Core Viewpoint - The significant drop in short-term U.S. Treasury yields, driven by weaker-than-expected employment data, has led traders to increase bets on the Federal Reserve potentially lowering interest rates as early as next month [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - The 2-year Treasury yield fell by 21 basis points to 3.74%, marking the largest single-day decline since August of the previous year [1] - The probability of a rate cut in September is now estimated at 80%, indicating strong market expectations for monetary easing [1] - The decline in yields has negatively impacted both the U.S. dollar and the stock market, with the S&P 500 index dropping nearly 2% [1] Group 2: Expert Opinions - Gregory Faranello, head of U.S. rates trading and strategy at AmeriVet Securities, anticipates that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting rates in September [1] - The recent employment data contradicts previous statements from the Federal Reserve Chairman, who emphasized a strong labor market just days prior [1]

美联储博斯蒂克：目前仍预计今年将降息一次。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the upward risk to price stability has diminished, indicating a potential shift in monetary policy [1] - As economic growth slows, a gradual reduction in interest rates is deemed appropriate [1]

Group 1 - The manufacturing PMI in July showed a marginal decline, significantly weaker than seasonal trends observed in previous years, with the new orders index particularly affected [1] - Manufacturing momentum is experiencing a marginal downturn, indicating overall downward pressure on the sector [1] - Despite the challenges, the political bureau meeting has set a positive policy tone for the future, suggesting a focus on stability and progress in the second half of the year [1] Group 2 - The government is expected to accelerate bond issuance as part of its policy response, particularly if data continues to show a downward trend [1] - In the overseas market, the Federal Reserve's recent meeting indicated a hawkish stance from Chairman Powell, with a focus on employment and inflation [1] - June inflation slightly exceeded expectations due to rising commodity prices, adding uncertainty to the timing of potential interest rate cuts [1]

非农数据公布后，美国总统特朗普再次批评鲍威尔，并再次呼吁降息。 ...

四个月前，重返白宫开启第二个美国总统任期的唐纳德·特朗普在白宫玫瑰园展示了一块写满全球关税税率的牌子，震惊了全世界并搅动了全球股债汇市场; 然而在周四，他公布的修订版关税在投资者群体中引发的反应则相比于4月初期"解放日"之际平静得多。 但值得注意的是，全球仍面临自20世纪30年代以来美国最高水平的关税——平均基准的税率达15%，约为一年前的足足六倍。特朗普最新一轮关税行动规定 最低税率为10%，对与美国存在贸易顺差的国家则征收15%或更高级别的关税。 到目前为止，全球经济的表现比许多经济学家在特朗普最初关税闪电战后所预期的要好得多。为了赶在更高税率生效前大规模发货，出口被提前加载并发 出，这推动了许多亚洲经济体GDP超预期增长，也在一定程度上保护了美国消费者免受关税导致的价格飙升带来的影响。 在一些经济学家看来，这种过于乐观的情况可能即将发生变化。 新的美国对等关税税率 历经数月谈判——期间特朗普在社交媒体上同时威胁美国盟友和竞争对手们，最终出台的新税率大体与4月2日"解放日"公布但因股市暴跌和债券收益率飙升 而暂缓实施的对等关税水平相当或略低。不过，仍有一些令人震惊的举措，例如对瑞士进口商品意外征收惩罚性3 ...

美联储理事鲍曼：降息将为进一步的走弱提供对冲。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen has depreciated to a four-month low against the US dollar, raising concerns among Japanese financial officials about potential government intervention in the foreign exchange market to support the yen [1][3][4]. Group 1: Currency Exchange Rate - The USD/JPY exchange rate reached 150.89 yen per dollar, marking the lowest level since March 28, with the rate reported at 150.58 yen at the time of publication [3]. - Japanese Finance Minister Kato Katsunobu expressed concerns about the current exchange rate trends, emphasizing the importance of stable currency fluctuations that reflect economic fundamentals [4]. Group 2: Economic Impact and Predictions - Kato indicated that the US tariffs on Japan could impact the Japanese economy, and the government will continue to analyze the tariffs' effects on Japanese industries [5]. - Marito Ueda from SBI Liquidity Market Research warned that the yen could depreciate to 155 against the dollar, which could trigger intervention from Japanese authorities to support the yen [5]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Currency Movements - The yen's decline is closely linked to the recent strengthening of the US dollar, which has been bolstered by reduced concerns over trade wars and a slightly hawkish signal from the Federal Reserve [7]. - The US dollar index surpassed 100.10 for the first time since May 29, reflecting a strong dollar environment [7]. - The Bank of Japan's dovish stance, as indicated by Governor Ueda, suggests a tolerance for the current weakness of the yen, which has led to increased dollar buying [8][10].

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index fell by 403 points or 1.6% to close at 24,773 points on July 31, marking the second consecutive day of significant decline[1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 0.7% to 5,453 points, with total market turnover at HKD 320.6 billion, indicating active trading[1] - Net inflow from the Hong Kong Stock Connect was HKD 13.13 billion, showing continued positive sentiment[1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. GDP for Q2 grew at an annualized rate of 3.0%, exceeding expectations, while year-on-year growth was 2.0%, consistent with Q1 but down from 2.7% in Q4 of the previous year[2] - U.S. nominal GDP growth slowed to 4.5%, the lowest since Q1 2021, indicating a potential weakening in domestic demand[2] Federal Reserve Insights - The FOMC maintained interest rates but remains cautious about future rate cuts, with inflation being a primary concern[3] - The U.S. CPI is expected to rebound in the coming months due to low base effects and tariff impacts, although core service inflation may be constrained by a slowing job market[3] Sector Performance - The healthcare sector, represented by the Hang Seng Healthcare Index, fell by 1.4% without significant negative news affecting the industry[5] - Notable stocks like Tencent and Kuaishou rose against the market trend due to AI application demand, while gaming stocks like MGM China surged by 6.4%[1] Industry Developments - The semiconductor sector faced challenges with Nvidia's H20 chip safety issues, impacting related stocks like SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor, which saw slight gains[4] - The new energy and utility sectors experienced widespread declines, particularly in the photovoltaic segment, with stocks like Xinyi Solar dropping by 4.7% to 6.4%[6] Real Estate Trends - New home sales in 30 major cities fell by 16.8% year-on-year, with first-tier cities showing a decline of 26.1%[11] - The land transaction volume decreased by 48.6% year-on-year, indicating a slowdown in real estate activity[14] Company Performance - WuXi AppTec reported a 20.6% increase in revenue for H1 2025, with Non-IFRS adjusted net profit rising by 44.4%[7] - The company announced a mid-term dividend of RMB 3.50 per 10 shares, expected to boost market confidence[9]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market is experiencing fluctuations, with a focus on the upcoming non-farm payroll data and the impact of U.S. economic indicators on gold prices. The overall sentiment remains bullish, supported by the 100-day moving average, despite pressures from a strengthening U.S. dollar [1][3][5]. Market Performance - On July 31, gold opened at $3275.89 per ounce, reached a low of $3273.86, and peaked at $3314.81 before closing at $3289.93, marking a daily increase of $14.04 or 0.43% [1]. - The daily trading range was $40.95, indicating significant volatility and trading opportunities [1]. Economic Indicators - The market is awaiting key economic data, including U.S. unemployment rates and non-farm payroll figures, with expectations of rising unemployment and declining job numbers, which could support gold prices [5]. - The U.S. dollar index has recently strengthened, surpassing the 100 mark for the first time in two months, which has exerted downward pressure on gold prices [3]. Technical Analysis - Monthly charts indicate that gold prices have not reached new highs for three consecutive months, suggesting potential risks of a decline to $3000 or $2600 [7]. - The gold price is currently supported by an upward trend line from previous highs, indicating that any pullback may stabilize above $3000 [7]. - Weekly charts show that gold is trading below the 5-10 week moving averages, with a possibility of further declines to $3200 or $3000 [9]. Future Outlook - The market anticipates a period of volatility, with the potential for a rebound if the Federal Reserve decides to cut interest rates in September, which could push gold prices towards $3570 [11]. - The overall sentiment suggests that gold may experience a period of consolidation before potentially rising again in the fourth quarter of the year [5][12].