主题演讲 "老名酒"与"新消费"双向奔赴 陕西西凤酒厂集团有限公司党委副书记 2025年是"十四五"的收官之年，也是谋篇布局之年。"科技自立自强"与"社会民生改善"是"十五五"的主要目标之一。加快建设强大国内市场，增强内需拉 动经济的能力是"十五五"的重要战略任务。 回顾2025年的消费市场，中式消费思维和产品不断向全世界延伸，国内的消费思维和惯性也在不断地向务实和理性看齐。消费者对于品牌的信任感在不断 攀升，各类商品的品牌形象建设也达到全新的高度。 "趋势之上"要求企业不只是追逐潮流，而是要洞察并引领根本性的变化；"信仰之下"则指向最高阶的品牌目标——如何打造一个让消费者不仅喜欢，更产 生信任乃至信仰的品牌。在AI技术开始影响和渗透各行各业的大环境下，如何运营新的技术重塑和赋能品牌成为当下各个产品所面临和思考的问题。 "2025中国消费趋势论坛"围绕"新消费、新趋势、新市场"，解码消费市场的商业逻辑，挖掘潜藏的商业机遇。 郭拴新表示，"老名酒"与"新消费"的双向奔赴终在共生，唯有实现传统与现代的"生"，才能成就行业发展的"态"。西凤酒的实践印证了一个核心逻辑，那 就是"新消费"不是对传统的颠覆，而是让传统以 ...

Core Insights - Shanghai is a significant hub for asset management in China, hosting 2,020 private equity firms, accounting for 26.69% of the national total, with 53 firms managing over 10 billion yuan, representing 46.90% of the total [2] - In 2023, 12 private equity firms in Shanghai successfully surpassed the 10 billion yuan management scale, with 6 being quantitative firms and 9 located in the Pudong New Area [2] Summary by Region Pudong New Area - Pudong New Area has 1,188 private equity firms, with 68 managing over 5 billion yuan, including 30 firms with over 10 billion yuan [4] - The average return for 139 private equity firms in Pudong from January to November 2023 is 26.94%, with the top three performers being Haisheng Fund, Shanghai Yixin Private Equity, and Guiyuan Investment [5] Hongkou District - Hongkou District has 127 private equity firms, with 12 managing over 5 billion yuan, including notable firms like Mingyuan Investment and Mingxi Capital [9] - The top three performers in Hongkou for the same period are Mingxi Capital, Mingyuan Investment, and Guanghe Future Private Equity [9] Xuhui District - Xuhui District has 119 private equity firms, with 5 managing over 5 billion yuan, including Jin De Private Equity and Rui Tian Investment [12] - The top three performers are Shanghai Zijie Private Equity, Cai Xia Wan Investment, and Yanfu Investment [12] Huangpu District - Huangpu District has 124 private equity firms, with 5 managing over 5 billion yuan, including Zhengying Asset and Liwei Private Equity [15] - The top three performers are Quan Cheng Fund, Qingdao Hongyun Ruiheng Private Equity, and Shanghai Darin Asset [15] Other Districts - Other districts in Shanghai have a total of 474 private equity firms, with 7 managing over 5 billion yuan, including Shanghai Boke Private Equity and Hexie Huiyi Asset [18] - The top three performers in these districts are Shanghai Hengsui Asset, Jinwang Investment, and Liangli Private Equity [18]

中泰证券指出，饮料消费旺季结束，龙头公司三季报平稳收官、优势进一步强化。展望2026，宏观环境 或迎来盈利拐点，系列消费政策提振内需，若考虑中期居民资产负债表仍需一定时间修复，软饮料行业 需求景气不惧环境扰动、基本面韧性更优。建议在饮料内部的结构性成长赛道，优选功能饮料及无糖茶 行业龙头；利润端，饮料行业原材料及包材成本红利预计延续，持续关注各企业竞争策略及新品进展。 ...

e _ M 超 10 亿 ——商社美护行业周报 [Table_Summary] 报告要点： 市场表现 T a [ 行业研究|可选消费 证券研究报告 可选消费行业周报、月报 2025 年 12 月 09 日 b l [Table_Title] 国资入主君亭，林清轩上半年收入 ] 本周（2025.12.01-2025.12.05），商贸零售/社会服务/美容护理分别- 0.83%/-0.65%/-2.00%，在 31 个一级行业中排名第 22/20/29，同期上 证综指+0.37%，深证成指+1.26%，沪深 300+1.28%。 细分子板块来看，本周消费重点申万二级子行业中酒店餐饮/贸易/专 业服务实现上涨，分别+0.94%/0.79%/0.71%，教育/互联网电商/化妆 品行业跌幅居前，分别-3.33%/-2.77%/-2.23%。 本周行业重点事件及资讯 （1）美护：我国批准建立全球首个猪Ⅰ型胶原蛋白纯度国家标准物 质。高德美旗下「童颜针」Sculptra®「身体适应症」欧盟获批。巨子 生物创始人严建亚以 4.51 亿元受让三人行传媒 8%股份，成为公司第 二大股东。林清轩更新招股书，公司更名为上海林清轩化妆 ...

Core Viewpoint - The traditional narrative-driven IP construction model is facing challenges, while Pop Mart has adopted a unique approach by focusing on "non-narrative" character IP, allowing users to project their emotions and imagination onto the IP, thus creating a new emotional connection and commercial ecosystem in the current era of personalized expression and instant emotional resonance [1][4]. Group 1: Pop Mart's IP Strategy - Pop Mart's IP primarily consists of character IP, or "light IP," which does not require a heavy narrative foundation, contrasting with traditional IP models like Disney that rely on grand storytelling [2][4]. - The core advantage of Pop Mart's strategy lies in its ability to create significant emotional space by not setting explicit character stories or single values, allowing products to reflect users' personal emotions [4][5]. - The "light IP" model is more flexible and adaptable, enabling rapid integration into different markets through a "global framework + local plugins" approach, driven by data rather than narrative [5][6]. Group 2: Emotional Connection and Consumer Behavior - Pop Mart's strategy resonates with the new consumption era's logic, where emotions have become a form of currency, and products serve as open emotional canvases for users to express themselves [7][8]. - The consumption behavior has shifted from "ownership" to "experience," where consumers seek immediate emotional gratification through their purchases, facilitated by social media and instant feedback loops [7][8]. - This reflects a broader strategy for modern individuals to cope with anxiety and loneliness, as instant emotional satisfaction serves as a form of psychological compensation in a fast-paced and uncertain environment [8][9]. Group 3: Challenges and Future Outlook - While Pop Mart's model offers flexibility, it may lack the depth of emotional connection and longevity found in traditional story-driven IPs, which can continuously evolve and engage fans [6][9]. - The success of Pop Mart's approach hinges on its ability to maintain relevance in design and social trends, as the appeal of character IP is closely tied to contemporary aesthetic preferences [6][9]. - The long-term viability and risk resilience of this model will require further validation over time [9].

Group 1 - The meeting emphasized the importance of domestic demand as a core driver for economic growth, aiming to build a strong domestic market [1] - The focus has shifted from separately addressing "consumption" and "investment" to a unified approach of "domestic demand," allowing local governments more flexibility in implementing policies to stimulate consumption or promote investment [1] - The policy aims to significantly increase the household consumption rate, with a notable gap of 1923 yuan in per capita service consumption compared to pre-pandemic trends, indicating a potential area for policy intervention [1] Group 2 - Lishang Guochao is focusing on the new consumption and new retail sectors, developing retail business through an online and offline integration model, which is divided into operations and services [2] - Huifa Food is upgrading its "central kitchen + smart dining" model to promote smart dining construction and has established a partnership with the Sha County Snack Group [2]

Core Insights - The article discusses the evolution of the second-hand market in China, particularly focusing on the company "Zhuanzhuan" and its efforts to build trust and quality assurance in second-hand transactions [5][10][20]. Group 1: Trust and Consumer Behavior - Trust is essential in the second-hand market, akin to health in human life; without it, business cannot thrive [5]. - Zhuanzhuan has addressed consumer concerns about buying second-hand products by implementing an "official inspection" service, which enhances trust and encourages purchases [3][7]. - The company has transformed the perception of second-hand goods from a risky transaction to a reliable one through standardized quality assessments and transparent reporting [9][10]. Group 2: Business Model and Supply Chain - Zhuanzhuan has shifted from a C2C model to a more controlled C2B2C model, focusing on quality assurance and direct transactions, which helps eliminate individual seller risks [11][12]. - The company emphasizes a "heavy supply" model over a "light traffic" model, recognizing that the second-hand market requires standardized and scalable supply to drive growth [11][12]. - Zhuanzhuan has invested in quality control through acquisitions and the establishment of inspection centers, enhancing its ability to provide reliable second-hand products [14][16]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The second-hand market is evolving with companies like Zhuanzhuan focusing on supply and quality, contrasting with competitors like Xianyu, which prioritize traffic and user volume [19][20]. - Zhuanzhuan's differentiation strategy is rooted in its mission to provide trustworthy second-hand transactions, which is expected to enhance its competitive edge in the market [22][23]. - The company aims to create a sustainable organization that not only serves consumers but also contributes to broader societal value [23].

长城基金/供图 证券时报记者 李明珠 2025年港股市场表现亮眼，恒生指数与恒生科技指数领跑全球主要股票市场。日前，长城基金国际业务 部副总经理曲少杰在接受证券时报记者采访时表示，2026年港股市场有望走强，当前估值已进入"放心 区间"，需理性看待市场波动与上涨节奏。 曲少杰认为，美国步入降息周期，理论上有利于成长股，美联储降息这一单一宏观变量并非决定股价的 核心因素，投资仍需回归行业趋势与企业自身成长潜力，并持续看好科技创新驱动的结构性机会以及具 备高盈利壁垒和强大护城河的新消费领域优质企业。 三大趋势支撑2026年港股 曲少杰深耕海外市场，其投资风格稳健且灵活，所管产品中长期业绩表现突出。他认为，明年港股大概 率实现正收益，但投资者应理性看待涨幅，因其更多取决于上市公司业绩增速。今年市场走强主要缘于 估值修复，当前估值处于合理偏低水平，并未出现泡沫。 曲少杰对2026年港股持乐观态度，但他强调健康的上涨应源于企业盈利的切实提升，而非单纯依赖估值 扩张。他同时指出，"逆向思考"是其投资的关键，需警惕涨幅过大资产的风险，并关注超跌优质资产的 机会。 曲少杰指出，港股走强主要受益于三大趋势：首先，科技创新强周期 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to perform well in 2026, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index leading global markets, as valuations have entered a "reassuring range" [1][2] Group 1: Market Trends - The Hong Kong stock market is likely to achieve positive returns in 2026, driven by company earnings growth rather than mere valuation expansion [2][3] - Three major trends are supporting the strength of the Hong Kong stock market: 1. A strong cycle driven by technological innovation, particularly in AI and new consumption sectors [2][3] 2. Continued foreign capital inflow, recognizing the long-term value of Chinese core assets [3] 3. Southbound capital providing liquidity support, with a cumulative net inflow exceeding 1 trillion HKD this year [3] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The focus should be on high-quality assets with strong profit margins and solid competitive advantages, as these are crucial for long-term competitiveness [4][5] - The investment strategy emphasizes a "barbell strategy," balancing stable high-dividend assets with growth stocks to capture market opportunities [6][7] - Companies with strong AI capabilities and high dividend yields are highlighted as having the highest earnings certainty and providing stable returns [3][4]

Macro Strategy - The core viewpoint of the macro strategy report emphasizes that new consumption is expected to gradually take over traditional consumption as the main driver of China's commodity consumption, supported by a policy document issued by six ministries aimed at enhancing the adaptability of supply and demand in consumer goods [13][14] - The report highlights that the new consumption model focuses on emotional value and technological content, with short video platforms and experiential economies reshaping online and offline consumption scenarios [13][14] Fixed Income Strategy - The 2026 convertible bond strategy indicates that the main theme will revolve around the dual drivers of carbon neutrality and AI, with a focus on the entire "source-network-load-storage" chain, suggesting that the market will benefit from the expansion of mid and small-cap stocks [16] - The report anticipates that the supply-demand structure of convertible bonds will improve, with a notable increase in the availability of mainline targets, and emphasizes the importance of adapting traditional convertible bond allocation frameworks for success in 2026 [16] Industry Research - The research on the U.S. electricity and AI energy storage sector indicates that the demand for power supply and AI energy storage is expected to surge, driven by the increasing electricity consumption of AI data centers, with a projected compound annual growth rate over the next 3-5 years [21][22] - The report suggests that the integration of green electricity and storage solutions will be a primary focus, with significant growth potential in the market for energy storage systems, particularly benefiting companies like CATL and Sungrow [21][22] - The liquid cooling industry report states that the demand for liquid cooling solutions is expected to rise sharply due to the increasing power density of chips, with a projected market size of 353 billion yuan for ASIC liquid cooling systems and 697 billion yuan for NVIDIA liquid cooling systems by 2026 [23][24] Company Recommendations - Satellite Chemical (002648) is highlighted for its potential growth driven by high-end new materials, despite short-term impacts from maintenance activities, with adjusted profit forecasts for 2025-2027 indicating net profits of 55.5 billion, 69.7 billion, and 86.2 billion yuan respectively [7][24] - Changbai Mountain (603099) is recognized for its unique position in the tourism sector, with profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 1.6 billion, 1.9 billion, and 2.3 billion yuan, reflecting its growth potential in the ice and snow tourism market [8][9] - Hangyang Co., Ltd. (002430) is noted for its transition from equipment manufacturing to gas supply, with profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 11.57 billion, 12.94 billion, and 14.84 billion yuan, supported by its diverse business growth and favorable gas pricing [10][11]