Core Insights - The U.S. economy is expected to experience a combination of rising inflation and slowing economic activity, leading the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates in 2025 [1][5]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - Morgan Stanley predicts that inflation in the U.S. will rise significantly starting in May, with an annual inflation rate potentially reaching 3.0-3.5% by year-end [1][2]. - The recent easing of U.S.-China trade tensions has reduced the risk of a hard stop in trade flows, but the effective tariff rate remains high at 13%, compared to about 2% at the beginning of the year [2][5]. - The forecast indicates that inflation will precede a slowdown in economic activity, with core PCE inflation expected to rise month-over-month by 0.3% in May and 0.5% in June, July, and August [2][5]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy - Morgan Stanley maintains its outlook that the Federal Reserve will not lower interest rates in 2025, as inflation is expected to deviate more from the Fed's 2.0% target than employment levels will from maximum employment [5]. - The Fed may begin to cut rates in March 2026, driven by a slowdown in economic activity and reduced labor demand, which could increase the unemployment rate [5]. Group 3: Fiscal Policy - The recent budget proposal passed by the House of Representatives is projected to increase the deficit by $3.8 trillion over the next decade, with significant contributions from the extension of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) [6]. - The analysis suggests that the fiscal stance will remain largely unchanged, with potential for higher deficits if certain tax cuts are not allowed to expire as scheduled [6].

早些时候，美国总统特朗普发文称，"没有通胀，汽油、能源、食品杂货以及几乎所有其他商品的价格 都在下跌！美联储必须像欧洲和中国那样降低利率。'太迟先生'鲍威尔，为什么还在犹豫？这对正准备 繁荣发展的美国来说不公平。让一切顺其自然吧，这将是一件美好的事情！" 有"美联储传声筒"之称的华尔街日报记者Nick Timiraos指出，美联储将没有理由因为4月的通胀数据而 改变其观望立场。这些数字在很大程度上符合密切跟踪劳工部衡量通胀方式的预测者的预期。如果不是 因为4月关税的广泛提高，通胀数据可能会使美联储有望很快恢复降息。但未来几个月成本的潜在上升 可能使美联储按兵不动，直到它能够更好地判断价格上涨是否是一次性的。 古尔斯比今年具有投票权，他表示："我们正在持续获得这些数据，至少表明情况还不错。我认为，在 有如此多的短期波动性时，期望企业或央行对一件事的长期影响仓促下结论是不现实的，这是一个非常 困难的环境。" 芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比周三表示，显示4月份消费者通胀温和的数据不一定反映出美国进口关税上升 的影响，美联储仍需要更多数据来辨别物价和经济的走向。 周二公布的数据显示，美国4月份CPI同比增速放缓至2.3%，是 ...

5月14日国内金价快报：国内各大金店金价整体变化不大，回收价格微涨。今日最高价金店依旧是六福黄金那几家，不涨不 跌，标价992元/克。上海中国黄金下跌13元/克，报价956元/克，再次成为最低价金店。今日金店黄金价差36元/克，价差继 续扩大。 具体各大品牌金店最新价格见下表格： 昨日现货黄金盘中反复震荡，最高涨至3265.03美元/盎司，最低也跌至3215.79美元/盎司。最终收报3249.52美元/盎司，涨幅 0.44%。今日金价再次出现下跌，截至发稿，现货黄金暂报3232.71美元/盎司，跌幅0.52%。 昨日金价反弹主要还是晚间公布的美国4月CPI数据低于预期，市场普遍预期美联储可能在9月恢复降息，美元走弱，金价受 推上行。外加昨日金价跌到最低位后，出现的逢低买盘支撑。 目前据CME"美联储观察"最新数据显示， 美联储6月维持利率不变的概率为91.8%，9月维持利率不变的概率为25.3%。 另据外媒消息，昨日以色列军方对哈马斯最高领导人穆罕默德·辛瓦尔发动了空袭，目前暂未证实哈马斯领导人是否死亡。 中东局势后续或又有加剧可能。而明日在土耳其还将迎来俄乌的又一次停火谈判，有需要的投资者可以关注下。 此外 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The MPOB March palm oil supply - demand report has a neutral impact, and palm oil prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [25]. - The USDA May supply - demand report has a bullish impact on soybeans [25]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01 Overnight Quotes - Overnight quotes of various commodities are presented, including BMD palm oil, ICE Brent, NYMEX WTI, CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil, with their closing prices and daily percentage changes [1]. - Currency quotes such as the US dollar index, CNY/USD, MYR/USD, etc., are also provided along with their percentage changes [2]. 02 Spot Quotes - Spot prices, basis, and basis daily changes of DCE palm oil, soybean oil, and soybean meal in different regions are given [3]. - CNF premiums, premium changes, and CNF quotes for soybean crushing in different regions are presented [5]. 03 Important Fundamental Information 产区天气 - The future weather outlook (May 17 - 21) for US soybean - producing states shows that precipitation is higher than normal, and temperatures vary [6]. 国际供需 - ITS indicates that Malaysian palm oil exports from May 1 - 10 decreased by 9% compared to the same period last month, while SGS expects a 1.9% increase [10]. - USDA's 2025/2026 US soybean production, ending stocks, and yield forecasts are close to market expectations, and it maintains previous production forecasts for Argentina and Brazil [10]. - As of May 11, 2025, the US soybean planting rate was 48% (higher than expected), and the emergence rate was 17% [13]. - A private exporter reported selling 120,000 tons of soybeans to Mexico [14]. - As of May 8, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 426,077 tons [14]. - As of May 10, the 2024/25 Brazilian soybean harvest rate was 98.5% [15]. - Brazil's soybean exports in the first two weeks of May increased by 24% compared to the daily average in May last year [15]. - APK - Inform raised Ukraine's 2025 soybean production and 2025/26 export forecasts [16]. - The Baltic Dry Index rose, ending a four - day decline [17]. 国内供需 - On May 10, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased by 80% compared to the previous trading day [18]. - On May 10, the trading volume of soybean meal decreased, and the national oil mill operating rate dropped to 54.80% [18]. - As of May 9, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil decreased by 5.28% week - on - week, while that of soybean oil increased by 4.40% [18]. - The agricultural ministry adjusted China's 2024/2025 soybean import volume and estimated 2025/2026 import and consumption volumes [19]. - The average purchase price of pigs and the average ex - factory price of白条肉 decreased slightly from April 28 - May 4 [19]. - As of May 12, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" decreased, and prices of various agricultural products changed [20]. 04 Macro News 国际要闻 - The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 88.4%, and market expectations for Fed rate cuts by December have decreased [22]. - The European Central Bank should stop rate cuts, according to an ECB official [22]. - Canada's national economic confidence index as of May 9 was 48.6 [22]. 国内要闻 - On May 10, the US dollar/CNY exchange rate decreased (CNY appreciated) [24]. - On May 10, the Chinese central bank conducted 43 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection [24]. - The Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks achieved substantial progress, with significant tariff reductions [24]. 05 Market Impact Analysis - The MPOB March palm oil supply - demand report shows an increase in ending stocks, and palm oil prices are expected to be weakly volatile [25]. - The USDA May supply - demand report has a bullish impact on soybeans, with lower - than - expected ending stocks for 25/26 [25]. 06 Fund Flows - On May 12, 2025, the futures market had a net inflow of 9.886 billion yuan, with a net outflow of 1.867 billion yuan in commodity futures and a net inflow of 11.753 billion yuan in stock index futures [28]. 07 Arbitrage Tracking No information provided.

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses President Trump's dissatisfaction with the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates, highlighting his political motivations and the implications for the U.S. economy [1][3][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve has announced for the third consecutive time that it will not lower interest rates, leading to President Trump's complaints about dealing with Chairman Powell [1]. - Trump has previously urged the Fed to lower rates, suggesting that a 100 basis point cut could reduce annual interest expenses by $400 billion, alleviating debt pressure and supporting his political agenda [3]. Group 2: Economic Performance - The U.S. GDP shrank by 0.3% on a year-over-year basis in the first quarter of 2025, marking the worst quarterly performance since 2022, which exceeded market expectations [3]. - The decline in GDP was primarily attributed to a significant increase in imports and a reduction in government spending, reflecting the uncertainty caused by the government's trade policies [3]. Group 3: Political Dynamics - Trump's strategy appears to be aimed at shifting blame for economic issues onto Powell, framing them as failures of individual decision-making rather than structural problems [1]. - The ongoing tensions between Trump and Powell signal a growing rift in the U.S. political and financial system, raising questions about the credibility of the country's institutional checks and balances [7].

SHMET 网讯： 清明节后铜价因受美国"对等关税"政策的利空打击而快速探底，但随后不断传出缓和消息，且有来自供需面的提振，铜价逐步反弹回升，弥补前期缺口；4 月底后呈窄幅波动走势，上方压力依然明显。 宏观情绪缓和中略谨慎 现货端供应略偏紧 国内精铜库存降势未止，截止上周四，SMM铜社库降至12.01万吨，较五一节前降0.95万吨，实现连续10周周度去库，较年内高点及去年同期均明显回落。 上周，上期所铜总库存下降8602吨至8.07万吨，仓单数量下降9001吨至1.92万吨，而期货上05合约的持仓尚有3.7万手，虚实比较高。现货供给偏紧张，上周 升水快速冲高，同时期货上back结构较为突出，对铜价有较强的带动。LME铜库存也呈降势，注册仓单在11万吨左右，0-3现货升水也逐步抬升，至50美元/ 吨左右，关注可能的挤仓风险。COMEX铜库存快速增长至16万吨左右，注册仓单则徘徊于8.6万吨上下。 5月10日至11日，中美经贸代表于瑞士进行会谈，会后中方代表表示，此次会谈达成重要共识，并取得实质性进展，关注后续声明，可能会对有色市场情绪 有一定提振。此前，美英已就关税贸易协议条款达成一致，未掀起大的波澜，市场更多 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年05月12日16时49分 一、黄金 报告导读： | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | 较上日 | | 较上周/前值 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国际价格 | Comex黄金主力合约收盘价 | 美元/盎司 | 3329.10 | 18.70 | 0.56% | 81.70 | 2.52% | | | 伦敦金 | 美元/盎司 | 3324.55 | -27.75 | -0.83% | 74.85 | 2.30% | | 国内价格 | 沪金主力收盘价（上期所） | 元/克 | 772.28 | -16.14 | -2.05% | -8.02 | -1.03% | | | 黄金T+D收盘价（上金所） | 元/克 | 758.15 | -27.15 | -3.46% | -21.35 | -2.74% | | 基差与价差、比价 | 沪金主力-伦敦金 | 元/克 | -17.59 | -31.51 | -226% | -39.46 | -180% | | | 沪金主力 ...

5月12日国内金价快报：国内各大金店金价继续下跌，老庙黄金金价已触及1000元/克的关口，其他金店金价也有望跌下千 元。周六福等金店金价跌了14元/克，最新标价1008元/克，仍是最高价金店。菜百金价下跌7元/克，报价988元/克，取代上 海中国黄金成为最低价金店。今日金店黄金价差20元/克，价差又小了点。 具体各大品牌金店最新价格见下表格： | | | 今日金店黄金价格一览(2025年5月12日) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 金店报价 | 今日金价 | 单位 | 变动幅度 | 涨跌 | | 老庙黄金价格 | 1000 | 元/克 | 19 | 跌 | | 六福黄金价格 | 1008 | 元/克 | 14 | 脱 | | 周大福黄金价格 | 1008 | 元/克 | 14 | 联 | | 周六福黄金价格 | 1008 | 元/克 | 14 | 跌 | | 金至尊黄金价格 | 1008 | 元/克 | 14 | 缺 | | 老凤祥黄金价格 | 1002 | 元/克 | 20 | 跌 | | 潮宏基黄金价格 | 1008 | 元/克 | 14 | 跌 | | 周 ...

银河有色 有色研发报告 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 2025 年 5 月 12 日星期一 | 研究所副所长、有色及贵 | 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 | | --- | --- | | 金属板块负责人：车红云 | | | 期货从业证号：F03088215 | 贵金属 | | 投资咨询号：Z0017510 | 【市场回顾】 | | | 1. 贵金属市场：上周五受贸易进展不确定性和地缘冲突的影响伦敦金下破 3280 美元后 | | 研究员：王伟 | 持续反弹，最终收涨 0.63%，报 3326.46 美元/盎司。但周末中美经贸高层宣布会谈取得 | | 期货从业证号：F03143400 | 了实质性进展，伦敦金今晨跳空低开；现货白银周五收涨 0.84%，报 32.72 美元/盎司。 | | 投资咨询从业证号： Z0022141 | 受外盘驱动，沪金主力合约收涨 0.33%，报 790.74 元/克，沪银主力合约收涨 0.88%， | | 报 | 8221 元/千克。 | | 研究员：王露晨 CFA | 2.美元指数：美元指数回吐前日部分涨幅，收跌 0.3%，报 100.339。 | | 期货从业证号：F03110758 ...

中美谈判进入倒计时，两国高层将在瑞士会面磋商，关键时刻特朗普口风又变了，态度强硬的喊话中国。不料几分钟后，美联储传出噩耗。中方接受谈判 后，特朗普又说了什么？美联储为何会"背刺"特朗普？ 据新华社消息，北京时间5月7日，中国外交部表态称，将在5月9日至12日期间访问瑞士，在此期间和美国代表就关税问题进行磋商对话，这也是关税战打响 以来首次中美线下沟通。 值得一提的是，就在特朗普警告中国几分钟之后，美联储传出了噩耗。美联储的官方声明中显示，将维持联邦基金利率在4.25%-4.5%不变，这符合市场预 期。这不仅是2025年以来美联储第三次维持利率不变，也向外界释放了一个重要信号：美国经济存在很大的不确定性，美联储不敢轻举妄动。 此外，美联储还指控，总统特朗普要求美联储降息的决定不会影响美联储的工作，因为他的关税政策超出预期，主席鲍威尔不会主动要求和特朗普会面，将 来也不会。 对此美国网友们并不买账，他们在社交媒体上质问贝森特，瑞士对美国商品是零关税政策，他要去谈什么？中国是受邀前往瑞士，并且还要对法国访问，相 比之下美国才是刻意和中国碰面的一方。 对于这番言论，中国外交部发言人也做出了回应，此次会谈是美国请求促成 ...