金十数据整理：5月8日欧盘美盘重要新闻汇总 国内新闻： 1. 国家主席习近平同普京总统签署关于进一步深化中俄新时代全面战略协作伙伴关系的联合声明。 2. 中俄双方交换20多份双边合作文本，涵盖全球战略稳定、维护国际法权威、生物安全、投资保护、数 字经济、检疫、电影合作等领域。 3. 当地时间5月8日上午，俄罗斯总统普京同中国国家主席习近平在莫斯科克里姆林宫举行会谈。 4. 商务部回应何立峰赴法经贸会谈及白兰地关税调查：对话磋商持开放态度。 5. 外交部再回应中美经贸高层会谈：中方维护正当权益的决心不会改变。 6. 商务部回应中方是否会更加积极推动加入CPTPP：中国对外开放的大门只会越开越大，积极推进加入 CPTPP进程。 8. 中国海警依法驱离日非法进入我钓鱼岛领海船只。 9. 商务部部长王文涛：加快补上内需特别是消费短板，使内需成为拉动经济增长的主动力和稳定锚。 10. 华为最新发布，鸿蒙电脑首度亮相，国产PC操作系统破局。 国际新闻： 1. 英国央行降息25个基点，投票显示出分歧。 5. 世界黄金协会：预计美国的政策和结构性风险将继续推动黄金投资。获利了结可能会让市场暂停，但 也可能鼓励消费者。 6. ...

Core PCE Overview - The Core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) is projected to have a year-over-year (YoY) increase of 3.0% in March 2025, rising to 3.8% by December 2025, and then decreasing to 2.7% by December 2026 [1] - The contribution to the change in Core PCE from December 2025 to December 2026 is expected to be -0.3% [1] Core Goods Analysis - Core Goods, which account for 24.3% of the Core PCE, is expected to see a significant YoY increase from 0.4% in March 2025 to 6.3% in December 2025, contributing 1.4% to the change [1] - New Vehicles and Used Vehicles show contrasting trends, with New Vehicles projected to increase from -0.4% to 3.7% and Used Vehicles from -0.1% to 8.3% [1] - Household Appliances are expected to rebound from -3.2% to 7.8% YoY, contributing positively to the Core Goods category [1] Core Services Insights - Core Services, which make up 75.7% of the Core PCE, are projected to decrease from a YoY increase of 3.8% in March 2025 to 3.0% in December 2025, with a further decline to 2.9% by December 2026 [1] - Housing, a significant component of Core Services, is expected to see a decrease in its contribution from 4.3% YoY in March 2025 to 3.5% in December 2025 [1] - Financial Services & Insurance are projected to decline from a YoY increase of 7.3% to 3.3% by December 2025, indicating a potential slowdown in this sector [1]

英国央行行长贝利：过去一年的总体通胀率一直在2%的目标水平附近，尽管略高于平均水平。 ...

英国央行：预计2027年第二季度通胀率为1.9%，2028年第二季度1.9%。 ...

英国央行：预测2027年第一季度通胀率将回到2%的目标水平。 ...

瑞典央行：评估通胀率低于或高于三月份预测的可能性都存在，但低于预测的可能性略高一些。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Pantheon Macroeconomics forecasts that the Bank of England will lower interest rates by an additional 75 basis points within the year, with three expected cuts of 25 basis points each [1] Economic Growth Forecast - The chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, Robert Wood, has revised down the GDP growth predictions for the UK, now expecting growth rates of 0.9% and 1% for 2025 and 2026, respectively, compared to previous estimates of 1.1% and 1.5% [1] Inflation Expectations - Despite a drop in the March inflation rate to 2.6%, it is anticipated that inflation will significantly rebound in the coming months, potentially reaching 3.4% in the second quarter and only decreasing to 3.3% by the end of the year [1] Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Stance - The majority of data since the last forecast assessment suggests that the MPC will maintain a cautious stance, influenced by global economic disruptions caused by U.S. tariffs under President Trump [1] Interest Rate Cuts Timeline - The expected timeline for the interest rate cuts includes consecutive reductions in May and June, followed by a final cut in November [1]

日本央行会议纪要：一位成员表示，在下次政策加息阶段，潜在的CPI通胀率可能相当接近2%。 ...

美联储官员在5月7日利率决议声明中表示，他们认为通胀和失业上升的风险正在加剧。由于当前失业率 仍处于低位，市场需求也相对平稳，官员们表示在更清楚地了解经济走向之前，他们愿意维持利率不 变。"美联储愿意按兵不动，直到有经济数据迫使他们调整利率，"Bankrate的Greg McBride表示，"鉴于 通胀率已经高企且料将进一步走高，因此需要有就业市场显著放缓的证据，美联储才会重启降息。"(新 浪财经) ...

Core Viewpoint - The current economic situation is significantly different from 2019, making preemptive interest rate cuts inappropriate at this time [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Inflation Context** - Current inflation rates are above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, contrasting with 2019 when inflation was below this target [1] - There are expectations of upward inflationary pressures due to tariffs [1] - **Policy Response** - The Federal Reserve, led by Chairman Powell, emphasizes the need for more data before determining the correct policy response [1] - Powell indicates that preemptive actions are not feasible without further information [1]