1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the container shipping industry is neutral, suggesting short - term observation [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The spot freight rate of the container shipping index is fluctuating, and attention should be paid to the new round of tariffs. Multiple factors such as shipping company operations, political - economic situations, supply and demand of shipping capacity, and market sentiment all have an impact on the market [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Spot Freight Rate**: The situation varies among different alliances and time periods. In early July, the overall price range is 2900 - 3600, with a central price of 3200. In late July, prices in some alliances have increased. The overall impact on the freight rate is neutral [3] - **Political and Economic Factors**: Trump plans to impose tariffs ranging from 10% - 20% to 60% - 70%, starting on August 1st. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates before September has dropped from 98% to about 80%. OPEC + will increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August. There are also trade frictions between China and the EU. The overall impact on the market is neutral [3] - **Shipping Capacity Supply**: At the beginning of July, new ships were delivered, and the shipping capacity of some routes returned to the European line, with a weekly capacity of 314,000 TEU, a 12% increase compared to June. Port strikes in Europe have led to about a 15% loss of effective shipping capacity. There is congestion at ports in Asia. The overall impact on the market is neutral [3] - **Demand**: There was continuous over - booking in early July, but the subsequent peak - season inventory demand in Europe is expected to be weaker than expected, and the cargo volume support is insufficient. The overall impact on the market is neutral [3] - **Market**: This week, affected by Maersk's flat - opening in the third week of July being higher than market expectations, the market fluctuated upward. The main contract has recovered from a deep discount state, but the upward trend is expected to be limited [3] - **Investment and Trading Strategies**: The investment view is short - term observation. The trading strategy is to hold a long position in the 12 - 4 spread arbitrage while remaining on the sidelines for single - side trading [3] 3.2 Price - The spot market has slow demand recovery, high supply, the establishment of new alliances, and price drops in the off - season [5] 3.3 Static Shipping Capacity - **Order Volume**: There are order volume data divided by different loading capacities over the years, including the proportion of the order book to the fleet for different types of container ships [16][17] - **New Orders**: New order volume data are presented for different loading capacities of container ships from 2022 - 2025 [18][19] - **Delivery Volume**: Delivery volume data for different loading capacities of container ships from 2020 - 2025 are shown, as well as demolition volume data [24][25] - **Future Delivery**: Future delivery volume data are provided, including data by quarter and by loading capacity from 2023 - 2029 [30][32] - **Ship - breaking Price**: Ship - breaking price data for different loading capacities and the new - building price index and second - hand ship price index of container ships are presented [37][43] - **Existing Shipping Capacity**: Data on the existing shipping capacity of container ships, including the proportion of ships over 25 years old, idle and retrofit ratios, average age, and ship - breaking average age, are provided [52][58] 3.4 Dynamic Shipping Capacity - **Shipping Schedule**: The total shipping capacity deployment from Shanghai to European base ports is shown, including the capacity deployment of different alliances such as PA + MSC, GEMINI, and OCEAN [66][67] - **Desulfurization Tower Installation**: Data on container ships with installed desulfurization towers, those being installed, average installation age and duration, and average speed are presented [77][83] - **Idle Shipping Capacity**: Data on idle shipping capacity, including the amount, proportion, and breakdown by loading capacity, are provided [88][89]

Group 1: Report Overview - Date of the report: July 7, 2025 [1] - Report type: Container Shipping Daily Report - Research group: Shipping Research Group Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - Amid geopolitical conflicts, the market has high complexity and uncertainty, with multiple long - and short - term factors intertwined, making it difficult to predict. It is recommended to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines [2][4] - The short - term market may rebound, and it is advised to stop losses on short positions. Risk - takers can try to go long on the 2510 contract below 1300 with stop - loss and take - profit set [5] - In the context of international turmoil, it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage strategies [5] - For long - term strategies, it is advised to take profits when the contracts rise and wait for a pullback to stabilize before determining the subsequent direction [5] Group 4: Market Information Freight Index - On July 4, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2123.24 points, up 9.6% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1619.19 points, down 22.3% from the previous period [3] - The Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1285.2 points, down 7.9% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1442.5 points, unchanged from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 1176.6 points, down 24.3% from the previous period [3] - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1763.49 points, down 98.02 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 2101 USD/TEU, up 3.50% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US West route was 2089 USD/FEU, down 18.97% from the previous period [3] - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1342.99 points, down 1.9% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1694.30 points, up 3.3% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 1084.28 points, down 10.5% from the previous period [3] Economic Data - Eurozone's June manufacturing PMI flash was 49.4 (expected 49.8, previous 49.4); services PMI flash was 50 (2 - month high, expected 50, previous 49.7); composite PMI flash was 50.2 (expected 50.5, previous 50.2); Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2 (expected - 6, previous - 8.1) [3] - China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than May and the same as April, back above the critical point [3] - US June Markit manufacturing PMI flash was 52 (same as May, higher than expected 51, 2 - month high); services PMI flash was 53.1 (lower than previous 53.7, higher than expected 52.9, 2 - month low); composite PMI flash was 52.8 (lower than previous 53, higher than expected 52.1, 2 - month low) [3] Market News - The US claims that new tariffs will be imposed starting in August, and the Houthi rebels attacked merchant ships again [2] - Hamas is consulting on a cease - fire proposal for the Gaza Strip, and the US and Israel had a long - term discussion on the Gaza situation, with Israel agreeing to the necessary conditions for a 60 - day cease - fire agreement [6] - US trade data in May showed that imports and exports both shrank, and the trade deficit widened further. The import of consumer goods decreased by $4 billion, and the export of industrial supplies and raw materials declined significantly, with overall exports down 4% [6] Group 5: Contract Information - On July 4, the closing price of the 2508 main contract was 1849.9, down 1.71%, with a trading volume of 47,800 lots and an open interest of 36,400 lots, an increase of 431 lots from the previous day [4] - The daily trading limit for contracts from 2506 to 2604 has been adjusted to 16% [5] - The company's margin for contracts from 2506 to 2604 has been adjusted to 26% [5] - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2506 to 2604 is 100 lots [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The shipping market, especially the European route, is being closely monitored with details on EC futures contracts, spot prices, and shipping rates. The increasing weekly average shipping capacity from July to August is expected to put significant downward pressure on subsequent freight rates [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs EC Futures Contracts - The closing prices of various EC futures contracts on July 7, 2025, showed declines, with EC2508 at 1849.9 (down 2.48%), EC2510 at 1341.9 (down 1.61%), etc [2] - The volume and open interest of different contracts also varied, with EC2508 having a volume of 47769 and an open interest of 36378 (up 431) [2] - The month - spreads between different contracts, such as EC2508 - 2510 at 508.0, showed changes compared to previous days [2] Spot and Index Data - The spot price on June 30, 2025, was 2123.24, with a 9.61% increase from the previous period [2] - SCFI (European route) on July 4, 2025, was 2101 dollars/TEU, up 3.50% from the previous period [2] - CCFI (European route) on July 4, 2025, was 1694.3, up 3.27% from the previous period [2] Shipping Capacity and Rates - The weekly average shipping capacity in July and August 2025 is 295,000 and 313,000 TEU respectively. The shipping capacity in the third week of July is 320,000 TEU, and the first week of August is 340,000 TEU [2] - The freight rates in the first half of July landed at around 3380 US dollars (equivalent to 2350 points). The shipping company quotes in the second half of July are generally stable, with an average of 3500 US dollars (equivalent to 2500 points) [3] Related News - On July 7, indirect cease - fire negotiations in Gaza restarted in Doha, Qatar. Trump will meet with Netanyahu on Monday to discuss details of the Gaza cease - fire agreement [4]

Group 1: EC Futures Contracts - EC2508 had a closing price of 1896.9 with a 0.71% increase, a volume of 28512, and an open interest of 35947 with a decrease of 388 [2] - EC2510 had a closing price of 1363.9 with a 0.29% decrease, a volume of 8414, and an open interest of 31361 [2] - EC2512 had a closing price of 1538.7 with a 0.70% increase, a volume of 1250, and an open interest of 8 with a decrease of 173 [2] - EC2602 had a closing price of 1338.7 with a 1.02% increase, a volume of 228, and an open interest of 3781 with a decrease of 31 [2] - EC2604 had a closing price of 1172.9 with a 0.11% decrease, a volume of 708, and an open interest of 5782 with an increase of 100 [2] - EC2606 had a closing price of 1319.9 with a 0.76% increase, and an open interest of 371 with an increase of 19 [2] Group 2: Month Spreads - EC2508 - 2510 month spread was 533.0, with a week - on - week increase of 53.9 [2] - EC2510 - 2512 month spread was - 174.8, with a week - on - week decrease of 5.7 [2] - EC2512 - 2602 month spread was 200.0, with a week - on - week increase of 22.2 [2] Group 3: Shipping Freight Indexes - SCHIS updated on Mondays, with a value of 2123.24 on 2025/6/30, a 9.61% increase from the previous period and a 14.11% increase from two periods ago [2] - SCFI (European Line) updated on Fridays, with a value of 2030 USD/TEU on 2025/6/27, a 10.63% increase from the previous period and a 0.49% decrease from two periods ago [2] - CCFI (European Line) updated on Fridays, with a value of 1640.72 on 2025/6/27, a 3.94% increase from the previous period and a 6.03% increase from two periods ago [2] - NCFI updated on Fridays, with a value of 1442.95 on 2025/6/27, a 11.03% increase from the previous period and a 0.64% decrease from two periods ago [2] - TCI updated daily, with a value of 957.21 on 2025/6/30, a 2.14% increase from the previous period and no change from two periods ago [2] Group 4: Capacity Arrangement - The average weekly capacity in July and August 2025 (tentatively) is 299,000 and 305,000 TEU respectively. The first week of July had good cargo receipts but no congestion. The second and fourth weeks had neutral capacity, while the third week had high capacity, which may suppress freight rates. There was one new sailing cancellation in week 33, and PA&MSC had ship delays [2] Group 5: European Line Quotations - Some shipping companies announced price increases in July. MSK opened at 3400 USD, and others were mostly between 3500 - 4000 USD. In the first half of July, some shipping companies cut prices. MSK dropped to 3100 and 2900 USD in the first and second weeks respectively, and the final average price was 3400 USD (equivalent to 2400 points on the disk). In the third week of July, MSK opened at 2900 USD [3] - HPL kept its August quotation at 3640 USD, while CMA announced an increase to 4745 USD [11]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - With geopolitical conflicts, the game in the shipping market is difficult, and it is recommended to participate lightly or wait and see [2][3]. - In the short - term, without an obvious turn in the fundamentals, it is recommended to try shorting on rallies; for the long - term, it is recommended to take profits when contracts rise and wait for the market to stabilize after a correction to determine the subsequent direction [4]. 3. Summary by Content Market News - The US - Vietnam trade agreement may impose a 20% tariff on re - export trade, and all short positions have been recommended to stop losses [2]. - As the July 9 deadline for EU - US trade negotiations approaches, EU member states' negotiation stance towards the US has hardened, demanding the US to cancel or significantly reduce tariffs [5]. - Egypt's foreign minister discussed the diplomatic solution to the Iranian nuclear issue and the resumption of negotiations with relevant parties [6]. Freight Indexes - On June 30, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2123.24 points, up 9.6% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1619.19 points, down 22.3% [2]. - On June 27, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the European route was 1442.95 points, up 11.03% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1553.68 points, down 2.04% [2]. - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) on June 27 showed that the European route price was 2030 USD/TEU, up 10.63% from the previous period; the US - West route was 2578 USD/FEU, down 7.00% [2]. - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) on June 27: the composite index was 1369.34 points, up 2.0% from the previous period; the European route was 1640.72 points, up 3.9%; the US - West route was 1212.09 points, down 3.6% [2]. Economic Data - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in June was 49.4, the service PMI was 50 (a two - month high), and the composite PMI was 50.2 [2]. - The Sentix Investor Confidence Index in the Eurozone in June was 0.2 [2]. - The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than that in May [2]. - The preliminary value of the US Markit manufacturing PMI in June was 52, the service PMI was 53.1, and the composite PMI was 52.8 [2]. Market Conditions - On July 2, the main contract 2508 closed at 1883.5, up 1.67%, with a trading volume of 44,200 lots and an open interest of 36,300 lots, a decrease of 4141 lots from the previous day [3]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: Without an obvious turn in the fundamentals, it is recommended to try shorting on rallies. For the 2508 contract, short positions can be considered for profit - taking when it rebounds above 2000. Risk - takers can try going long on the 2510 contract below 1300, setting stop - loss and take - profit levels [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Due to the volatile international situation, it is recommended to wait and see for now [4]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises and wait for the market to stabilize after a correction to determine the subsequent direction [4]. Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts from 2506 to 2604 has been adjusted to 16% [4]. - The margin for contracts from 2506 to 2604 has been adjusted to 26% [4]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2506 to 2604 is 100 lots [4].

SCFIS(欧线)指数季节性趋势 12000 100000 30 00 405 6000 40 00 2000 0 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 =2023 2021 = 2022 = -2024 · 202'5 EC远期曲线 EC期货合约价格走势 3500 3000 2500 20000 1500 1000 1200 500 1000 2508 2510 2542 2602 2604 理念价格 2506 20 25/5/14 2025 /5/20 20 25/7/1 月间升贴水 EC2508/2510 EC2506/2508 120% 110% 100% 90% 30% 70% Und Brid 2024 (终后后) erage(正第年份) 2024 (终行后) EC2510/2512 EC2506/2510 120% 110% 90% 30% 70% 60% 24 133 3 EC 2506/25 10 2510/25 12 nge(正常年份) 2024 (终行后) rage(正常年份) = 船司线上报价结构 (40GP) 船司线上报 ...

黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | EC2508 | 1,904.9 | 7.80% | 68,840 | 40,476 | 1,248 | 1.70 | | 0.83 | | 期货 | EC2510 | 1,383.8 | 3.28% | 21,666 | 31,506 | 1,385 | 0.69 | | 0.33 | | | EC2512 | 1,538.0 | 2.67% | 3,471 | 6,186 | 359 | 0.56 | | 0.28 | | | | | 本期 | | 2025/6/30 | 单位 | | 周涨幅 | | | | SCFIS： 欧洲航线 | | 2, ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given documents 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of geopolitical conflicts, the game in the shipping and related markets is difficult. It is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [1][2] - With no significant change in overall supply - demand, the market sentiment is bearish, and the market fluctuates widely. Attention should be paid to negotiation results, tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [2] 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Shipping Freight Index - On June 30, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2123.24 points, up 9.6% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1619.19 points, down 22.3% from the previous period [1] - On June 27, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1366.47 points, down 1.13% from the previous period; the European route was 1442.95 points, up 11.03% from the previous period; the US - West route was 1553.68 points, down 2.04% from the previous period [1] - On June 27, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1861.51 points, down 8.08 points from the previous period; the European line price was 2030 USD/TEU, up 10.63% from the previous period; the US - West route was 2578 USD/FEU, down 7.00% from the previous period [1] - On June 27, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1369.34 points, up 2.0% from the previous period; the European route was 1640.72 points, up 3.9% from the previous period; the US - West route was 1212.09 points, down 3.6% from the previous period [1] 3.2 Market and Contract Information - On June 30, the closing price of the 2508 main contract was 1761.4, with a decline of 1.92%, a trading volume of 32,700 lots, and an open interest of 39,200 lots, an increase of 168 lots from the previous day [2] - The SCFIS has been rising continuously, but the overall supply - demand has not changed significantly, and the market is bearish with wide - range fluctuations [2] 3.3 Strategy Recommendations - **Short - term Strategy**: Without an obvious fundamental turnaround, it is recommended to try short positions on rallies. For the 2508 contract, it is recommended to try short positions lightly when it rebounds above 2000 (with a profit margin of more than 200 points), and consider taking profits on short positions. Risk - takers can consider lightly trying long positions on the 2510 contract below 1300, setting stop - losses and take - profits [3] - **Arbitrage Strategy**: In the context of international turmoil and large fluctuations, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for now [3] - **Long - term Strategy**: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rallies, wait for the correction to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [3] 3.4 Other Information - Trump said he would not extend the 90 - day tariff suspension period for most countries and regions after July 9. Once the negotiation deadline expires, trade punishment measures will take effect unless an agreement is reached [4] - The Israeli Defense Forces informed the domestic political leadership that they tend to reach an agreement with Hamas rather than occupy the Gaza Strip [4]

| | 示句女朋员 YONGAN FUT | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 集运早报 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 2025/6/27 | | | | | જ્હે | | 昨日收盘价 | 3 (%) | 是美 | 昨日成交量 | 昨日持仓量 | | 持合变动 | | 0.03 1.13 | EC2506 EC2508 | | 1885.9 1759 9 | | 51.2 177.2 | 783 38516 | 2275 41485 | | -216 -2043 | | 2.54 | EC2510 | | 1325.6 | | 611.5 | 14964 | 30795 | | -751 | | 3.72 | EC2512 | | 1489 1 | | 448.0 | 4647 | 6930 | | -387 | | 3.27 | EC2602 | | 1317.4 | | 619.7 | 1696 | 3887 | | ...

Group 1: EC Futures Contract Information - EC2506 had a closing price of 1885.3 with a change of -0.15, a trading volume of 1178, an open interest change of -285, and a percentage change of 51.8 [2] - EC2508 had a closing price of 1740.2 with a change of 196.9, a trading volume of 50789, an open interest change of -1263, and a percentage change of -1.79 [2] - EC2510 had a closing price of 1292.8 with a change of -0.90, a trading volume of 644.3, an open interest change of 31546, and a percentage change of -75 [2] - EC2512 had a closing price of 1435.7 with a change of -1.50, a trading volume of 3222, an open interest change of 300, and a percentage change of 501.4 [2] - EC2602 had a closing price of 1275.7 with a change of -2.36, a trading volume of 661.4, and an open interest change of 3916 [2] - EC2604 had a closing price of 2276 with a change of 449, a trading volume of 1132.0, an open interest change of 2550, and a percentage change of -1.65 [2] Group 2: Month - to - Month Spread Information - The spread between EC2506 - 2508 was 145.1, with previous spreads of 29.0 and 275.8, and a weekly opening of 116.1 [2] - The spread between EC2508 - 2510 was -20.0, with previous spreads of -168.7 and 447.4, and a weekly opening of 467.4 [2] - The spread between EC2506 - 2510 was 592.5, with previous spreads of 583.5 and 513.0 [2] - The spread between EC2510 - 2512 was -142.9, with previous spreads of -152.9 and 10.0 [2] - The spread between EC2512 - 2602 was 160.0, with previous spreads of 150.9 and 158.0 [2] Group 3: Shipping Index Information - SCEIS was 1937.14 with a previous value of 1697.63, a percentage change of 14.11%, and was updated on 2025/6/23 [2] - SCFI was 1835 $/TEU with a previous value of 1844, a percentage change of -10.62%, and was updated on 2025/6/20 [2] - CCFI was 1578.6 with previous values of 1488.87 and 1397.02, percentage changes of 6.03% and 6.57%, and was updated on 2025/6/20 [2] - NCFI was 1299.58 with a previous value of 1307.92, a percentage change of -0.64%, and was updated on 2025/6/20 [2] - TCI was 937.12 with a previous value of 962.14, a percentage change of -1.40%, and was updated on 2025/6/25 [2] Group 4: Capacity Arrangement - In July and August 2025, the average weekly capacity was 29.3 and 30.4 million TEU respectively. The OA Alliance's FAL7 route added a new service in week 28. The supply pressure was neutral in the first week of July, low in the third week, and high in the second and fourth weeks [2] Group 5: Recent European Line Quotation - For July, MSK initially opened at 3400 USD, then dropped to 3100 USD. Other carriers were mostly between 3500 - 4000 USD and then around 3500 USD. The average in the first week was 3400 USD, equivalent to 2400 points on the futures [3] - In the second week, MSK opened at 2900 USD, and the average among carriers was 3400 USD, equivalent to 2400 points on the futures. On 6/25, HPL lowered its rate from 3400 to 3200 USD [3] Group 6: News - On 6/26, the US Defense Intelligence Agency stated that its assessment of the Iranian nuclear facilities being attacked by the US military was preliminary and of low credibility. It was collaborating with other agencies to investigate the leak of the assessment [3] - On 6/26, Trump said that the US would talk with Iran next week. He believed the war between Iran and Israel was over, but would not lift sanctions on Iran. He also thought the conflict might break out again [3] - The UK Central Intelligence Agency claimed that several key Iranian nuclear facilities had been destroyed [3]