点击小程序查看报告原文 资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部 8月新增社融增速下行，货币增速上升幅度放缓。 8月新增社融2.57万亿元，同比少增4630亿元，存量社融增速从7月的9.0%下降到8.8%，这也 是社融同比增速自2024年11月以来第一次出现下行（图表1）。货币供应方面，8月M2同比增速为8.8%，持平于7月，终止了连续4个月的改善 势头（图表2）。8月M1同比增速从7月的5.6%上升到6.0%（图表3），延续上升势头，但同比增速的增加幅度明显放缓。 图表1：8月社融同比增速下行，这是自2024年10月后首次 信贷需求总体仍然偏弱，贷款利率低位震荡。 8月新增企业短期贷款700亿元，在去年低基数影响下同比多增2600亿元，企业中长期贷款、居 民短期贷款、居民中长期贷款分别同比少增200亿元、611亿元、1000亿元，反映整体信贷需求仍然较弱（图表4）。个人住房贷款利率持平于 3.1%的历史低位（图表5），企业贷款利率小幅下降0.1个百分点至3.1%（图表6）。 图表4：8月社融主要分项新增额的同比变化 资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部 图表3：8月M1同比增速升至6.0%，但增速上升势头放缓 资料 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recent financial data released by the People's Bank of China, indicating a significant increase in social financing and loans, driven by government and corporate bonds, alongside the impact of monetary policy adjustments such as interest rate cuts [1][3][4]. Group 1: Social Financing and Loan Growth - In May, the social financing increment reached 2.29 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 224.7 billion yuan, with the total social financing stock growing by 8.7% year-on-year [3]. - Government bonds saw a net financing of 1.46 trillion yuan in May, with local governments issuing 443.2 billion yuan in new special bonds, marking a new high for the year [3]. - Corporate bond financing exceeded 140 billion yuan in May, with a decline in the cost of issuing corporate bonds, encouraging companies to increase their bond financing [3][4]. Group 2: Impact of Monetary Policy - The recent interest rate cuts have supported loan demand, with the balance of RMB loans growing by 7.1% year-on-year by the end of May [4]. - The average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans was approximately 3.2%, down about 50 basis points from the previous year, while personal housing loans averaged 3.1%, down about 55 basis points [4]. Group 3: Bond Financing as an Alternative - The increase in government and corporate bond financing has created a substitution effect for bank loans, with bonds and loans together accounting for nearly 90% of social financing [6][8]. - The issuance of replacement bonds has allowed local governments to repay bank loans, potentially impacting overall credit volume [6]. Group 4: Deposit and Loan Growth Discrepancies - In May, new RMB deposits increased significantly by 2.18 trillion yuan, contrasting with a slight decline in new loans [10]. - The differences in deposit and loan growth are attributed to the diversification of financial institutions' assets and changes in financing structures [11][12]. Group 5: Increase in "Active Money" - By the end of May, the narrow money supply (M1) grew by 2.3%, indicating a rise in "active money" which reflects improved market confidence and economic activity [14][15].

Core Insights - The financial aggregate indicators have exceeded the nominal economic growth rate by a historically high margin and have sustained this for a considerable duration [1] Financial Data Summary - In May, the new social financing increased by 2.29 trillion yuan, which is 224.7 billion yuan more than the same month last year [1] - The new RMB loans amounted to nearly 620 billion yuan in May [1] - By the end of May, the broad money supply (M2) grew by 7.9% year-on-year, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, but 0.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year [1] Economic Growth Context - In previous years, China's nominal economic growth rate was close to 10%, with social financing and loan growth also maintaining slightly above 10%, indicating a basic match between the two [1] - Recently, the macroeconomic environment has shifted to a medium-to-high growth phase, with financial aggregates continuing to grow at over 8%, exceeding the nominal economic growth rate by approximately 4 percentage points [1]