提醒：北京时间20:15，欧洲央行公布利率决议。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the gold market and the anticipated impact of the European Central Bank's (ECB) interest rate decision on gold prices, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut supporting gold in the medium to long term [1]. Group 1: Market Overview - The US dollar index has risen to 98.89, while gold is trading at $3,375.10 per ounce, showing a slight increase of 0.07% [1]. - Gold prices reached a high of $3,383.91 and a low of $3,360.88 during the trading session [1]. - The market is closely watching the ECB's interest rate decision and the changes in US initial jobless claims [1]. Group 2: Economic Analysis - Nadia Gharbi, a senior economist at Swiss wealth management firm Pictet, suggests that the ECB is unlikely to provide clear signals regarding July's rate actions but may indicate a pause in rate cuts [3]. - The US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported a decline in the non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) to 49.9, marking the first contraction in the service sector since June 2024 [3]. - Deutsche Bank maintains that the terminal rate for the ECB's easing cycle should remain at 1.50%, but the end of this cycle may come sooner than previously expected [3]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Following a rise on June 2, gold has been maintaining a narrow trading range, with expectations of continued volatility [4]. - Key support for gold is noted at $3,350, while a breakout above $3,385 could target the $3,410 level [4].

Key Points - The Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book, providing insights into the economic conditions across the U.S. [1] - China's Caixin Services PMI for May will be announced, which is crucial for understanding the service sector's performance [1] - The unemployment rate for Switzerland in May will be adjusted and reported [1] - Eurozone's Producer Price Index (PPI) for April will be released, indicating inflation trends [1] - Challenger's report on U.S. job cuts for May will be published, reflecting employment trends [1] - The European Central Bank (ECB) will announce its interest rate decision, impacting monetary policy [1] - The U.S. trade balance for April will be reported, providing insights into trade dynamics [1] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending May 31 will be released, indicating labor market conditions [1] - ECB President Lagarde will hold a press conference, likely discussing monetary policy and economic outlook [1] - The Global Supply Chain Pressure Index for May will be published in the U.S., reflecting supply chain conditions [1] - EIA's natural gas inventory report for the week ending May 30 will be released, impacting energy markets [1] - Federal Reserve Governor Cook will speak on economic outlook, providing insights into future monetary policy [1] - Federal Reserve's Harker will discuss economic prospects, which may influence market expectations [1] - Federal Reserve's Schmidt will address banking policies, relevant for financial sector stability [1]

加拿大掉期市场预计7月降息的概率为46%，今年总共可能进一步降息36个基点，低于加拿大利率决议 公布前预期的42个基点。 ...

Group 1 - The market widely expects the Bank of Canada to maintain the interest rate at 2.75% [1] - The Bank of Canada may not provide much forward guidance, with an increased likelihood of a dovish tone due to potential economic damage from trade wars [2] - Attention is focused on the Bank of Canada's views regarding trade wars, the economy, and inflation [3] Group 2 - There is also a focus on the Bank of Canada's perspectives on geopolitical situations, oil prices, and the Canadian dollar exchange rate [4] - The interest rate decision will be announced at 21:45 Beijing time [5]

Group 1 - The article highlights the release of final services PMI data from multiple European and American countries, which is crucial for assessing economic health [1] - The US ADP employment data is set to be published, providing insights into the labor market and potential economic trends [1] - The Bank of Canada is scheduled to announce its interest rate decision, which could impact monetary policy and market expectations [1]

Economic Data Releases - Australia's Q1 GDP data will be released, providing insights into the country's economic performance [1] - France's final services PMI for May will be published, indicating the health of the services sector [2] - Germany's final services PMI for May will also be released, contributing to the understanding of the economic landscape [3] - The Eurozone's final services PMI for May will be available, reflecting the overall services sector performance in the region [4] - The UK's final services PMI for May will be announced, offering a glimpse into the British services industry [5] - The US ADP employment figures for May will be disclosed, which are crucial for assessing job market trends [6] - Federal Reserve's Bostic will participate in an event, potentially providing insights into monetary policy [7] - The final services PMI for May from S&P Global in the US will be released, further informing on the services sector [8] - The Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision, impacting monetary policy and economic outlook [9] - The US ISM non-manufacturing PMI for May will be published, which is a key indicator of economic activity [10] - The EIA crude oil inventory data for the week ending May 30 will be released, affecting energy market dynamics [11] - The Federal Reserve will publish its Beige Book on economic conditions, offering qualitative insights into the economy [12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices are influenced by geopolitical tensions, particularly due to recent attacks on Russian military airports by Ukraine, leading to increased market volatility and a rise in gold prices [1] - Gold prices experienced a decline of 2% last week, with a trading range of 110 points, indicating a downward trend but with intermittent rebounds, suggesting a need for continuous monitoring of market fluctuations [5] - The market is currently focused on upcoming employment data and manufacturing indices, which could impact gold prices, as well as central bank interest rate decisions from Canada and Europe [3] Group 2 - The analysis of gold's daily chart shows that despite a noticeable high-level pullback at the beginning of the week, gold prices have maintained support at 3240, indicating strong protective measures from moving averages [3] - The short-term trading strategy suggests a focus on resistance levels around 3338 and potential short positions if gold reaches 3310-3315, with a target support level at 3288 [5] - The MACD indicator's position near the zero line suggests a fierce battle between bulls and bears in the current market, indicating uncertainty in price direction [3]

（3）经济数据与政策：美国4月个人消费支出（PCE）物价指数同比增长2.1%，低于预期的2.2%，这使得交易员继续押注美联储将在9月下调短期借贷成 本，利率期货显示美联储9月降息概率升至87%。美联储的货币政策预期对黄金影响重大，降息预期升温通常会降低持有黄金的机会成本，从而利多黄金。 此外，美国联邦上诉法院上周四暂时恢复特朗普总统最全面的关税政策，此前美国贸易法院曾裁定其越权并阻止征收关税，关税政策的不确定性也对市场产 生了一定影响。 2、本周重点关注 （1）重要数据：本周将公布一系列重要经济数据，包括美国 5 月 ISM 制造业 PMI、4 月 JOLTs 职位空缺、5 月 ADP 就业人数、5 月 ISM 非制造业 PMI、4 月贸易帐以及最受关注的 5 月非农就业报告等。 （2）央行政策动态：周三加拿大央行和周四欧洲央行将公布利率决议。如果央行维持利率不变或降息，会使得货币市场利率下降，持有黄金的机会成本降 低，对黄金价格形成支撑；若央行选择加息，则会提高持有黄金的机会成本，打压黄金价格。此外，虽然美联储6月15号才开会讨论利率，但市场对其加息 或降息的预期会提前反映在黄金价格波动上。若市场预期美联储 ...

Macro and Policy Level - The US ISM Manufacturing Index for May is expected to rise from 48.7 to 49.2, indicating a slight recovery but still below the expansion threshold [1] - The second round of direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine is scheduled to take place in Istanbul, which may impact global geopolitical dynamics, particularly in energy and commodity markets [2] - China's official manufacturing PMI for May increased by 0.5 percentage points to 49.5, while the non-manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 50.3, indicating continued expansion overall [2] - The US trade deficit for April is projected to narrow from $140.5 billion to $117.3 billion, reflecting a potential easing of the "export rush" effect [3] - The European Central Bank is expected to continue lowering interest rates in June, with market focus on future rate guidance amid economic growth concerns in the Eurozone [4] Financial Data - China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI for May are set to be released [5] - The US will release various economic indicators, including the May non-farm payroll report, with expectations of a decrease in job additions from 177,000 to 130,000 [7] Industry Level - CATL is set to launch monthly options for its H-shares, with the first contracts available on June 2, 2025 [6] - Nintendo will globally launch the Switch 2, featuring significant upgrades in hardware performance and gaming experience compared to its predecessor [8] Company Level - Xiaomi Group held its 2025 Investor Day, where management shared strategic directions and business developments, including a visit to its automotive factory [9] - Broadcom reported Q2 fiscal year 2025 earnings, projecting revenue of $14.9 billion, a 19% year-over-year increase, and AI semiconductor revenue of $4.4 billion, indicating strong growth potential [10]