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专家访谈汇总:火电迎“调峰”时代,谁将成为受益者?
阿尔法工场研究院· 2025-04-27 10:24
1 、 《 光通信模块核心标的 》摘要 ■ 随着AI大模型爆发性增长(如GPT、Sora),数据中心对 高速光模块 (800G/1.6T)和相关光器件 需求激增。 ■ 中际旭创 800G产品已批量出货, 1.6T模块研发进度全球领先 ,预计2025年量产。 ■ 新易盛 400G及以下已规模化交付,800G小批量,1.6T样品发布。 3、 《 华为5G通信设备出海 》摘要 5、《 2024年全国发电设备行业十大科技创新 》摘要 ■ 作为中国首个 完全自主知识产权 的三代非能动压水堆技术,"国和一号"标志着中国在高端核电装备 领域打破技术封锁,反应堆压力容器、主泵、堆芯仪表等关键设备全面国产化,未来有望 批量化复 制 。 ■ 德国新政府取消"可信国家"限制 ,转而采用"可信技术标准",核心逻辑从"政治标签"转向"技术标 准",为华为扫清合规障碍。 ■ 华为在5G设备领域 技术先进+成本优势明显 ,替代厂商有限(如诺基亚、爱立信产能与性价比不 足)。 4 、 《 跨国巨头的数亿美元订单,被这家中国企业拿下了 》摘要 ■ 在净利率本就不高(3~5%)的背景下,供应链成本动辄占运营成本的四分之一以上,任何微小效 率的提 ...
市场主体两年增长150%!山东虚拟电厂爆发式增长从何而来
Zhong Guo Dian Li Bao· 2025-04-25 03:11
"三类资源三种收益"的市场化提速 ——全面塑造虚拟电厂发展的"齐鲁样板" 4月11日,记者走进国网山东营销服务中心,只见大屏幕上20家虚拟电厂的实时调节数据正不断跳动。 这是国内首个现货市场模式下的省级虚拟电厂服务中心,自2025年3月获山东省发展改革委、山东省能 源局、山东能源监管办批复以来,正全面塑造着虚拟电厂发展的"齐鲁样板"。 山东是全国东部沿海地区首个新能源装机过亿的省份。2024年,风电、光伏等新能源和可再生能源发电 装机达到1.16亿千瓦,占比超过煤电。当新能源逐步成为发电装机及发电量增量"双主体",带来供给侧 结构快速调整,随机性波动性增加,电力平衡难度正在不断加大。 2024年4月,随着《山东电力市场规则(试行)》出台,虚拟电厂被明确赋予独立市场主体地位,可参 与电能量市场、辅助服务市场和需求响应。 政策破冰带来的直接效应,是虚拟电厂市场主体的爆发式增长:从2024年首批8家到2025年4月的20家, 聚合容量274.8万千瓦、调节能力55万千瓦,13家常态参与现货交易,参与现货交易的数量、规模国内 领先。 "改革前沿"持续攻关 破解三大考题成就典型经验 在济南能源投资集团会议室,企业负责人 ...
常州:微电网“小”智慧构筑零碳时代大未来
Yang Zi Wan Bao Wang· 2025-04-23 07:44
Core Insights - Changzhou is leveraging its advantages in the new energy industry to create a model for green development, integrating low-carbon practices into industrial upgrades and urban construction [1][10] - The city has established the largest industrial park-level microgrid in Jiangsu Province, which is expected to significantly transform the industrial park [1][3] Microgrid Development - The microgrid in the industrial park includes solar photovoltaic panels and energy storage stations, generating an annual electricity output of 1.7 million kWh, with a revenue of approximately 1.4 million yuan from solar energy and 2.9 million yuan from energy storage [3][6] - The microgrid allows for cost reductions for both the park and its employees, with interactive charging areas established for electric vehicles [3][5] Virtual Power Plant - Changzhou's virtual power plant management center integrates solar panels, energy storage, and charging stations, managing 120,000 kWh of green electricity, sufficient for 40,000 households' daily consumption [7][8] - The virtual power plant optimizes energy consumption and promotes the use of renewable energy, contributing to the city's sustainable development [8] Industry Growth and Investment - Changzhou has completed 39 microgrid projects, covering various applications and attracting investments of 1.18 billion yuan, with a significant reduction in coal consumption among industrial enterprises [8][10] - The city aims to establish 300 microgrid projects in the next three years, targeting a trillion-level microgrid industry cluster [13] Supply Chain and Local Industry - Local companies are benefiting from the microgrid initiatives, with a significant portion of the global market for composite materials being supplied from Changzhou [11] - The integration of production, research, and manufacturing within a 10-kilometer radius enhances the city's competitive edge in the new energy sector [14]
公用环保|抽水蓄能:电价机制改善刺激投资,抽蓄步入扩张周期
中信证券研究· 2025-04-21 01:03
Core Viewpoint - The rapid growth of renewable energy enhances the demand for peak regulation in the power system, highlighting the cost and lifespan advantages of pumped storage investment. The implementation of a two-part electricity pricing system clarifies the cost recovery model, ensuring reasonable investment returns. The development of the electricity spot market and auxiliary service market is expected to further increase project revenues, making pumped storage power stations attractive to investors [1][19]. Group 1: Industry Overview - Pumped storage is currently the most mature energy storage technology, suitable for large-scale scheduling in the power system, providing peak shaving, frequency regulation, and energy storage functions, which facilitate the consumption of renewable energy [2]. - The historical development of pumped storage in China began in the 1960s, with significant growth in installed capacity during the 1990s and 2000s. However, the installed capacity growth during the "12th" and "13th" Five-Year Plans fell short of national targets due to low reasonable return rates under the previous electricity pricing mechanism [6][7]. Group 2: Development Opportunities - The increasing share of renewable energy in the power system has led to greater peak regulation pressure, while the construction of flexible regulation power sources has lagged. This has renewed attention on pumped storage as a key adjustment power source, with government departments proposing ambitious development targets and project lists [9]. - It is projected that by the end of 2025 and 2030, the cumulative installed capacity of pumped storage will reach 73 GW and 155 GW, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 18.3% and 16.2% during the "14th" and "15th" Five-Year Plans [9]. Group 3: Investment Returns - The comprehensive implementation of a two-part electricity pricing system ensures that the initial investment and ongoing operational costs of pumped storage power stations can be recovered, providing stable returns for investors. The ongoing development of the electricity spot market and auxiliary service market is expected to enhance revenue through price differentials and participation in auxiliary services [19]. - Simulations indicate that as the additional profit per kWh from the spot market increases, the internal rate of return (IRR) for equity will rise significantly, demonstrating strong return potential [19][21]. Group 4: Industry Landscape - The early limitations in policy and profitability have resulted in the majority of existing pumped storage power stations being operated by State Grid and Southern Grid. Looking ahead, these entities are expected to lead the industry, with ambitious targets for installed capacity by 2030 [25][27]. - The central enterprises are becoming significant players in the pumped storage sector, with approximately 40% of the approved project scale during the "14th" Five-Year Plan, leveraging their financial strength and experience in large-scale power station development [25].
青达环保20250416
2025-04-16 15:46
Summary of Qinda Environmental Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Qinda Environmental - **Industry**: Environmental Protection and Energy Key Points and Arguments Industry and Market Dynamics - Qinda Environmental benefits from the new construction and upgrade cycle of coal-fired power plants, along with policy support, leading to increased market demand in traditional photovoltaic business, thermal power renovation, desulfurization wastewater treatment, and steel slag processing [2][4] - The company’s core technology for full-load denitrification in thermal power flexibility renovation has emerged as a new growth point, addressing issues related to the increase in renewable energy installations [2][3] - The market for slag energy-saving treatment and flue gas treatment has become significant, with dry and wet slag treatment systems accounting for over 50% of revenue in recent years, and low-temperature flue gas waste heat recovery increasing from 10% in 2012 to nearly 30% in 2023-2024 [2][8] Financial Performance and Projections - Qinda Environmental expects significant growth in 2025, with a projected revenue of approximately 200 million yuan, driven by advancements in core and emerging businesses, as well as overseas market orders from Korea and Indonesia [3][5][25] - High-margin spare parts orders significantly contribute to the company’s performance, with nearly 40% of slag treatment orders in 2024 being high-margin spare parts, and expectations for this to exceed 40% in 2025 [10][16] Business Segments and Growth Areas - The company’s main business areas include traditional photovoltaic, thermal power renovation, desulfurization wastewater treatment, and steel slag processing, all of which have seen improved market conditions [4][6] - Emerging businesses, such as steel slag processing and the recently completed 90 MW fish-solar complementary project, are expected to contribute positively to 2025 performance [5][23] - The desulfurization wastewater treatment business is anticipated to become a significant growth point, especially with the introduction of high-salinity wastewater reuse technology [24] Competitive Position and Strategy - Qinda Environmental has a strong competitive edge due to its experienced management, including the chairman with a background in power equipment manufacturing, and a solid customer base developed over years [7][13] - The company is actively expanding into overseas markets, particularly in Southeast Asia and Korea, where demand for thermal power is growing [19][20][21] Future Outlook - The industry outlook for Qinda Environmental is optimistic, with expectations for continued growth driven by the ongoing upgrade cycle of coal-fired power plants and increasing demand for flexible power generation solutions [11][17] - The company’s marketing network is expanding internationally, with a potential annual market size of approximately 1 billion yuan based on a 600,000 kW unit benchmark [14] - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing need for equipment upgrades and renovations in the coal power sector, supported by favorable policies and market conditions [12][25] Additional Insights - The full-load denitrification project has shown rapid growth since its inception, although growth rates have moderated recently due to order release cycles [9] - The company’s traditional business segments, particularly flue gas waste heat treatment and slag processing, have experienced rapid growth, with stable profit margins [15] This comprehensive overview highlights Qinda Environmental's strategic positioning, market opportunities, and growth potential within the environmental protection and energy sector.
市值蒸发4500亿!美国关税风暴冲击储能江湖|深度
24潮· 2025-04-09 22:09
美国关税风暴可能深度影响,甚至严重冲击全球储能江湖。 据24潮产业研究院 (TTIR) 统计,两个交易日 (4月7-8日) ,仅国内储能上市公司总市值蒸发近 4500亿元,降幅达15.92%! 目前之所以在资本层面产生如此大的冲击与破坏力,与美国在全球储能江湖地位有很大关系。据 中信建投证券统计,2024年美国储能装机需求约40GWh,占比全球装机的20%,对应储能电池要 货80-100GWh。 根据海关总署数据显示,2024年中国向美国出口锂电池153.15亿美元 (约1100亿人民币) ,占 国内锂电池出口总额的25%。另外据CESA储能应用分会产业数据库不完全统计,就中国企业出 海情况来看,2024年中国企业跟美国企业签订储能订单最多,规模最大,达24个,总规模超 65.78GWh,占中国企业全球出海订单规模的33.63%。 很明显,为了实现争夺储能领域的全球话语权与定价权,美国在政策层面正在全力 "封堵" 中国 储能企业,以实现 "将完整的电池供应链带回美国" 的战略目标。 当前美国储能江湖,对中资企业而言即意味着巨大的发展空间与机遇,也预示着激烈的竞争与博 弈风险,而留给企业破局的时间已经非常紧迫了 ...
电力|暖冬&高基数导致需求平淡,火核电源投资加速
中信证券研究· 2025-04-09 00:19
Core Viewpoint - The electricity consumption growth in January and February 2025 was modest at 1.3%, primarily due to warm winter temperatures and a high base effect from the leap year in 2024, leading to a decline in electricity demand across various sectors [1][2]. Demand - In January and February 2025, total electricity consumption reached 155.64 billion kWh, with a year-on-year growth of 1.3%, down 1.9 percentage points from December 2024. The contributions to overall electricity growth were 7.7% from primary industry, 40.4% from secondary industry, 50.7% from tertiary industry, and 1.6% from residential use [2]. - The secondary industry's electricity consumption growth rate declined, with high-energy-consuming sectors experiencing a slowdown. High-energy regions saw a consumption growth rate drop to 2.4%, while coastal regions continued to decline [2]. Supply - As of February 2025, the installed capacity of power plants with 600,000 kW and above reached 298 million kW, a year-on-year increase of 11.7%. In January and February, new installations totaled 54,530 MW, including 39,470 MW of solar power [3]. - Power source investment amounted to 75.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, but down 11.9 percentage points compared to the entire year of 2024. Conversely, grid investment reached 43.6 billion yuan, up 33.5% year-on-year, marking an 18.2 percentage point increase from 2024 [3]. Consumption - The average utilization hours of power generation equipment in January and February were 505 hours, down 10.3% year-on-year. Specifically, hydropower utilization was 368 hours (down 0.3%), thermal power was 691 hours (down 9.4%), nuclear power was 1,226 hours (up 0.8%), wind power was 363 hours (down 2.7%), and solar power was 166 hours (down 1.2%) [4]. - In February, the domestic wind power utilization rate was 92.9%, down 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, while the solar power utilization rate remained stable at 93.4% [4]. The decline in thermal power utilization hours is attributed to the expansion of thermal power installations in 2024 and limited electricity demand growth in 2025 [4]. Investment Opportunities - Focus on long-term assets such as hydropower and nuclear power, which benefit from declining interest rates and return expectations. Low-valuation green electricity stocks in Hong Kong present a safety margin and potential policy improvements [6]. - Selective investments in sectors with resource advantages or superior business models, such as offshore wind and integrated coal power [6]. - Opportunities arising from the integration of digitalization and new power systems, including virtual power plants, microgrids, and comprehensive energy services [6].
AI赋能新能源消纳
Zhong Guo Dian Li Bao· 2025-04-02 02:52
"通过这个系统,不仅能实时查看新能源的装机容量、出力等情况,还能实时监视各断面功率曲线和新 能源出力曲线,当监视断面越限后,系统会自动生成越限预警和恢复策略。"3月27日,在南方电网贵州 安顺供电局电力调度控制中心的大屏幕上,安顺网区各片区新能源场站接入数量、新能源可调容量占比 统计、统调负荷的实时曲线与预测曲线等情况一目了然。 据悉,该系统整合了安顺电网用电负荷预测和新能源发电功率预测开展网络分析,实现新能源消纳能力 的预测、预警分析,给出基于风光水互补优化的调控解决预案。同时针对峰谷时段的无功电压越限情 况,给出消除越限的各种无功调整措施方案,提升新能源消纳能力和保障电网安全稳定运行。 "比如系统监测到110千伏紫干双回线在12时至16时这个时段有断面越限预警,电压越限预警及控制策略 模块就会自动生成越限预警和恢复策略,调度员可以根据策略,执行电压控制措施,提升电压合格率至 国标水平,消除新能源集中上网对电压合格率的影响,保障居民生产和生活用电安全。"杨强举例说。 自2024年6月上线运行以来,"安顺地调新能源辅助决策系统"输出水风光互补辅助决策优化,累计新增 消纳风光电量209万千瓦时。 数据显示,20 ...
16家储能系统企业2024业绩出炉
鑫椤储能· 2025-03-28 02:30
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant growth in the global energy storage market, particularly in lithium battery shipments and installations, driven by various factors including renewable energy demands and energy security needs [4]. Company Performance Summary - **Tesla**: Revenue of $97.69 billion with a 1% increase; energy storage revenue of $10.086 billion, showing a 67% year-on-year growth; net profit decreased by 53% to $7.091 billion [3]. - **Wärtsilä**: Revenue of €6.449 billion, a 7% increase; net profit increased by 88.5% to €507 million [3]. - **海博思创**: Revenue of 8.27 billion yuan, an 18.44% increase; net profit of 647 million yuan, up by 11.92% [3]. - **Fluence**: Revenue of $2.7 billion, a 22% increase; net profit increased by 129.03% to $30.4 million [3]. - **阿特斯**: Revenue of 46.161 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.03%; net profit decreased by 21.09% to 2.291 billion yuan [3]. - **华宝新能源**: Revenue between 3.4 billion to 3.7 billion yuan, a significant increase of 146.94%-159.91%; net profit between 200 million to 250 million yuan, up by 215.13%-243.91% [3]. - **新网光**: Revenue of 1.895 billion yuan, an 11.39% increase; net profit of 170 million yuan, up by 2.77% [3]. - **特变电工**: Net profit expected between 3.9 billion to 4.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 59.81% to 63.55% [3]. - **上海电气**: Net profit expected between 680 million to 810 million yuan, an increase of 138.6% to 184.2% [3]. - **易事特**: Net profit expected between 180.1 million to 236.4 million yuan, a decrease of 58% to 68% [3]. - **晶科能源**: Net profit expected between 80 million to 120 million yuan, a decrease of 98.39% to 98.92% [3]. - **科陆电子**: Revenue between 4.3 billion to 4.5 billion yuan, a slight increase of 2.38%-7%; net profit expected to be a loss between 380 million to 480 million yuan [3]. - **育都电源**: Revenue between 8.4 billion to 9.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 35.22% to 42.01%; net profit expected to be a loss between 1.2 billion to 1.56 billion yuan [3]. - **智光电气**: Net profit expected to be a loss between 250 million to 350 million yuan [3]. - **华自科技**: Net profit expected to be a loss between 360 million to 420 million yuan [3]. - **东方日升**: Net profit expected to be a loss between 2.7 billion to 3.5 billion yuan [3]. Industry Growth Insights - The global lithium battery energy storage system installations are projected to reach 63 GW/165 GWh in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 61.5% and 77.4% respectively [4]. - The primary drivers for market growth include the demand for renewable energy consumption in China, increased demand for energy storage systems in the US grid, the green energy transition in Europe, energy security needs, and cross-border grid interconnectivity [4]. - Global shipments of lithium batteries for energy storage are expected to grow over 55% year-on-year, with specific segments like power storage, residential, and commercial storage showing growth rates of over 70%, 25%, and 40% respectively [3].
【国金电新】中国西电深度:一次设备老牌巨头,主网景气再腾飞
新兴产业观察者· 2025-03-14 02:11
2.1.2 公司端:交直流产品矩阵完善,稳居行业份额第一,持续受益于特高压建设高峰期 2.2 主干网:输变电项目招标稳健增长,500kv以上招标放量,公司份额维持行业第一 + 目录 一、输变电一次设备龙头,盈利能力持续改善 1.1 一次设备品类覆盖齐全,变压器&开关贡献主要营收 1.2 中电装备集团核心上市公司,提质增效持续释放盈利潜力 二、网内市场:公司稳居国网集招份额第一,受益特高压&超高压投资增长 2.1 特高压:预计25-26年加速核准开工,公司特高压订单有望快速增长 2.1.1 行业端:预计25年及"十五五"年开工4直2交、核心设备年均招标额281亿元 2.2.1 行业维度:24年输变电招标稳健增长,预计25年投资维持高基数 2.2.2 公司维度:技术沉淀积累雄厚,市占率同样在国网主干网维持行业第一 三、网外、海外市场:电源&工业侧加速推进,国际业务贡献新增长级 3.1 网外市场:电源&工业侧下游潜力巨大,公司坚持"大客户营销"战略、成效显著 3.1.1 风光储源侧下游持续扩容,数据中心等用电侧增速明显 3.1.2 公司坚持"大客户营销"战略,网外市场开拓成效显著 3.2 全球变压器和高压开关高景气 ...