每经AI快讯，10月17日，美元指数（DXY）跌至11日低点98.030。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trade situation remains volatile, and the weakening of the US dollar index has led to new highs in precious metal prices. The supply - demand relationship of copper provides strong support for prices, and short - term price declines may be limited. Aluminum prices are expected to continue to oscillate strongly. Short - term trends of lead, zinc, tin, nickel, lithium carbonate, alumina, stainless steel, and cast aluminum alloy are also analyzed, with corresponding price ranges provided [2][3][6]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Information**: Trade situation is volatile, the US dollar index is weak, and copper prices oscillate upwards. LME copper inventory decreases, domestic electrolytic copper social inventory and bonded area inventory increase slightly, and the spot import loss narrows. The refined - scrap price difference narrows [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Overseas copper mine production cuts and reduced domestic refined copper output tighten supply expectations, and short - term price declines may be limited. The reference operating range for the Shanghai copper main contract is 84,500 - 86,000 yuan/ton, and for the LME copper 3M contract is 10,500 - 10,750 US dollars/ton [3]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Domestic inventory decreases, and the US may introduce an automobile tariff grace period. Aluminum prices are strongly trending. LME aluminum inventory decreases, and domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories decline [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With the increase in the domestic aluminum - water ratio, seasonal consumption recovery, and strong exports, the pressure of aluminum ingot inventory accumulation is small, and prices may continue to oscillate strongly. The reference operating range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 20,900 - 21,200 yuan/ton, and for the LME aluminum 3M contract is 2,750 - 2,820 US dollars/ton [6]. Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index closes slightly lower. LME lead price declines, and domestic social inventory remains unchanged. The refined - scrap price difference is 75 yuan/ton [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The apparent lead ore inventory rises slightly, and the production of primary lead smelting remains high. The waste lead inventory declines, and the production of secondary lead smelting is at a low level. The lead ingot factory inventory accumulates. The short - term Shanghai lead is expected to be strong [9]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index closes slightly lower, and the LME zinc price rises. Domestic social inventory accumulates slightly, and the zinc ingot export window opens [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Domestic zinc smelting enterprises operate normally during holidays, and most downstream enterprises maintain normal production. The LME registered zinc warehouse receipts are at a low level, and there is still a structural risk. Short - term Shanghai zinc is expected to oscillate at a low level with increased volatility [11]. Tin - **Market Information**: The Shanghai tin main contract price declines slightly. The import of tin ore is at a low level due to slow resumption of production in Myanmar and Indonesia's crackdown on illegal mining. The smelting enterprise operating rate is low, and downstream demand is mixed. The consumption margin improves during the peak season, but high prices still suppress consumption [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - term supply and demand are in a tight balance, and with the recovery of peak - season demand, tin prices may oscillate at a high level. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract is 270,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is 34,000 - 36,000 US dollars/ton [14]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices oscillate. Spot market transactions are average, and brand premiums rise slightly. Nickel ore prices are stable, nickel - iron prices are weak, and MHP coefficient prices are high [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - term trade frictions may reduce market risk appetite, but the impact on nickel prices is relatively small. In the short term, weak nickel - iron prices and high refined nickel inventory pressure may drag down nickel prices, but in the long term, there are supporting factors. It is recommended to wait and see, and consider buying on dips if the price drops significantly. The reference operating range for the short - term Shanghai nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and for the LME nickel 3M contract is 14,500 - 16,500 US dollars/ton [16][17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The spot index of lithium carbonate rises, and the futures contract price also increases. The market's available spot is tight, and the premium strengthens [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Social inventory and exchange warehouse receipts continue to decline. If consumption remains strong and resonates with the macro - environment, lithium prices may break through the upper limit. Short - term strong oscillation is more likely. The reference operating range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2601 contract is 73,000 - 77,800 yuan/ton [20]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index declines slightly, and the trading volume increases. The spot price in Shandong drops, and the import window closes. The futures warehouse receipts decrease [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Ore prices have short - term support but may face pressure after the rainy season. The over - capacity situation in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and inventory accumulation continues. It is recommended to wait and see for macro - sentiment resonance. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,600 - 3,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinean ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [23]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract price rises slightly, and the trading volume increases. Spot prices in different markets show different trends, and raw material prices are stable. Social inventory decreases, but 300 - series inventory increases [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the holiday, social inventory accumulates significantly, but terminal consumption is flat. The market does not show the characteristics of the traditional peak season. Spot prices decline, and market sentiment is pessimistic. The market trend is expected to be weak [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The AD2511 contract price rises, the trading volume and open interest increase. The price of domestic mainstream ADC12 is stable, and the inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in the domestic mainstream market decreases [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The firm cost provides support for the aluminum alloy price, but the current market sentiment is volatile, and the delivery pressure of the near - month contract is relatively large, limiting the upward price space [29].

每经AI快讯，10月16日纽约尾盘，美元指数跌0.31%报98.36，非美货币多数上涨，欧元兑美元涨0.35% 报1.1688，英镑兑美元涨0.25%报1.3436，澳元兑美元跌0.43%报0.6485，美元兑日元跌0.42%报 150.4310，美元兑加元涨0.12%报1.4056，美元兑瑞郎跌0.50%报0.7928。 每日经济新闻 ...

中证报中证网讯(记者魏昭宇)10月16日晚间，万家工业有色ETF基金经理贺方舟在中国证券报"ETF点金 汇"直播间表示，黄金价格的波动主要受实际利率、美元指数和避险情绪三重因素影响。从今年金价上 涨的背景来看，可以发现多重因素在共同发挥作用：首先，近年来全球局势的不确定性明显提升，市场 避险情绪升温；其次，美国经济衰退预期抬头，大宗商品和股市动荡促使投资者寻找更稳健的资产配 置；最后，美国债务问题积重难返，"信用裂痕"不断加大。 展望黄金后续走向，贺方舟认为，央行购金和"去美元化"构成长期支撑逻辑，叠加地缘政治风险悬而未 决、货币宽松大方向未变，金价长期具有支撑。 ...

#报告 TS Lombard：美元指数的反弹有持续的趋势。None (@None):None ...

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) depreciated against the US dollar (USD) due to disappointing employment data, with the latest exchange rate at 0.6496, reflecting a decline of 0.20% [1] - Australia's unemployment rate rose to 4.5% in September, the highest since November 2021, exceeding expectations of 4.3%, indicating a loosening labor market [1] - The number of employed persons increased by 14,900 in September, which was below the forecasted increase of 20,000 [1] Group 2 - The three-year government bond yields, sensitive to policy changes, fell by 9 basis points following the employment data release [1] - The AUD/USD exchange rate experienced a drop of up to 0.49% during the day, reaching 0.6479 [1] - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to consider interest rate cuts as a response to the labor market data [1] Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates that the AUD/USD has broken below the lower Bollinger Band, suggesting a short-term oversold condition [2] - Support levels for the AUD are identified at 0.6440 and 0.6415, while resistance levels are at 0.6520 and 0.6530 [2]

与此同时，美元指数在98至99关口之间震荡，截至9时30分，报98.4999。 工银亚洲研究研报中表示，往后看，短期内美元指数对美联储降息定价较为充分，叠加美国经济维持韧 性，政府"停摆"、日元走弱等因素阶段抬升避险情绪，美元指数料不改中枢下行趋势但阶段有走升空 间。 上证报中国证券网讯（记者 黄冰玉）10月16日，Wind数据显示，在岸人民币对美元开盘小幅上涨，报 7.1206，前一交易日16时30分收盘报7.1238。截至9时30分，离岸人民币对美元报7.12610。 同日，人民币对美元中间价7.0968，较前一日上调27个基点。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index decreased by 0.39% to 98.67, indicating a strengthening of non-US currencies against the dollar [1] Currency Movements - The euro appreciated by 0.33% against the dollar, reaching 1.1647 [1] - The British pound rose by 0.61% to 1.3402 against the dollar [1] - The Australian dollar increased by 0.41% to 0.6513 against the dollar [1] - The Japanese yen weakened, with the dollar rising by 0.49% to 151.0630 [1] - The Canadian dollar saw a slight decline, with the dollar decreasing by 0.04% to 1.4038 [1] - The Swiss franc also depreciated, with the dollar up by 0.52% to 0.7968 [1]

结合近期人民币汇率表现，东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青向北京商报记者解释了原因。王青指出，10月 15日人民币汇率中间价突破7.10关口，直接原因是隔夜美元下行；另一方面，近期外部波动加大，也需 要相应增强稳汇市的力度，这有助于稳定市场信心。整体上看，近期在美元指数震荡上行、全球汇市波 动加大过程中，人民币中间价向偏强方向调整力度有所加大。 同日，在岸人民币、离岸人民币对美元汇率双双升值。截至当日17时45分，在岸人民币对美元报 7.1267，日内升值幅度为0.17%；离岸人民币对美元报7.1301，日内升值幅度为0.14%。2025年以来，在 岸人民币、离岸人民币对美元汇率升值幅度均超过2%，分别为2.37%、2.82%。 三大人民币汇率报价全线升值的同时，美元指数跌至99下方。截至10月15日17时45分，美元指数报 98.8482，日内下跌幅度为0.21%。在经历了2025年上半年的连续下跌后，近期美元指数多集中在100下 方波动，年内最低在9月跌至96.2179。2025年10月以来，美元指数升值幅度为1%，但年内整体贬值幅 度仍然接近9%。 三大人民币汇率报价全线升值，人民币汇率中间价再创阶段性高点。1 ...

10月15日，人民币兑美元中间价小幅上调26点至7.0995元，创2024年11月6日以来新高。 人民币汇率中间价调升受内外因素共振驱动。整体上看，近期在全球汇市波动加大过程中，人民币中间 价向偏强方向调整的力度有所加大。 美联储主席释放降息信号，美元指数失守关键点位 从近期人民币汇率变动情况来看，美元兑人民币汇率多数时间跟随美元指数走势，但在贬值压力增加时 则颇有韧性。近期人民币升值最直接的推力来自美元的走弱。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青告诉新京报贝壳财经记者，10月15日，人民币汇率中间价上调的直接原因 是隔夜美元指数的下行。 10月14日晚间，美联储主席鲍威尔在公开讲话中，重申了美国就业市场面临"相当大"的下行风险，这一 表态巩固了市场对美联储本月将继续降息的预期。他还表示，美联储未来几个月可能会停止缩减资产负 债表。 鲍威尔释放的信号加重了美元的压力，美元随后震荡走软，当天美元指数下跌0.23%。9月以来，美元 指数呈现震荡下行的走势特征，指数中枢延续趋势性回落态势。 中国银行研究院研究员吴丹对新京报贝壳财经记者表示，中美贸易争端升级引发市场情绪波动，美元指 数承压。叠加美联储降息预期升温、特朗普政府 ...