中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 政策真空资金持续流入稳定增长的黄金，短期重大事件落地，流动性风险偏好尚可， | | | 长线持有 | 基本面短期没有重大事件驱动。中长期来看，地缘秩序重塑，不确定性持续存在， | | ★ | | 央行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | | | 白银交割故事或将持续重演，长期来看市场押注降息持续、供需缺口连续 5 年持续， | | 白银 | 控制风险 | 全球大财政均对白银长期有利，长期做多逻辑不变。短期金银比价大幅快速降低， | | ★★ | | 盘面进入超买区间，谨防高波动风险。 | | | | LME 因圣诞节休市两天，美国三季度 GDP 超预期，市场流动性充裕，风险偏好提高， | | 铜 | 长线持有 | 基本面对铜强支撑，铜续创历史新高。隔夜铜高位调整，波动放大，建议铜多单部 | | ★ | | 分移动逢高止盈，中长期对铜依旧看好。 | | | | 海外锌隐形库存加速显性化，锌精矿加工费持续下调，下游进入消费淡季，整体供 | | 锌 | 反弹承压 | 需双弱，国内淡季去库。锌承压回 ...

临近2025年收官，贵金属继续"狂欢"。 现货黄金、白银、铂金均创出历史新高。其中，现货黄金一度突破4525美元/盎司，现货白银则在盘中一度突破72.7美元/盎司，铂金期货一度突破2400美元/ 盎司，三者均在12月24日盘中创出历史纪录。与此同时，三者在创出新高后出现震荡调整。 每经编辑：杜宇 值得注意的是，白银今年涨幅已接近150%，成为今年涨幅最高的贵金属品种。在近期白银价格狂飙的同时，A股一只国投白银LOF基金连续第三天涨停，溢 价超68%。 12月24日午后，杭州一位"70后"向钱江晚报透露："太疯狂了，在这只基金上赚了3万多元，今天跑了。" 这位投资者表示，她是9月底买入该基金的，买入后的两个月，都涨得还算温和，12月份这么个涨幅，太吓人，拿不住就离场了。 从月涨幅来看，该基金10、11、12月份涨幅分别为4.37%、16.37%、103.93%，12月份的涨幅确实惊人。 12月24日早上，该基金临时停牌一小时，复牌即涨停，再次刷新场内价格高度。 "我认为高溢价率不可持续，像国投白银LOF的场内交易价格已严重偏离实际净值，投资者不要盲目追高，否则可能面临双重风险：既要承受白银价格回调 的损失，也要 ...

行业 贵金属日评 2025 年 12 月 25 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 日期 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 虽然美国三季度经济增速远超市场预期推高美债利率，但市场臆测联邦政府 停摆将拖累美国四季度经济增长，同时美联储主席候选人继续呼吁美联储降息， 美元指数跌破 98 关口，流动性溢价与计价货币因素继续推动贵金属板块偏强运 行；广期所铂钯行情未见停止迹象，但近期价格飙升也累积了内在调整风险，加 上圣诞节期间成交稀少价格波动性上升，建议投资者适当降低仓位。总体看在年 底消费旺季、美联储宽松货币政策和全球增长前景改善等因素影响下，近期贵金 属板块特别是工 ...

在这一轮波澜壮阔的行情演绎中，贵金属产业链的上下游却是"几家欢乐几家愁"。以黄金产业为例，上 游矿企受益于价格上涨而业绩亮眼，下游消费端企业则因首饰需求和投资需求的"冰火两重天"，在行业 调整中探寻新机。 展望2026年，贵金属价格又将如何演绎？产业链各环节又将在这轮变革中如何重寻自身定位？ 贵金属迎来"爆发" 同花顺数据显示，截至北京时间12月24日17时，伦敦现货黄金价格自2025年初至今上涨70%，白银和铂 金的现货价格涨幅则分别超过140%和160%。 从今年初开始，多位首席经济学家在"上证·首席讲坛"上便明确表示看好黄金，并指出黄金价格上行的 逻辑并未发生根本性变化。由于全球经济和政治仍存在不确定性，市场对避险资产的需求、新兴市场央 行购金需求，以及市场对美联储的降息预期等因素或在中长期内对黄金价格形成支撑。 回首2025年，贵金属以前所未有的涨势被放在聚光灯下。 这一年，黄金以领先之态在投资市场跑赢大多数大类资产，白银以后来居上之势突破72美元/盎司，铂 金则以黑马之姿夺得最高涨幅。 齐盛期货贵金属分析师刘旭峰对上海证券报记者表示，这两年，美元利率、美债与黄金价格走势呈现从 强负相关、弱负相关到同 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - At the end of the year, driven by multiple factors, some investors choose to pre - "rush" to allocate precious metals, with continuous increase in ETF holdings and rising derivatives positions. In the absence of clear negative factors, the short - term market will maintain a relatively strong oscillation. [1] - In the short term, as the COMEX silver approaches the last trading day, the physical delivery demand decreases, and the domestic inventory increase may ease the bullish sentiment. During the sharp rise of silver, attention should be paid to changes in the number of open contracts, warehouse receipt inventory, and regulatory risk - control measures to prevent the risk of speculative bulls taking profits at high levels. However, high volatility continues to provide upward momentum for prices. It is recommended to continue holding long positions, reduce positions or lock positions on rallies before the Spring Festival. [1] - Platinum and palladium are strong in terms of macro - and supply - demand fundamentals, and their prices are still undervalued compared to gold. Driven by funds, value reshaping is expected, and they are likely to continue to oscillate upward in the medium - to long - term. In the short term, in the domestic market, since the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's platinum and palladium futures are in the early listing stage, the overall position liquidity needs improvement, and the domestic price shows a premium compared to the overseas market. With strengthened regulatory risk - control measures, platinum and palladium still face short - term correction risks, and palladium may experience a significant correction due to its weak fundamentals. [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Closing Prices - AU2602 contract closed at 1014.68 yuan/gram on December 24, up 0.04% from the previous day [1]. - AG2602 contract closed at 17609 yuan/kilogram on December 24, up 7.10% from the previous day [1]. - PT2606 contract closed at 657.65 yuan/gram on December 24, up 6.08% from the previous day [1]. - PD2606 contract closed at 578.45 yuan/gram on December 24, up 8.62% from the previous day [1]. Foreign Futures Closing Prices - COMEX gold主力 contract closed at 4505.40 dollars/ounce on December 24, down 0.21% from the previous day [1]. - COMEX silver主力 contract closed at 71.88 dollars/ounce on December 24, up 0.37% from the previous day [1]. - NYMEX platinum主力 contract closed at 2272.90 dollars/ounce on December 24, down 2.03% from the previous day [1]. - NYMEX palladium主力 contract closed at 1821.00 dollars/ounce on December 24, down 7.28% from the previous day [1]. Spot Prices - London gold was at 4479.39 dollars/ounce on December 24, down 0.12% from the previous day [1]. - London silver was at 71.81 dollars/ounce on December 24, up 0.56% from the previous day [1]. - Spot platinum was at 2221.83 dollars/ounce on December 24, up 0.63% from the previous day [1]. - Spot palladium was at 1683.58 dollars/ounce on December 24, down 8.35% from the previous day [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D was at 1007.22 yuan/gram on December 24, up 0.08% from the previous day [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver T + D was at 17714 yuan/kilogram on December 24, up 7.88% from the previous day [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum 9995 was at 607 yuan/gram on December 24, up 8.08% from the previous day [1]. Basis - The basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold主力 was -7.46, up 0.33 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 1.20% [1]. - The basis of silver TD - Shanghai silver主力 was 105, up 126 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 99.50% [1]. - The basis of London gold - COMEX gold was -26.01, up 4.11 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 30.20% [1]. - The basis of London silver - COMEX silver was -0.06, up 0.14 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 70.10% [1]. Price Ratios - The price ratio of COMEX gold/silver was 62.68 on December 24, down 0.58% from the previous day [1]. - The price ratio of SHFE gold/silver was 57.62 on December 24, down 6.59% from the previous day [1]. - The price ratio of NYMEX platinum/palladium was 1.25 on December 24, up 5.66% from the previous day [1]. - The price ratio of GZFE platinum/palladium was 1.14 on December 24, down 2.34% from the previous day [1]. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.15% on December 24, down 0.7% from the previous day [1]. - The 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.47% on December 24, down 0.3% from the previous day [1]. - The 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield was 1.91% on December 24, down 1.5% from the previous day [1]. - The US dollar index was 97.95 on December 24, up 0.05% from the previous day [1]. - The offshore RMB exchange rate was 7.0076 on December 24, down 0.17% from the previous day [1]. Inventory and Positions - The SHFE gold inventory was 93711 kilograms on December 24, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The SHFE silver inventory was 881949 kilograms on December 24, down 1.97% from the previous day [1]. - The COMEX gold inventory was 36159361 ounces on December 24, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The COMEX silver inventory was 451352686 ounces on December 24, up 0.10% from the previous day [1]. - The COMEX gold registered warehouse receipts were 19321904 ounces on December 24, up 0.60% from the previous day [1]. - The COMEX silver registered warehouse receipts were 127214282 ounces on December 24, down 1.09% from the previous day [1]. - The SPDR gold ETF position was 1068 tons on December 24, up 0.35% from the previous day [1]. - The SLV silver ETF position was 16447 tons on December 24, down 0.34% from the previous day [1].

Group 1 - Precious metals are experiencing a significant surge in prices, driven by geopolitical risks, ongoing global supply shortages, and strong investment demand, with gold prices surpassing $4500 per ounce for the first time in history [1] - The recent strength in gold prices is attributed to expectations of interest rate cuts in December, higher-than-expected unemployment rates, and lower-than-expected CPI, which have increased the likelihood of rate cuts in January [1] - Central banks' continued large-scale purchases of gold provide a solid foundation for the current bull market, with global gold ETF holdings increasing every month this year, except for May, and the largest gold ETF (SPDR Gold Trust) seeing its holdings grow by over 20% this year [1] Group 2 - The silver LOF (Listed Open-Ended Fund) has seen a surge, with a price increase leading to a premium close to 70%, attracting market attention for arbitrage opportunities [2] - Investors can take advantage of the price difference between the LOF's market price and its net asset value by purchasing at net value and selling at the higher market price, although this strategy carries inherent risks [2] - The high premium and price increase have led to a spillover effect, causing multiple commodity LOF products to hit their price limits, indicating strong market interest [2]

早上好！ 平安夜里，据CME"美联储观察"，美联储2026年1月降息25个基点的概率为15.5%，维持利率不变的概 率为84.5%。美联储到明年3月累计降息25个基点的概率为42.2%，维持利率不变的概率为51.8%，累计 降息50个基点的概率为6%。 泽连斯基公布俄乌"和平计划"草案20点内容 据新华社援引乌克兰通讯社24日报道，乌克兰总统泽连斯基在记者简报会上公布了最新版俄乌"和平计 划"草案的20点内容，并强调该文件仍为草案，其条款可能在谈判过程中有所修改。 泽连斯基告诉记者，这份文件被称为"框架文件"，在很大程度上反映了乌克兰和美国的共同立场，部分 反映了美方立场，但仍有一些问题需解决，"不过，我们在最终敲定文件方面已经取得了显著进展"。 泽连斯基介绍了草案20点内容。其中包括，乌克兰的主权将得到重申；为维持俄乌长期和平，将建立接 触线监督机制；乌克兰将获得有力安全保障；乌武装部队在和平时期规模将保持在80万人；美国、北约 和欧洲将向乌克兰提供类似北约第五条集体防御条款的保障；俄罗斯把不侵略欧洲和乌克兰的政策写入 所有必要的文件中；乌克兰成为欧盟成员国，并有入盟明确时间框架；设立多个基金，目标是筹集8 ...

回首2025年，贵金属以前所未有的涨势被放在聚光灯下。这一年，黄金以领先之态在投资市场跑赢大多 数大类资产，白银以后来居上之势突破72美元/盎司，铂金则以黑马之姿夺得最高涨幅。同花顺数据显 示，截至北京时间12月24日17时，伦敦现货黄金价格自2025年初至今上涨70%，白银和铂金的现货价格 涨幅则分别超过140%和160%。2026年，贵金属将向何处去？银河期货贵金属高级研究员王露晨表示， 黄金的主要逻辑框架未发生大的变化，牛市格局或将延续。光大期货有色研究团队认为：对于白银而 言，会跟随黄金的节奏，但白银弹性更大；铂金在2026年的走势不仅被动跟随黄金的金融属性上行，也 会受到基本面影响，预计铂金将展现更强的价格弹性与上行空间。（上证报） ...

Group 1: Market Performance - The US stock market indices all rose, with the S&P 500 index reaching a new all-time high during intraday trading [3] - The Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 indices closed up by 0.60%, 0.22%, and 0.32% respectively [3] - Popular Chinese concept stocks showed mixed performance, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index slightly down by 0.07% [5] Group 2: Nike and Apple CEO's Investment - Apple CEO Tim Cook purchased 50,000 shares of Nike at a price of $58.97 per share, totaling nearly $3 million [2] - Following this news, Nike's stock price surged by 4.66%, bringing its total market capitalization to $88.7 billion [2] - Despite a significant decline in Nike's latest financial performance, Cook's investment indicates confidence in the company's future value [2] Group 3: Commodity Market - International gold and silver prices reached new historical highs, although they later showed divergent trends [6] - As of December 24, COMEX gold futures and London gold spot prices were reported at $4,505.4 per ounce and $4,479.39 per ounce, respectively, with slight declines of 0.01% and 0.10% [6][7] - Silver prices, however, increased, with COMEX silver futures and London silver spot prices at $71.875 per ounce and $71.81 per ounce, reflecting gains of 1.04% and 0.50% [6][7] - Year-to-date, gold prices have increased by over 70%, while silver prices have surged by more than 145% [6]

◎记者 曾庆怡 回首2025年，贵金属以前所未有的涨势被放在聚光灯下。 这一年，黄金以领先之态在投资市场跑赢大多数大类资产，白银以后来居上之势突破72美元/盎司，铂 金则以黑马之姿夺得最高涨幅。 在这一轮波澜壮阔的行情演绎中，贵金属产业链的上下游却是"几家欢乐几家愁"。以黄金产业为例，上 游矿企受益于价格上涨而业绩亮眼，下游消费端企业则因首饰需求和投资需求的"冰火两重天"，在行业 调整中探寻新机。 展望2026年，贵金属价格又将如何演绎？产业链各环节又将在这轮变革中如何重寻自身定位？ 贵金属迎来"爆发" 同花顺数据显示，截至北京时间12月24日17时，伦敦现货黄金价格自2025年初至今上涨70%，白银和铂 金的现货价格涨幅则分别超过140%和160%。 从今年初开始，多位首席经济学家在"上证·首席讲坛"上便明确表示看好黄金，并指出黄金价格上行的 逻辑并未发生根本性变化。由于全球经济和政治仍存在不确定性，市场对避险资产的需求、新兴市场央 行购金需求，以及市场对美联储的降息预期等因素或在中长期内对黄金价格形成支撑。 齐盛期货贵金属分析师刘旭峰对上海证券报记者表示，这两年，美元利率、美债与黄金价格走势呈现从 强负相 ...