一、基本面 制造业低迷：6月制造业PMI显示制造业依然低迷，关税政策的不确定性导致供应链瓶颈，工厂等待原材料时间延长，企业对长期采购决策持谨慎态度。 黄金周二（7月2日）早盘开盘后就一路慢涨，欧盘延续上涨，到美盘初最高上涨至3358附近，美盘震荡下探3337/3336附近，日线收出一根阳线。 1、特朗普减税议案通过：7月1日，美国参议院通过特朗普"大而美"减税与支出议案，该议案预计将在未来十年内导致财政赤字增加3万亿美元。这会刺激通 胀压力，加重美国债务负担，而黄金作为传统避险资产，在这种情况下吸引了更多投资者关注，推动价格上涨。 2、贸易政策不确定性：美国财政部长贝森特警告称，随着7月9日贸易关税暂停期限临近，各国可能面临大幅提高的关税税率。特朗普对日本等国可能征收 更高关税的表态，加剧了市场对全球贸易环境的紧张情绪，进一步推动金价上涨。 3、美国经济数据复杂： 职位空缺增加：美国5月职位空缺意外增加37.4万个，达到776.9万个，超出市场预期。 支撑位上，关注3315-3310区域支撑，这里是5日均线和60日均线目前位置，金价转强站上均线上方，回落关注均线支撑情况。 劳动力市场动能减弱：5月裁员人数减少 ...

Group 1 - The recent surge in gold prices is driven by geopolitical tensions, heightened risk aversion, and ongoing central bank purchases of gold [1][3] - Germany and Italy are considering repatriating their gold reserves stored in the US, which are valued at over $245 billion, due to concerns over the safety of overseas gold storage amid rising geopolitical risks [1] - The European Taxpayers Association has urged German and Italian policymakers to reassess their reliance on the Federal Reserve as a gold custodian [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's latest economic projections indicate a median expectation of two interest rate cuts by 2025, with significant divergence among officials regarding the potential range of cuts [2] - Fed officials Waller and Bowman have publicly indicated that they do not rule out the possibility of a rate cut in July, intensifying market speculation about a policy shift [2] - Despite current uncertainties, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to factors such as geopolitical issues, trade protectionism, and inflationary pressures [3]

股指期货将偏强震荡 黄金、白银、原油期货将偏弱震荡 工业硅、多晶硅、碳酸锂期货将震荡偏强 螺纹钢、铁矿 石、焦煤、玻璃、纯碱、PTA、PVC、豆粕期货将偏强震荡 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 2025 年 6 月 30 日 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货将偏强震荡：IF2509 阻力位 3904 和 3931 点，支撑位 3872 和 3852 点；IH2509 阻力位 2703 和 2728 点，支撑位 2667 和 2653 点；IC2509 阻力位 5810 和 5838 点，支撑位 ...

Group 1: Gold as a Valuable Asset - Gold is a precious metal with excellent corrosion resistance and rarity, making it highly valued by individuals and nations [1] - Gold effectively hedges against inflation, maintaining or increasing its value when currency purchasing power declines [3] - The global gold market is characterized by high transparency and difficulty in manipulation compared to other markets like stocks and real estate [3] Group 2: Global Gold Supply and Demand - The total known gold reserves globally are approximately 137,400 tons, with an annual demand of about 4,200 tons, highlighting its scarcity [5] - The gold mining industry is challenging and requires advanced technology, yet some individuals have successfully found gold using simple detection devices [6][8] Group 3: Historical and Cultural Significance of Gold Mining - The Klondike River in Canada became a significant gold mining area in the late 19th century, attracting thousands of prospectors [8][11] - In China, gold mining is strictly regulated, with historical military involvement in gold exploration, contrasting with more open mining practices in other countries [13] Group 4: Tourism and Economic Impact of Gold Mining - The Five Elements Gold Town in Shandong, China, offers a unique gold panning experience for tourists, significantly boosting local economic development [13][16] - The town features cultural facilities that recreate the historical context of gold mining, enhancing the tourist experience [18]

以色列和伊朗宣布停火的消息，无疑是近期地缘政治局势中的重大转折点。此前，中东地区的紧张局势一 直是推动黄金价格上涨的重要因素之一。投资者在不确定性面前，往往将黄金视为避险资产的首选，从而 推动金价上升。然而，停火协议的达成，使得市场对地缘政治风险的担忧大幅缓解，投资者的风险偏好也 随之上升。他们开始将资金从黄金等避险资产中撤出，转而投向风险资产，如股票和部分大宗商品。这种 资金流向的变化，直接导致了黄金价格的下跌。 美联储观望态度：降息预期的降温 与此同时，美联储主席鲍威尔在周二国会听证会上的表态，也为黄金市场带来了新的变数。鲍威尔指出， 美联储需要更多时间来观察关税上调是否会推高通胀，然后才会考虑降息。这一表态暗示了美联储在短期 内可能不会急于采取降息行动，这与市场此前对降息的强烈预期形成了鲜明对比。 降息预期一直是支撑黄金价格的重要因素之一。较低的利率环境通常会降低持有黄金的机会成本，从而提 升黄金的吸引力。然而，鲍威尔的言论让市场意识到，降息并非板上钉钉，美联储可能会根据更多经济数 据和通胀表现来调整政策。这种不确定性使得投资者对黄金的持有意愿有所下降，进而加剧了金价的下 跌。 6月25日，现货黄金价格 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-6-24 多空要素交织，⾦价震荡 美国美联储审慎、地缘风险升温、经济数据超预期，多空要素交织， 金价震荡。 重点资讯： 1）美国6月标普全球制造业PMI初值 52，预期51，前值52；美国 6月标普全球服务业PMI初值 53.1，预期52.9，前值53.7。 2）美国5月成屋销售总数年化 403万户，预期397万户，前值400 万户。 3）俄罗斯总统普京周五表示，他认为整个乌克兰"都是我们 的"，并警告说推进中的俄军可能会占领乌克兰的苏梅市，以期 在边境开辟缓冲区。 价格逻辑： 美国本周末针对伊朗关键核设施发动了代号"午夜铁锤"的协调军事 打击，特朗普宣称行动成功。尽管此次地缘政治紧张局势显著升级， 且伊朗立即予以谴责并威胁报复（伊朗议会特别批准了关闭重要石油 咽喉要道霍尔木兹海峡的动议），但黄金价格回落，交投于3,370美 元附近并伴有轻微日内跌幅。伊朗威胁可能关闭霍尔木兹海峡，加剧 了人们对全球能源供应中断的担忧，推高了通胀风险。尽管这种地缘 政治不确定性增强了黄金的避险吸引力，但金价仍难以突破关键阻力 位3,400美 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent rebound of the US dollar and its impact on gold prices, questioning why gold is no longer seen as a safe haven asset [1] Group 1 - Gold has experienced a high-level correction and is currently in a consolidation phase [1] - The escalating situation in the Middle East raises questions about the potential for gold to rise again [1]

周一（6月23日）亚市盘中，国际黄金小幅下探，截至发稿报3362.37美元/盎司，跌幅0.16%，今日金价开盘于3367.49美元/盎司，最高上探 3387.79美元/盎司，最低触及3351.69美元/盎司。 从日K级别来看，上周开盘3452算是一个短期见顶了，一周的跌势证明黄金的避险只是短期影响，虽然美联储鹰转鸽，周五也以一根阴十字 K收盘，黄金今日高开走低回补缺口，最低3350止跌反弹，截止发文与3362附近震荡交投。周评内容主要是看金价震荡，虽然消息面有影 响，但是多空都有缘由，故给出的策略还是看金价震荡运行。上方3378的空单看58有效，下方50多单看69目前最高给到65缺乏延续。 现在盘面上看，3378周评的压制还是继续作关注，下方支撑依然关注3350早盘回落的位置，只不过高开回落后需要关注延续度。接下来的操 作思路建议是上方触及3368附近去布空，保护3375位置，看下方3350早盘低点破位去到3340的位置； 没有不成功的投资，只有不成功的操作，秦氏金升浸染金融行业十余载，有丰富的实战操盘经验和独特的交易理念，我们拥有全球稳健的交 易系统在这里，对黄金、原油、等投资领域研究多年，具有扎实的理论基 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, have heightened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, while the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates has added to market uncertainty [1][2][4]. Geopolitical Tensions - The U.S. confirmed successful strikes on three Iranian nuclear sites, escalating concerns over regional stability and prompting fears of further conflict [2]. - Iranian officials have threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route, in response to U.S. actions, indicating potential for increased military engagement [2]. Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices experienced a decline of $64.95 or 1.89% last week, closing at $3468.52 per ounce, following a brief surge due to geopolitical tensions [1]. - Despite the recent drop, the demand for gold is expected to rise as investors seek refuge amid escalating geopolitical risks [3]. Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate, with 7 out of 19 officials suggesting no rate cuts are advisable this year, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without a change [4][5]. - The Fed's latest dot plot indicates a median federal funds rate of 3.9% for 2025, suggesting potential for future rate cuts depending on economic conditions [4]. Market Sentiment and Expectations - Market expectations for a rate cut by the end of the year hover around 50 basis points, with any hawkish comments from Fed officials likely to impact the dollar and interest rate outlook [6]. - Investors are closely monitoring upcoming testimonies from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell for insights into future monetary policy [5]. Gold Holdings and Investment Trends - Central banks are expected to increase their gold reserves, with 95% of surveyed banks anticipating growth in their holdings over the next 12 months [7]. - The SPDR Gold Trust, the largest gold ETF, saw an increase in holdings by 9.75 tons, reaching a total of 950.24 tons, marking the fifth consecutive week of accumulation [7]. Technical Analysis - Gold prices are currently in a bullish trend, with key resistance levels identified between $3400-$3424 and $3450-$3500 per ounce, while support levels are noted at $3372-$3360 and $3315-$3300 per ounce [7]. Domestic Market Insights - In the domestic market, gold futures have shown resilience, with key support at 775 CNY per gram and resistance levels identified between 790-795 CNY per gram [8].

止损，永远是对的，错了也对！ 死扛，永远是错的，对了也错！ 横批：止损无条件！ 如果没有交易原则，那么，一切技术等于零！ 黄金，原油果真高开，但对多头不好的消息是，高开后上演了大跌，黄金缺口完全回补，且破了周五尾盘低点，目前最低触及周五多头突破口3355-60区 间！ 原油，白银，美股期货，美元和沪金银及融通金参考周末分析！！！ 上述个人观点，仅供参考！ 周末分析，我们强调黄金必定高开，原油也是高开，只是幅度大小罢了。但是，黄金高开3400不是还要跌，只有上去3400才是强势。目前来看，黄金高开 3385最高3398.5下跌，符合我们预期，只是时间太早，无法执行做空策略，错过空单利润，如果有参考周末思路做空黄金的，30美元以上的利润轻松到手。 美国空袭伊朗，全球金融市场大地震；黄金避险回归，多头能否一飞冲天？ 当前，黄金触及突破口短线止跌，我们关注反弹，低多也参与了，能反弹到哪里，要看多头的力度和消息指引。伊朗太怂，黄金多头都看不起他！接下来， 日内两档关键压力，第一3370-75是日内强弱分水岭，然后3380-85区域压力，多空分水岭3400关口，突破走多头！早盘下跌测试5周均线和20日均线3350区 域， ...