Group 1 - The CBO and JCT report indicates that if the Trump administration's spending plan and tax reform are implemented, federal debt will increase by approximately $2.8 trillion over the next decade, reflecting a $0.4 trillion increase from previous estimates due to the inclusion of macroeconomic factors [1] - The CBO forecasts that the proposed legislation will boost real GDP growth by 0.5 percentage points over the next ten years, but rising 10-year U.S. Treasury yields by 0.14 percentage points will lead to increased borrowing costs, outweighing the tax revenue growth from economic expansion [1] - By 2034, public-held federal debt is projected to rise to $33 trillion, reaching 124% of GDP, which is higher than the current baseline forecast of 117% [1] Group 2 - The Senate is reviewing its version of the tax reform bill, which continues the personal tax cuts initiated by Trump in 2017 and introduces new tax relief measures, including exemptions for tips and overtime pay [2] - The Senate bill proposes to permanently retain corporate R&D expense deductions, interest expense deductions, and full asset depreciation deductions, while maintaining a $10,000 cap on state and local tax (SALT) deductions, which has faced strong opposition from Republicans advocating for SALT reform [2] - The bill also aims to raise the debt ceiling by $5 trillion to avoid potential default risks, amidst overall Democratic opposition and internal Republican disagreements on key policies like Medicaid cuts [2]

Group 1 - The ongoing military conflict between Israel and Iran is causing a decline in the number of vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, leading to increased shipping costs due to heightened regional security concerns [1][2] - The U.S. Senate has passed a significant cryptocurrency legislation aimed at promoting growth in the digital asset industry, marking a historic lobbying victory for cryptocurrency companies [2] - The European Union plans to phase out imports of Russian pipeline natural gas (PNG) and liquefied natural gas (LNG) by the end of 2027, alongside a complete halt to Russian oil imports [4] Group 2 - The Bank of Japan has decided to maintain its policy interest rate at around 0.5% and will slow the reduction of government bond purchases starting from April 2026, reducing the purchase amount from 4 trillion yen to 2 trillion yen per quarter [5] - A survey by the World Gold Council indicates that 95% of central banks believe they will continue to increase their gold holdings in the next 12 months, the highest percentage since the survey began in 2019 [5] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that global oil production will increase by 1.8 million barrels per day to 104.9 million barrels per day by 2025, while demand is expected to be 103.8 million barrels per day, leading to a supply surplus [5]

据央视新闻，当地时间6月17日，记者获悉，美国国会预算办公室当日发布的一项更全面的分析显示， 在计入经济影响后，特朗普政府的税改和预算法案将在未来十年内使财政赤字增加2.8万亿美元。据 悉，这份报告将预期的债务偿还成本纳入考量，发现该法案将提高 利率，并在联邦债务基准预测的基 础上增加4410亿美元的利息支出。美国国会预算办公室本月早些时候发布了静态评分分析，估计特朗普 政府的法案将带来数万亿美元的减税和削减开支，但也会导致十年内赤字增加2.4万亿美元，并导致额 外1090万人失去医疗保险。 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the "Beautiful Bill" (美丽大法案) and its implications for the U.S. economy and fiscal policy. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Tax Reduction Estimates**: The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that if the Beautiful Bill is enacted, it will result in a tax reduction of $3.8 trillion over the next ten years, accounting for approximately 5.8% of projected federal revenue during that period [1][2] 2. **Spending Cuts**: The bill is expected to reduce federal spending by about $1.5 trillion over the next decade, which is about 1.8% of total federal spending. Key areas of reduction include healthcare, student loans, and food stamps [1][4] 3. **Net Deficit Increase**: The overall impact of the bill will lead to a net increase in the deficit by $2.4 trillion, despite the proposed spending cuts [1][4] 4. **Foreign Taxation**: The bill introduces retaliatory taxes on certain foreign entities, increasing taxes on passive income such as dividends and interest by up to 20%, which could affect 892 tax exemptions for foreign government entities [1][5] 5. **Legislative Timeline**: The bill has passed the House and is awaiting Senate review, with potential enactment dates before the debt ceiling deadline in August or September [1][6] 6. **Fiscal Policy Discrepancies**: There are significant differences between the Senate and House regarding fiscal policy, with the Senate favoring looser fiscal measures and the House proposing substantial tax cuts [1][7] 7. **Debt Concerns**: The U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio has reached 120.8%, surpassing World War II peaks, and is expected to rise further with the bill's implementation [3][11] 8. **Market Reactions**: Concerns exist regarding the potential short-term increase in U.S. debt issuance if the fiscal bill is enacted, which could affect bond yields [3][13] 9. **Debt Management Strategy**: The U.S. Treasury has been focusing on issuing short-term debt to manage liquidity and keep financing costs low, with significant demand from money market funds [14][15] 10. **Impact of Stablecoin Regulation**: New regulations on stablecoins may alleviate some pressure on short-term debt, as stablecoins are increasingly backed by U.S. Treasury securities [17] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Republican Party Dynamics**: There is a division within the Republican Party regarding fiscal policy, with most members favoring fiscal expansion while a minority supports tightening measures [8][9] 2. **Long-term Economic Growth Concerns**: The ongoing increase in the debt ratio raises questions about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy, especially as economic growth has been slowing since 2024 [12] 3. **Liquidity Management by the Federal Reserve**: The Federal Reserve may need to adjust its balance sheet strategy to support the bond market if significant debt issuance occurs [19]

Core Viewpoint - Fitch Ratings has issued a more conservative forecast for Pakistan's fiscal deficit, citing potential difficulties in implementing expected tax reforms compared to the government's projections [1] Group 1 - Fitch Ratings' forecast for Pakistan's fiscal deficit is less optimistic than the government's expectations [1] - The potential challenges in implementing tax reforms are highlighted as a key factor influencing the fiscal outlook [1]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - In May, the US PPI increased by 2.6% year-on-year, matching expectations, while the core PPI rose by 3%, slightly below expectations [1] - The US fiscal deficit for the current fiscal year has reached $1.36 trillion, a 14% increase year-on-year, with May's deficit at $316 billion [3] - The interest expenditure on debt has become a significant threat to US fiscal health, with May's interest payments reaching $92 billion [3] Group 2: Company Performance - Oracle expects its cloud infrastructure sales to grow over 70% in the 2026 fiscal year, driven by strong AI computing demand, with total revenue projected to reach at least $67 billion [5][6] - Chime Financial's IPO saw its stock rise by 37.44%, with a market valuation of $13.5 billion, despite a significant drop from its 2021 valuation of $25 billion [7][8] - Silver prices have recently stabilized above $35 per ounce, with analysts predicting potential challenges to the historical high of $50 per ounce by year-end [9]

Core Viewpoint - The financial markets are expected to be dominated by high fiscal deficits and uncertainties surrounding tariff policies as 2024 approaches, with bond yields continuing to play a pivotal role in market direction [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - President Trump is anticipated to announce his choice for the next Federal Reserve Chair, which could lead to increased market volatility and affect long-term U.S. Treasury yields [1] - The current Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, faces criticism from Trump regarding interest rate policies, especially after the recent CPI data showed a year-on-year increase of 2.4% in May, lower than market expectations [1] - Market consensus suggests that any successor to Powell is likely to support interest rate cuts [2] Group 2: Economic Growth and Tariff Policies - Economic growth in the U.S. is projected to be slow in Q4, but could accelerate if tariff uncertainties are resolved, with Trump indicating a potential increase in tariffs on July 9 [3] - A preliminary agreement has been reached between the U.S. and China regarding a 55% tariff, which could stabilize market operations [3] Group 3: Fiscal Deficits and Bond Market - The House of Representatives has passed a tax reform bill expected to add $2.4 trillion to the deficit over the next decade, with projections indicating that by 2026, the deficit will account for 7% of GDP [3] - The bond market may experience "phase-like yield spikes" due to fiscal pressures, but yields are expected to eventually stabilize as funds flow into higher-yielding assets [3] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is anticipated to fluctuate between 3.75% and 4.625%, which will have broad implications for mortgage and other credit rates [3] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Fed Strategy - The Chief Investment Officer of BlackRock, Rick Rieder, suggests that if economic conditions remain weak, there is still a possibility of rate cuts in September, while Bank of America economists predict that cuts may not occur until next year [2] - MUFG's macro strategy head, George Goncalves, believes the 10-year Treasury yield will hover between 4% and 4.5%, emphasizing that the Fed's hesitation to act may be misplaced [4]

美国财长贝森特：关于税收法案对财政赤字影响的评分存在不同意见，我认为在未来十年内，财政赤字 将会减少。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is currently focused on the upcoming 30-year Treasury bond auction, which will provide insights into investor demand amid concerns over the expanding fiscal deficit [1] Group 1: Auction Details - The auction will have a size of $22 billion and is scheduled for 1 PM New York time [1] - This auction is part of the government's regular borrowing operations [1] Group 2: Economic Context - The auction coincides with Congress's review of a significant tax cut proposal by Donald Trump, which is predicted to increase the U.S. budget deficit by trillions of dollars [1] - The potential increase in the budget gap may necessitate the issuance of more bonds to fund government spending [1]

美国政府债务不断增加，赤字问题愈发严重。 周三，美国财政部公布的数据显示，在4月因税收季节带来的短暂盈余后，5月财政赤字迅速反弹至3160亿美元，推动年初至今的累计赤字达到 1.365万亿美元。 尽管5月赤字较去年同期下降9%，但年度赤字总额仍比去年同期飙升14%。更令人担忧的是，当前赤字规模已超过GDP的6%——这一水平在美国 和平时期经济中几乎前所未有。 不断膨胀的利息支出正在吞噬美国的财政根基，其规模已超越除联邦医疗保险（Medicare）和社保外的所有政府开支，分析指出美国财政赤字的 失控警报正变得愈发刺耳。 利息失控：赤字背后的真正推手 问题的核心不在于收入，而在于偿债成本的爆炸式增长。 在高达36.2万亿美元的债务重压下，利息支出已成为美国财政的最大威胁。5月份债务利息支出突破920亿美元，仅次于医疗保险和社会保障支 出，成为联邦预算的第三大开支项目。 数据显示，财政年度前八个月，债务融资成本已达7760亿美元，预计全年将超过1.2万亿美元。这一数字的背后是持续高企的收益率环境——10年 期美债收益率依然维持在4.4%附近，与一年前水平基本持平。 摩根大通CEO 戴蒙、贝莱德CEO Larry F ...