Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2509 is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is weakly oscillatory, with an overall oscillatory view. The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is loose, but the possibility of short - term interest rate cuts is low [1]. - For the main varieties (TL, T, TF, TS) in the financial futures stock index sector, the intraday view is weakly oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory. Currently, the upward and downward momentum of Treasury bond futures is limited, in an oscillatory stage. With the central bank's net injection of liquidity and market interest rates close to policy rates, the upside of interest rates is limited. There is an expectation of interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, but the short - term possibility is low, so the downside of interest rates is also limited. In the short term, Treasury bond futures will mainly be in an oscillatory arrangement [5]. Group 3: Summaries According to Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The time - cycle definition is that short - term is within one week, and medium - term is from two weeks to one month. For TL2509, short - term: oscillatory; medium - term: oscillatory; intraday: weakly oscillatory; overall view: oscillatory. The core logic is a loose monetary policy environment with a low short - term possibility of interest rate cuts [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, TS, the intraday view is weakly oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory. Last Friday, Treasury bond futures continued to oscillate. The upward and downward momentum of Treasury bond futures is limited. The central bank's net injection of liquidity and market interest rates close to policy rates limit the upside of interest rates. There is an expectation of interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, but the short - term possibility is low, limiting the downside of interest rates. Short - term Treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view of Treasury bond futures is "oscillation." The short - term and medium - term trends of TL2509 are "oscillation," and the intraday trend is "oscillation - weak." For TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "oscillation - weak," and the medium - term view is "oscillation" [1][5]. - The monetary policy environment is biased towards loosening, but the possibility of short - term interest rate cuts is low. In the medium - to - long - term, due to insufficient effective demand in the domestic demand side, a relatively loose monetary environment is still needed to support the economy in the second half of the year, and there is still an expectation of interest rate cuts. However, due to the overall resilience of the economy in the first half of the year, the policy may be implemented at the end of the third quarter or in the fourth quarter, so the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts is low. With the central bank's net injection of liquidity in the open market and the market interest rate approaching the policy rate, the upward space for interest rates is also limited. Overall, the upward and downward momentum of Treasury bond futures is limited in the short term, and it is expected to be in an oscillatory consolidation state [1][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the variety TL2509, the short - term trend is "oscillation," the medium - term trend is "oscillation," the intraday trend is "oscillation - weak," and the overall view is "oscillation." The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is biased towards loosening, but the short - term possibility of interest rate cuts is low [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "oscillation - weak," the medium - term view is "oscillation," and the reference view is "oscillation." The core logic is that Treasury bond futures were in a narrow - range oscillatory consolidation yesterday. In the medium - to - long - term, due to insufficient effective demand in the domestic demand side, a relatively loose monetary environment is needed to support the economy in the second half of the year, and there is an expectation of interest rate cuts. But because of the economic resilience in the first half of the year, the policy implementation node may be at the end of the third quarter or in the fourth quarter, so the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts is low. Meanwhile, with the central bank's net injection of liquidity and the market interest rate approaching the policy rate, the upward space for interest rates is limited. Therefore, the upward and downward momentum of Treasury bond futures is limited in the short term, and it is expected to be in an oscillatory consolidation state [5].

重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或 阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 期债 行情回顾 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 国债期货早报- 2025年7月17日 大越期货投资咨询部 杜淑芳 从业资格证号：F0230499 投资咨询证号：Z0000990 联系方式：0575-85229759 30年期、10年期、5年期与2年期主力合约行情要素表 | 期货合约 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 日增仓 | CTD券 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | T2509 | 108.835 | -0.05% | 5.07万 | 193107 | -2732 | 240013.IB | | TF2509 | 106.000 | -0.01% | 5.08万 | 155563 | -3823 | 240001.IB | | TS2509 | 102.424 | +0.01% | 2.55万 | 113842 | -718 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term, medium - term, and overall views are "oscillation", with an intraday view of "oscillation on the weak side". The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is relatively loose, but the possibility of short - term interest rate cuts is low [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, TS varieties, the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the overall reference view is "oscillation". Due to recent central bank liquidity injection, the tight liquidity situation has eased. As the bond yield approaches the policy rate, the upward momentum of bond yields is insufficient, limiting the downside of bond futures. With the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand, a loose monetary environment is needed in the second half of the year, so there is potential for bond futures to rebound. However, due to the economic resilience in the first half of the year, policy efforts may come in the third or fourth quarter, resulting in low short - term interest rate cut expectations and limited upward momentum for bond futures. Overall, bond futures are expected to oscillate in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term, medium - term, and overall views are "oscillation", with an intraday view of "oscillation on the weak side". The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is relatively loose, but the possibility of short - term interest rate cuts is low [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, TS. The intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the overall reference view is "oscillation". The central bank's recent net injection of liquidity has alleviated the tight liquidity situation. As the bond yield approaches the policy rate, the upward momentum of bond yields is insufficient, limiting the downside of bond futures. Given the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand, a loose monetary environment is needed in the second half of the year, so there is potential for bond futures to rebound. However, due to the economic resilience in the first half of the year, policy efforts may come in the third or fourth quarter, resulting in low short - term interest rate cut expectations and limited upward momentum for bond futures. Overall, bond futures are expected to oscillate in the short term [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The current core combination of "weak economic recovery + low inflation" remains unchanged, and the loose liquidity continues, which still provides positive support for the bond market. In the short term, the upside and downside space of yields is limited, and it is expected that Treasury bond futures will continue to fluctuate. Given that there is no directional turn in the policy environment and fundamentals, investors are advised to maintain a certain position [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - T, TF, and TL main contract closing prices decreased by 0.05%, 0.01%, and 0.05% respectively, while the TS main contract closing price increased by 0.01%. The trading volumes of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts decreased by 1203, 616, 81, and 2014 respectively [2] 3.2 Futures Spreads - The spreads of TL2512 - 2509, T2512 - 2509, TF2512 - 2509 increased by 0.01, 0.04, and 0.02 respectively, while the spread of TS2512 - 2509 remained unchanged. The spreads of T09 - TL09 remained unchanged, and the spreads of TF09 - T09, TS09 - T09, TS09 - TF09 increased by 0.03, 0.06, and 0.03 respectively [2] 3.3 Futures Positions - The main contract positions of T, TF, TS, and TL decreased by 2732, 3823, 718, and 2238 respectively. Among the top 20 long - positions, T and TS decreased by 1044 and 793 respectively, while TF and TL increased by 603 and 412 respectively. Among the top 20 short - positions, T decreased by 184, TF decreased by 730, TS decreased by 25, and TL increased by 170. The net short - positions of T and TS increased by 860 and 768 respectively, while those of TF and TL decreased by 1333 and 242 respectively [2] 3.4 CTD (Clean Price) - The clean prices of 250007.IB, 240020.IB, 210014.IB decreased by 0.0380, 0.0175, 0.0832 respectively, while the clean prices of 220010.IB, 250006.IB, 240010.IB, 210005.IB increased by 0.0168, 0.0262, 0.0090, 0.0637 respectively [2] 3.5 Active Treasury Bond Yields - The yields of 3y, 5y, 7y, 10y decreased by 1.25bp, 1.30bp, 1.65bp, 1.11bp respectively, while the 1y yield remained unchanged [2] 3.6 Short - term Interest Rates - The silver - pledged overnight rate increased by 17.02bp, while the Shibor overnight rate decreased by 6.90bp. The silver - pledged 7 - day and 14 - day rates decreased by 4.43bp and increased by 2.00bp respectively, and the Shibor 7 - day and 14 - day rates decreased by 4.20bp and 2.00bp respectively [2] 3.7 LPR Rates - The 1y and 5y LPR rates remained unchanged [2] 3.8 Open Market Operations - The issuance scale was 520.1 billion yuan and 444.6 billion yuan, and the maturity scale was 75.5 billion yuan, with an interest rate of 1.4% for 7 - day [2] 3.9 Industry News - In June, the industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.8% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods was 4228.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. In the first half of 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 24865.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%, and the fixed - asset investment in June decreased by 0.12% month - on - month. From January to June, the national real estate development investment was 4665.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.2%. In the first half of the year, the total value of China - US imports and exports was 2.08 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 9.3%, among which exports decreased by 9.9% and imports decreased by 7.7%. The China - US trade turned from a year - on - year increase in the first quarter to a year - on - year decrease in the second quarter, with a decline of 20.8% [2] 3.10 Market Performance - On Wednesday, Treasury bond cash bonds showed mixed trends. The yields of 1 - 3Y bonds decreased by about 0.25 - 0.85bp, the yields of 5 - 7Y bonds increased by about 0.50bp, and the yields of 10Y and 30Y bonds increased by about 0.30bp and 0.50bp respectively. Most Treasury bond futures declined, with the TS main contract rising by 0.01%, and the TF, T, TL main contracts falling by 0.01%, 0.05%, 0.05% respectively [2] 3.11 Domestic Fundamentals - In June, industrial added value and retail sales showed a slight recovery, the scale of fixed - asset investment continued to shrink, and the unemployment rate remained the same as the previous month. In terms of financial data, social financing increased more than expected, credit demand improved marginally, and the activity of deposits increased. In June, affected by the progress of China - US trade negotiations, imports and exports increased significantly year - on - year. The price level continued to be under pressure, with CPI improving marginally and PPI falling into deflation for 7 consecutive months [2] 3.12 Overseas Situation - In June, the US core CPI was continuously lower than expected, but due to the recent US tariff policy, inflation risks continued to rise. There were greater differences within the Fed regarding the impact of tariffs on the inflation path, but the policy tone remained cautious and wait - and - see, and there was no consensus on the expectation of interest rate cuts [2]

Group 1 - The 2-year Treasury futures (TS) main contract increased by 0.01% [1] - The 5-year Treasury futures (TF) main contract decreased by 0.01% [1] - The 10-year Treasury futures (T) main contract fell by 0.05% [1] - The 30-year Treasury futures (TL) main contract also declined by 0.05% [1]

Summary of Key Points - The 2-year Treasury futures (TS) main contract increased by 0.01% [1] - The 5-year Treasury futures (TF) main contract remained unchanged [1] - The 10-year Treasury futures (T) main contract decreased by 0.02% [1] - The 30-year Treasury futures (TL) main contract fell by 0.08% [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the 30-year Treasury futures (TL) main contract has increased by 0.50% during the trading day, currently priced at 120.81 yuan [1]

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Market Operations - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 226.2 billion yuan with a fixed rate of 1.40% on July 14, resulting in a net injection of 119.7 billion yuan for the day after accounting for maturing reverse repos [1] - To maintain liquidity in the banking system, the central bank plans to conduct a 1.4 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation on July 15 [13] - The interbank overnight pledged repo rate has risen over 8 basis points to 1.42%, while the seven-day pledged repo rate has increased over 6 basis points to 1.53% [3] Group 2: Financing and Economic Indicators - In the first half of the year, China's social financing increased by 22.83 trillion yuan, up 4.74 trillion yuan year-on-year, with RMB loans rising by 12.92 trillion yuan [13] - The total value of China's goods trade in the first half of the year was 21.79 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, with exports growing by 7.2% [13] - The bond market issued various bonds totaling 44.3 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, a 16% increase year-on-year, supporting fiscal policy and corporate financing [14] Group 3: Interest Rates and Bond Market - The yield on major interbank rates has mostly increased, indicating a tightening of liquidity conditions [8] - The latest one-year interbank certificates of deposit are trading around 1.64%, up 1 basis point from the previous day [6] - The central bank's actions and market conditions have led to a collective decline in government bond futures, with the 10-year contract down 0.08% [12]

端在期货 | | 7月15日 10:00 中国第二季度GDP年率/中国6月社会消费品零售总额同比/中国6月规模以上工业增加值同比 | | --- | --- | | 重点关注 | 7月15日 20:30 美国6月未季调CPI年率 | | | 7月16日 04:00 英国央行行长贝利发表讲话 | 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 备注：T为10年期国债期货，TF为5年期国债期货，TS为2年期国债期货 研究员： 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0020723 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完 整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否 符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。 如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 国债期货日报 2025/7/14 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 项目 | ...