证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 08 月 25 日 泡泡玛特（09992.HK） 半年营收破百亿，IP 矩阵一超多强 TMT 及中小盘/传媒 事件：公司发布 2025 年半年报，实现收入 138.76 亿元，同比增长 204.4%； 经调整净利润为 47.10 亿元，同比增长 362.8%；经调整净利率为 33.94%，同 比提升 11.6pct。 基础数据 | 总股本（百万股） | 1343 | | --- | --- | | 香港股（百万股） | 1343 | | 总市值（十亿港元） | 424.4 | | 香港股市值（十亿港元） | 424.4 | | 每股净资产（港元） | 10.6 | | ROE（TTM） | 22.0 | | 资产负债率 | 32.4% | | 主要股东 | UBS Trustees | | 主要股东持股比例 | 41.7837% | 股价表现 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 12 151 621 相对表现 11 141 578 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -200 0 200 400 600 800 Aug/24 Dec/24 Apr/25 Jul/25 (% ...

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.62% and the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 1.96%, with retail and automotive sectors leading the gains [1] - Southbound funds recorded a net inflow of HKD 35.67 billion, indicating strong investor interest [1] - The Hong Kong consumer sector showed slight fluctuations during the midday session, with the Hong Kong Consumer ETF (513230) rising nearly 1%, driven by stocks like Great Wall Motors, Pop Mart, Geely, and Chow Tai Fook [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities reported that the potential of second-tier IPs is rapidly increasing, with Pop Mart establishing a strong platform for trendy toys, driven by leading IPs [2] - In the UK market, the top three IPs by cumulative sales on TikTok Shops are Labubu (52%), Crybaby (26%), and SKULLPANDA (9%), while in the Philippines, the leading IPs are Xiaoye (46%) and Crybaby (40%) [2] - The Hong Kong Consumer ETF (513230) tracks the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer Theme Index, encompassing major players in both new consumption and internet e-commerce sectors, including Pop Mart, Lao Pu Gold, and Mi Xue Group [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significant impact of Pop Mart on the domestic IP industry, suggesting that the company has validated the potential for domestic IP enterprises to leverage strong supply chains and quality operations to access global markets [1] Group 1: Commercial Value of IP - The market has underestimated the commercial value of character-based IP and the long-term operational capabilities of companies [2] - The lifecycle of high-quality character-based IP is longer than the market perceives, with examples like MOLLY showing a revenue CAGR of 22% from 2019 to 2023 [2] - Successful IP can achieve high commercial value through a combination of mass appeal and artistic quality, as seen with projected revenues of 2.1 billion RMB for MOLLY and 3 billion RMB for LABUBU in 2024 [2] Group 2: Business Challenges and Resilience - From December 2020 to June 2022, the company experienced a decline in stock price due to systemic adjustments in growth stock valuations and deteriorating profit indicators [3] - The period from July to October 2022 saw the company’s performance under pressure, with the blind box trend becoming mainstream, leading to a significant underperformance compared to the Hong Kong stock market [3] - The company demonstrated strong organizational resilience and execution capabilities during this challenging phase, which laid the groundwork for accelerated internationalization post-2024 [3] Group 3: Recovery and Long-term Value Reassessment - From November 2022 to June 2023, the company’s EPS gradually recovered, with positive guidance for 2023, although the market attributed this mainly to macroeconomic factors [3] - Since July 2023, the company’s performance has shown signs of alpha, driven by organizational optimization and accelerated international expansion, particularly with LABUBU gaining unexpected popularity [3] - The rise of LABUBU is supported by trends in personalized consumption and social media influence, which have contributed to its revenue exceeding expectations [3] Group 4: Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The company remains optimistic about LABUBU and its diverse IP matrix driving rapid revenue growth across all channels, with adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 raised to 10.03 billion, 14.49 billion, and 18.29 billion RMB respectively [4] - A valuation of 30 times PE for 2026 is suggested, corresponding to a market value of 434.6 billion RMB, indicating a potential 28% upside from the market value as of August 8, 2025 [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the underestimated commercial value of character-based IP and the company's long-term operational capabilities, suggesting that the market has not fully recognized the potential of these IPs [8][9] - The company has demonstrated resilience and adaptability in its business model, particularly during challenging market conditions, and is now positioned for international expansion and value reassessment [9][17] - The report forecasts significant revenue growth driven by the success of key IPs like Labubu and Molly, with adjusted net profit estimates for 2025-2027 raised to 100.3 billion, 144.9 billion, and 182.9 billion RMB respectively [9][15] Summary by Sections 1. Character-based IP Commercial Value Exploration - The report discusses the commercial value and lifecycle of character-based IP, highlighting that its value is not strictly tied to content depth, and that successful IPs can achieve high audience engagement and longevity [21][22] - It notes that the lifecycle of quality character-based IPs is often longer than market expectations, with examples like Molly showing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22% from 2019 to 2023 [21][22] 2. Business Model Challenges and Company Resilience - The report outlines the company's stock price trajectory since its IPO, detailing phases of growth and decline, and emphasizes the company's strong organizational resilience during market downturns [16][17] - It identifies the challenges faced by character-based IP businesses, including demand fluctuations and the need for effective inventory management [9][17] 3. Internationalization and Long-term Value Reassessment - The report highlights the company's recovery and growth in domestic operations post-pandemic, as well as the emerging potential in international markets [9][17] - It points out that the recent success of Labubu as a global phenomenon has significantly contributed to the company's revenue and valuation recovery [9][17] 4. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The report provides detailed profit forecasts, projecting substantial revenue growth driven by the company's diverse IP portfolio and effective operational strategies [9][15] - It suggests that the company is well-positioned to leverage its IP matrix for sustained financial performance, with a target market capitalization reflecting a 28% upside potential based on projected earnings [9][15]

Summary of the Conference Call for Pop Mart Company Overview - **Company**: Pop Mart - **Industry**: Toy and Collectibles Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - Adjusted net profit for the first half of the year is expected to be no less than 450 million RMB, with a profit margin of 33.5%, an increase of 5 percentage points compared to the second half of last year, indicating enhanced profitability and a solid fundamental outlook [2][4] - The company anticipates significant growth in 2026 driven by channel expansion in the US and Europe, new IP launches, and sustained growth of existing IPs [3] Market Expansion - The company is accelerating its overseas expansion, adding 5-6 new stores in the US in July, with active openings in the European market, indicating a strong strategic focus on global market penetration [2][5] - The domestic market has exceeded expectations, with significant increases in foot traffic and per-store revenue, suggesting a "re-recognition" phenomenon among consumers [2][30] IP Development - The Labubu IP has surpassed many well-known IPs globally, achieving an annual revenue of 10 billion RMB, placing it in the third tier of global IPs, although its future development path requires attention [2][32] - Classic products have shown extended sales cycles, indicating stable and lasting demand, which will provide a solid revenue base for the company [2][11] Supply Chain and Inventory Management - The company has adopted a strategy of bulk replenishment to stabilize market prices and meet consumer demand, reflecting strong demand and potentially increasing EPS [2][9] - Frequent replenishment has become a normalized operational rhythm, with a significant impact on domestic revenue growth expected in Q1 2025 due to replenishment activities [9] Challenges and Market Dynamics - The recent market performance has been relatively stable despite fluctuations in stock prices due to shifts in investment focus towards new consumption and AI applications [4] - The company is addressing the decline in scalper prices due to concentrated replenishment of Labubu versions, which has altered supply-demand dynamics [8] Future Growth Strategies - The upcoming mid-year performance meeting is highly anticipated for insights on store opening pace, category expansion, and new IP plans [6] - The company plans to increase its store count in the US from 40-50 to around 200, while also expanding in Europe [34][35] Regional Market Insights - The Southeast Asian market has been a strong performer, with significant revenue contributions and new store openings in Thailand and Indonesia [29] - The European market is viewed as strategically important, with ongoing expansion and a focus on artist collaborations and limited edition products [27][28] Consumer Demographics and Market Penetration - The domestic toy market still has considerable penetration potential, with estimates suggesting that 200 million people could be potential consumers of trendy toys [31] - The company has approximately 46 million registered members in China, indicating significant room for growth in market penetration [31] Long-term IP Management - The Labubu IP has crossed the threshold of 10 billion RMB in global peripheral revenue, indicating its potential for long-term operation and growth [32][33] - The company is confident in the long-term operational capabilities of its IPs, supported by successful category expansions and market adaptations [33] Additional Important Insights - The company is exploring diverse operational formats to enhance brand influence, including opening jewelry stores and establishing theme parks [22] - The search heat for Pop Mart's IPs in various countries indicates strong market interest, with notable performance in Thailand and the Philippines [20][19] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting Pop Mart's financial performance, market strategies, IP development, and future growth potential.

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates a significant increase in the global popularity of Pop Mart's IP, leading to an upward revision of the adjusted net profit forecast for 2025 and 2026 by 30% to 9.73 billion and 12.35 billion yuan respectively, with a corresponding increase in target price by 6.5% to 330 HKD, suggesting a 25% upside potential from the current price [1] Group 1 - The company expects a year-on-year profit growth of over 350% for the first half of 2025, with revenue expected to increase by no less than 200% during the same period, exceeding market expectations [2] - The growth in performance is attributed to the enhanced global recognition of its IP, diversification of product categories, and rapid revenue growth across various regional markets [2] - The increase in overseas revenue proportion positively impacts both gross and net profit margins, while continuous optimization of product costs and expense management enhances profitability [2] Group 2 - The company is projected to achieve approximately 170% and over 225% year-on-year revenue growth in Q1 and Q2 respectively, with a 50%+ quarter-on-quarter growth from Q1 to Q2 [3] - New product launches in Q2, including popular series and collaborations, have received positive consumer feedback, with some products sold out across official channels [3] - The company opened 25 new stores overseas in Q2, with 10 located in North America, significantly boosting market interest in that region [3] Group 3 - The increase in overseas revenue share, product price adjustments, and scale effects from new categories are expected to lead to a substantial improvement in gross margins, with a projected net profit margin of approximately 32% for the first half of 2025, marking a historical high [4] - The net profit margins for the same period in 2024 were 21.9% and 27.5% for the first and second halves respectively, indicating a performance that exceeds market expectations [4] Group 4 - The company is advancing its group strategy centered around IP, demonstrating strong growth potential in the medium to long term [5] - The LABUBU brand continues to gain global traction, validating the company's ability to innovate and optimize design while growing alongside its IP [5] - The company is expanding its business into diverse areas, including jewelry and animation, which is expected to enrich IP content and extend its lifecycle [5]

Summary of the Conference Call for Pop Mart Company Overview - **Company**: Pop Mart - **Industry**: Toy and Collectibles Key Points and Arguments 1. **Product Release and Stock Strategy**: In early 2025, the release of first and second-generation products led to a stock price drop, but the company's IP popularity remained unaffected, with prices recovering afterward. During the 618 shopping festival, the high premium on Labubu's third-generation products prompted the company to restock to combat scalping and stabilize prices through multiple pre-sales, benefiting long-term brand development [2][4] 2. **IP Popularity and Market Trends**: Pop Mart's IP exhibits cyclicality, but the sugar gel plush category has amplified its appeal, significantly increasing popularity. Labubu's success in Southeast Asia has mirrored in the Chinese market, with a surge in North American interest noted from April 2025, indicating substantial future growth potential [2][5] 3. **Global Market Performance**: Labubu has shown strong global attributes, performing well not only in North America but also in the Middle East and South America, with notable influence in the Russian online market. The demand for Labubu in Southeast Asia has been robust since late April 2024 [2][6] 4. **Diversification of IP**: To mitigate risks associated with reliance on a single IP, Pop Mart has diversified its offerings by introducing more IPs like Gudetama, Pacha Dog, and Kuromi. In 2024, Gudetama accounted for approximately 20% of revenue, expected to remain below 40% in 2025 [2][7] 5. **Emerging IPs**: The company is actively promoting new IPs such as Crybaby, Xiao Ye, and Newcomer, with Crybaby gaining acceptance overseas and Newcomer appealing to a broad audience, including women, men, and children [3][9] 6. **BJD Product Line Expansion**: Pop Mart is exploring new categories like BJD (Ball Jointed Doll) figures, with the recent launch of Spenda generating significant social media buzz, indicating successful product innovation [10] 7. **Third-Party IP Licensing**: The company has excelled in third-party IP licensing, with products like the Nezha blind box increasing foot traffic and diversifying customer demographics. Collaborations with brands like Luckin Coffee have also been successful [11] 8. **North American Market Expansion**: As of May 2025, Pop Mart operates nearly 40 stores in North America, with a strong monthly opening rate and plans to expand further into Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Japan, South Korea, and the UK [12] 9. **Southeast Asia and Europe Marketing Strategies**: In Southeast Asia, new marketing strategies have been implemented to enhance user engagement, while localized marketing activities in Europe aim to attract customers through unique experiences [13] 10. **2025 Performance Outlook**: The company anticipates a total revenue of approximately 9 billion RMB for 2025, with a strong performance expected in the first half and potential upward revisions to forecasts [14] Additional Important Insights - The cyclical nature of IPs is acknowledged, with historical data showing stable revenue prior to the introduction of new popular products [5] - The company’s proactive approach to restocking and managing market expectations is seen as beneficial for brand health [4] - The diversification strategy is crucial in avoiding over-reliance on any single IP, as demonstrated by past industry examples [7]