智通财经4月22日电，国际货币基金组织表示，2025年美国经济衰退的可能性为40%，而去年10月的预 测为27%。 ...

IMF：美国2025年陷入衰退的概率为40%，去年10月预计为27%。 ...

对外，美国总统特朗普肆意挥舞关税大棒，与中国持续对峙的同时，还试图用关税这个虚空筹码逼迫其他国家答应美国的条件。对内，美国的一场"内战"打 得相当火热，特朗普和美联储主席鲍威尔都到了摊牌的时候了。 先说说特朗普为什么一直要美联储降息？美国政府今年将有9.2万亿债务到期，其中有6万多亿美元债务到期，而美债整体规模已经突破36万亿美元。特朗普 上台一直在贸易、关税政策上折腾，其实一个核心目的就是要引爆危机，迫使美联储降息。如果降息利率下降100个基点，年利息支出就能减少4000亿美 元。不仅缓解债务压力，还能缓解关税冲击，以及为其中期选举服务。 那为啥鲍威尔一直不降息呢？鲍威尔说过，过早降息可能加剧通胀失控风险。甚至可能重演1970年代滞胀危机，导致物价失控与经济长期萎靡。美联储现在 陷入加息即摧毁长端资产，降息则放任通胀甚至滞胀的双杀困局。如果降息了，这经济衰退的锅肯定要扣在美联储头上，还不如躺平不动，见死不救。而特 朗普和鲍威尔这场战斗，说实话谁赢了都没用，只有慢性自杀和暴毙的区别，因为美债与美元都出了问题。 这次特朗普如此气愤，大概率是因为鲍威尔最近的表态。鲍威尔说，美国政府的关税政策极有可能导致美国通胀出 ...

美元本周跌至2023年12月以来的最低水平，此前特朗普威胁要解僱鲍威尔，加上美国经济衰退的风险加 剧了"卖出美国"的交易。瑞穗银行首席亚洲外汇策略师Ken Cheung表示，大量看跌仓位、技术面和实际 收益率差异表明，美元可能反弹，尽管涨幅可能受到美元负面消息的限制。 ...

Group 1 - The risk of a significant slowdown or recession in the U.S. economy has increased due to the imposition of tariffs, with experts and institutions expressing concerns [1] - The University of Michigan reported that U.S. consumer inflation expectations for the next year rose to 6.7%, up from 5% in March [1] - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, indicated that the U.S. economy is very close to recession, and if issues are not addressed, the situation could worsen due to high government debt and tariffs [1] Group 2 - The U.S. stock market experienced a notable decline, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by 2.48%, the S&P 500 by 2.36%, and the Nasdaq Composite by 2.55% on April 21 [1] - The U.S. dollar index dropped by 1.10%, closing at 98.278, marking the first time in three years it fell below the 99 threshold [1] - The toy industry is one of the hardest-hit sectors by the tariff policies, with U.S. toy store owners and company leaders reporting significant burdens due to increased costs [1] Group 3 - In 2024, the U.S. imported toys worth over $17 billion, with more than $13 billion coming from China [2] - The wedding industry in the U.S. is also affected, as many imported items such as wedding dresses, candles, and invitations primarily come from China, while alcohol is sourced from Europe and 80% of flowers are imported [2] - Industry professionals in the wedding sector are expressing concerns that increased tariffs are leading to higher costs for both businesses and consumers [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant decline in U.S. stock markets, the volatility in U.S. Treasury yields, and the weakening of the U.S. dollar, indicating a potential economic downturn and investor concerns regarding U.S. assets [1][2][3]. Group 1: U.S. Stock Market Performance - On April 21, U.S. stock indices experienced a sharp decline, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 all dropping over 2% [1]. - The Dow Jones fell by 971.82 points, marking a significant downturn in the market [3]. - Major technology stocks also saw substantial losses, with the "Big Seven" tech companies losing a combined market value of $404.6 billion (approximately 2.95 trillion RMB) [5]. Group 2: U.S. Dollar and Treasury Yields - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.88% to 98.35, reaching a three-year low, and briefly dropped below the 99 and 98 thresholds [1]. - The dollar has weakened by 9.38% year-to-date, with a notable decline of 5.66% in April alone [8]. - Concerns about U.S. credit and economic conditions have led to a significant drop in the dollar's value, with analysts suggesting that the weakening is linked to rising recession expectations [9][10]. Group 3: Economic Outlook and Investor Sentiment - Analysts predict an increase in recession risks for the U.S. economy, with Goldman Sachs' CEO highlighting the growing uncertainty impacting both U.S. and global economic conditions [18]. - The article notes that global investors are continuing to sell off U.S. assets, reflecting a lack of confidence in the U.S. economy [12][16]. - The uncertainty surrounding trade policies and tariffs is contributing to a cautious approach among investors, as they navigate the volatile market environment [19].

Core Viewpoint - The global financial market is still experiencing the "aftershocks" caused by the U.S. imposition of tariffs, leading to increased volatility and uncertainty in both U.S. and global markets [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - On April 21, U.S. stock indices fell over 2%, with the Dow Jones index dropping more than 8% and the Nasdaq index over 10% in the past 20 days [2]. - The U.S. dollar weakened against major currencies, with the dollar index briefly falling below 98, while spot gold rose above $3,400 per ounce [2]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Foreign investors are becoming cautious about the outlook for U.S. stocks, with many institutions downgrading their expectations for U.S. stock performance amid ongoing trade disputes [3][4]. - Wellington Management noted that the recent sell-off in the stock market is a correction process due to tariff and policy uncertainties, leading to a reassessment of growth expectations [4]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - There is a rising probability of a recession in the U.S. economy, with Goldman Sachs predicting near-zero growth and a 45% chance of a full recession within the next 12 months [12]. - The VIX fear index surged from 15.2 to 60.13, indicating heightened market uncertainty [11]. Group 4: Bond Market Dynamics - Recent weeks saw a rise in U.S. Treasury yields and a decline in the dollar index, reflecting a loss of confidence in U.S. Treasuries as a safe-haven asset [6][8]. - The 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.5%, marking the highest weekly increase since 2001, while the 30-year yield briefly surpassed 5% [7]. Group 5: Tariff Impact - The imposition of tariffs is expected to exacerbate inflationary pressures in the U.S., with over 80% of surveyed economists believing it will significantly increase inflation [12]. - The unpredictable nature of U.S. tariff policies is damaging investor confidence and increasing volatility in global markets [5][10]. Group 6: Long-term Implications - The ongoing trade tensions and tariff policies may lead to a restructuring of global supply chains and increased long-term trade and financing costs [12][13]. - The potential for "de-dollarization" is increasing as global trade dynamics shift away from reliance on the U.S. dollar [9].

Group 1: Dollar's Plunge - The dollar index has fallen below 99, marking its lowest level since April 2022, with a daily drop exceeding 1% and a cumulative decline of nearly 6% in April, and over 9% year-to-date [1][3] - The rapid decline of the dollar has led to a surge in other currencies like the euro and yen, which have significantly appreciated against the dollar [3][4] - The drop in the dollar's value has prompted a massive influx of capital into gold, as investors seek refuge from the declining dollar [4] Group 2: Policy Impact - Trump's tariff policies are identified as a key trigger for the dollar's decline, disrupting the previous balance of the dollar's global circulation [5][8] - The imposition of high tariffs has resulted in reduced exports from China to the U.S., leading to a decrease in the dollar's circulation and demand in international markets [8][9] - Trump's erratic policy announcements have created uncertainty, causing investors to flee from dollar assets in search of more stable investments [9] Group 3: Economic Indicators - Economic indicators in the U.S. have been showing signs of weakness since January, with a continuous decline in the Citi Economic Surprise Index [10][11] - Major U.S. corporations are reporting disappointing earnings, particularly in the tech and retail sectors, contributing to investor concerns about the future economic outlook [13] - The overall sentiment among investors is shifting away from dollar assets due to fears of an impending economic recession in the U.S. [13] Group 4: Global De-dollarization - A global trend of de-dollarization is emerging, with countries like Russia leading the charge by selling off U.S. Treasury bonds and shifting trade settlements to currencies like the euro and yuan [14][17] - Other nations, including India and Iran, are also reducing their reliance on the dollar for trade, opting for local currencies instead [17] - This de-dollarization movement is seen as a response to the risks associated with over-reliance on the dollar, particularly in light of potential U.S. financial sanctions [17] Group 5: Impact on Individuals and Markets - The dollar's decline is expected to affect ordinary consumers, especially those planning to study or travel abroad, as the value of the dollar fluctuates [18][19] - The volatility of the dollar may lead to increased prices for commodities priced in dollars, impacting stock markets and investor confidence [21] - The real estate market may experience mixed effects, with potential capital outflows in cities heavily reliant on foreign investment, while a stronger yuan could attract some foreign capital [21] Group 6: Future Outlook - The long-term implications of the dollar's decline remain uncertain, but it is clear that the global economic and financial landscape is undergoing significant changes [23] - Investors are advised to consider diversifying their portfolios away from dollar assets, potentially including gold and other stable currencies [23] - The current situation presents both challenges and opportunities, emphasizing the need for investors to remain vigilant and adaptable in their strategies [23]

周一，美元指数（DXY）暴跌超过1%，一度跌破整数关口98，为2022年3月以来最低点。当天，黄金历 史上首次正式突破3400美元/盎司。 国际金价和美元指数走势对比图（2020年8月至今） 美联储独立性遭质疑 美国总统特朗普上周频繁施压美联储，以及威胁要撤职美联储主席鲍威尔，美联储的独立性正在遭到市 场的怀疑。独立的中央银行被大多数人视为市场经济的基石。企业、投资者、消费者等通过校准银行贷 款和抵押贷款等债务所依据的基准利率来引导经济。 特朗普上周五表示："如果我们有一个了解他在做什么的美联储主席，利率也会下降。"这是他在上周连 续质疑鲍威尔后的最新表态。白宫也表示，官员们正在评估他们是否可以罢免美联储主席。 但美联储官员则密集表达了对白宫干预的反对。周日，芝加哥联储主席奥斯坦·古尔斯比就警告不要限 制央行的独立性，称货币政策需要免受政治干预。 古尔斯比在一场公开活动中表示，质疑货币政策独立性将损害美联储的信誉。参议员艾米·克洛布查尔 也支持美联储的独立性，指出法律规定美联储主席只能因渎职或犯罪等"正当理由"被解职。她认为鲍威 尔的工作做得很好，并强调美联储的独立性在应对各种危机中发挥了重要作用。 事实上， ...

4月2日以来，特朗普关税落地后，美元汇率"意外"走弱、但人民币仍相对承压。近期美元走弱背后的"异 象"，后续美元、人民币汇率的可能演绎？本文分析，可供参考。 一、近期美元走弱有何异常？与美德利差走势背离，兑发达市场与新兴市场分化 年初以来，美元持续走弱，兑发达市场与新兴市场货币的走势明显分化。 1月10日以来，美元持续走 弱；截至4月17日，美元指数跌破100关口、跌至99.4，跌幅高达9.3%。分经济体来看，美元兑发达市 场、新兴市场货币的走势明显分化，分别回落7.6%、1.4%。 赵 伟 申万宏源证券首席经济学家 陈达飞 首席宏观分析师 李欣越 高级宏观分析师 联系人： 李欣越 4月7日以前，美元的走弱主因美国衰退预期的升温。 1月10日以来，美国经济持续走弱，花旗经济意外 指数由14.5回落至-19.5。衰退担忧下，市场的降息预期也逐步回升，由1.2次一度升至4月4日的4.2次，10 年期美债利率随之大幅回落62bp、导致了美元的相对疲软。 4月7日以来，美债利率反弹、但美元仍在走弱，或因海外资金在"逃离美国"。 市场完成了从"flight to safety"向"flight to non-US"的切 ...