Group 1 - The meeting emphasized the importance of studying and implementing the spirit of recent important speeches by General Secretary Xi Jinping and the decisions made by the Central Committee [2][3] - The meeting called for a thorough implementation of the Central Eight Regulations and a focus on problem identification and rectification to ensure high-quality performance of the Political Consultative Conference [3] - The meeting discussed the need to leverage Hainan's advantages and conduct in-depth research to contribute to the construction of a unified national market and promote high-quality development of the marine economy [3] Group 2 - The meeting reviewed and approved the trial work rules for the committee's contact with the masses and the conveners of various sectors, aiming to enhance the role of committee members and improve operational mechanisms [3] - Personnel matters were also discussed during the meeting, with key officials from the provincial committee in attendance [4]

Group 1 - The meeting emphasized the importance of deeply understanding and implementing the key speeches and letters from General Secretary Xi Jinping, focusing on self-revolution and enhancing self-awareness in governance [2][3] - The meeting highlighted the need for problem-oriented approaches, encouraging self-examination and effective rectification of issues within the governance framework [2] - There is a call for strengthening the management of provincial and municipal decision-making coordination institutions to better fulfill their roles and responsibilities [3] Group 2 - The meeting discussed the ongoing safety production situation in the province, stressing the need for comprehensive risk assessments and emergency preparedness, especially during the peak summer and flood seasons [4] - The meeting noted that the province has made progress in implementing Xi Jinping's important speeches regarding Jiangsu's work, and emphasized the need for continuous and thorough learning of these directives [3]

Group 1: Market Overview - A-share major indices showed mixed performance on July 4, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3472.32 points, up 0.32%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.25% to 10508.76 points [2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 142.86 billion yuan, an increase of approximately 120 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [2] Group 2: Power Sector Performance - The power sector saw significant gains, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit up, driven by positive earnings forecasts from several power companies [2] - Huayin Power announced an expected net profit of 180 million to 220 million yuan for the first half of 2025, an increase of 175 million to 215 million yuan compared to the same period last year [2] Group 3: Investment Opportunities in Power Sector - China Galaxy Securities' mid-term strategy report for the power industry highlights investment opportunities in the second half of the year, focusing on improved profitability in thermal power due to declining coal prices, attractive dividend yields in hydropower, long-term growth in nuclear power, and clear revenue expectations in renewable energy [3] - Despite challenges such as declining electricity volume and prices, thermal power is expected to benefit from significant coal price reductions, providing room for profit improvement [3] Group 4: Solar Energy Sector Activity - The solar energy sector has been active, with stocks like Hopu Co. and Yamaton experiencing significant gains, driven by policies aimed at phasing out outdated production capacity [4] - Recent government meetings emphasized the need to address low-price competition in the solar industry and promote sustainable development [4] - The polysilicon market is showing signs of recovery, with prices slightly increasing due to stable production and easing supply-demand tensions [4] Group 5: Earnings Outlook and Sector Focus - Historical trends indicate that July and August in the A-share market will focus on semi-annual earnings reports, with structural opportunities expected to dominate [5] - Sectors with strong earnings certainty include wind power, gaming, and rare earths, while some renewable energy segments are seen as having reached reasonable valuation levels [5] - The macroeconomic outlook for July is stable, with expectations for trading to revolve around earnings reports [5] Group 6: Defensive Investment Strategies - Given uncertainties in the overseas market, high-dividend sectors such as telecommunications and electricity are recommended as risk-hedging investments [6] - If external conditions improve, sectors like non-bank financials may drive indices upward, warranting attention to insurance and brokerage firms [6]

国家统计局：加强对海洋经济统计工作的指导和支持 智通财经7月4日电，国家统计局党组7月4日召开扩大会议，会议指出，统计部门要有序推进全国统一大 市场建设各项统计改革任务，加快推广经营主体活动发生地统计，完善全口径消费统计制度，加强对海 洋经济统计工作的指导和支持，为推动高质量发展、推进中国式现代化提供优质高效统计服务。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the introduction of measures by Chongqing to integrate into the national unified market construction, focusing on breaking down market access barriers and establishing a transparent and orderly market access system [1] Group 2 - Chongqing is actively implementing a negative list system for market access, ensuring that no local or departmental lists are created outside the national unified list [4] - The city has initiated a campaign to clean up and rectify market access barriers, identifying and addressing 15 key violations, with 630 regulatory documents reviewed, 558 deemed compliant, and 43 revised or abolished [4] Group 3 - A comprehensive evaluation of market access efficiency is being conducted, with 20 indicators set to assess the implementation of the negative list system and improve access efficiency and government management capabilities [5] - Future actions include expediting the modification or abolition of non-compliant documents and enhancing the use of evaluation results to further optimize the market access environment [5]

Report Information - Report Title: "Treasury Bond Futures Weekly Report - Futures Bonds in Volatile Adjustment, Awaiting Policy Breakthrough" [3][4] - Report Date: July 4, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Liao Hongbin [5] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The domestic economy is in a weak recovery, and the external risks are gradually easing. However, the sustainability of economic growth requires the coordinated efforts of fiscal and loose monetary policies. The bond market is expected to remain in a narrow - range shock under the game of multiple factors, and it is recommended to wait for policy signals for band - trading opportunities [94][95] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Weekly Data of Futures Contracts**: The 30 - year and 10 - year main contracts rose by 0.26% and 0.05% respectively, while the 5 - year and 2 - year main contracts fell by 0.01% and 0.03% respectively. The trading volume of TS, TF, and T main contracts increased, while that of the TL main contract decreased. The open interest of TS, TF, and T main contracts decreased, while that of the TL main contract increased [14][17][23][31] - **Yield of Treasury Bonds**: The yields of treasury bond spot bonds strengthened collectively. The yields of 1 - 7Y maturity decreased by about 0.80 - 1bp, and the yields of 10Y and 30Y decreased by about 0.6bp and 0.4bp to 1.64% and 1.85% respectively [10] 2. News Review and Analysis - **Domestic Policies**: The Central Financial and Economic Commission emphasized promoting the construction of a unified national market and the high - quality development of the marine economy. The CSRC focused on optimizing capital market mechanisms and protecting investors. The Ministry of Finance and other departments issued a tax - credit policy for overseas investors' direct investment [9][34] - **Domestic Economic Data**: In June, China's manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing business activity index, and comprehensive PMI output index all rebounded. In May, economic data was mixed, with industrial growth slightly declining, retail sales exceeding expectations, fixed - asset investment shrinking, and the unemployment rate improving. Export growth weakened, and financial data slightly exceeded expectations [9] - **Overseas News**: The US cancelled the requirement for three chip - design software suppliers to apply for a license for their business in China. The US added 147,000 non - farm jobs in June, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%. The US House of Representatives passed Trump's "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill [35] 3. Chart Analysis - **Spread Changes** - **Yield Spread**: The yield spread between 10 - year and 5 - year treasury bonds widened slightly, while that between 10 - year and 1 - year bonds narrowed slightly [43] - **Main Contract Spread**: The spreads between 2 - year and 5 - year, and 5 - year and 10 - year main contracts widened [47] - **Near - Far Month Spread**: The 10 - year contract's inter - period spread widened slightly, the 30 - year contract's spread fluctuated narrowly, the 2 - year contract's spread narrowed slightly, and the 5 - year contract's spread fluctuated [53][57] - **Treasury Bond Futures Main Position Changes**: The net short positions of the top 20 holders of the T treasury bond futures main contract decreased slightly [62] - **Interest Rate Changes** - **Shibor and Treasury Yields**: Shibor rates for overnight, 1 - week, 2 - week, and 1 - month terms all declined. The yields of treasury bond spot bonds strengthened, with 1 - 7Y yields decreasing and 10Y and 30Y yields also declining [67] - **China - US Treasury Yield Spread**: The yield spreads between Chinese and US 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds widened slightly [71] - **Open Market Operations**: The central bank conducted 65.22 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and had 202.75 billion yuan of reverse repurchases mature, resulting in a net withdrawal of 137.53 billion yuan. The weighted average DR007 rate dropped to around 1.42% [10][73] - **Bond Issuance and Maturity**: This week, bonds worth 75.5736 billion yuan were issued, with a total repayment of 45.3068 billion yuan, and a net financing of 30.2667 billion yuan [76] - **Market Sentiment** - **Exchange Rate**: The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.1535, up 92 basis points this week. The spread between offshore and onshore RMB strengthened [80] - **US Treasury Yield and VIX Index**: The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond rose slightly, and the VIX index dropped slightly [86] - **A - Share Risk Premium**: The yield of the 10 - year treasury bond dropped slightly, and the A - share risk premium declined [91] 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - **Domestic Fundamentals**: The domestic economy is in a recovery trend, but the momentum of domestic demand recovery needs to be consolidated. External risks have eased, but the sustainability of economic growth requires the coordination of fiscal and monetary policies [94] - **Overseas Situation**: The US economy is gradually recovering, and the strong employment market weakens the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut, increasing the uncertainty of future interest - rate cut rhythms [94] - **Market Outlook**: The bond market is expected to remain in a narrow - range shock. It is recommended to wait for policy signals for band - trading opportunities [95]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Chongqing is actively promoting the construction of a unified national market by breaking down local protectionism and market segmentation through three strategic measures [1][2][3] Group 2 - The first strategy involves promoting the integration of domestic and foreign trade, which facilitates the efficient connection of domestic and international markets, with 52 leading enterprises capable of operating in both markets and 870 industrial enterprises achieving integrated operations [1] - The second strategy focuses on smoothing trade circulation and breaking down regional market barriers, with Chongqing establishing cooperation mechanisms with surrounding provinces and cities, leading to a projected 40% of its vegetable and fruit production being supplied to external markets in 2024 [2] - The third strategy emphasizes enhancing consumer interaction and promoting deep market integration, with Chongqing leveraging its unique cultural characteristics to develop as an international consumption destination and hosting over 100 promotional activities to boost regional consumption [3]

Core Viewpoint - The meeting emphasized the need to deepen the construction of a unified national market and promote high-quality development of the marine economy, highlighting the importance of coordinated efforts and policy support to achieve these goals [1][2][3]. Group 1: Unified National Market Construction - The basic requirements for advancing the unified national market include "five unifications and one openness," which are unified market infrastructure, unified government behavior standards, unified market supervision and law enforcement, unified resource markets, and continuous expansion of both domestic and foreign openness [1][2]. - Focus areas include addressing low-price disorderly competition among enterprises, guiding companies to improve product quality, and promoting the orderly exit of backward production capacity [2]. - The meeting called for the integration of domestic and foreign trade, facilitating the path from export to domestic sales, and nurturing a group of high-quality enterprises in both domestic and foreign trade [2]. Group 2: High-Quality Development of Marine Economy - The meeting stressed the importance of top-level design and increased policy support to encourage social capital participation in marine economic development [3]. - Key initiatives include enhancing independent innovation capabilities in marine technology, fostering leading marine technology enterprises, and promoting the development of modern offshore fishing and marine biomedicine [3]. - The meeting also highlighted the need for marine ecological environment protection and the exploration of marine carbon sink accounting [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the treasury bond in the macro and financial sector is "oscillation" [1] Core View - The macro environment and monetary policy have no significant changes, and the treasury bond futures may oscillate in the short term [2] Summary by Relevant Contents Market Performance - On Thursday, the opening of most main contracts of treasury bond futures rose slightly, with an overall trend of bottom - hunting and recovery, closing with long lower shadows. As of the close, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2509 fell 0.02%, the 10 - year T2509 remained flat, the 5 - year TF2509 rose 0.01%, and the 2 - year TS2509 rose 0.01% [1] Important Information - Open market: On Thursday, the central bank conducted 5.72 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 50.93 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 45.21 billion yuan [1] - Money market: On Thursday, the short - term interest rates in the inter - bank money market declined slightly compared with the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 for the whole day was 1.32% (1.36% on the previous trading day), and the weighted average of DR007 for the whole day was 1.47% (1.51% on the previous trading day) [1] - Cash bond market: On Thursday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly compared with the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of 2 - year treasury bonds rose 0.25 BP to 1.36%, the 5 - year yield fell 0.42 BP to 1.49%, the 10 - year yield rose 0.11 BP to 1.64%, and the 30 - year yield rose 0.35 BP to 1.85% [1] - The Caixin China General Services Business Activity Index (Services PMI) in June was 50.6, down 0.5 percentage points from May. The expansion speed of China's service industry slowed down in June due to factors such as the fading effect of the May Day and Dragon Boat Festival holidays [1] - The US unemployment rate in June was reported at 4.1% (market forecast: 4.3%, previous value: 4.2%). The number of non - farm payrolls in the US increased by 147,000 in June (forecast: an increase of 110,000, previous value: an increase of 139,000). The stronger - than - expected non - farm payroll report prompted traders to withdraw their bets on a Fed rate cut this month [1] Market Logic - The Central Financial and Economic Commission's Sixth Meeting on July 1st pointed out that the construction of a unified national market should be advanced in depth, and the low - price and disorderly competition of enterprises should be regulated in accordance with laws and regulations to promote the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity. The policy is conducive to stabilizing prices and restoring corporate profits, but the effect may take a long time to appear [1] - The regular meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee in the second quarter of 2025 suggested increasing the intensity of monetary policy regulation, guiding financial institutions to increase the intensity of currency and credit investment, flexibly grasping the intensity and rhythm of policy implementation, and intensifying the implementation of incremental policies. It also called for observing and evaluating the bond market from a macro - prudential perspective and paying attention to changes in long - term yields [1] - The China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in June was 49.7%, remaining below the boom - bust line for the third consecutive month (previous value: 49.5%). After the cross - half - year period, the capital interest rate has been declining continuously, which is beneficial to bond bulls [2] Trading Strategy - Trading - type investors should conduct band operations [2]

Group 1 - The steel sector experienced a strong rally on July 4, with notable stock performances including Lingang Co. hitting the daily limit, Liugang Co. achieving four consecutive limit-ups, and Angang Steel rising over 6% [1] - Liugang Co. has not identified any media reports or market rumors that could impact its stock price, and its fundamentals remain unchanged, with major shareholders holding 83.01% of the company [1] - The Central Financial Committee emphasized the need to promote the orderly exit of outdated production capacity and improve product quality, which may positively influence the steel sector's profitability [2] Group 2 - There are reports of increased environmental restrictions and production cuts in Tangshan, with approximately half of the steel mills indicating they have received notifications regarding these measures [1] - The steel sector's profitability is expected to recover to historical average levels, and the price-to-book ratio (PB) of steel stocks may also improve as a result [2]