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警报尚未解除!日本长债收益率继续高位徘徊
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-05-23 06:39
日本长债周五维持高位。30年期国债收益率小幅下挫至3.065%,维持高位逼近周三创下的3.185%历史高点,而40年期国债收益率仅较周四创下的3.675%纪 录高点小幅回落至3.665%。 "超长期国债变得'无法消化'的风险依然存在,"瑞穗(Mizuho)分析师在周五的一份研究报告中警告,"减少超长期债券发行(从而缩短久期)的动力相对强 劲。" DBS集团研究部的外汇和信贷策略师Chang Wei Liang则表示,除非日本的长期通胀预期在5个月内上升了1%,否则超长期日本国债收益率的飙升意味着日本 国债市场提供的平均实际利率显著跃升。这将鼓励日本资产管理公司的资金回流,并进一步支撑日元的复苏。 周五公布的数据显示,日本4月核心消费者通胀率达到3.5%,创下两年多来的最快年增速,这将继续给日本央行施加更多加息压力。这一数据高于3月份的 3.2%,同时也超过经济学家预期的3.4%。 在经历动荡一周后,日本长债周五维持高位。由于通胀和财政担忧削弱了对债务的需求,超长期收益率创下历史新高。 基准10年期日本国债收益率则小幅下降0.5个基点至1.555%。2年期收益率上涨0.5个基点至0.735%,5年期收益率则保持 ...
核心通胀继续“狂飙”!日本央行加息倒计时?
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-05-23 02:45
Group 1 - Japan's core inflation rose at its fastest pace in over two years in April, with the core consumer price index (CPI) increasing by 3.5% year-on-year, surpassing market expectations of 3.4% and up from 3.2% in March, indicating persistent inflation above the Bank of Japan's 2% target for over three years [1][2] - The inflation rate for food accelerated from 6.2% in March to 7.0% in April, driven by significant price increases in various food items, including a 98.6% rise in rice prices and a 31% increase in chocolate prices [2] - The Bank of Japan is expected to consider another interest rate hike by October, despite market skepticism due to the impact of U.S. trade tensions, with a slight majority of economists predicting a 25 basis point increase by year-end [1][3] Group 2 - A separate inflation index, excluding fuel and fresh food, rose by 3.0% year-on-year in April, up from 2.9% in March, indicating strong underlying demand-driven price pressures [2] - Service sector inflation was more subdued at 1.3% in April, down from 1.4% in March, suggesting companies are slow to pass on rising labor costs [2] - The potential for further increases in consumer prices in May is anticipated as the effects of government measures to curb inflation wane, with ongoing global weather patterns and rice supply shortages likely to keep food prices elevated [2]
国际黄金强势反弹拉升 日企呼吁日本央行暂停加息计划
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-05-22 02:03
美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)数据显示,截至5月21日,黄金ETF持有量为919.88吨,较上一交易日 减持了1.72吨。 最新路透调查显示,在日本经济面临关键转折点时,近三分之二的日本企业正急切呼吁日本央行暂停加 息计划。这项由日经研究在5月7日至16日期间进行的调查,覆盖了504家日本企业,其中224家匿名回 应。结果显示,高达65%的企业明确表示希望央行暂缓加息,另有10%的企业甚至呼吁降息,仅25%的 企业支持继续加息。这一强烈呼声背后,是日本经济第一季度意外萎缩的现实,以及特朗普政府关税政 策带来的巨大不确定性。 多家受访企业高管直言,特朗普关税政策如同一片难以驱散的阴云,正严重干扰企业的战略规划。一位 不愿具名的服务业公司经理在调查中写道:"当前最大的挑战是根本看不清谈判走向。任何利率调整都 应该等到政策能见度恢复后再做决定。"更严峻的是,电子行业高管指出,若美国对日本商品加征关 税,叠加加息导致的日元升值,出口行业将遭受"双重暴击"——既要承担关税成本,又要面对汇率波动 带来的利润侵蚀。 【上一交易日黄金行情解析】 黄金ETF最新持仓数据: | 日期 | 净持仓量(盎司) | 净持仓量(吨) ...
日本央行审议委员野口旭称,日本央行在加息过程中不应事先设定终端利率。
news flash· 2025-05-22 01:33
Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan should not pre-set a terminal interest rate during the rate hike process according to committee member Akira Noguchi [1] Group 1 - Akira Noguchi emphasizes the importance of flexibility in the Bank of Japan's approach to interest rate adjustments [1]
日本央行审议委员野口旭:日本央行在加息过程中不应事先设定终端利率。
news flash· 2025-05-22 01:33
Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan should not pre-set a terminal interest rate during the interest rate hike process [1] Group 1 - The statement emphasizes the importance of flexibility in monetary policy as the Bank of Japan navigates interest rate adjustments [1] - It suggests that setting a predetermined terminal rate could limit the central bank's ability to respond to changing economic conditions [1] - The commentary reflects ongoing discussions about the appropriate approach to interest rate management in Japan's economic context [1]
三菱日联:日本央行的政策立场可能继续支撑日元
news flash· 2025-05-20 12:23
金十数据5月20日讯,三菱日联的分析师Derek Halpenny在一份报告中表示,日元应该会继续得到支 撑,因为日本央行发出的信号仍倾向于进一步加息,而其他10国集团央行正在降息。"即使日本央行最 终不再加息,它也不太可能恢复货币宽松政策,这将继续支撑日元。"与此同时,美国财长贝森特和日 本财务大臣加藤胜信本星期将会晤,讨论包括外汇在内的问题。Halpenny说,贝森特认为日本央行的货 币政策导致美元兑日元汇率被高估,这一观点可能会抑制日本央行降息的意愿。 三菱日联:日本央行的政策立场可能继续支撑日元 ...
日本央行年内可能再度加息
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-05-19 04:24
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is prepared to continue raising interest rates if the Japanese economy accelerates and core inflation steadily approaches the 2% target [1] - BOJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida indicated that the central bank will not preset policy paths but will make decisions based on actual data performance, reflecting a "data-dependent" policy approach [1] - Recent GDP data for Q1 2025 showed a 1.8% annualized decline, indicating weak external demand affecting recovery, yet the BOJ maintains a view that rising wages and prices will support gradual policy normalization [1] Group 2 - The USD/JPY exchange rate has fallen below key technical levels, with the conversion line at 145.55 and the base line at 144.26, indicating bearish sentiment [2] - There are significant options expirations at various levels, including 144.35-50, 145.00, and 145.50-55, which may influence market movements [2] - The USD/JPY is forming a bullish hammer pattern above 145, but is facing resistance from the cloud chart above [3] Group 3 - Resistance levels for USD/JPY are identified at 146.45 (cloud bottom), 147.67 (high on May 15), and 148.17 (Bollinger Band upper limit) [4] - Support levels are noted at 144.17-144.26 (21-day moving average and base line) and 144.00 (high on May 7) [5]
日本央行副行长内田真一:日本央行将客观评估经济前景
news flash· 2025-05-19 02:03
5月19日,日本央行副行长內田真一重申央行的观点,即不确定性极高,将不带着先入之见来监测经济 前景。内田表示,如果物价趋势最终将升向2%的目标实现,央行将加息。受美国关税措施影响,日本 经济增长预计将放缓,这将对通胀造成压力。 ...
日本央行副行长内田真一:近期通胀受到成本推动因素的影响。预计增长放缓将对通胀构成压力。若经济前景实现,日本央行将加息。不确定性相当高。将不带成见地审视经济前景。
news flash· 2025-05-19 01:36
日本央行副行长内田真一:近期通胀受到成本推动因素的影响。 预计增长放缓将对通胀构成压力。 若经济前景实现,日本央行将加息。 不确定性相当高。 将不带成见地审视经济前景。 ...
日本4月份核心通胀率或创两年来最快增速
news flash· 2025-05-16 06:29
日本4月份核心通胀率或创两年来最快增速 金十数据5月16日讯,路透调查显示,日本4月核心通胀可能录得两年来最快增速,因能源补贴减少和食 品价格上涨,这加大了日本央行加息的压力。对19位经济学家进行的一项调查显示,日本4月份核心 CPI预计将同比上涨3.4%。这一数字将是自2023年4月以来的最高水平,而3月份为3.2%。瑞穗研究技术 的一位分析师表示:"尽管从4月份开始取消高校学费将是降低成本压力的一个因素,但非易变质食品和 餐厅服务价格的修正将是推高通胀的一个因素。" ...