Core Viewpoint - The recent Federal Reserve meeting revealed significant monetary policy changes, including a 25 basis point rate cut and the potential for no further cuts in December, alongside the announcement of balance sheet reduction starting December 1, which may lead to greater liquidity in the market [1][2]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve Meeting Outcomes - The Federal Reserve confirmed a 25 basis point rate cut, bringing the benchmark rate to a range of 3.75%-4% [1]. - There is a reduced likelihood of further rate cuts by year-end, with market expectations for a December cut dropping from over 90% to 60% [1][2]. - The announcement of balance sheet reduction starting December 1 indicates a shift towards larger-scale monetary easing, which is viewed positively for the market [1][2]. Market Reactions and Implications - The potential for no rate cut in December is seen as a negative signal for the market, but the balance sheet reduction is expected to provide significant liquidity support [2]. - The market is currently pricing in a greater than 50% chance of a December rate cut, suggesting that the Fed's communication aims to manage expectations and prevent overheating [2]. - The difference in impact between rate cuts and balance sheet adjustments is highlighted, with balance sheet expansion expected to have a more substantial effect on liquidity [2]. Global Economic Context - Recent agreements between the U.S. and China regarding tariffs are seen as a major positive for global capital markets, reducing uncertainty [3]. - Both countries are motivated to stimulate their capital markets, leading to synchronized stock market gains [4]. - The current global monetary easing environment is expected to drive both U.S. and Chinese stock markets to new highs [4]. Strategic Considerations - While the recent agreements are beneficial, there are concerns about the sustainability of U.S.-China relations, with potential for future conflicts [4][5]. - Investors are advised to prepare for both short-term opportunities and long-term risk management strategies to mitigate potential losses from geopolitical tensions [5].

Core Viewpoint - The recent rapid decline in gold prices is attributed to a typical technical correction after a significant increase of over 30% in the past month, with prices dropping from a high of $4300/oz to a low of $3900/oz [3][4][5]. Market Analysis - The sell-off in gold is primarily driven by speculative funds that entered the market during the recent price surge. These funds are taking profits due to overbought conditions and a reduction in geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding tariff issues between major countries [6][7][8]. - Despite the recent price drop, the holdings in gold ETFs remain stable, indicating a long-term positive outlook on gold fundamentals by most market participants [10][11]. - Central banks and private purchases of physical gold have not significantly decreased, suggesting that the purchasing power support for gold remains intact [12][13]. Future Outlook - The current price drop is likely a temporary correction, setting the stage for a potential future increase in gold prices [15]. - The direction of gold prices will largely depend on the Federal Reserve's actions regarding the dollar, particularly the likelihood of interest rate cuts and potential balance sheet expansion [16][17][19]. - Market expectations indicate a high probability of interest rate cuts this month, with a 100% bet on a cut by December, but the immediate impact on gold prices may be limited [18]. - A potential expansion of the Fed's balance sheet could have a more substantial impact on the dollar and, consequently, on gold prices [20][21]. Price Range Expectations - The price of gold is expected to fluctuate between $3800 and $4200/oz in the near term, with $3800 likely serving as a relative low point during this technical correction [22][25]. - Current observations show that gold prices have rebounded to $4000/oz, but the momentum for further increases to $4300/oz appears limited until significant positive developments occur [23][24].

格隆汇10月30日｜摩根士丹利投资管理公司投资组合解决方案部首席投资官Jim Caron表示，鲍威尔对 12月降息的不确定性，可能也让市场对明年的政策走向更加怀疑。"市场听到这些话，就会想，等 等……如果现在还在讨论是否再降一次，那么我们怎能确定2026年利率会降到3%？"不过他也补充说， 劳动市场的放缓可能会为12月降息提供正当理由。他表示，"我认为这不会改变当前形势的大方向。" ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, which was anticipated, but market reactions were volatile due to comments made by Powell during the press conference [3][4] - Powell indicated uncertainty regarding further rate cuts in December, stating that the committee is leaning towards a pause to observe economic conditions [4][5] - There were two dissenting votes within the FOMC, one advocating for a 50 basis point cut and the other for no change, highlighting increasing internal divisions [5][6] Group 2 - The U.S. macroeconomic situation is complex, with concerns about tariffs impacting inflation, despite September's inflation remaining moderate [6][7] - The likelihood of a December rate cut appears diminished, but the overall direction for future cuts remains intact, influenced by political factors and economic conditions [8][9] - The U.S. job market shows signs of slowing growth, which could affect the Fed's future decisions on interest rates [10] Group 3 - In China, there is potential for interest rate cuts as the central bank resumes purchasing government bonds, indicating a further easing stance [11] - The A-share market is expected to continue a slow upward trend, despite structural challenges in generating profits for investors [12] - The performance of technology stocks in both the U.S. and China may be influenced by the Fed's decisions and market dynamics, raising questions about future adjustments in these sectors [12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that the macroeconomic environment is complex, with ongoing tensions between the US and China, and that the market's fluctuations are part of a normal trading rhythm, especially around psychological thresholds like 4000 points in A-shares [2] - The article discusses the recent FOMC meeting where the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, which was expected, but the market reacted sharply due to comments made by Powell regarding uncertainty about future rate cuts [5][6] - There is an increasing internal division within the Federal Reserve regarding the direction of monetary policy, with some members advocating for a more aggressive rate cut while others prefer to maintain current rates, indicating a complex macroeconomic landscape [8][9] Group 2 - The article suggests that despite the current pause in rate cuts, the overall direction for the Federal Reserve is likely to remain towards easing, influenced by political factors and the state of the US economy [14][15] - It highlights that the US inflation rate, while having decreased from its mid-2022 highs, remains slightly above the Fed's long-term target of 2%, complicating the decision-making process for future rate cuts [10][11] - The article notes that the Chinese government has extended tariff exemptions, which may help stabilize inflation and economic conditions, further supporting the likelihood of future rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [15]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The benchmark scenario is still a 25bp interest rate cut in December and about 3 more cuts next year. The sudden drop in interest rate cut expectations caused by Powell's speech may be temporary, and the expectations are expected to gradually recover [4][5]. - The impact of Powell's "hawkish speech" is expected to be temporary. Subsequently, the market may return to the trajectory of the interest rate cut cycle. Treasury yields will continue to decline, the dollar will weaken, and the gold price is expected to recover after a correction. The interest rate cut cycle will be beneficial to emerging market stocks and bonds. In a low - probability scenario, if the Fed pauses interest rate cuts in December and has difficulty advancing cuts in 2026, Treasury yields and the dollar may remain high, the gold price will be continuously suppressed, US stocks will face pressure, and emerging market assets will also face greater pressure [6][27]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Meeting Statement Continues to Be Dovish, End Quantitative Tightening in December - On October 29, the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, lowering the federal funds target rate to the 3.75% - 4% range. There were 2 dissenting votes, indicating an escalation of internal game within the Fed [1][7]. - The economic description in the meeting statement was similar to that in September, maintaining a dovish tone. Employment growth has slowed, and the risk of employment decline has increased in recent months. Inflation is still slightly high [1][7]. - The Fed will end quantitative tightening (QT) on December 1. Since the start of QT in June 2022, the Fed's total assets have decreased from $9 trillion to $6.6 trillion. Currently, the bank reserve balance is $2.93 trillion. Excessive withdrawal of reserves may lead to a liquidity crisis, and there have been recent signs of tightened liquidity and pressure on the money market [1][7][8]. 3.2 Powell Is Hawkish, Emphasizes December Interest Rate Cut Is Uncertain - Different from the mild meeting statement, Powell showed a hawkish stance at the press conference, emphasizing that a December interest rate cut is far from certain. The Fed has not made a decision on the December meeting, and there are serious differences among committee members. More and more officials hope to postpone the interest rate cut [2][15]. - Powell believes that the economy is basically healthy, and inflation is still slightly high. He also comforted the market about concerns over the AI bubble, saying that AI is different from the 1990s bubble as companies are already profitable [2][15]. - Regarding the Fed's balance sheet, Powell's stance is dovish. He pointed out that there is obvious pressure in the money market, and quantitative tightening needs to be stopped immediately. Eventually, "we will increase reserves at some point" [2][15]. 3.3 Has the Interest Rate Cut Path Reversed? Currently, It's Uncertain - Market expectations for interest rate cuts in December and 2026 have significantly decreased. After Powell's press conference, the market - expected probability of a December interest rate cut dropped to 67.8% (90.5% before this FOMC), and the market expects only 1 interest rate cut in 2026 (3 cuts were expected last weekend) [3][18]. - Treasury yields rose significantly, the dollar strengthened, US stocks dived during the session but the Nasdaq closed higher due to AI, and gold turned down during the session [3][18]. - The interest rate cut path may not have reversed. Powell emphasized that the December interest rate cut is undecided, mainly to leave room for flexible operations. Leading indicators of CPI components such as used - car inflation, housing inflation, and wage - related service inflation are all declining [4][19].

Core Viewpoint - The selection of the new Federal Reserve Chair is heavily influenced by Trump and his Treasury Secretary, Bessent, indicating a shift towards more dovish monetary policy, with potential implications for market stability and the Fed's independence [1][13]. Group 1: Candidates and Their Positions - The five candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair are all dovish, advocating for significant interest rate cuts, contrasting with Powell's cautious approach [1][8]. - The candidates include Waller, Bowman, former Governor Warsh, White House economic advisor Hassett, and BlackRock's Rick Ried, all of whom align with Trump's desire for aggressive monetary easing [5][8]. Group 2: Bessent's Role - Bessent holds significant power in the selection process, having narrowed down the initial list of candidates from eleven to five, indicating his influence over the final choice [5][10]. - Despite not officially running for the position, Bessent's preferences will likely shape the policies of whoever is ultimately selected, as he has publicly called for a reduction in interest rates by 150-175 basis points [5][10]. Group 3: Market Implications - The potential appointment of a candidate aligned with Trump's views could lead to increased volatility in U.S. equity markets and fluctuations in the dollar's value, as the Fed's independence may be compromised [13]. - The market perceives that selecting Hassett would mean a direct alignment with Trump's policies, while Waller would maintain a facade of professionalism while still adhering to Trump's directives [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The market is reacting to the uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, particularly the potential for a rate cut in December, which is now seen as less certain [5][6]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve's independence is emphasized, indicating that it will not rush into rate cuts, especially if the government remains in a state of shutdown [5]. - Market sentiment has shifted, with reduced confidence in a December rate cut, reflecting a more hawkish stance from the Fed [5][6]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The gold market has shown signs of adjustment, with a recent long upper shadow indicating potential bearish momentum, and key price levels to watch are 4030 and 3886 [6][8]. - A shift in market positioning is noted, with a balanced ratio of long and short positions emerging, suggesting a transition into a consolidation phase after a significant decline [8]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Technical patterns in gold suggest a complex wave structure, with the potential for further price movements depending on the formation of new lows or resistance levels [10]. - Silver's market dynamics are also under scrutiny, with a need for strong momentum to initiate a rebound in gold prices [10].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point interest rate cut, with nearly 100% probability, amidst ongoing debates about inflation and employment risks [2][3][5]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - President Trump has criticized Fed Chair Jerome Powell, indicating a desire for faster rate cuts and suggesting the administration is ready for Powell's term to end [2]. - There is a division among Fed officials regarding the interest rate outlook, with some acknowledging employment market risks while others remain focused on persistent inflation in the service sector [2][3]. - Fed Governor Miran supports a 50 basis point cut, arguing that a 25 basis point reduction is too slow, while Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid is likely to oppose any cuts [2][3]. Group 2: Balance Sheet Reduction - The Fed may pause its balance sheet reduction, which has been a significant topic of discussion, as it seeks to balance policy consistency with market liquidity risks [3][5]. - Major Wall Street banks, including Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, predict that the Fed will halt its balance sheet reduction due to recent signs of liquidity tightening in the money market [5][13]. - Indicators of liquidity stress include the secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) briefly exceeding the upper limit of the federal funds rate target range and a significant drop in demand for the New York Fed's overnight reverse repo tool [5][13]. Group 3: Historical Context of Balance Sheet Management - The Fed's balance sheet management has seen two major phases: aggressive expansion during the pandemic and a cautious approach to reduction post-pandemic [6][11]. - The first round of balance sheet reduction from 2017 to 2019 ended abruptly due to liquidity issues, leading to a spike in repo market rates [11][14]. - The current environment suggests that further balance sheet reduction could replicate past liquidity crises, prompting calls for a halt to avoid repeating the mistakes of 2019 [11][14]. Group 4: Economic Data and Future Guidance - The ongoing government shutdown is causing a lack of reliable economic data, complicating the Fed's decision-making process regarding future rate cuts [16][17]. - Analysts express concerns that upcoming labor market data may be distorted, making it difficult for the Fed to provide clear guidance on its policy path [16][17]. - The market is closely watching Powell's statements for insights into the Fed's assessment of the economy and potential future easing measures, which could impact global liquidity and risk assets [17].

Core Viewpoint - The recent rise in silver prices is primarily driven by the rebound in gold prices, rather than fundamental factors specific to silver [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Spot gold rebounded nearly 2% after hitting a three-week low of $3886.46, driven by bargain buying, short covering, and expectations of central banks re-entering the market [1][2] - Traders increased long positions in gold as prices significantly corrected, pushing gold towards the critical $4000 mark [1][2] - Silver prices rose above $48.00 per ounce, with platinum demand also increasing by 1%, indicating a general uptick in the precious metals sector [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Impact - Traders are adjusting positions ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with a 25 basis point rate cut largely priced in [2] - The market's direction will be influenced by Fed Chair Powell's press conference, particularly if he hints at reducing the scale of quantitative tightening (QT) or adopts a more dovish tone [2] - Both Bank of America and Deutsche Bank suggest that the Fed may end QT this month, which would bolster demand for non-yielding assets like gold and silver [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis - For spot gold, the recent 25 basis point rate cut did not lead to a significant price increase, indicating that many long positions were liquidated [3] - The current outlook for gold remains bearish unless it breaks above the mid-band resistance level [3] - Spot silver has potential upward movement towards the resistance level of $51.07, with a subsequent target of $54.49 if this level is breached [4]