Core Viewpoint - The RMB to USD exchange rate exhibited a subtle balance on August 19, 2025, reflecting the maturity of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism and the rationalization of market participants' expectations [2]. Market Performance: Subtle Differences Between Onshore and Offshore - The onshore RMB (CNY) market experienced slight fluctuations, with a low of 7.1870 and a closing rate of 7.1854, alongside a significant trading volume of 34.061 billion USD, indicating high market attention [3]. - The offshore RMB (CNH) showed a stronger performance, peaking at 7.1791 and closing at 7.1875, with a narrowing spread of only 3.2 basis points between onshore and offshore rates, reflecting balanced cross-border capital flows and increasing recognition of the RMB exchange rate mechanism [3]. Subtle Adjustments in the Central Parity Rate: Reflection of Policy Intent - The central parity rate for the RMB against the USD was set at 7.1359, down 37 basis points from the previous trading day, indicating a policy intention to allow moderate depreciation of the RMB amidst a strong USD index [5]. - The adjustment strategy of alternating between increases and decreases in the central parity rate aims to enhance exchange rate flexibility and prevent excessive volatility that could impact the real economy [5]. External Pressures and Internal Support: Interwoven Factors - The strong USD index is primarily influenced by expectations of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, which is expected to maintain high interest rates, putting pressure on non-USD currencies, including the RMB [6]. - However, the robust fundamentals of the Chinese economy, including recovering industrial production and consumption, provide internal support for the RMB exchange rate [6]. Future Outlook and Risk Management - In the short term, the RMB to USD exchange rate is likely to maintain a two-way fluctuation pattern, with the strong USD exerting pressure while the Chinese economic fundamentals and policy intentions limit depreciation [7]. - In the medium term, a clearer path for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and continued recovery of the Chinese economy may lead to a strengthening of the RMB [7]. - Long-term factors such as the internationalization of the RMB and its increasing weight in the SDR will provide solid support for the exchange rate [7]. Summary: Steady Progress, Promising Future - Overall, the RMB to USD exchange rate on August 19, 2025, demonstrated characteristics of "central parity micro-adjustment and narrow market fluctuations," indicating a mature exchange rate formation mechanism and rational market expectations [8].

来源：滚动播报 周三（8月20日）纽约尾盘，ICE美元指数下跌0.05%，报98.219点，北京时间10:47涨至98.441点刷新日 高，随后持续震荡下行，02:00美联储发布偏鹰派的会议纪要之前一分钟刷新日低至98.079点。彭博美 元指数跌0.05%，报1206.41点，全天持续震荡下行，整体交投区间为1208.95-1205.36点。 ...

格隆汇8月20日｜美元指数DXY短线走低12点，此次特朗普称美联储理事库克必须辞职。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term market sentiment for precious metals is cautious, but long - term factors support the gold price. Copper prices may continue to fluctuate, and the support level has been raised. Aluminum prices may experience a callback, while alumina prices are expected to be weak in the short term. Zinc prices are expected to be volatile in the short term, and a sell - outside - buy - inside strategy can be considered. Nickel - related products show different trends, and tin prices may continue to fluctuate. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to have a wide - range shock, and the industrial silicon market is affected by relevant policies [3][17][36][62][75][89][105][116]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Sentiment and Fundamentals**: The spot price of gold is at a discount of 4.18 yuan/gram to the futures price, indicating cautious short - term market sentiment. The net profit of Laopu Gold in the first half of the year increased by 285.8% year - on - year, showing demand resilience. The SPDR Gold ETF decreased by 3.2 tons to 962.2 tons [3]. - **Macro Factors**: The market focuses on the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting and the speeches of Fed officials. Trump's appointment of an interim director pressures the independence of monetary policy, and the market expects an 86.1% probability of a rate cut in September, which supports the gold price in the long term [3]. Copper - **Price Outlook**: In the short term, copper prices may continue to fluctuate, and the previous support level of 77,000 yuan per ton can be raised to 78,000 yuan per ton. The Fed's meeting minutes and Powell's speech may have limited impact on copper prices, while the strong support of the US dollar index exerts pressure on the valuation of non - ferrous metals [17]. - **Market Data**: The latest price of SHFE copper futures main contract is 78,640 yuan/ton, down 0.32%. The spot prices of various regions also showed a decline, and the inventory of SHFE copper and LME copper decreased to varying degrees [18][21][34]. Aluminum - **Aluminum**: The expansion of the US tariff scope on aluminum has a certain impact on China's exports, and the price may experience a callback. Considering the peak season in September and the rate - cut expectation, the decline is likely to be a correction rather than a reversal [36]. - **Alumina**: The fundamentals of alumina are weak, with an oversupply situation expected in the second half of the year. The spot price is continuously falling, and the futures price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, with the cost of imported ore from Guinea as a support level [36]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The price of scrap aluminum remains high, and the supply of scrap aluminum may decrease in the future, providing strong support for the price of aluminum alloy. The demand is currently good, and the futures price generally follows the trend of SHFE aluminum, with a price difference of 350 - 500 yuan/ton [37]. Zinc - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of zinc is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, with strong processing fees. The demand is weak during the traditional off - season. LME inventories are falling, with a certain risk of short - squeeze, but the support is weak [62]. - **Trading Strategy**: Considering the pattern of strong external and weak internal zinc prices, a sell - outside - buy - inside strategy can be considered. In the short term, the price is expected to be volatile [62]. Nickel - **Market Conditions**: Nickel ore is relatively stable, with high domestic arrival inventories. Nickel iron is relatively firm in the short term, and stainless steel shows a weak trend. Sulfuric acid nickel has certain price - support sentiment, and the MHP market is in short supply [75]. - **Macro Factors**: The strengthening of the US dollar index at the beginning of the week suppresses the market, but the expectation of a rate cut in September is still strong [75]. Tin - **Price Outlook**: The repeated postponement of the full resumption of production in Myanmar's tin mines has supported the tin price, and in the short term, the price may continue to fluctuate [89]. - **Market Data**: The latest price of SHFE tin futures main contract is 267,840 yuan/ton, down 0.09%. The inventories of SHFE tin and LME tin decreased [90][100]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Situation**: The market is over - hyped, and there is a sign of inventory reduction in the upstream and inventory replenishment in the downstream. The futures market is dominated by sentiment, and the price is expected to have a wide - range shock [105]. - **Price Data**: The price of lithium carbonate futures shows different changes, and the spot prices of various lithium products also have corresponding fluctuations [106][110]. Industrial Silicon - **Policy Impact**: The joint meeting of multiple departments to regulate the photovoltaic industry may have an impact on the industrial silicon market [116]. - **Market Data**: The prices of industrial silicon in various regions decreased, and the futures price also declined. The prices of related products such as polysilicon, silicon wafers, and battery cells also showed different trends [117][125][126].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Gold main contract fluctuated during the session, while the Shanghai Silver contract weakened significantly. The US Department of Commerce's tariff - increasing policy has caused the precious metals market to experience a correction due to the spill - over effect of steel and aluminum tariffs. However, the tariffs have no substantial impact on silver, and the probability of silver being additionally taxed is extremely low. The current correction may be mainly driven by market sentiment. The S&P's confirmation of the US sovereign credit rating has supported the US dollar, and the dollar index has continued its rebound from a low level. The market is currently focusing on the cease - fire expectation between Russia and Ukraine and the expected trading around the Fed's interest - rate cuts at the Jackson Hole meeting on Friday. If Fed Chairman Powell further releases hawkish signals, the dollar index and US Treasury yields may continue to rebound, putting pressure on the upward movement of gold prices. In the short term, if there is no significant progress in the geopolitical situation, the precious metals market is expected to continue to trade within a range, and mid - term interest - rate cuts provide strong support for the bottom of gold prices. The negotiation between Russia and the US may affect the gold price. If the negotiation makes substantial progress, it may further relieve the downward pressure on the gold price; if it fails to meet expectations, it may increase the demand for safe - haven buying. It is recommended to maintain a wait - and - see attitude towards gold in the short term, and pay attention to short - term rebound trading opportunities for silver as it approaches the oversold range. The recommended trading range for the Shanghai Gold 2510 contract is 770 - 800 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai Silver 2510 contract is 9000 - 9100 yuan/kilogram [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 772.68 yuan/gram, down 2.38 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 9042 yuan/kilogram, down 145 yuan [2]. - **Positions**: The main - contract positions of Shanghai Gold were 191,474 lots, up 39 lots; the main - contract positions of Shanghai Silver were 318,678 lots, down 23,822 lots. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Gold main contract were 160,754 lots, down 1365 lots; the net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Silver main contract were 114,342 lots, down 5142 lots [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse - receipt quantity of gold was 36,582 kilograms, up 249 kilograms; the warehouse - receipt quantity of silver was 1,140,199 kilograms, down 9247 kilograms [2]. 3.2现货市场 - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network's gold spot price was 768.7 yuan/gram, down 4.2 yuan, and the basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract was - 3.98 yuan/gram. The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network's silver spot price was 9026 yuan/kilogram, down 128 yuan, and the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract was - 16 yuan/kilogram, down 17 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - **ETF Holdings**: The gold ETF holdings were 962.21 tons, down 3.15 tons; the silver ETF holdings were 15,339.66 tons, down 16.94 tons [2]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions**: The gold CFTC non - commercial net positions were 229,485 contracts, down 7565 contracts; the silver CFTC non - commercial net positions were 44,268 contracts, down 6390 contracts [2]. - **Supply and Demand Volumes**: The total quarterly supply and demand of gold were both 1313.01 tons, with an increase of 54.84 tons in supply and 54.83 tons in demand. The annual total supply of silver was 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces, and the annual global total demand for silver was 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2]. 3.4 Option Market - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 10.17%, down 0.53%; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold was 10.6%, up 0.12% [2]. - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for gold was 17.36%, up 0.33% [2]. 3.5 Industry News - The US Department of Commerce added 407 product categories to the steel and aluminum tariff list, with a 50% tax rate. The new list covers a wide range of products, including wind turbines and their components, mobile cranes, railway vehicles, furniture, compressors, and pump equipment [2]. - US President Trump said the US would help Ukraine defend but would not send ground troops, and reiterated that Ukraine would not be allowed to join NATO [2]. - The US and Japan plan to conduct in - depth consultations on implementing a $550 billion investment in the US. The investment involves important fields such as semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, steel, and shipbuilding, and a mechanism to verify national interests will be established [2]. - S&P confirmed the US "AA+/A - 1+" sovereign credit rating with a stable outlook, reflecting the expected continuous resilience of the US economy [2]. - The European Central Bank President Lagarde said the trade agreement between the US and the EU was slightly higher than expected but far from the severe scenario of US tariffs exceeding 20% [2].

新华财经北京8月20日电（马萌伟）继18日脱离逾两周低位后，19日，美元指数再次脱离逾两周低位， 且盘中一度转跌。境内外人民币持稳，延续近期窄幅波动，隐含波动率降至2024年3月以来的最低水 平。 中信证券首席经济学家明明认为，后续美元指数的变化以及国内政策或成为人民币汇率的重要影响因 素。若美联储如期降息，美元指数或因此走弱，对于我国证券账户的资本流入有望形成一定利好。央行 稳汇率政策张弛有度，将为人民币汇率的韧性提供有力支撑。 在岸人民币兑美元基本持平于7.1830，连续六个交易日波幅不到0.1%；离岸人民币兑美元持平于 7.1880，连续第五个交易日波幅不到0.1%；离岸人民币兑美元1个月隐含波动率跌至2.77%，创2024年3 月以来的最低水平。 中银证券全球首席经济学家管涛表示，人民币兑美元存在进一步升值突破7元的可能性。推动人民币走 升的情形包括美国经济疲软、美联储减息以及市场对美元信心普遍下降（美元信誉受损）。另外，还有 一种可能推升人民币的情形，就是中美能够像美国总统特朗普第一个任期那样达成一个第二阶段经贸协 议，这可能提升市场信心。 具体数据显示，美元指数围绕98关口来回震荡，最终收涨0.1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are primarily driven by expectations surrounding Federal Reserve policies, a strong US dollar, and easing geopolitical tensions, leading to a cautious market sentiment [3][4][5][6][7]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Expectations - Market sentiment is heavily influenced by the upcoming speech from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, with expectations of a potential rate cut in September [3]. - Concerns arise from Powell possibly signaling a "neutral hawkish" stance, emphasizing inflation resilience and policy flexibility, which could dampen overly optimistic easing expectations [3]. - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding the rate cut path further exacerbate market uncertainty, impacting gold's attractiveness [3][4]. Group 2: Strength of the US Dollar - The US dollar index closed at 98.2, reflecting a strong dollar that inversely affects gold prices, as a stronger dollar increases the cost of gold for holders of other currencies [4]. - Positive economic indicators, such as a 0.5% month-on-month increase in US retail sales for July, contribute to the dollar's strength and subsequently suppress gold's rebound potential [4]. Group 3: Geopolitical Risk Easing - A recent summit between US and Russian leaders has alleviated some concerns regarding escalating geopolitical conflicts, reducing the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [5]. - Decreased attention to Middle Eastern tensions and a decline in oil prices due to OPEC+ production expectations further diminish gold's appeal as a crisis hedge [5]. Group 4: Economic Data Contradictions - Mixed economic data, including a weak non-farm payroll increase of 73,000 in July and a core CPI rise of 3.1%, creates a divided market sentiment regarding Federal Reserve policy [6]. - The youth unemployment rate rising to 17.8% raises concerns about consumer demand, although inflation resilience partially offsets these worries [6]. Group 5: Long-term Structural Factors - Despite short-term pressures, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive, with UBS raising its 2026 gold price target to $3,600 due to ongoing macroeconomic risks and strong investment demand [7]. - The recent price drop is viewed as a result of short-term sentiment fluctuations, with market participants opting to take profits or hedge against potential downturns [7].

故此，重点关注鲍威尔的言论，如美联储的鹰派倾向强化，对9月降息的承诺不够明确，将进一步推升 美元，从而加剧黄金的短期压力；反之，若鲍威尔确认降息路径，黄金或迎来反弹。 今日周三，黄金开盘延续昨日回落压力表现偏弱，美元指数近日震荡上行，对其产生利空压力，以及本 周俄乌美等会谈良好，减弱的避险需求，再加上上周通胀数据的上升，部分美联储官员反驳9月大幅降 息，市场又对本周鲍威尔的讲话偏向鹰派，则继续令金价备受压力。 日图；金价近日连续回落走低，持续运行在中轨及60日等均线下方，空头占据优势，那么在重回中轨等 均线上方持稳之前，继续保持震荡偏弱行情对待，不过，下方触及100日均线支撑附近，ZZ指标也显示 回落触底，暗示下方空间有限，100日均线支撑附近或布林带下轨附近支撑，可先行尝试看涨。上方则 关注5日均线压力及中轨线压力可看空回落。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in the onshore and offshore RMB against the USD, highlighting the impact of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy on the dollar's future trajectory [1]. Currency Exchange Rates - On August 20, the onshore RMB opened slightly lower at 7.1865 against the USD, compared to the previous day's closing rate of 7.1820 [1]. - As of 9:30 AM, the offshore RMB was quoted at 7.19168 against the USD [1]. - The RMB's central parity rate against the USD was set at 7.1384, which is a decrease of 25 basis points from the previous trading day [1]. Dollar Index - The USD index was fluctuating above the 98 mark, reported at 98.3926 as of 9:30 AM [1]. Future Outlook - HSBC China indicated that the future movement of the USD will largely depend on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance and the potential candidates for the next chairperson [1]. - With the Federal Reserve resuming interest rate cuts, cyclical factors may become more dominant in influencing the dollar's performance [1].

故此，重点关注鲍威尔的言论，如美联储的鹰派倾向强化，对9月降息的承诺不够明确，将进一步推升美元，从而加剧黄金的短期压力；反之，若鲍威尔 确认降息路径，黄金或迎来反弹。 不过，当下整体走势依然还是就近几个月的震荡区间利的阶段性行情而言，未来1年左右方向和前景上，个人暂时仍还是偏向看涨上行； 一方面，目前，关税协议达成的压力已然出尽，并且特朗普表示未来两周将确定钢铁和芯片关税，半导体关税有可能高达300%；并扩大对钢铝进口征收 50%关税的范围，将数百种衍生产品纳入清单。这将再度提振金价； 张尧浠：鹰派预期施压金价走低、震荡调整后仍待上攀升 上交易日周二(8月19日)：国际黄金开于3333.21美元/盎司，整体先涨后跌，日内先行震荡上行，于欧盘18点时段一度涨至3345.31美元日高点，随后遇阻回 落持续下跌，延续至美盘尾触及日内低点3314.89美元，之后止跌窄幅盘整，收于3315.54美元，日振幅30.42美元，收跌17.67美元，跌幅0.53%。 影响上，市场对俄乌冲突持谨慎乐观态度，继续减弱金价避险需求，以及投资者屏息以待的美联储主席鲍威尔本周晚些时候在杰克逊霍尔的讲话，考虑到 7月生产者物价指数（PPI ...