格隆汇2月11日｜Gammaroad Capital Partners首席投资官Jordan Rizzuto表示，潜在的就业形势似乎比预 期的要强劲，甚至可能比美国联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）近期评估和描述的情况更为乐观。如果这 些数据在后续月份的修订中得以保持，对货币政策的影响意味着我们距离中性利率比市场先前定价的更 近。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall trend of domestic interest rate policy remains accommodative, but the pace is relatively steady, requiring a comprehensive consideration of both internal and external environments and policy coordination [1][3]. Group 1: Policy and Economic Outlook - The central bank emphasizes the importance of maintaining reasonable liquidity (M2) and nurturing stable expectations (exchange rate) while gradually repairing balance sheets in the capital market as key policy objectives [1][3]. - The central bank acknowledges increased external uncertainties and the resilience of the domestic economy, highlighting that despite the "strong supply and weak demand" issue, the long-term positive support conditions and basic trends for the economy remain unchanged [1][2]. Group 2: Domestic Demand and Policy Coordination - The policy framework focuses on strengthening domestic demand, with an emphasis on balancing total supply and demand, which is expected to consolidate and expand the positive economic momentum [2]. - The central bank is prioritizing the effectiveness of policy implementation over the dosage, as seen in the structural interest rate cuts in January, with future targeted easing expected to support specific sectors such as domestic demand, technology innovation, and small and micro enterprises [2]. Group 3: Credit and Financial Support - Credit allocation continues to focus on five key areas to assist economic transformation and upgrading, including optimizing loans for technological innovation, promoting green finance standards, enhancing credit systems for small and medium enterprises, supporting the elderly care economy, and implementing financial support for consumer policies [2]. - The central bank has innovatively introduced a one-time credit repair policy to support individuals in rebuilding credit efficiently, which aids in the gradual improvement of private sector credit expansion and consumer demand [2].

锰硅硅铁产业日报 2026/2/11 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | SM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,824.00 | +6.00↑ SF主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,576.00 | -4.00↓ | | | SM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 565,620.00 | -16119.00↓ SF期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 344,953.00 | -21240.00↓ | | | 锰硅前20名净持仓（日，手） | -27,363.00 | +10234.00↑ 硅铁前20名净持仓（日，手） | -17,823.00 | +1107.00↑ | | | SM5-3月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 38.00 | -2.00↓ SF4-3月合约价差（日，元/吨） | -14.00 | +4.00↑ | | | SM 仓单（日，张） | 39,700.00 | +300.00↑ SF 仓单（日，张） | 8,184.00 | 0.00 | | | 贵州锰硅 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the benchmark interest rate until the end of Powell's term in May, but a rate cut is anticipated in June, raising concerns about the potential for overly loose policies under Kevin Warsh's leadership [1][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Outlook - Over 70% of economists are worried that the independence of the Federal Reserve will be significantly compromised after Powell's departure [1][4]. - Approximately 75 out of 101 economists predict that the Federal Reserve will keep the federal funds rate unchanged for the second consecutive meeting next month, an increase from 58% in the previous month [5][6]. - Nearly 60% of economists believe that interest rates will drop to the range of 3.25%-3.50% by the end of the next quarter, with rate cuts most likely occurring in June [2][5]. Group 2: Economic Growth and Inflation Predictions - The median forecast indicates that the U.S. economic growth rate for this year is expected to be between 2% and 2.4%, higher than the Fed's estimate of 1.8% for non-inflationary growth [2][5]. - Predictions show that the annualized growth rate for the fourth quarter of 2025 will slow to 2.9%, down from 4.4% in the third quarter [2][5]. - The average inflation level for this year is expected to be significantly above the Fed's 2% target [2][5]. Group 3: Kevin Warsh's Policy Implications - Almost all economists (49 out of 53) believe that Warsh is more likely to implement overly loose rather than tight policies [3][7]. - There is uncertainty regarding whether Warsh will push for one or two rate cuts based on economic developments or if he will advocate for more substantial cuts [3][7]. - Despite some predictions indicating that the unemployment rate will stabilize around 4.5%, this does not support the necessity for multiple rate cuts [8].

数据显示，今年第四季度薪酬预计将同比上涨2.7%，高于第三季度的2.6%。尽管这一增速远低于2024 年逾5%的峰值，但仍强于上半年的预测值。 欧洲央行在一份声明中表示："年内薪资路径的上升，与2024年发放但2025年未发放的大额一次性付款 所产生的机械性下行效应逐步消散有关。这些机械性影响预计将在2026年内基本消失。" 智通财经APP获悉，欧洲央行周三发布的薪资追踪指标显示，欧元区薪资增长预计将在下半年加快步 伐，这支持了央行关于利率可以保持稳定的判断。 自去年6月以来一直维持利率不变的欧洲央行，将薪资列为通胀上行的潜在风险，主要是由于其对服务 业价格具有传导影响。 上周四，欧洲央行如期维持利率不变，并未释放下一步政策走向的明确信号，强化了市场对货币政策在 一段时间内保持稳定的预期。当前欧元区经济增长相对稳健、通胀接近目标水平，为政策"观望"提供了 空间。 拉加德称目前通胀风险"总体均衡"。一方面，能源价格持续上行、全球供应链进一步碎片化、关键原材 料供应受限、以及国防和基础设施支出计划，都可能在中期推高通胀;另一方面，关税可能削弱欧元区 出口需求，产能过剩国家扩大对欧出口，以及欧元走强和金融市场波动加 ...

固定收益 | 证券研究报告 — 点评报告 2026 年 2 月 11 日 错月影响读数、通胀平稳恢复 2026 年 1 月通胀数据点评 考虑春节错月效应和基期轮换，消费通胀仍在平稳恢复，继续关注消费需求 对物价的支撑作用。 证券分析师：肖成哲 相关研究报告 《新旧动能与利率定价》20240407 《特朗普交易：预期与预期之外》20241124 《低通胀惯性仍是主要矛盾》20250105 《如何看待美国通胀形势》20250119 《美国的赤字、储蓄率与利率》20250216 《美国经济：失速还是滞胀？》20250330 《美债成为贸易摩擦焦点》20250413 《贸易摩擦将迎关键数据》20250427 《财政、司法、货币、贸易纠缠中的关税摩擦》 20250701 《从通胀形势看美联储"换帅"可能性》 20250720 《美国就业数据爆冷、财政变数增加》20250908 《如何看长期收益率后续走势》20251013 《关税辩论、就业降温、美债震荡》20251110 《AI 效益与美债》20251123 《债市测试"平衡边界"》20251207 《分歧"变小"、压力变大——美联储 12 月会 议点评》2025121 ...

Monetary Policy Insights - The central bank emphasizes coordination between monetary and fiscal policies to boost domestic demand, particularly through structural monetary policy tools targeting key areas like technology innovation and small and medium enterprises[1] - The weighted average loan rate (WALR) decreased by 10 basis points to 3.15% in Q4 2025, with general loans dropping by 12 basis points to 3.55%[2] - Social financing growth rate slightly declined from 8.7% at the end of Q3 to 8.3% in Q4 2025, reflecting weaker private sector financing demand[2] Economic Outlook - The central bank perceives short-term resilience in the global economy, but acknowledges increasing uncertainties, particularly in global trade and financial market volatility[2] - Domestic economic conditions are expected to stabilize and improve, supported by strong policy backing and the ongoing development of a unified national market[2] - The GDP for 2025 is projected at 140.2 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.0%[5] Policy Implementation - The central bank plans to utilize various policy tools flexibly, including potential rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio (RRR) reductions, particularly during the upcoming Two Sessions[3] - Emphasis on enhancing financial support for key sectors such as technology innovation and consumer spending, with a focus on green finance initiatives[3] - The central bank aims to maintain liquidity and relatively loose social financing conditions to support balanced credit distribution and low financing costs[3]

本篇评级为★★★，主要围绕以下内容展开： 如有疑问请以音频内容为准，添加妙投小虎哥微信miaotou515，入群有机会与董小姐进一步交流。 新闻解读评级说明：五星重磅，四星重要，三星级以下大家选择听。 1、成交量跌破两万亿，值得担心吗？ 今天国内市场没有重大事件发生，整体表现基本稳定——这在春节前属于常态。市场成交趋于谨慎，资 金兴致缺缺，沪深两市成交量已下滑至2万亿元以下，最终定格在1.98万亿元。 个人认为，这些数据或三大指数短期内的小幅回调，并不意味着市场正在走下坡路，而恰恰是节前的正 常现象。如果我们从几条核心逻辑线来看，市场的支撑力并未减弱。 首先看政策层面。春节前通常不会出台重大新政策，这是惯例。唯一值得关注的是央行今日发布的 《2025年第四季度货币政策执行报告》。报告中的表述基本符合市场预期，并未明确提及近期有降准或 降息的必要性。 本文为妙投付费内容，上述仅为摘要，购买本专栏即可解锁完整内容。新用户可免费领本专栏7天阅读 体验机会，在妙投APP-我的-权益兑换 输入"妙投888"即可领取。 1、成交量跌破两万亿，值得担心吗？ 2、通胀数据发布，价格恢复透暖意 3、紧盯AI，等待节后资金回流 ...

一、中国宏观经济金融展望 2025 年，国民经济保持稳中有进态势，高质量发展取得新成效， 现代产业体系建设持续推进，改革开放迈出新步伐，民生保障更加有 力，经济 社会发展主要目标圆满实现，"十四五"胜利收官。全年国 内生产总值 （ GDP ） 同比增长 5% ，经济总量突破 140 万亿元。2026 年经济持续稳 中向好有条件、有支撑。 一是经济平稳发展的基础不断夯实。 "十四五"时期，经济总量稳步增长，粮食产量连 续两年站稳 1.4 万亿斤的台阶，制造业增加值连续 16 年稳 居世界首位，我国成为 150 多个国家和地区的主要贸易伙伴，经济底盘更实、抗风险能力更强。 2025 年 12 月，制造业采购经理指数（ PMI ） 和非制造业商业活动指数双双重回扩张区间，经济稳中向好的积极因素不断积累。 二是新动能持续壮大。 2025 年，我国研发投入强度达到 2.8% ，首次超过 OECD 国家平均水平，创新指数排名进入全球前十，国际 专利申请量 连续 6 年位居全球第一，高技术制造业增加值占规模以上工业增加值比重达到 17.1% 。人工智能等新一代信息技术蓬勃发展，银发经济、冰雪 经济等持续升温，不断激发经济活 ...

美国劳工统计局（BLS）将于今晚发布延迟的1月非农报告，同时进行年度基准修正和方法论更新。市场预计此次修正将抹去约100万个就业岗位，这是美国就 业统计史上规模最大的下修之一。 据彭博经济学家Anna Wong估算，在未经季节性调整的基础上，就业人数将减少302.5万。但由于BLS将重新估算季节性调整因子以反映基准修正和Birth- Death模型更新，这种不确定性可能使就业数据在任一方向上波动4万。 此外，由于政府关闭造成的中断，BLS已将通常在1月就业报告中发布的年度人口控制调整推迟至下月的2月报告。Wong预计该调整将使人口水平至少减少70 万，这意味着下月将出现进一步的负向修正。 根据BLS初步估计， 2024年4月至2025年3月期间的就业增长将下修75万至90万个岗位。此外，BLS还将更新2025年4月至12月期间的企业出生-死亡预测数 据，预计将再减少50万至70万个岗位。这意味着截至2025年12月的非农就业数据中，多达100万个就业岗位实际上从未存在。 周三，据ZeroHedge及相关分析指出，此次修正将显著改变美国劳动力市场的实际状况。修正后的数据将显示，劳动力市场早在2024年中期就已跌 ...