Core Insights - The overall consumer price index (CPI) in Hong Kong increased by 1.0% year-on-year in July 2025, down from 1.4% in June 2025, primarily due to lower property tax relief measures compared to the previous year [1] - The basic inflation rate, excluding one-off government relief measures, remained at 1.0% in July 2025, consistent with June 2025 [1] - The average monthly change rate of the CPI for the three months ending July 2025 was 0.2%, compared to 0.0% for the three months ending June 2025 [1] Detailed Breakdown - The year-on-year increases in the consumer price indices for categories A, B, and C in July 2025 were 1.5%, 0.9%, and 0.6%, respectively, down from 2.1%, 1.3%, and 0.9% in June 2025 [2] - Excluding government relief measures, the year-on-year increases for categories A, B, and C in July 2025 were 1.4%, 0.9%, and 0.6%, compared to 1.5%, 0.9%, and 0.7% in June 2025 [2] - The average monthly change rates for categories A, B, and C for the three months ending July 2025 were 0.4%, 0.2%, and 0.1%, respectively, compared to 0.0% for the three months ending June 2025 [2] Price Changes by Category - In July 2025, the categories with year-on-year price increases included housing (up 1.8%), tobacco and alcohol (up 1.7%), transportation (up 1.4%), dining out and takeout (up 1.3%), miscellaneous services (up 1.0%), and utilities (up 0.7%) [3] - Conversely, categories with year-on-year price decreases included clothing (down 3.3%), durable goods (down 2.3%), and basic food items (down 0.1%) [3] - For the first seven months of 2025, the overall CPI increased by 1.6% year-on-year, with category A, B, and C indices rising by 2.2%, 1.4%, and 1.1%, respectively [3] Annual Overview - For the twelve months ending July 2025, the overall CPI increased by an average of 1.7% year-on-year, with category A, B, and C indices rising by 2.2%, 1.5%, and 1.3%, respectively [4] - Excluding one-off government relief measures, the corresponding increases were 1.2%, 1.4%, 1.1%, and 1.0% [4] - A government spokesperson indicated that the inflation in July remained mild, with the basic CPI year-on-year increase at 1.0%, similar to the previous month, and price pressures in major components being generally controlled [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Central Bank of Russia may lower the key interest rate from 18% this year if inflation decreases rapidly, but maintaining the current level is also a possibility to ensure sustainable inflation reduction [1] - The baseline forecast indicates that the inflation rate is expected to be between 6%-7% in 2025, and subsequently drop to 4% in the following years [1] - The average key interest rate is projected to be between 16.3%-18% from August to December this year, with expectations of 12%-13% next year, although the specific year-end figure may exceed this range [1] Group 2 - The Central Bank's predictions consider the possibility of further rate cuts if inflation improves significantly, but emphasizes that a rate decrease this year is not guaranteed [1] - The statement highlights that the current interest rate of 18% may be maintained if necessary, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy [1]

Core Insights - Sweden's inflation rate for July is reported at 0.8%, an increase from 0.7% in June [1] - The core inflation rate for July stands at 3.0%, up from 2.8% in June [1] Industry Impact - The rise in inflation is primarily attributed to the summer tourism sector, which has led to price increases in related industries [1] - Package tour prices increased by 16.4% month-on-month, indicating a significant impact from tourism on inflation [1] - Additionally, prices for car rentals and international flights have also seen an upward trend [1] - Diesel prices rose by 4.3% month-on-month, contributing to the overall inflation increase [1]

在会议上，官员们对就业形势可能恶化表示担忧，但大多数人认为，通胀率上升的风险是"这两种 风险中更大的一个"。 自那次会议以来，经济数据进一步强化了所谓"鸽派"的观点，即由于5月和6月的就业增长数据被下 调，他们主张降息。对经济数据的不同解读在随后的几周内使利率制定者意见分歧加剧。 上月曾投票反对按兵不动的美联储理事沃勒和鲍曼认为，官员们不应基于关税引发的价格上涨而做 出决策，因为此类价格上涨不太可能再次发生。 SHMET 网讯：根据北京时间周四凌晨公布的美联储政策会议纪要，尽管有两名官员反对并主张降 息，但美联储上月决定维持利率不变的决定仍获得广泛支持。 会议记录显示，"几乎所有"官员支持该决定，这意味着除两名反对的官员外，其余16名参与的官员 均表示支持。 这一决定是在白宫对美联储主席鲍威尔施加了强烈政治压力要求其降息之后做出的。官员们在权衡 进口商、零售商和消费者将如何分担进口关税上涨的成本后，决定将基准政策利率维持在4.25%至4.5% 的区间内。 会议纪要如往常一样在会议三周后发布，其中显示官员们对何时能够确信进口成本上升不会引发更 广泛、持续的物价上涨存在分歧。部分官员表示"未来数月将能获得大量信息 ...

新华财经北京8月21日电美国国债收益率周三（8月20日）延续跌势，盘中公布联邦公开市场委员会 （FOMC）7月29日至30日的会议纪要时短暂上行，跌幅有所收窄。 截至20日纽市尾盘，10年期美债收益率跌1.56个基点，报4.29%；2年期美债收益率跌0.23个基点，报 3.74%。其余期限美债收益率跌幅均在1个基点左右。 7月会议纪要显示，美联储同意将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%-4.5%之间。委员们一致认为，尽 管净出口波动影响了数据，但近期指标表明，上半年经济活动增长有所放缓。通胀率仍然略高，经济前 景的不确定性仍然较高。委员们同时强调，在获得通胀持续向目标靠拢的明确证据前，不会贸然行动。 美联储主管监管的副主席米歇尔·鲍曼和理事克里斯托弗·沃勒在7月会议上投票支持将利率下调25个基 点，以防止就业市场进一步疲软。 美国劳工部在7月FOMC会议后两天公布的数据显示，美国7月就业增长大幅放缓，非农就业岗位仅增加 7.3万个，远低于市场预期的11万个。5月、6月非农新增就业人数从14.4万人、14.7万人，大幅修正至1.9 万人、1.4万人，合计修正人数减少25.8万人。失业率也从6月的4.1%小幅上 ...

Group 1 - The president of the American Soybean Association, Caleb Lagrange, expressed that U.S. soybean farmers are facing significant financial pressure due to ongoing trade disputes with China, urging President Trump to prioritize soybean issues in trade negotiations [2] - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5%, citing economic uncertainty and a slowdown in economic activity during the first half of the year [3] - The People's Bank of China announced that the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remained unchanged for three consecutive months, with the one-year LPR at 3.0% and the five-year LPR at 3.5%, aligning with market expectations [4] Group 2 - The State Council of China issued guidelines for the construction and operation of government and social capital cooperation projects, emphasizing the prioritization of projects with certain returns [5] - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced that childcare subsidies will be exempt from personal income tax starting January 1, 2025, establishing a mechanism for information sharing among relevant departments [5] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission reported that there are currently 131 listed commodity futures and options in China, with 84 being industrial products, which account for 64% of the total [7] Group 3 - Several small and medium-sized banks in China have announced reductions in deposit rates by 10 to 20 basis points, in response to ongoing pressure on net interest margins [8] - In June, the domestic smartphone market saw a shipment of 22.598 million units, a year-on-year decline of 9.3%, with 5G smartphones accounting for 81.6% of total shipments [9] - The Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport has expanded its "one-minute boarding" service to flights from Guangzhou to Shanghai, allowing passengers without checked luggage to board shortly before departure [10] Group 4 - The Guangxi region in China has launched a free HPV vaccination program for eligible girls, aiming to provide vaccinations to approximately 960,000 girls over three years [11] - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange is considering a 24-hour trading mechanism, following the example of Nasdaq, with plans to study the feasibility based on local market conditions [12][13] - The UK inflation rate rose to 3.8% in July, the highest level in 19 months, exceeding the Bank of England's target of 2% [15]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Israel has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.5%, aligning with market expectations, amidst ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and a slight decrease in inflation rates over the past year [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The inflation rate in Israel for July was reported at 3.1%, which is slightly above the target upper limit, but forecasts suggest it will return to the target range in the coming months [3]. - The government has decided to raise the fiscal deficit ceiling to 5.2%, indicating potential challenges in managing economic stability [3]. Group 2: Geopolitical Risks - The central bank highlighted various risks that could accelerate inflation or deviate from targets, including geopolitical developments, demand growth coupled with supply constraints, and deteriorating global trade conditions [3]. - The ongoing geopolitical uncertainty is expected to impact economic activity, with potential scenarios leading to increased supply constraints and slower economic recovery [3]. Group 3: Future Monetary Policy - The Bank of Israel's Governor, Amir Yaron, expressed a desire to lower interest rates three times next year to reach 3.75%, although the timing for such reductions remains uncertain [4]. - A lower risk premium could lead to a rapid expansion in demand, and the appreciation of the shekel is anticipated to help reduce inflation [5]. Group 4: Investment Climate - The Israeli economy faces uncertainties due to market and technological investment conditions, exacerbated by U.S. tariffs, which pose risks to the economy [6]. - The reliance of Israel's technology sector on U.S. venture capital funding makes it particularly vulnerable to these uncertainties, affecting overall economic performance [6].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the UK's Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased from 3.6% in June to 3.8% in July, indicating rising inflation pressures [1] - The core CPI, excluding energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco, also saw a slight increase from 3.7% in June to 3.8% in July [1] - The CPI for services rose from 4.7% to 5.0%, reflecting broader inflationary trends in the service sector [1] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the rising CPI will put pressure on the Bank of England's monetary policy, making it difficult to further cut interest rates if inflation continues to rise [1] - The Bank of England recently lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4%, marking the fifth rate cut in a year [1] - The Bank of England forecasts that the inflation rate will peak at 4% in September before gradually returning to the target level of 2% [1]

根据英国国家统计局的数据，机票、食品成本提高为通胀率上涨的最主要原因。英国央行预计，通胀率 或在9月达到峰值4%。针对最新数据，财政大臣里夫斯表示"在稳定生活成本方面还有很多工作要做"。 （总台记者 杨兢兢） 当地时间20日，据英国国家统计局数据，英国7月通胀率上涨至3.8%，为2024年1月以来的最高水平， 远高于英国央行2%的目标。英国6月通胀率为3.6%。 ...

Core Insights - The Mexican Institute of Finance Executives (IMEF) has revised its GDP growth forecast for Mexico in 2025 from 0.1% to 0.4%, indicating a still weak economic outlook [1] - The second quarter GDP growth of 0.7% exceeded market expectations, contributing to a slight upward adjustment in the annual economic forecast, although the overall performance remains weak [1] - External factors such as fluctuations in demand, uncertainty in U.S. tariff policies, and weak domestic consumption continue to impact Mexico's economic growth momentum [1] Economic Forecasts - IMEF maintains the inflation rate forecast at 4.0% for the end of this year [1] - The Mexican central bank's interest rate is expected to decrease to 7.25% by the end of the year [1] Tariff Policy Impact - The delay in the imposition of certain tariffs by the U.S. has provided some support for the economic outlook, as the erratic nature of tariff announcements has affected export flows [1]