对于北京时间周四凌晨美联储的利率决议，投资者的核心关注点将是"是否有政治压力影响美联储决策 过程"的迹象。 帕夫利克认为，当前美国经济并不需要降息，但他希望美联储本周启动降息——因为利率下调通常需要 时间才能传导至经济，这或有助于美国在明年避免经济放缓。 "现在就该着手应对，以免日后演变成更大问题，"帕夫利克说。但对于鲍威尔的新闻发布会，美联储的 独立性"将是核心焦点"。 市场对美联储政策前景的反应 据芝商所（CME）美联储观察工具（FedWatch Tool）显示，周二市场预期美联储今年将累计降息75个 基点，且其短期政策利率明年年底将降至2.75%-3%区间，较当前水平低150个基点。 会议前夕市场情绪紧张，尽管投资者对美联储在暂停近9个月后重启降息持欢迎态度，但标普500指数 （SPX）、道琼斯工业平均指数（DJIA）和纳斯达克综合指数（COMP）仍在历史高位附近震荡，难以 明确方向。 股市看涨逻辑包括：关税引发的通胀终将是一次性冲击、人工智能（AI）领域的巨额支出将支撑股市 持续走高，以及美联储将实现经济"软着陆"。 "通常情况下，当前局面下不该考虑降息，"法国巴黎银行（BNP Paribas）首席美 ...

智通财经记者 | 刘婷 所谓美联储的独立性指的是，其货币政策决策如利率调整、公开市场操作等无需获得总统或国会的批准。此外，美联储 有自筹收入的权力，其资金主要来自在公开市场操作中持有的政府证券利息，国会不掌握美联储的"财权"，这样的制度 设计避免了美联储决策受到政府的影响。 1913年《联邦储备法案》确立了美联储的架构，但其职能定位更侧重于货币发行与流通管理，而非现代意义上的独立货 币政策制定权。早期美联储仍需执行财政部指令，利率政策与国债利率挂钩。1951年《财政部—美联储协议》的签署标 志着美联储开始摆脱财政部直接控制，利率政策逐步转向以通胀控制为目标。 中国人民大学重阳金融研究院高级研究员王衍行对智通财经表示，美联储的独立性是一个非常核心但又颇具争议的问 题。虽然不是绝对独立，但是从制度设计上看，美联储确实拥有相当高的"操作独立性"。 "'形式上独立，实质上有限'是比较准确的描述。这种独立性是历史妥协、制度设计、市场信任三者交织的结果。"王衍 行说，这种设计架构久经检验，可以说，还没有其它任何一家央行能够超越美联储。 回顾历史，在制度设计和大多数情况下，美联储确实较好地保持了其操作性独立。不过，近二十年 ...

该法案由亚利桑那州参议员鲁本·加列戈（Ruben Gallego）提出，并有多名民主党参议员联署。法案将 禁止美联储官员同时担任另一项由总统任命的职务，即便该官员已从另一职位休假（如米兰从白宫经济 顾问委员会主席一职），也明确禁止这种双重任职行为。 白宫官员斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）宣誓就任美联储理事数小时后，民主党人于周二在参议院提交 一项法案，旨在更明确地划分白宫与美联储之间的权力边界。 "不受政治异想天开影响的独立的美联储，是我国货币政策的基石，"加列戈在声明中表示，"米兰先生 已获得充分机会做正确的事——辞去白宫职务，但他拒绝了。" 该法案恐难成为法律，因其需在共和党控制的国会获得通过，并得到特朗普的签署。 周一晚间，米兰以48票赞成、47票反对的投票结果（投票基本按党派立场划分）获参议院确认，成为美 联储最新理事。随后他迅速宣誓就职，加入美东时间周二上午启动的美联储政策会议，预计在周三会议 结束时，美联储12人政策委员会将以多数票通过今年首次降息。 投资者热切关注，在这场市场普遍预期至少降息25个基点的会议上，米兰是否会支持特朗普提出的更大 幅度降息的要求。特朗普周一在社交媒体上发文 ...

Group 1 - The core concern among fund managers has shifted from "trade war causing global recession" to "second wave of inflation" as the biggest tail risk, with 26% of managers identifying it as such, a slight decrease from August [1] - 24% of fund managers view the loss of Federal Reserve independence and dollar depreciation as the largest tail risk, while 22% cite disorderly rise in bond yields [1] - Only 12% of fund managers consider "trade war causing global recession" as the biggest risk, significantly down from 29% in August [1] Group 2 - The survey indicates that "long on the tech giants" remains the most crowded trade, with 42% of fund managers holding this view, slightly down from 45% in August [3] - Other popular trades include long on gold (25%), short on the dollar (14%), and long on cryptocurrencies (9%) [3] - The survey was conducted from September 5 to 11, involving 165 fund managers managing a total of $426 billion in assets [3] Group 3 - Recent economic indicators show signs of rising inflation in the U.S., prompting some economists to advise the Federal Reserve to avoid significant rate cuts [4] - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.4% month-over-month in August, exceeding market expectations of 0.3%, with a year-over-year increase of 2.9%, accelerating by 0.2 percentage points from July [4] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve began a two-day meeting on September 16, with widespread expectations for a rate cut of 25 basis points, marking the first cut in nine months [5] - Investors are particularly focused on the Fed's future policy path, with the upcoming dot plot and comments from Powell expected to provide further insights [5]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve officials are expected to implement interest rate cuts to address the weakening labor market in the U.S. This marks a shift in monetary policy after a period of inaction due to inflation concerns related to tariffs [1][4] - President Trump has been pressuring for significant rate cuts, adding uncertainty to the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting. The final attendance list for the meeting may be confirmed on the evening before, with a new board member being confirmed by the Senate [1][4] - The upcoming press conference by Chairman Powell will provide insights into the latest economic forecasts and potential future interest rate directions [4] Group 2 - Analysts note that while officials may agree on rate cuts, disagreements regarding labor market conditions and inflation risks could hinder more aggressive measures. Continuous deterioration in the labor market is necessary for further rate cuts to be considered [4][5] - The composition of the Federal Reserve's voting members is under scrutiny, especially with the recent appointment of Trump's ally, Stephen Moore, which raises questions about the independence of the board [4][5] - There is internal division within the Federal Reserve regarding the expected 25 basis point rate cut, with some officials advocating for larger cuts while others prefer to maintain current rates due to concerns over labor market and inflation [5]

Macro Strategy - Trump's intervention in the independence of the Federal Reserve is expected to occur through three main avenues: 1) appointing a Fed chair who is loyal to him, anticipated to be nominated in November and take office in May next year; 2) restructuring the Fed Board to eliminate dissenting members and install loyalists; 3) influencing the appointment of regional Fed presidents whose terms expire in February [1][20]. - With the new Fed chair's appointment, it is projected that the Fed will have a more significant influence on monetary policy, potentially leading to a greater than expected rate cut in 2026, with policy rates possibly falling below the neutral level of 3% [1][20]. Economic Data Analysis - In August, both domestic and external demand weakened, with supply adjustments lagging behind demand, reinforcing a short-term scenario of strong supply and weak demand. Specifically, investment has shown negative growth for two consecutive months, and retail sales growth has been declining since May [2][21]. - The divergence between supply and demand is expected to yield three outcomes: 1) GDP growth will align more closely with supply data, with Q3 GDP growth projected around 5%; 2) the current supply exceeding demand may increase price pressures, necessitating stronger policy support for price recovery; 3) if demand does not strengthen, supply will likely follow suit, leading to greater pressure on Q4 GDP compared to Q3 [2][21]. Industry Insights - The gaming industry in H1 2025 has shown strong performance, driven by innovative categories such as "micro-horror search and escape" and "overseas SLG," which have positively impacted the performance and valuation of corresponding companies [15]. - In the shipbuilding sector, new ship price indices remain high, and the merger of major shipbuilding companies is nearing completion, suggesting a favorable outlook for companies like China Shipbuilding [15]. - The environmental sector is seeing advancements in pricing mechanisms for renewable energy, particularly in waste-to-energy projects, which could enhance the economic viability of green electricity supply [17][18].

Macro - Trump's intervention in the independence of the Federal Reserve is primarily through three avenues: 1) Nominating a Federal Reserve Chair who aligns with his views, expected to be nominated in November this year and take office in May next year; 2) Adjusting the personnel structure of the Federal Reserve Board to exclude "outsiders" like Cook, while appointing "loyalists" like Milan to strengthen his influence; 3) Intervening in the appointment of regional Federal Reserve presidents, whose terms will expire at the end of February next year [1] - With the new Federal Reserve Chair's appointment, 4 out of 7 members of the Federal Reserve Board will be "loyalists," giving Trump greater influence, which implies: 1) On a macroeconomic level, the expected rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 may exceed the current market pricing of three cuts, with policy rates potentially falling below the neutral level of 3%, leading to a shift from a soft landing to moderate expansion in the U.S. economic cycle; 2) On the asset class level, excessive rate cuts under political pressure may weaken dollar interest rate expectations and widen dollar credit risks, corresponding to declines in 2-year Treasury yields and the dollar index, while the decline in 10-year Treasury yields may be hindered by widening term premiums [1]

Core Viewpoint - The appointment of Stephen Moore to the Federal Reserve Board is significant as it occurs just before a crucial monetary policy meeting, reflecting the ongoing tension between the White House and the Federal Reserve [1][4]. Group 1: Appointment and Implications - Stephen Moore's nomination was approved by the Senate with a vote of 48 to 47, filling the vacancy left by Adriana Kugler, who resigned unexpectedly [1][3]. - Moore will retain his position as the Chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers in a "no-pay leave" status, marking the first time a Federal Reserve Board member holds a simultaneous White House position [3]. - The approval of Moore's nomination is seen as a step towards President Trump's push for lower interest rates from the Federal Reserve [3]. Group 2: Challenges and Concerns - Democratic senators raised concerns about Moore's ability to maintain independence, citing his previous criticisms of the "revolving door" phenomenon between the government and the Federal Reserve [3]. - Republican senators supported Moore, emphasizing his academic background and policy experience, and the need to fill the board to address current economic challenges [3]. - The Federal Reserve Board consists of seven members with 14-year terms, designed to minimize short-term political interference, but recent tensions have raised concerns about the potential for political control over monetary policy [5]. Group 3: Legal and Historical Context - A federal appeals court dismissed the Trump administration's attempt to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, allowing her to continue her role despite previous accusations [4]. - The court's ruling is significant as it underscores the independence of the Federal Reserve, a principle that has historically been upheld in the U.S. [4]. - The ongoing developments reflect an escalation in the relationship between the White House and the Federal Reserve, particularly in light of President Trump's recent calls for immediate and substantial interest rate cuts [4][5].

US stocks pulled back from records on Tuesday as the Federal Reserve kicked off its September policy meeting. The benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC) and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) slipped roughly 0.1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) fell about 0.3%. In an otherwise light week on economic data, investors received the latest figures on retail sales on Tuesday showing strong consumer spending despite sticky inflation and a wobbly labor market. Retail sales in August rose 0.6% from the prior mon ...

Do you believe the Federal Reserve is an independent body. What what do you think about the independent. Oh, it should be.It should be, but I think they should listen to smart people like me. I think I have a better instinct than him. If you look, all the economists got it wrong.I got it right along with one other people out of a hundred. So, they should listen to people that are smart. Nothing wrong with that.But they have to make their own choice. But they should listen. The Federal Reserve in the hot sea ...