Group 1 - The launch of casting aluminum alloy futures on June 10 has seen all contracts rise, with the main contract reaching a high of 19,500 yuan and a low of 19,070 yuan, marking an increase of 4.63% [1] - Current market conditions indicate a strong upward trend for casting aluminum alloy, despite being in a traditional off-season for consumption [1] - Institutions suggest that the price difference between ADC12 and A00 is currently around -800 yuan, with historical mid-year lows typically between -1,000 to -1,500 yuan [1] Group 2 - The current spot price for ADC12 is approximately between 19,500 to 20,000 yuan per ton, with production costs at 20,086 yuan per ton, indicating a potential buying opportunity at lower prices [2] - Concerns about severe overcapacity in casting aluminum alloy production and the traditional off-season from June to August suggest a downward trend in the medium to long term [2] - The expected reasonable trading range for AD2511 is projected to be between 18,000 to 19,700 yuan per ton [2]

| 商品 | | | 动力煤（元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/06/09 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/06 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/05 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/04 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/03 | -191.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 850 900 950 动力煤基差 基差（右） 动力煤现货价:秦皇岛 期货结算价(活跃合约) :动力煤 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 6 月 10 日） 一、动力煤 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求 ...

石油沥青日报 | 2025-06-10 盘面区间震荡，市场支撑仍存 市场分析 1、6月9日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2509合约下午收盘价3488元/吨，较昨日结算价上涨10元/吨，涨幅 0.29%；持仓204621手，环比上涨23529手，成交263548手，环比上涨145776手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3800—4091元/吨；山东，3470—3650元/吨；华南，3460—3500元/吨； 华东，3580—3650元/吨。 昨日华北以及华南地区沥青现货价格有所上涨，山东地区沥青现货价格下跌，其余地区沥青现货价格以持稳为主。 盘面则延续区间震荡，呈现下游支撑但向上驱动不足的状态。就沥青自身基本面而言，供需两弱格局延续，终端 需求总体表现欠佳，进入6月份，北方地区气温适宜，部分基建项目进入施工期，但缺乏超季节性的增长动力；而 南方地区进入梅雨季节，频繁降雨天气导致道路施工受阻，抑制沥青终端消费。与此同时，目前市场供应增量有 限，整体开工率与库存均处于低位区间，叠加成本端的支撑，市场压力有限，但需求端改善乏力依然制约了市场 的上行空间。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：逢低多BU2507-25 ...

有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/06/09 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/09 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 78870 9826 7.97 三月 78820 9756 8.07 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.18 -1323.74 现货出口 833.76 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/09 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 22660 2660 8.52 三月 22225 2696 6.19 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.73 -556.23 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/09 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 20230 2462 8.21 三月 19975 2467 8.14 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.66 -1105.12 镍：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/09 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 123450 15320 8.06 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.27 -4308.57 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 16450 1963 8.41 三月 16775 1990 11.21 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.91 -996.08 跨期套利跟踪 2025/06/0 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report presents the cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data of non - ferrous metals (copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, tin) on June 6, 2025, including domestic and LME prices, price ratios, spreads, and theoretical spreads. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spot price in China is 78380, LME is 9731, ratio is 8.06; March price in China is 78040, LME is 9638, ratio is 8.11. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.19, profit is - 1366.56; spot export profit is 799.54 [1]. - **Zinc**: Spot price in China is 22870, LME is 2660, ratio is 8.60; March price in China is 22180, LME is 2696, ratio is 6.20. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.71, profit is - 303.28 [1]. - **Aluminum**: Spot price in China is 20250, LME is 2469, ratio is 8.20; March price in China is 19935, LME is 2477, ratio is 8.10. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.64, profit is - 1099.54 [1]. - **Nickel**: Spot price in China is 123100, LME is 15213, ratio is 8.09. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.26, profit is - 3495.98 [1]. - **Lead**: Spot price in China is 16500, LME is 1956, ratio is 8.44; March price in China is 16695, LME is 1979, ratio is 11.32. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.90, profit is - 900.72 [3]. 3.2 Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spreads of next - month, March, April, and May relative to spot - month are - 180, - 310, - 450, - 720 respectively; theoretical spreads are 494, 886, 1286, 1687 respectively [4]. - **Zinc**: Spreads of next - month, March, April, and May relative to spot - month are - 415, - 575, - 695, - 785 respectively; theoretical spreads are 217, 340, 462, 585 respectively [4]. - **Aluminum**: Spreads of next - month, March, April, and May relative to spot - month are - 155, - 230, - 280, - 325 respectively; theoretical spreads are 212, 325, 437, 550 respectively [4]. - **Lead**: Spreads of next - month, March, April, and May relative to spot - month are 75, 75, 55, 55 respectively; theoretical spreads are 208, 312, 416, 520 respectively [4]. - **Nickel**: Spreads of next - month, March, April, and May relative to spot - month are - 730, - 520, - 310, - 170 respectively [4]. - **Tin**: Spread of 5 - 1 is - 100, theoretical spread is 5377 [4]. 3.3 Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spreads of current - month and next - month contracts relative to spot are 0, - 180 respectively; theoretical spreads are 207, 615 respectively [4]. - **Zinc**: Spreads of current - month and next - month contracts relative to spot are - 115, - 530 respectively; theoretical spreads are 33, 165 respectively [4]. - **Lead**: Spreads of current - month and next - month contracts relative to spot are 120, 195 respectively; theoretical spreads are 127, 237 respectively [5]. 3.4 Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - Ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, lead/zinc in Shanghai (three - continuous) are 3.52, 3.91, 4.67, 0.90, 1.19, 0.75 respectively; in London (three - continuous) are 3.63, 3.93, 4.92, 0.92, 1.25, 0.74 respectively [5].

季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei015111@gtjas.com 2025 年 06 月 06 日 商 品 研 究 铜：库存持续走低，支撑价格 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 78,170 | -0.04% | 78570 | 0.51% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 9,708 | 0.61% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜主力合约 | 64,095 | -47,287 | 193,023 | -2,191 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 27,589 | 13,389 | 283,000 | -1,146 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 31,687 | -246 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 138,000 | -3,350 | 60.36% ...

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2025 年 6 月 3 日 镍：短线成本托底，预期偏弱压制 不锈钢：负反馈与减产博弈，钢价区间震荡 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 121,100 | 620 | -1,510 | -1,510 | -2,620 | -4,470 | | 期 | | 不锈钢主力（收盘价） | 12,685 | -5 | -190 | -190 | 15 | -530 | | 货 | | 沪镍主力（成交量） | 145,554 | -35,638 | 57,877 | 57,877 | 16,340 | -20,977 | | | | 不锈钢主力（成交量） | 124,523 | -15,027 | 15,423 | 15,423 | 2,552 | -41,365 | | | | 1#进口镍 | ...

Report Overview - The report provides cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals on June 3, 2025 [1] Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking Copper - Spot price: domestic 78,240, LME 9,604, ratio 8.13; March price: domestic 77,420, LME 9,554, ratio 8.14; equilibrium ratio for spot import 8.22, profit - 778.22; profit for spot export 507.68 [1] Zinc - Spot price: domestic 22,780, LME 2,639, ratio 8.63; March price: domestic 21,980, LME 2,662, ratio 6.22; equilibrium ratio for spot import 8.74, profit - 281.50 [1] Aluminum - Spot price: domestic 20,290, LME 2,446, ratio 8.29; March price: domestic 19,975, LME 2,452, ratio 8.18; equilibrium ratio for spot import 8.67, profit - 945.16 [1] Nickel - Spot price: domestic 122,450, LME 15,179, ratio 8.07; equilibrium ratio for spot import 8.28, profit - 4,102.92 [1] Lead - Spot price: domestic 16,350, LME 1,929, ratio 8.50; March price: domestic 16,610, LME 1,953, ratio 11.39; equilibrium ratio for spot import 8.93, profit - 824.33 [1][3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking Copper - Spread: next month - spot month - 330, March - spot month - 510, April - spot month - 710, May - spot month - 1030; theoretical spread 492, 881, 1280, 1679 respectively [4] Zinc - Spread: next month - spot month - 425, March - spot month - 670, April - spot month - 860, May - spot month - 945; theoretical spread 216, 339, 461, 583 respectively [4] Aluminum - Spread: next month - spot month - 105, March - spot month - 200, April - spot month - 250, May - spot month - 300; theoretical spread 212, 325, 438, 551 respectively [4] Lead - Spread: next month - spot month 85, March - spot month 75, April - spot month 50, May - spot month 50; theoretical spread 208, 311, 415, 519 respectively [4] Nickel - Spread: next month - spot month 1010, March - spot month 1260, April - spot month 1420, May - spot month 1550 [4] Tin - 5 - 1 spread not provided, theoretical spread 5,219 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking Copper - Spread: current month contract - spot - 285, next month contract - spot - 615; theoretical spread 238, 623 respectively [4] Zinc - Spread: current month contract - spot - 130, next month contract - spot - 555; theoretical spread 51, 183 respectively [4][5] Lead - Spread: current month contract - spot 185, next month contract - spot 270; theoretical spread 154, 264 respectively [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - Ratios for Shanghai (three - continuous): copper/zinc 3.52, copper/aluminum 3.88, copper/lead 4.66, aluminum/zinc 0.91, aluminum/lead 1.20, lead/zinc 0.76; ratios for LME (three - continuous): copper/zinc 3.63, copper/aluminum 3.89, copper/lead 4.85, aluminum/zinc 0.93, aluminum/lead 1.25, lead/zinc 0.75 [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents the cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data of various non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on May 28, 2025, which can help investors understand the price differences and potential arbitrage opportunities in different trading scenarios of these metals [1][4][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On May 28, 2025, the domestic spot price was 78,440, the LME price was 9,617, and the ratio was 8.15; the three - month domestic price was 77,660, the LME price was 9,577, and the ratio was 8.18. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.23, with a loss of 822.25, and a profit of 67.80 for spot export [1]. - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22,720, the LME price was 2,671, and the ratio was 8.51; the three - month domestic price was 22,155, the LME price was 2,692, and the ratio was 6.24. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.73, with a loss of 598.42 [1]. - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 20,200, the LME price was 2,445, and the ratio was 8.26; the three - month domestic price was 19,975, the LME price was 2,446, and the ratio was 8.18. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.69, with a loss of 1,042.43 [1]. - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 123,400, the LME price was 15,305, and the ratio was 8.06. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.28, with a loss of 4,225.15 [1]. - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 16,600, the three - month price was 16,810; the LME spot price was 1,964, the three - month price was 1,985; the ratios were 8.47 and 11.23 respectively. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.92, with a loss of 884.39 [3]. Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot month were - 370, - 610, - 880, and - 1,100 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 493, 885, 1,285, and 1,685 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 75, - 250, - 380, and - 425 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 215, 336, 457, and 578 [4]. - **Aluminum**: The spreads were - 170, - 235, - 285, and - 325 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 212, 325, 438, and 551 [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads were 45, 30, 20, and - 15 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 209, 314, 419, and 524 [4]. - **Nickel**: The spreads were - 470, - 280, - 60, and 190 respectively [4]. - **Tin**: The spread between the 5 - month and 1 - month contracts was - 930, and the theoretical spread was 5,510 [4]. Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot were - 215 and - 585 respectively [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 315 and - 390 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 144 and 241 [4][5]. - **Lead**: The spreads were 180 and 225 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 165 and 276 [5]. Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On May 28, 2025, for cross - variety arbitrage, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc in Shanghai (three - continuous) were 3.51, 3.89, 4.62, 0.90, 1.19, and 0.76 respectively; in London (three - continuous) were 3.55, 3.86, 4.83, 0.92, 1.25, and 0.73 respectively [7].