Economic Growth Overview - China's GDP growth in Q3 2023 was 4.8%, marking the slowest growth rate of the year [1] - Economic growth has shown a quarterly decline: Q1 at 5.4%, Q2 at 5.2%, and Q3 at 4.8% [3] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 0.5% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2023, a rare negative growth [3] - Real estate investment saw a significant decline of 13.9%, which was the largest factor dragging down overall investment [3] - Excluding real estate, national project investment maintained a positive growth of 3.0% [6] Sector Performance - Industrial investment grew by 6.4%, with significant increases in the "electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply" sector at 15.3% [6] - Manufacturing investment increased by 4.0%, with consumer goods manufacturing up by 6.3% and equipment manufacturing up by 1.6% [6] - Infrastructure investment grew by 1.1%, with notable increases in water transport (12.8%) and internet services (20.6%) [6] Private Investment Challenges - Private fixed asset investment fell by 3.1%, significantly more than the overall investment decline [7] - Barriers to market entry and high thresholds in project bidding limit private enterprise participation [7] - Financing difficulties persist for private enterprises, with high costs and limited loan availability [7] Regional Investment Disparities - Investment in eastern regions decreased by 4.5%, while central and western regions saw growth of 1.5% each [9] - Northeast regions experienced an 8.4% decline in investment, highlighting significant regional disparities [9] Policy Recommendations - Targeted measures are needed to stimulate private investment, including expanding investment opportunities in new sectors [10] - Clear industry entry standards and specific project lists in emerging fields will be developed to attract private capital [10] - Strengthening the implementation of bidding regulations and enhancing financing support systems are crucial [10] Future Outlook - Investment growth in high-tech manufacturing, green energy, and digital economy sectors is paving the way for high-quality economic development [12] - The implementation of policies aimed at invigorating private investment is expected to lead to healthier and more sustainable economic growth [12]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant role of private enterprises in advancing China's aerospace capabilities and infrastructure investment, showcasing their innovative strength and contribution to economic stability and growth [2][3]. Group 1: Aerospace Developments - The successful launch of the "Gravity One" solid rocket in Shandong, which placed three commercial satellites into orbit, marks a key achievement in China's low Earth orbit satellite constellation development [1]. - The establishment of China's first comprehensive factory for rocket assembly, testing, and reuse in Hainan signifies a major step forward in the country's aerospace industry [1]. Group 2: Role of Private Enterprises - Private enterprises are increasingly involved in critical infrastructure and industrial upgrades, with private capital participation in some nuclear power projects reaching 20% [2]. - In green and low-carbon sectors, over 80% of projects supporting private capital indicate a significant shift towards private investment in these areas [2]. Group 3: Policy Support for Private Investment - Continuous policy efforts are being made to enhance private investment, including the implementation of the Private Economy Promotion Law and the dynamic optimization of the market access negative list [2]. - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is encouraging more private investment projects to issue infrastructure REITs and participate in "Artificial Intelligence+" initiatives [2]. - Research is underway to set minimum private investment participation ratios in traditional monopoly sectors like railways and nuclear power, aiming to dismantle invisible barriers to private investment [2]. Group 4: Economic Impact - Private investment serves as an important indicator of economic activity and plays a crucial role in stabilizing employment and the economy [3]. - Encouragement and support for private investment not only reassure private enterprises but also enhance the market environment, enabling them to contribute significantly to effective investment expansion [3].

Group 1 - The successful launch of the "Gravity One" solid rocket in Shandong, which placed three commercial satellites into orbit, highlights the importance of private enterprises in China's mid-low orbit satellite constellation construction [1] - A comprehensive factory focused on the assembly, testing, and reuse of launch vehicles has been completed in Hainan, showcasing technological breakthroughs driven by private companies [1] - The participation of private capital in major infrastructure and industrial upgrade projects has significantly increased, with private investment accounting for 20% in some nuclear power projects and over 80% in green low-carbon initiatives [1] Group 2 - Recent policy signals from multiple departments indicate a strong support system for private investment, including the implementation of the Private Economy Promotion Law and dynamic optimization of the market access negative list [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is encouraging more eligible private investment projects to issue infrastructure REITs and is promoting private enterprises' involvement in the "Artificial Intelligence+" initiative [2] - Research is underway to set minimum private investment share requirements in traditional monopoly sectors such as railways, nuclear power, and oil and gas pipelines, aiming to break down invisible barriers to private investment [2]

Group 1 - Major projects are being prioritized across various regions to ensure high-quality and efficient construction, with significant efforts in Jiangsu, Henan, and Sichuan provinces [1] - The launch of major projects in the fourth quarter is expected to strengthen the foundation for local economic recovery, supporting the completion of annual economic and social development goals [1] - Major projects serve as a "ballast" for economic development and are crucial for optimizing economic structure, with steady progress in infrastructure, livelihood improvement, and industrial transformation projects [1] Group 2 - From January to July, national project investment (excluding real estate) increased by 5.3% year-on-year, outpacing overall investment growth by 3.7 percentage points [2] - The participation of private enterprises in major project construction is expanding, with significant releases of private investment vitality and notable construction outcomes [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission has introduced over 3,200 new projects to private capital, with a total investment exceeding 3 trillion yuan [2] Group 3 - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasizes enhancing the technological and industrial competitiveness of national-level new areas and high-level planning for major projects [3] - The use of special bonds and ultra-long-term special treasury bonds is expected to accelerate major project construction in the fourth quarter, contributing to high-quality development [3] - Regulatory measures for major projects are crucial to ensure compliance and risk prevention during project execution [3]

Core Insights - China's private investment potential is significant, requiring multiple measures to stimulate activity [1][2] - There is a notable gap in per capita capital stock between China and developed countries, indicating room for growth [1][2] - The National Development and Reform Commission has recently promoted over 30 trillion yuan in private investment projects, totaling more than 3,200 projects [1][2] Investment Environment - Private investment mechanisms are flexible, have strong employment generation capabilities, and respond quickly to innovation, making them a key force in unleashing domestic demand [1][2] - There is a need to optimize the business environment by reducing costs through a unified national market and establishing efficient working mechanisms to support private enterprises [1][2] Future Directions - It is essential to adopt multiple strategies to invigorate private investment, ensuring that investors are willing, daring, and capable of investing [1][2] - The focus is on empowering high-quality development through enhanced private sector participation [1][2]

Group 1 - Jiangsu has removed market access barriers for private enterprises, encouraging their participation in competitive infrastructure investment in nuclear power, wind power, and energy storage [1] - Hubei has released an investment project list targeting private capital, with an expected total investment of over 700 billion yuan in projects over the next three years [1] - From January to July this year, private project investment (excluding real estate development) in China grew by 3.9%, indicating strong resilience [1] Group 2 - Investment structure among industries shows significant differentiation, with private investment in accommodation and catering growing by 19.6%, infrastructure by 8.8%, culture, sports, and entertainment by 8.1%, and manufacturing by 5.0% [1] - The completion of the "two重" construction project list, amounting to 800 billion yuan, and the central budget investment of 735 billion yuan has provided strong support for private investment [1] - The shift towards service consumption is becoming a major direction for consumption upgrades, creating new investment opportunities that require active participation from private capital [1] Group 3 - China's per capita capital stock still lags behind developed countries, indicating significant investment space in infrastructure, industrial upgrades, education, healthcare, elderly care, and childcare [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission has recently introduced over 3,200 new projects to private capital, with a total investment exceeding 3 trillion yuan [2] - Optimizing the business environment and establishing a unified national market are essential to reduce institutional costs and support private enterprises [2]

2025.09. 30 本文字数：3352，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 | 第一财经 祝嫣然 作为破解当前投资困境、推动经济高质量发展的关键抓手，新型政策性金融工具迎来新进展。 国家发改委新闻发言人李超29日在发布会上透露，为促进金融更好服务实体经济，推动扩大有效投 资，国家发改委会同有关方面积极推进新型政策性金融工具有关工作。新型政策性金融工具规模共 5000亿元，全部用于补充项目资本金。 李超表示，正会同有关方面，抓紧将新型政策性金融工具资金投放到具体项目，后续将督促各地方推 动项目加快开工建设，尽快形成更多实物工作量，推动扩大有效投资，促进经济平稳健康发展。 当前民间投资已连续3个月负增长，新型政策性金融工具有望向民营企业倾斜。第一财经记者了解 到，进一步促进民间投资发展的若干措施即将发布，部署拓宽民间投资空间，破除限制民间投资的各 种隐性壁垒。支持民间资本加大新质生产力、新兴服务业、新型基础设施等领域投资。 有望撬动6万亿投资 我国政策性金融工具运用由来已久。比如，2022年7400亿元政策性开发性金融工具应运而生，通过 补充项目资本金、撬动配套融资，对重大项目形成精准支持。 近期，投资增长持续承压。国 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government emphasizes the importance of private investment as a key indicator of economic activity and stability, particularly in the context of the 14th Five-Year Plan, aiming to enhance effective investment and support private enterprises in seizing opportunities in emerging technologies and industries [1][2]. Group 1: Government Initiatives - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is actively seeking to expand private investment by addressing the challenges of project identification and funding access, referred to as the "two helps" [2][3]. - Recent meetings have highlighted the need for policies that facilitate private sector participation in key national projects, with a focus on new industries and innovative business models [1][2]. - The introduction of a negative list for market access allows private enterprises to enter sectors not listed, thereby promoting greater participation in strategic projects [3]. Group 2: Policy Implementation - The government has been lowering entry barriers for private capital in critical sectors, such as increasing the allowable share of private investment in nuclear power projects from 10% to 20% [3]. - Collaborative efforts among various policies, including industrial, investment, fiscal, and financial measures, are being strengthened to invigorate private investment [3][4]. - A mechanism has been established to share key private investment project lists with banks and insurance institutions, aiming to enhance financing support for private enterprises [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The ongoing implementation of supportive measures is expected to provide easier access to financing for private capital, potentially reducing costs and increasing investment activity [4]. - The government is committed to continuously refining policies to better support private investment, with a focus on new opportunities and the "two helps" framework [4][5].

Core Insights - The new policy financial tools are expected to tilt towards private enterprises, aiming to address current investment challenges and promote high-quality economic development [1][6][8] - The scale of the new policy financial tools is set at 500 billion yuan, intended to supplement project capital [1][3] - The implementation of these tools could potentially leverage an investment of approximately 6 trillion yuan, significantly impacting infrastructure investment growth [3][5] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in China from January to August reached 32.6111 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.5%, indicating a slowdown in investment growth [2] - Manufacturing investment grew by 5.1%, while infrastructure investment (excluding certain utilities) saw a growth of only 2.0% [2] - The introduction of the new policy financial tools is anticipated to enhance infrastructure investment growth by 3-4 percentage points annually over the next three years [3] Focus Areas for Investment - The new policy financial tools will primarily target sectors such as digital economy, artificial intelligence, low-altitude economy, consumer infrastructure, green and low-carbon transition, agriculture, transportation, and municipal and industrial parks [4][5] - Local governments are actively organizing training and project application meetings to align projects with the new funding opportunities [4] Support for Private Enterprises - The new financial tools are expected to allocate 100 billion yuan specifically to support private enterprises, reflecting the government's commitment to bolster the private economy [6][8] - Measures to promote private investment are set to be announced, focusing on expanding access, addressing bottlenecks, and enhancing support for private capital in emerging sectors [6][7] Policy Coordination - The government plans to implement practical measures to enhance coordination among industrial, investment, fiscal, and financial policies to stimulate private investment [8][9] - The emphasis will be on addressing deep-rooted issues affecting the business environment that have led to a decline in private investment [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][2][3] 2. Core View of the Report - Amid the dual demand for funds during the quarter - end and holidays, the central bank has intensified liquidity injection. The bond market has shown mixed trends with some yields rising and falling. The Fed's entry into the interest - rate cut cycle expands the policy space for the domestic central bank, but policy adjustments await central unified deployment. With the equity market strengthening, bond futures prices fluctuate at low levels. It is recommended to maintain a short - term neutral stance on long - term bonds and stay on the sidelines for short - term bonds, while controlling risks before the holiday [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Volume**: On the previous trading day, treasury bond futures prices generally rose. For example, the T2512 contract rose 0.07%. The trading volume and open interest of different contracts showed different changes, such as the open interest of T2512 decreasing [2] - **Arbitrage Opportunity**: The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main treasury bond futures contracts was at a low level, indicating no arbitrage opportunities [2] Spot Market - **Domestic Bond Yields**: The yields of key - term treasury bonds in China showed mixed trends. The 10Y treasury bond yield dropped 0.78bp to 1.88%, and the long - short (10 - 2) treasury bond yield spread was 42.06bp [2] - **Overseas Bond Yields**: The yields of key - term overseas treasury bonds also showed mixed trends. The 10Y US, German, and Japanese treasury bond yields rose by 2bp, 1bp, and 1bp respectively [2] Macro News - **Central Bank Liquidity**: The central bank carried out 1817 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on September 28, achieving a net injection. In the previous two days, it also made significant net injections through reverse repurchase and MLF operations [3] - **Private Investment**: The National Development and Reform Commission will implement practical measures to stimulate private investment [3] - **Population Statistics**: In 2024, the working - age population aged 16 - 59 was 857.98 million, accounting for 60.9% of the total population [3] - **Monetary Policy**: The central bank's monetary policy committee proposed to strengthen monetary policy regulation, maintain capital market stability, and support the real estate market [3] - **Real Estate Policy**: Since 2025, about 200 cities (counties) have introduced over 470 policies, and the fourth - quarter policies are expected to continue to stabilize the real estate market [3] - **Industrial Profits**: From January to August, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 4,692.97 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. In August, the profits increased by 20.4% year - on - year [3] - **US Economic Data**: The US core PCE price index in August was in line with expectations, and consumer spending was strong, increasing the uncertainty of the Fed's interest - rate cut [3] Industry Information - **Money Market Rates**: On September 28, most money market rates in China showed mixed trends, with some rising and some falling [3] - **US Treasury Yields**: US Treasury yields showed mixed trends, with some maturities rising and some falling [3] Comment and Strategy - **Market Situation**: The central bank increased open - market operations last week, and the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size improved significantly in August. The Fed restarted interest - rate cuts, and US inflation remained stubborn [3] - **Investment Strategy**: It is recommended to be bearish on long - term bonds and stay on the sidelines for short - term bonds, while controlling risks before the holiday [3]