Market Performance - The three major US stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones rising by 0.04% to 44,938.31 points, while the S&P 500 fell by 0.24% to 6,395.78 points, marking its fourth consecutive decline, and the Nasdaq dropped by 0.67% to 21,172.86 points [4][5][6] - Large technology stocks experienced a widespread decline, with the Wande American Technology Seven Giants Index falling by 1.07% [8] Sector Highlights - Travelers Group led the Dow with a 2.06% increase, followed by Walmart at 1.27% and Caterpillar at 1.06% [5][6] - In the technology sector, Apple fell by 1.97%, Amazon by 1.84%, and Tesla by 1.64%, leading the decline among the major tech companies [8][9] Chinese Stocks - Chinese stocks showed a slight increase against the market trend, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rising by 0.33% and the Wande Chinese Technology Leaders Index up by 0.01% [10][11] - Notable gainers included Zhengye Biology, which surged by 24.87%, and NEXT Technology, which rose by 12.62% [12] Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes - The Federal Reserve released the minutes from the July 29-30 meeting, indicating that nearly all decision-makers supported maintaining interest rates without cuts, with only two dissenting [15][16] - Discussions highlighted that overall inflation remains slightly above the 2% target, with concerns about the impact of tariffs on inflation trends [18] - The labor market was noted to be close to full employment, with low unemployment rates, although some indicators suggested potential weakness in labor demand [19] Economic Outlook - Participants expressed concerns about economic uncertainty, with risks related to inflation and employment being emphasized [19][21] - The Fed's monetary policy is expected to remain data-driven, with a focus on the impacts of tariffs on economic activity and inflation [22] Political Commentary - Former President Trump called for the resignation of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, citing concerns over her financial history and its implications for her role [23][24]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The LPR quote remained unchanged in August, and the monetary policy continued with a moderately loose tone. The signal of overall loosening was still unclear, which was in line with market expectations. Although the bond market was still disturbed by the risk appetite of the stock market in the short term, its overall downward space was limited supported by the fundamentals and capital situation [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - China's CPI (monthly) had a 0.40% month - on - month increase and 0.00% year - on - year change; PPI (monthly) had a - 0.20% month - on - month change and - 3.60% year - on - year change [9]. - Social financing scale was 431.26 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 1.04 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.24%. M2 year - on - year growth was 8.80%, up 0.50% month - on - month with a growth rate of 6.02%. Manufacturing PMI was 49.30%, down 0.40% month - on - month with a decline rate of 0.80% [9]. - The US dollar index was 98.23, down 0.04 with a decline rate of 0.04%. The US dollar against the offshore RMB was 7.1865, up 0.003 with a growth rate of 0.04%. SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.53, up 0.02 with a growth rate of 1.12%. DR007 was 1.57, up 0.02 with a growth rate of 1.48%. R007 was 1.56, down 0.12 with a decline rate of 7.38%. The 3 - month interbank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.55, up 0.00 with a decline rate of 0.01%. The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.08, up 0.01 with a decline rate of 0.01% [10]. II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - The section includes figures such as the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts of treasury bond futures, the price change rate of each treasury bond futures variety, the precipitation fund trend of each treasury bond futures variety, the position ratio of each treasury bond futures variety, the net position ratio of the top 20 in each treasury bond futures variety, the long - short position ratio of the top 20 in each treasury bond futures variety, the spread between national development bonds and treasury bonds, and the issuance of treasury bonds [14][16][21]. III. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - It includes figures such as the Shibor interest rate trend, the maturity yield trend of interbank certificates of deposit (AAA), the transaction statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and the issuance of local bonds [27][28]. IV. Spread Overview - It includes figures such as the inter - period spread trend of each treasury bond futures variety, the spread between the spot bond term spread and the futures cross - variety spread [31][38][40]. V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - It includes figures such as the implied interest rate of the TS main contract and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funds interest rate, the basis trend of the TS main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the TS main contract in the past three years [42][52]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - It includes figures such as the implied interest rate of the TF main contract and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funds interest rate, the basis trend of the TF main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the TF main contract in the past three years [51][56]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - It includes figures such as the implied interest rate of the T main contract and the，treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the T main contract and the funds interest rate, the basis trend of the T main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the T main contract in the past three years [59][62]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - It includes figures such as the implied interest rate of the TL main contract and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funds interest rate, the basis trend of the TL main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the TL main contract in the past three years [67][72]. Market Analysis Macro Aspect - The Politburo meeting in July proposed to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, manage the disorderly competition of enterprises in accordance with laws and regulations, resolve local government debt risks actively and steadily, and prohibit the addition of implicit debts. On August 1, 2025, the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced that starting from August 8, 2025, the interest income from newly issued treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds would be subject to value - added tax. Previously issued bonds would still be exempt until maturity. On August 19, the Ministry of Finance announced market - making support operations to increase the supply of scarce bond types [1]. - In July, the year - on - year change of CPI was flat [1]. Capital Aspect - In July 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of M1 and M2 rebounded to 5.6% and 8.8% respectively, and the gap narrowed to 3.2%, indicating abundant liquidity and increased activity of corporate current funds. However, the credit derivation efficiency was weak, and the medium - and long - term loans of residents and enterprises continued to shrink, with insufficient investment and consumption demand. The year - on - year growth of social financing stock was only 9%, mainly relying on government bond issuance to add leverage. The medium - and long - term financing demand of enterprises remained sluggish, and a large amount of funds flowed to non - bank institutions [2]. - On August 20, 2025, the central bank conducted 616 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% through quantity tender [2]. - The main term repurchase interest rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.473%, 1.534%, 1.596%, and 1.532% respectively, and the repurchase interest rates had recently rebounded [2]. Market Aspect - On August 20, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.33 yuan, 105.43 yuan, 107.86 yuan, and 116.05 yuan respectively. The price change rates were 0.00%, - 0.10%, - 0.18%, and - 0.35% respectively [3]. - The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL was 0.024 yuan, 0.137 yuan, 0.069 yuan, and 0.589 yuan respectively [3]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: As the repurchase interest rate rebounded and the treasury bond futures prices fluctuated, it was recommended to short at high levels for the 2509 contract [4]. - **Arbitrage**: Pay attention to the decline of the basis of TF2509 [5]. - **Hedging**: There was medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side investors could use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - On August 20, the central bank conducted 616 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net daily injection of 497.5 billion yuan. The new - period LPR remained unchanged for three consecutive months. The central bank's monetary policy continues the loose thinking, which supports short - term Treasury bond futures prices, but the stock - bond seesaw effect will continue, and bond prices may continue to weaken. The cross - variety spread may also widen due to the resumption of VAT collection on government and financial bonds [3] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures prices generally declined. For example, the T2509 contract fell 0.19%, and the trading volume and open interest of some contracts changed. The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main Treasury bond futures contracts was at a low level, with no arbitrage opportunities [2] Short - term Market Interest Rates - On the previous trading day, short - term market interest rates generally increased. SHIBOR 7 - day rate rose 1.7bp, DR007 rate rose 1.94bp, and GC007 rate rose 2.5bp [2] Spot Market - On the previous trading day, the yields of key - term Chinese Treasury bonds varied. The 10Y Treasury bond yield rose 1.7bp to 1.79%, and the long - short (10 - 2) Treasury bond yield spread was 35.86bp [2] Overseas Market - On the previous trading day, the 10Y US Treasury bond yield decreased by 1bp, the 10Y German Treasury bond yield decreased by 4bp, and the 10Y Japanese Treasury bond yield increased by 1.4bp [2] Macroeconomic News - The central bank carried out large - scale reverse repurchase operations, and the new - period LPR remained unchanged. The People's Bank of China Shanghai Head Office put forward work requirements. The State Council Office forwarded the guidance on standardizing PPP projects. The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that most policymakers supported not cutting interest rates, and the UK's inflation accelerated [3] Industry Information - On August 20, most money - market interest rates increased. US Treasury bond yields mostly declined. The bond market was affected by multiple factors such as macro - news, economic data, and central bank operations [3]

会议纪要显示，几乎所有的官员都支持维持利率不变，支持派认为，在关税政策对通胀的传导路径尚未明晰前，货币政策应保持观望姿态，而反对派则主张 应提前应对潜在的经济下行风险。两方的分歧导致了7月非农就业数据被大幅下修至11.4万，远低于原来的的20.6万，失业率更是提高到4.3%。 dbg markets盾博发现周四公布的美联储7月政策会议纪要表明了在白宫持续施压降息的下，FOMC以16:2的投票结果决定将基准利率在4.25%-4.5%。 美联储理事沃勒与鲍曼指出，关税引发的价格波动具有一次性特征，不应该成为影响货币政策的主要因素。沃勒更是表示当前通胀水平已接近美联储2%目 标，如果继续维持限制性政策可能加剧经济硬着陆风险。 此次会议纪要首次明确提及"政治压力"对决策的影响。自特朗普政府上台以来，白宫对美联储的干预呈现系统化特征：从要求理事库克辞职到暗示鲍威尔涉 嫌欺诈，从公开质疑美联储独立性到直接施压降息。7月11日，一名政府官员甚至发布声明宣称"鲍威尔辞职迫在眉睫"，尽管随后被证明是空穴来风，但此 类事件已严重损害美联储决策的客观性。 继拜登任命的理事库格勒辞职后，特朗普迅速提名白宫经济顾问史蒂芬·米兰。市场普 ...

一样的行情，不一样的指导，不一样的人生。新手的特点就是不懂技术，盲目进场。他们每次交易只考虑一个问题：认为只要预判了市场涨跌就可以去做这 笔交易。这种重方向、轻位置的做法使得交易者一败涂地。其实，顺势而为的"势"跟"方向"是有很大差别的，因为市场的运动方向呈现震荡的形态运行，而 市场的趋势往往是全局性的。在我这里，我能做的是帮你合理的把控仓位，利用支撑和阻力位下单，让每一单有理可依，有迹可循。买卖点位不应该是随意 进场，请对自己的资金负责。如果你对行情真的无法把握，可以前来找到我，多一个分析师对你来说没有任何损失，永远记住一句话，专业的人做专业的 事，一切实战只为盈利，合作只为双赢。 黄金最新行情趋势分析： 黄金消息面解析：周三（8月20日）美联储将发布上一次货币政策会议纪要；周五，美联储主席鲍威尔将在杰克逊霍尔经济研讨会上发表主旨演讲。市场期 待从中获取明确的货币政策信号，尤其是在8月初非农就业数据意外疲软及上周生产者价格指数（PPI）显示通胀回升后，投资者急需厘清美联储的利率路 径。专家分析指出，会议纪要或暴露美联储内部政策分歧，而鲍威尔的讲话可能为降息预期提供关键线索，进而影响黄金价格走势。美联储会议纪 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The non - US market will see an inflow of global copper resources in the second half of the year, and the price center of Shanghai copper is expected to rise in the next stage [4]. - Zinc shows a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand, and it is advisable to consider shorting on rallies in the medium - term [5]. - Aluminum prices may be affected by the easing of the Russia - Ukraine relationship, and it is recommended to hold short positions cautiously [6]. - Tin has a pattern of weak supply and demand, and a high - selling and low - buying strategy can be adopted [7]. - Lead prices are weak, and a short - term long - at - low strategy can be considered [8]. - Nickel and stainless steel are in a situation of overall supply surplus, and shorting on rallies can be considered in the medium - term [9]. Group 3: Summary by Directory First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operation Logic and Investment Suggestions - **Macro Logic**: The non - ferrous sector continues to fluctuate. The market is in a state of strong expectations but weak reality. China will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, and the geopolitical situation and US interest rate cut expectations are also influencing factors [12]. - **Investment Suggestions**: Different investment strategies are proposed for various non - ferrous metals such as copper, zinc, aluminum, tin, lead, nickel, and stainless steel, including price ranges, trading strategies, and recommended intensities [14][15][16]. Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - The closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals futures are presented, including copper, zinc, aluminum, etc. [17] Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - The net long - short positions, changes in net long and short positions, and influencing factors of various non - ferrous metals are analyzed [19] Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - The spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals are provided, such as copper, zinc, aluminum, etc. [20][22] Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - For different non - ferrous metals, relevant industry chain data graphs are presented, including inventory changes, processing fees, and price relationships [24][28][31] Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - For different non - ferrous metals, relevant arbitrage data graphs are presented, such as the ratio of domestic and foreign prices, basis, and spreads [60][62][65] Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options - For different non - ferrous metals, relevant option data graphs are presented, including historical volatility, implied volatility, and trading volume and open interest [78][80][83]

【环球网财经综合报道】8月20日，中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布最新一期贷款市场报价利率（LPR）。其中，1年期LPR为3.0%，5年期 以上LPR为3.5%，两个期限品种均与上月持平，连续三个月未作调整。 市场普遍认为，此次LPR报价保持稳定符合预期。有分析师表示，作为LPR定价基础的政策利率——7天期逆回购操作利率近期维持不变，同时受市场预期 变化等因素影响，近期市场利率有所上行。此外，当前商业银行净息差已处于历史低位，在此背景下，报价行缺乏主动下调LPR加点幅度的动力。 对于下一阶段货币政策走向，有业内人士分析认为，当前物价水平偏低，货币政策适度宽松仍有空间。下半年央行可能实施新一轮降息降准，进而带动1年 期和5年期以上LPR同步下调。此外，为进一步稳楼市，也可能通过单独引导5年期以上LPR下行，推动居民房贷利率更大幅度下调。 ...

他补充说，与此同时，美国就业市场正闪烁着开始加速恶化的迹象。美国7月份新增的就业岗位远少于 预期，而5月和6月的就业增长数据也被集体下修了25.8万个。 所有目光都聚焦鲍威尔 埃里安说，鲍威尔近年来的货币政策方法与过去的美联储主席有所不同。从80年代末到21世纪初担任美 联储主席的格林斯潘，在90年代通胀走高时没有加息，部分原因是他看到了美国生产力的蓬勃发展，埃 里安说，这"绝对是"正确的决定。 埃里安说，大金融危机前几年接管美联储的伯南克，在21世纪初通胀上升时也放慢了加息步伐，因为他 看到了经济正在放缓。他补充道，"这（鲍威尔）是第一位几乎完全是后视的美联储主席。而这正是问 题所在。" 自上台以来，特朗普几乎每周都在批评美联储的负责人，但一位顶级经济学家认为，特朗普最喜欢用来 描述鲍威尔的一个形容词可能是有道理的："为时已晚。" 安联集团的首席经济顾问穆罕默德·埃里安（Mohamed El-Erian）认为，鲍威尔可能在降息问题上行动得 太晚了的这个想法，是可信的。 在周三接受采访时，近年来经常警告衰退风险的埃里安表示，他认为美联储上个月就应该降息了。 "现在我们开始看到过度依赖数据的问题了，"埃里安在谈 ...

在会议上，官员们对就业形势可能恶化表示担忧，但大多数人认为，通胀率上升的风险是"这两种 风险中更大的一个"。 自那次会议以来，经济数据进一步强化了所谓"鸽派"的观点，即由于5月和6月的就业增长数据被下 调，他们主张降息。对经济数据的不同解读在随后的几周内使利率制定者意见分歧加剧。 上月曾投票反对按兵不动的美联储理事沃勒和鲍曼认为，官员们不应基于关税引发的价格上涨而做 出决策，因为此类价格上涨不太可能再次发生。 SHMET 网讯：根据北京时间周四凌晨公布的美联储政策会议纪要，尽管有两名官员反对并主张降 息，但美联储上月决定维持利率不变的决定仍获得广泛支持。 会议记录显示，"几乎所有"官员支持该决定，这意味着除两名反对的官员外，其余16名参与的官员 均表示支持。 这一决定是在白宫对美联储主席鲍威尔施加了强烈政治压力要求其降息之后做出的。官员们在权衡 进口商、零售商和消费者将如何分担进口关税上涨的成本后，决定将基准政策利率维持在4.25%至4.5% 的区间内。 会议纪要如往常一样在会议三周后发布，其中显示官员们对何时能够确信进口成本上升不会引发更 广泛、持续的物价上涨存在分歧。部分官员表示"未来数月将能获得大量信息 ...

Core Viewpoint - The chief economist and director of the research institute, Wen Bin, indicates that recent data shows a certain setback in the recovery of the real economy since July, necessitating continued macro policy support [1] Economic Indicators - Several indicators since July have shown a decline in retail sales growth, ongoing pressure on real estate investment, and a need for increased credit demand [1] - External demand faces uncertainties that have not yet been fully resolved, suggesting the need for further macroeconomic policy adjustments [1] Policy Recommendations - The necessity for maintaining a stable and continuous policy approach is emphasized, with monetary policy expected to remain supportive [1] - Wen Bin suggests that structural policies can more effectively target issues, avoid fund misallocation, and enhance the activation of deposits [1] Interest Rate Outlook - The timing for potential further reductions in reserve requirement ratios (RRR) and interest rates may be postponed, along with the timing for adjustments to the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [1]