值得注意的是，在黄金价格开启高位震荡行情之际，白银价格近期持续走高，引发市场关 注。数据显示，本周，现货白银价格累计上涨超9%，一度站上36美元/盎司，为2012年2 月以来首次。 金价高位震荡，白银狂飙。美东时间6月6日，现货黄金价格下跌超过1.2%，收报3309.47 美元/盎司。而在6月7日，国内部分品牌金饰的金价也回到了每克1000元之下。 美国圣路易斯联邦储备银行行长阿尔韦托·穆萨莱姆日前接受英国《金融时报》采访时说， 美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的关税政策可能导致美国通货膨胀率持续居高。他警告说，直到今 年夏天结束，美国政策制定者都将面临经济不确定性。穆萨莱姆说，假如美国贸易和财政政 策的不确定性能于"7月消散"，美联储才可能筹备9月降息。 有分析人士表示，这种分化主要由金银比修复逻辑、白银特有属性及市场情绪共振驱动所 致。最近一段时间，金银价格比一度升至1比100，相当于1盎司黄金可以换100盎司白银， 已经远远高于历史均值，这一极端比值暗示要么白银被严重低估，要么黄金被严重高估。此 外，从白银的波动率来看，由于白银的市场规模仅为黄金的十分之一，意味着相当的资金流 入往往会引发白银价格更大的波动。 有 ...

5日，现货白银一度涨超4.5%，突破36美元/盎司整数关口，创下2012年2月以来最高水平，收报35.63美 元/盎司。今年以来，现货白银累计涨幅约24%。COMEX白银价格一度突破36美元/盎司，涨逾4%。据 Wind数据，现货黄金年初至今涨幅超28%。 截至6日发稿前，现货白银最高报36.174美元/盎司，日内涨1.5%；COMEX白银最高触及36.355美元/盎 司，日内涨1.54%。 图片来自Wind 中国外汇投资研究院研究总监李钢对中新经纬表示，这一轮的白银价格上涨主要还是金银比的回归，此 前黄金价格极端上涨的时候，白银价格并没有出现跟随性的上涨，这一轮白银价格上涨是针对此前黄金 价格上涨的补涨走势。 据Wind数据，当前金银比接近95。今年4月22日，国际黄金一度触及3500美元/盎司，彼时金银比曾达到 106。 国泰君安期货在6月6日的盘前观点中指出，目前白银的上涨难言结束，在下一个风险事件到来破除白银 价格趋势前，白银可能维持偏强态势，继续修复比价。 "投资白银的时候应该注意黄金和白银走势的错位。黄金价格在全球地缘风险不稳定之际的上涨可能是 白银价格上涨的带动性因素，但关税对全球经济的影响仍需 ...

Group 1 - The recent phone call between the two national leaders had a minimal impact on the capital market, with A50 futures only moving from -0.13% to 0.24%, a mere 0.37 percentage points [1] - The A-share market continues to experience narrow fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing a four-day cumulative increase of only 1.13%, struggling to surpass the 3400-point mark [3] - Silver has seen significant gains, with the "Guotou Silver LOF" rising by 4.68% today, totaling an 8.2% increase over recent days, while gold ETFs only increased by 1.52% [5] Group 2 - The supply shortage is a key factor driving the rise in silver prices, with the World Platinum Investment Council predicting a 30-ton shortage in the platinum market for 2025, and silver also facing supply issues [6] - The "gold-silver ratio" is undergoing a correction, currently at 92.7, indicating that silver may offer better value compared to gold at this time [7] - There are limited investment options for silver, with the "Guotou Silver LOF" underperforming its benchmark, and trading silver futures requiring significant capital, making it less accessible for small investors [9] Group 3 - The new consumption sector appears to be facing challenges, with stocks like "Mizuki Ice City" and "Old Peking Gold" experiencing significant declines [11] - The market capitalization of new consumption companies has reached levels that seem unreasonable, with "Bubble Mart" surpassing the combined market cap of major toy companies [13] - Traditional consumption sectors, such as liquor, are also struggling, with the liquor index showing a maximum drawdown of 57.76%, comparable to previous downturns [29] Group 4 - Public fund holdings in the liquor sector have decreased significantly, with the proportion dropping from 8.48% in Q4 2020 to 3.71% in Q1 2023, indicating a shift in investment sentiment [16][17] - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the liquor index is 18.87, which is at a level similar to the end of 2018, but the sustainability of this valuation is questioned due to potential future earnings stagnation [23][31] - The liquor index has maintained a dividend yield of 4.2%, suggesting that even with a significant price drop, the yield could remain attractive, raising questions about the likelihood of such a decline [31]

Market Overview - A-shares opened positively in the first trading week of June, with the Shanghai Composite Index approaching 3400 points and the Shenzhen Component Index showing support near 10,000 points [1] - The ChiNext Index stabilized above the 2000-point mark [1] - Margin trading saw a net purchase of over 10.2 billion yuan, with a total margin balance of 1.8 trillion yuan, marking a new high in nearly two weeks [1] Sector Performance - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector received over 2.4 billion yuan in net purchases, while the computer, automotive, and machinery equipment sectors each saw net purchases exceeding 1 billion yuan [1] - Non-bank financials experienced a net sell-off of over 1.1 billion yuan, with slight net selling in electronics, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and communications sectors [1] - Major funds saw a net inflow of over 10 billion yuan in sectors like pharmaceuticals, computers, basic chemicals, and non-ferrous metals, while the automotive sector faced a net outflow exceeding 2.9 billion yuan [1] Precious Metals Market - International silver prices surged recently, reaching a 13-year high, with domestic silver futures also breaking multiple key levels, closing at 8855 yuan per kilogram [2] - The gold-silver ratio has risen to approximately 1:100, significantly above the historical average, indicating a high probability of silver price increases when the ratio exceeds 1:80 [2] - The photovoltaic industry has become a key driver of silver demand, with industrial silver usage exceeding 40%, and the transition to N-type batteries increasing silver consumption by 40%-100% per unit [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global silver supply is expected to maintain a long-term shortage due to stagnant primary mineral growth and the accelerated penetration of N-type batteries [3] - The total global silver supply is projected to reach 31,700 tons in 2024, with a demand of 36,700 tons, resulting in a supply-demand gap of approximately 5,000 tons [2]

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have surged significantly, driven by geopolitical tensions and industrial demand, with recent developments indicating a potential for further price increases in the coming years [2][3][6]. Group 1: Price Movements and Market Reactions - On June 5, silver prices experienced a sharp increase, with London silver reaching $36.053 per ounce, marking the highest level since February 2012 [3]. - The announcement by the Trump administration to raise tariffs on steel and aluminum has led to heightened speculation that similar measures may be applied to other metals, including silver, thus increasing its demand as a safe-haven asset [4][5]. - Silver futures saw a significant increase in long positions, with total holdings rising by $2.8 billion, the largest two-day increase in the past year [5]. Group 2: Economic Factors Influencing Demand - The recent economic uncertainty, highlighted by a contraction in U.S. service sector activity and slowing job growth, has led to expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which typically benefits non-yielding precious metals like silver [3][6]. - Industrial demand for silver remains strong, particularly in clean energy technologies, with the silver market facing a supply deficit for the fifth consecutive year, exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance [3][6][7]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Investment Considerations - Analysts predict that the price gap between silver and gold may narrow from the current 27 percentage points to 10-15 percentage points over the next 1-2 years, driven by various economic factors [6][7]. - The current gold-silver ratio is significantly higher than historical averages, suggesting that silver may be undervalued relative to gold, which could attract investors and drive prices higher [6][7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The gold price is in a high - level oscillation this week, while the silver price has skyrocketed continuously, and the gold - silver ratio at a high level has rapidly corrected. It is expected that the gold - silver ratio will continue to decline in the short term, and investors should focus on the opportunity for silver to catch up in price. The market's expectation for the non - farm data is weak, and investors are advised to pay attention to the possibility of data exceeding expectations and conduct risk management in advance. [9][11] - The short - term trend of precious metals is oscillating with a slight upward bias, showing a pattern of weak gold and strong silver. The medium - term trend is a high - level oscillation, and the long - term trend is a step - by - step upward movement. [9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Property Analysis 3.1.1. Safe - haven Attribute - The safe - haven sentiment during Trump's trade war has been realized. The leaders of China and the United States had a phone call, agreeing to hold a new round of talks as soon as possible and extend mutual visit invitations. However, there are still risks of escalation in geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, Russia - Ukraine, etc. [4] - The United States was downgraded by Moody's, completely leaving the top - tier AAA credit rating club. The demand for the $16 billion 20 - year bonds auctioned by the US Treasury was weak due to investors' concerns about the increasing US debt burden. The US debt scale has exceeded $36 trillion, and the deteriorating fiscal situation has intensified the market's doubts about the US dollar credit system. [4] 3.1.2. Monetary Attribute - The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and the overall employment data has weakened. The market has reignited the expectation of an earlier interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. After the number of layoffs and the ADP employment data, the latest number of initial jobless claims in the US last week reached a seven - month high, and the import decline in April set a record. [5] - The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected but hinted that its one - year easing cycle would pause after the inflation rate finally returned to the central bank's 2% target. Currently, the market expects the Federal Reserve to stabilize its next interest rate cut until September, and the expected total interest rate cut space in 2025 has dropped to around 50 basis points. [5] 3.1.3. Commodity Attribute - Although the consumption of gold jewelry is suppressed by high prices, the investment demand for gold bars and other products offsets some of the impact. Emerging market central banks, including the People's Bank of China, are implementing a "de - dollarization" strategy, which keeps the central bank's gold purchase demand at a high level. [5] - The CRB commodity index has faced pressure in its rebound from a low level, and the continuous appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic precious metal prices. The easing of the trade war is expected to promote the recovery of silver's industrial demand. [5] 3.1.4. Capital Flow - Recently, the CFTC managed funds have continuously reduced their net long positions in gold and continuously increased their net long positions in silver. In the domestic market, the net long positions in Shanghai gold have continuously increased, and the net long positions in Shanghai silver have remained at a high level. The world's largest gold ETF and silver ETF have ended their long - term downward trends and are slowly increasing their positions. [7] 3.2. Review of the Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Path from 2024 - 2025 - In 2024/5/1, the Federal Reserve maintained the interest rate unchanged, slowed down the pace of reducing the balance sheet from June 1st, and still expected inflation to decline gradually over time. [13] - In 2024/6/12, the Federal Reserve kept the interest rate policy unchanged, and the updated dot - plot significantly reduced the expected number of interest rate cuts for the year. [13] - In 2024/7/31, the Federal Reserve continued to keep the interest rate unchanged, confirmed progress in reducing inflation, and indicated that an interest rate cut might be an option in September. [13] - In 2024/9/19, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points, and the target range of the benchmark interest rate was expected to be further reduced by the end of the year and in subsequent years. [14] - In 2024/11/7, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the statement removed the expression about "gaining confidence in the fight against inflation". [14] - In 2024/12/19, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the dot - plot showed that it was expected to cut interest rates only twice by the end of 2025. [14] - In 2025/1/29, the Federal Reserve kept the interest rate unchanged for the first time since September 2024, and the policy statement removed the expression about "inflation making progress towards the target". [14] - In 2025/3/20, the Federal Reserve kept the interest rate unchanged, planned to slow down the pace of balance - sheet reduction from April 1st, and significantly lowered the economic growth forecast for 2025 while raising the inflation forecast. [14] - In 2025/5/7, the Federal Reserve kept the interest rate unchanged, stating that the uncertainty of the economic outlook had further increased, and the risks of rising unemployment and inflation had both increased. [14] 3.3. Support and Resistance Levels - The support level for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 755 - 760, and the resistance level is 790 - 800. [9] - The support level for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 8400 - 8430, and the resistance level is 9500 - 9530. [9]

新京报贝壳财经讯（记者朱玥怡）随着现货白银价格创下13年来新高，6月6日，有色金属板块走强，多 只白银概念股大涨，白银有色（601212.SH）、盛达资源（000603.SZ）、湖南白银（002716.SZ）涨 停，兴业银锡（000426.SZ）涨8.21%。 此轮白银涨势原因几何？后续会否复制黄金涨势？ "今天主要从事白银业务的公司股价普遍都有比较大的涨幅，应该是受白银期货和现货价格上涨联动效 应的影响。"6月6日，上市公司湖南白银的证券部工作人员向贝壳财经记者表示，此轮股价上涨更多是 有助于增强投资者信心，对公司业绩的实际影响并不大。 广发期货分析师叶倩宁认为，避险和工业属性驱动白银大涨。中美领导人通话缓和贸易冲突并加快谈判 进程使工业制造业乐观情绪增加，在光伏"抢装"和提前备库的情况下相关光伏新能源行业生产有望维持 高增长，欧洲各国的宽松财政和货币政策提振工业和投资需求，伦敦现货和中国等地区库存维持低位， 白银突破34.8美元的去年高位阻力后在资金的驱动下价格更具弹性，短期有望持续走高至38美元/盎司 附近。 编辑 岳彩周 校对 卢茜 国泰君安期货市场分析师张驰宁认为，此轮白银涨势背后核心的动力很可能来 ...

"白银处于2012年以来的最高水平，这当然引人关注，但白银是出了名的反复无常，它完全有能力暴涨 暴跌，"O'Connell说。"这不一定是一次虚假突破，但它现在已经严重超买，当白银出现这种情况时， 应一如既往地谨慎对待。" 根据道琼斯市场数据，Comex 7月交割的白银期货周四收于每盎司35.81美元，这是主力合约自2012年2 月28日以来的最高收盘价。今年迄今，白银价格已累计上涨约22%。 Sprott Asset Management的高级投资组合经理兼首席投资官Maria Smirnova在周四表示："这次突破已经 酝酿了一段时间，因为白银在近几个月曾数次尝试突破35美元大关，所以这次成功意义重大。如果这次 技术性突破能催化实物投资者的买盘，那么白银价格可能很快被推得更高，白银市场交投清淡，不需要 太大的购买活动就能推高价格。" 在白银价格飙升的同时，黄金价格在当天的交易中却录得下跌。不过，黄金今年迄今近28%的涨幅仍然 超过了白银。 然而，金银比已降至94附近。BullionVault研究总监Adrian Ash指出，与黄金在4月底触及当前历史高点 3500美元时所见的后疫情时期高点（超过100）相 ...

Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced narrow fluctuations, while the ChiNext Index saw reduced trading volume. Silver concept stocks surged, with companies like Hunan Silver and Silver Nonferrous hitting the daily limit. Computing power concept stocks continued to rebound, with Huamai Technology and Nanling Technology also reaching the limit. Agricultural chemical stocks remained strong, with Su Li Co., Mei Bang Co., and Changqing Co. hitting the daily limit. In contrast, stablecoin concept stocks faced adjustments, with Xiongdi Technology dropping over 10% [1]. Silver Sector - The silver sector saw significant gains, with stocks like Zhongrun Resources and Hunan Silver hitting the daily limit. Comex July silver futures rose by 4% to $36.03 per ounce, reaching a peak of $36.27, the highest level since February 2012. Over the past 12 months, gold has increased by 42%, while silver's rise was approximately 15%, indicating a lag [4][5]. - The gold-silver ratio, which measures the price relationship between gold and silver, suggests that silver may be undervalued when the ratio approaches its upper historical range [5]. - From late May, silver's upward momentum has been building, with expectations that the gold-silver ratio may revert to pre-tariff levels. The demand for industrial silver is projected to rise due to the growth in photovoltaic and electric vehicle sectors, with silver usage in hybrid and electric vehicles increasing by 21% and 71%, respectively [6]. Agricultural Chemicals - The computing power sector remained active, with Su Li Co. achieving two consecutive daily limits, and other companies like Mei Bang Co. and Changqing Co. also hitting the limit. A recent explosion at a chemical plant in Shandong related to the production of chlorantraniliprole intermediates has raised concerns [7][9]. - The explosion is expected to lead to price increases for intermediates like K-amine, and stricter regulations on nitration processes in the agricultural chemical industry. The industry is gradually returning to rationality, with high-priced inventory being depleted and procurement demand recovering, although supply-side pressures persist [9]. Solid-State Batteries - The solid-state battery sector showed strong performance, with companies like Dexin Technology and Jinying Co. hitting the daily limit. The market for solid-state batteries is projected to open up by 2030, with significant demand for solid electrolytes and lithium sulfide, indicating a market space exceeding 210 billion yuan [10][12]. - The development of solid-state batteries is expected to drive significant demand for lithium sulfide, with upstream production capacity facing notable shortages, which could hinder cost reductions [12].

基本面： 周五（6月6日）亚市早盘，现货白银窄幅震荡，美联储政策与通胀风险的博弈特朗普降息呼声与美联储的谨慎态度特朗普近期多次公开呼吁美联储主席鲍威 尔降低借贷成本，称高利率阻碍了经济增长。然而，美联储内部对降息的态度分歧明显。美联储理事库格勒和堪萨斯城联储主席施密德均表示，当前通胀风 险高于劳动力市场放缓的风险，倾向于维持当前4.25%-4.50%的政策利率不变。施密德尤其担忧关税可能重新点燃通胀，价格上涨压力或在未来数月显现。 相比之下，美联储主席鲍威尔则强调就业与通胀风险并存，主张在数据驱动下保持政策灵活性。 通胀预期与黄金的吸引力市场对未来通胀的预期正在升温。五年期和十年期美国通胀保值债券（TIPS）盈亏平衡收益率分别报2.332%和2.298%，表明市场 预计未来十年平均年通胀率约为2.3%。与此同时，5月消费者物价指数（CPI）预计将显示通胀加速，部分源于关税效应的显现。在通胀压力下，黄金作为 抗通胀资产的吸引力可能进一步增强，尤其是在美联储若推迟降息的情况下，低利率环境将为金价提供支撑。 白银与金银比的异军突起白银价格创13年新高与黄金的回落形成对比，现货白银周四跳涨3.3%，报35.61美元， ...