黄金震荡上行，不断破高，多头延续攀升，昨天再反弹30美金突破，来到3400的关口遇阻调整，漫步爬 升，谨防大跌。 今天的走势 昨晚小幅调整后，再次上破。 再度破高，来到3400附近。 昨天我们3384位置，再次空收获。 今天迎15美金跌幅调整，依然处在反弹走势。 上方再触及3400，或直接突破。 上穿，继续看到3408的承压和得失。 再次突破，持续看上方3438的阻力承压。 不过，处在3408下方，持续调整，再探3384的位置。 此位置上方，依然处在反弹，挑战3400。 不过震荡上行，随时大跌，下方跌破3384，继续看到3350的支撑。 黄金连涨4个月后，到本月临近收官，迎来连续4个月横盘。特别是本月重复3300-3400的震荡格局，震 荡横盘了4个月，方向不明下，随时迎来大的突破。 操作方面，黄金整体依然处在反弹走势，看3384和3350做多的机会。此外，黄金上方面临关键阻力区 域，看3408和3438做空的机会。 昨天主要因素： 一方面，美通胀预期持续升温，受关税冲击，物价水平有所升高，而且消费信心超预期。同时，日国债 收益率走强，一个不祥的预兆，日国债遭遇抛售，面临债务危机，日元走低，美元强势，黄金承压 ...

制造"寒蝉效应"： 即使罢免不成功，持续的公开攻击和威胁也可能影响其他美联储官员的决策心态。他们可能会在潜意识里担心激怒总统而招致报复，从 而在做出不受政府欢迎的但必要的决定时犹豫不决。 损害公信力与市场信任： 市场信任美联储是基于其独立和专业的数据驱动决策。如果市场认为美联储的决策受到政治压力的扭曲，其政策公信力将大打折 扣。未来美联储引导市场预期的能力将被严重削弱。 所以说，特朗普的威胁更多是一种政治施压和舆论造势的手段，而非拥有实际法律可行性的行动。这更像是一种"极限施压"策略，旨在吓唬美联储并取悦其 认为美联储加息损害了经济的选民基础。除非法官裁定库克涉嫌的抵押贷款欺诈行为构成效率低下；玩忽职守；以及渎职，即在职期间的不法行为等三种情 况之一。 特朗普举动会对美联储独立性构成哪些挑战？ 周二，美国总统特朗普试图罢免美联储理事丽莎·库克的事件占据了市场的关注。从"攻击"主席鲍威尔降息太慢到解雇理事，特朗普不停和美联储"抬杠"， 进一步引发对美联储独立性的担忧。因为特朗普试图解雇库克，以加强他对美联储施加更多控制的尝试。如果特朗普成功罢免并替换库克，这将为特朗普在 美联储七人理事会中获得四席多数席位。 特 ...

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices are currently trading around $3,386 after testing the overnight high near $3,400, influenced by uncertainties surrounding Federal Reserve policies and geopolitical risks [1] - The market is reacting to President Trump's attempt to dismiss Fed Governor Cook, raising concerns about the Fed's independence, which has increased gold's short-term appeal [1][3] - The U.S. dollar experienced fluctuations, reaching a three-week high of 98.72 before closing at approximately 98.17, impacting gold prices [1] - U.S. Treasury yields have shown mixed movements, with the two-year yield dropping to a four-month low of 3.625%, while the 30-year yield rose to 4.915%, indicating a steepening yield curve that suggests expectations of economic recovery [1][3] Market Sentiment - Political uncertainty has become a significant catalyst for gold prices, with Trump's actions leading to a spike in gold to a two-week high [3] - The market is closely monitoring the interaction between geopolitical events and economic data to identify potential market movements [3] - The Fed's independence is under unprecedented scrutiny, directly affecting confidence in the gold market [3] Federal Reserve Outlook - According to CME FedWatch Tool, there is an 87% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed's September meeting, which supports gold's resilience [4] - New York Fed President Williams emphasized that any rate cut will depend on upcoming economic data, adding uncertainty to the Fed's stance [4] - The Fed's policy fluctuations are viewed as a "ticking time bomb" for the gold market, with Trump's interventions potentially amplifying signals for monetary easing [4] Technical Analysis - Gold prices recorded a bullish close, continuing to challenge the $3,400 level, with short-term support identified around $3,360 and $3,345 [6] - The recent price action indicates a rebound from a low of $3,320, with ongoing attempts to break through the $3,400 resistance level [6] Trading Strategy - A short position is recommended below $3,400 with a stop loss at $3,407 and a target around $3,365 to $3,345 [7] - Aggressive traders may consider entering near $3,393 with similar stop loss and take profit levels [7]

摘要周三（8月27日）美元指数走出了典型的倒V形态。当日收盘时，其微幅下挫0.06%，定格于98.147 点位。与此同时，受美联储独立性面临严峻挑战这一因素影响，贵金属市场表现亮眼：现货黄金延续强 势，连续第二个交易日上扬，涨幅达0.11%，最终报收于3397.46美元/盎司；现货白银亦同步跟涨，录 得0.12%的涨幅，收于38.61美元/盎司。 【行情回顾】 周三（8月27日）美元指数走出了典型的倒V形态。当日收盘时，其微幅下挫0.06%，定格于98.147点 位。与此同时，受美联储独立性面临严峻挑战这一因素影响，贵金属市场表现亮眼：现货黄金延续强 势，连续第二个交易日上扬，涨幅达0.11%，最终报收于3397.46美元/盎司；现货白银亦同步跟涨，录 得0.12%的涨幅，收于38.61美元/盎司。 美欧之间关税协议的稳步推进以及美日围绕汽车关税展开的积极谈判，宛如两剂良方，有望在一定程度 上舒缓当前紧张的贸易关系。然而，不容忽视的是，美国向印度施压，要求其断绝与俄罗斯的石油交易 以换取关税减免的举动，犹如一颗不定时炸弹，极有可能再度点燃贸易摩擦的烽火。一旦局势升级，必 将给贵金属市场带来剧烈震荡。 全球经济 ...

在8月28日的欧洲交易时段，金价陷入负值区间展开交投。彼时，受美元强势反弹以及部分获利盘回吐 的双重影响，贵金属价格自三周以来约3400美元的高位有所回落。与此同时，因美国总统唐纳德·特朗 普以抵押贷款存在不当行为为由罢免了美联储理事丽莎·库克，市场对美联储独立性的隐忧持续萦绕。 而这一状况恰恰为金价提供了支撑——黄金作为传统避险资产的属性在此得以彰显。另外，尽管白银未 能守住每盎司40美元以上的涨幅，但有基金经理指出，该贵金属展现出不容小觑的上涨动能，未来或将 推动银价重返2011年创下的历史高位。 【要闻速递】 现货黄金（伦敦金）： 金价当天失去动力。贵金属的积极前景仍然完好无损，价格在日线图上关键的 100 日指数移动平均线 （EMA） 上方得到良好支撑。14 天相对强弱指数 （RSI） 位于 56.55 附近的中线上方，表明短期内进 一步上涨看起来有利。黄金的直接阻力位出现在布林带的上限 3,410 美元。果断突破该水平可能会为 7 月 23 日的高点 3,439 美元铺平道路。再往北，下一个障碍在 3,500 美元，即心理水平和 4 月 22 日的高 点。另一方面，XAU/USD 的初始支撑位位于 ...

8月25日，一封突如其来的公开信在全球金融圈掀起轩然大波。信件宣布美国总统特朗普正式解雇美联 储理事丽莎·库克，这一决定打破了长达112年的制度禁忌。在此之前，没有任何总统敢轻易触碰美联储 理事的职位。更令人瞠目结舌的是，特朗普给出的理由竟然仅仅与"两套房产"相关。这一举动立刻引发 国际震动，美元指数迅速下跌，黄金价格大幅飙升，市场瞬间进入避险模式，投资者普遍认为这标志着 对美国制度公信力的一次深刻重估，美元霸权的根基正在遭遇挑战。 一旦形成多数派，特朗普不仅能直接掌控美联储理事会的决策，还能间接影响12位地区联储主席的任命 与续任，这最终将改变联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）的结构，进而决定美国利率政策的走向。这意味 着，美联储赖以维持的独立地位将彻底动摇，货币政策或将沦为总统个人意志的工具。 面对前所未有的压力，库克并未退缩。作为由拜登提名并历史上首位进入美联储理事会的黑人女性，她 在声明中明确表示特朗普无权解雇她，现行法律并不存在所谓"因故罢免"的正当理由。她强调将继续履 行职责，不会因所谓"霸凌"或网络舆论而选择退让。她的律师团队也迅速回应，称将采取一切法律手段 阻止这一"非法行动"。国会内部随即出现分 ...

在特朗普解雇美联储理事丽莎·库克后，对美联储独立性的担忧持续存在，美元下跌。德意志银行分析 师在一份报告中说，这些担忧促使投资者消化了更快的降息和更高的通胀。与此同时，报道称，特朗普 周三解雇了铁路监管机构地面运输委员会成员罗伯特·普里莫斯。此举加剧了人们对特朗普试图控制独 立政府机构的担忧。此外，美国财政部长贝森特表示，下一任美联储主席的人选将在秋季揭晓。他还重 申了对美联储进行内部审查的呼吁。 来源：滚动播报 ...

因为工资并不能支撑起所谓的"诗与远方"，我只好依靠写文章来获得一些兼职收入。如果觉得文章内容 还算可以，希望您至少能赞赏一元钱。这一元钱对您而言不算什么，不会让您贫穷；对我来说也不算什 么，不会因此突然富有。但它能让我记住您的支持，让我在继续写作的路上更有动力。 第一件事，是他解雇了美联储的一位理事。表面上看，这是因为该理事在获取贷款时涉嫌不当行为；但 业内人士指出，这很可能并非表面理由，而是特朗普在有意削弱美联储独立性的一种政治手段。众所周 知，美联储是美国金融体系的核心机构，其独立性极为重要。然而特朗普似乎始终不理解，作为总统， 为什么有个机构竟然可以不听他的直接指令？在他看来，美国应该像俄罗斯那样，总统就是绝对的核 心，说一不二，政府与金融机构完全由自己掌控。他这种思路，简直就是在试图把美联储这个"独立王 国"一点点掏空，令人担忧。 第二件事，则更加令人震惊。特朗普通过政府的力量强行介入英特尔，要求政府入股约10%的股份，并 自豪地宣称这是"为美国赚了上百亿美元"。他说，有人觉得这样做"可耻"，但他认为这就是"生意"。这 番言论在美国历史上几乎前所未有。美国长期强调自由市场经济，政府通常避免直接干预企业 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight LME copper fluctuated weakly, and domestic copper opened lower and fluctuated narrowly with the domestic spot import window continuously open. Concerns about the Fed's independence may increase expectations of monetary policy easing. Seasonal off - peak is ending, downstream orders may improve, and scrap copper substitution is favorable. There is a possibility of inventory replenishment in China, which may drive LME copper into a destocking phase and support price stabilization, but the potential upside in September is limited [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all fluctuated weakly. Alumina's resumption of production increases, with accumulating warehouse receipts and over - supply expectations. Cost support is strengthening, so it is in a weak but limited - decline pattern. The inflow of aluminum ingots in main sales areas in China is decreasing, and downstream stocking is increasing. Whether it is a cyclical inflection point needs verification [2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight LME nickel and Shanghai nickel both declined. Overall, the fundamentals have little change, the contradictions in the industrial chain are not prominent, and prices are likely to fluctuate [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper decreased by 75 yuan/ton, and the inventory of LME and COMEX copper changed. The total social inventory increased by 0.8 tons. The LME0 - 3 premium decreased by 9.3 dollars/ton, and the active contract import profit decreased by 110 yuan/ton [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead remained unchanged, and the inventory of LME decreased by 4075 tons, while the warehouse receipt of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 74 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: The prices of Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum increased by 60 yuan/ton. The inventory of LME and the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased, and the social inventory of alumina decreased by 2.2 tons. The active contract import loss decreased [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 1650 yuan/ton. The LME inventory increased by 72 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt decreased by 61 tons. The social inventory increased by 1319 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: The主力结算 price increased by 0.2%. The LME inventory decreased by 5500 tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.74 tons. The active contract import loss changed [5]. - **Tin**: The主力结算 price increased by 0.8%. The LME inventory increased by 145 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 301 tons [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the spot premium trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2021 - 2025 [7][8][11]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][17][19]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin on the LME from 2019 - 2025 [21][23][25]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin on the SHFE from 2019 - 2025 [28][30][32]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [34][36][38]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts show the trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [41][43][45]. 3.3 Team Introduction - **Zhan Dapeng**: A master of science, the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with over a decade of commodity research experience, and his team has won many awards [48]. - **Wang Heng**: A master of finance from the University of Adelaide, mainly researching aluminum and silicon, providing in - depth reports and risk management services [48]. - **Zhu Xi**: A master of science from the University of Warwick, focusing on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy, and providing timely market information [49].

Group 1: Report Core View - The expectation of interest rate cuts continues to heat up, driving precious metal prices to fluctuate at high levels. The market's risk aversion sentiment has significantly increased due to doubts about the Fed's independence, supporting the safe - haven premium of gold. Silver's trading logic is mainly driven by the future easing expectation, and it is expected to continue the upward trend with the regression logic of the gold - silver ratio [1][8] Group 2: Market Analysis - New York Fed President Williams said that it is appropriate to cut interest rates at the right time, strengthening the market's expectation of future easing. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent will interview 11 "very strong" candidates for the Fed Chairman starting next month, and the selection will be announced this fall. The Trump administration is studying a plan to exert more influence on the 12 regional Fed banks [1] Group 3: Futures Quotes and Volumes - On August 27, 2025, the opening price of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 780.68 yuan/gram, closing at 781.16 yuan/gram, a change of 0.01% from the previous trading day. The night - session closing price was 784.16 yuan/gram, a 0.38% increase from the afternoon closing. The opening price of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 9300.00 yuan/kilogram, closing at 9305.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of - 0.52% from the previous trading day. The night - session closing price was 9327 yuan/kilogram, a 0.24% decrease from the afternoon closing [2] Group 4: U.S. Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On August 27, 2025, the U.S. 10 - year Treasury rate closed at 4.234%, remaining flat from the previous trading day. The 10 - year and 2 - year spread was 0.623%, also remaining flat [3] Group 5: Position and Volume Changes on the SHFE - On August 27, 2025, on the Au2508 contract, both long and short positions changed by 0 hands. The total trading volume of gold contracts was 192052 hands, a change of 8.75% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2508 contract, long positions changed by 2 hands, and short positions changed by - 2 hands. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 447460 hands, a change of - 5.65% from the previous trading day [4] Group 6: Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 962.5 tons, an increase of 2.58 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15274.7 tons, a decrease of 14.12 tons from the previous trading day [5] Group 7: Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On August 27, 2025, the domestic gold premium was - 10.85 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 740.85 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the SHFE gold and silver main contracts was about 83.95, a change of 0.53% from the previous trading day. The foreign - market gold - silver ratio was 87.79, a change of - 1.49% from the previous trading day [6] Group 8: Fundamental Data - On August 27, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 27306 kilograms, a change of - 0.91% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 354762 kilograms, a change of 30.65% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 8614 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 330 kilograms [7] Group 9: Strategy - Gold: Cautiously bullish. The gold price is expected to be in a volatile and upward - trending pattern, with the Au2510 contract oscillating between 760 yuan/gram and 810 yuan/gram. - Silver: Cautiously bullish. The silver price is expected to continue the upward trend, with the Ag2508 contract oscillating between 9100 yuan/kilogram and 9600 yuan/kilogram. - Arbitrage: Short the gold - silver ratio at high levels. - Options: Postpone [8]