到1%；PPI同比降幅较上月收窄0.6个百分点，同比降幅连续两个月收窄。 国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟解读称，CPI环比由平转涨；同比下降0.3%，降幅比上月 收窄0.1个百分点。CPI同比下降，主要是翘尾影响所致。PPI环比连续两个月持平，同比降幅 收窄，除受上年同期对比基数走低影响外，我国各项宏观政策效果持续显现，一些行业价格呈 现积极变化。 中国民生银行首席经济学家温彬对21世纪经济报道记者表示， 9月份，得益于消费潜力释放、 产业结构升级和市场竞争秩序持续优化，物价延续修复态势。 董莉娟表示，分类别看，食品和能源价格下降。其中，食品价格下降4.4%，降幅比上月扩大 0.1个百分点，影响CPI同比下降约0.83个百分点，是影响CPI同比下降的主要因素。能源价格 下降2. ...

CPI Analysis - In September 2025, the CPI year-on-year decreased by 0.3%, a slight improvement from the previous month's -0.4% and better than the market expectation of -0.1%[2] - The core CPI rose to 1.0% year-on-year, up from 0.9% in the previous month, driven by increases in prices of gold and durable goods[3] - Food prices continued to decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.4%, primarily due to falling pork prices, which dropped by 0.7% month-on-month[4] PPI Analysis - The PPI year-on-year decline narrowed to 2.3% in September from 2.9% in August, slightly better than the market expectation of -2.4%[2] - The PPI remained stable month-on-month at 0% for two consecutive months, indicating a stabilization after previous declines[6] - Key sectors such as coal, steel, and photovoltaic industries showed price stabilization, contributing to the reduced PPI decline[6] Future Outlook - CPI is expected to turn positive in the fourth quarter as the impact of last year's high base fades and food price pressures diminish[8] - The PPI is anticipated to continue its upward trend, but the improvement may be limited due to weakening demand and ongoing international oil price declines[8] - The seasonal demand for pork may support prices, potentially leading to a price turning point by mid-next year if breeding stock continues to decrease[8]

Group 1 - The core point of the article emphasizes that the recent CPI decline of 0.3% is misleading, primarily due to food prices dragging down the overall index, with pork prices dropping by 17%, fresh vegetables by 13.7%, and eggs by 13.5% [3] - The focus should be on the core CPI, which, excluding food and energy, has increased by 1% year-on-year, marking the first return to this level in 19 months, indicating a recovery in consumer demand for durable goods like home appliances and electronics [3][4] - The PPI has decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, but the rate of decline has narrowed by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, suggesting that the industrial sector is stabilizing and moving away from aggressive price competition [3][4] Group 2 - The article suggests that the current data reflects a gradual warming in the economy, with the core CPI indicating real demand recovery and the PPI showing a shift from harmful competition to healthy development within industries [4] - Looking ahead, it is anticipated that the October CPI may turn positive due to a lower base from last year, and the PPI is expected to stabilize or even slightly increase, indicating a more stable economic environment [4] - Investors are advised to focus on the warming segments within the core CPI, such as home appliances and consumer electronics, as well as the stabilizing industrial sectors within the PPI, rather than short-term fluctuations in food prices [4]