Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Based on fundamental analysis, the market shows a pattern where large - cap indices are weak and small - cap indices are strong. The short - term market may rest, and investors are advised to stay on the sidelines, consider partial profit - taking or defensive operations [9]. - In the bond market, there is a game between long and short factors, and the market is waiting for a clear direction. Investors are advised to focus on the breakout direction [11]. - For various commodities, different trends and investment strategies are presented, such as short - term weakness in some agricultural products and energy products, and potential opportunities in some industrial metals [12][15][26]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro News - China and ASEAN have completed the negotiation of the China - ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0, including 9 new chapters [6]. - The US attempts to globally ban Chinese advanced computing chips, and the Chinese Ministry of Commerce has responded [6]. - Seven banks in China have lowered deposit interest rates, with a focus on medium - and long - term deposits [6]. - Shanghai has issued a special action plan to boost consumption, including measures for consumer goods replacement, housing consumption, and bond product supply [6]. - NVIDIA's CEO predicts that the Chinese AI market will reach $50 billion in 2026, and the US export control on AI chips to China has failed [7]. - A new tax bill may extend Trump's tax - cut policy and cut government spending, which may lead to an increase in federal debt [7]. - Two Fed officials suggest patience in policy adjustment, waiting for more data [7]. - The US Treasury auctioned $16 billion of 20 - year Treasury bonds, with a higher yield and a lower bid - to - cover ratio [8]. - The US stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets were all under pressure due to concerns about the tax bill [8]. Stock Index Futures - In April, domestic demand was weak, industrial production was stronger than expected, and major indicators declined. The market style shifted back to weak large - cap and strong small - cap indices. The short - term market may rest, and investors are advised to stay on the sidelines and consider defensive operations [9]. Treasury Bond Futures - During the tax period, the capital market was loose, and bond prices fluctuated narrowly. The macro data in April showed mixed performance, and there is a game between long and short factors in the bond market. Investors are advised to focus on the breakout direction [10][11]. Container Shipping to Europe - In the first half of June, there is more capacity supply, and the price increase may not be fully realized. The price increase is more likely to be implemented in the second half of June. The supply in June - July is increasing, but there is uncertainty in the long - term. The situation of the US shipping market will also affect the European shipping market [12]. Cotton - The international cotton market is affected by factors such as crude oil prices and planting progress. The domestic cotton market is relatively strong due to increased downstream demand. However, there are still pressures such as high inventory and uncertain trade relations. The short - term price may rebound but is still under pressure [13][14][15]. Sugar - The international sugar market is expected to have a supply surplus in the next season, which will suppress prices. The domestic sugar market has sufficient short - term supply but low inventory, and the price may fluctuate within a certain range. Attention should be paid to import supply [15][16][17]. Oils and Fats, and Oilseeds - Palm oil is expected to continue to accumulate inventory, and its short - term trend is weak. Attention should be paid to US biodiesel policy changes. Domestic soybean meal may be under pressure as soybean arrivals increase, but short - term support comes from low inventory [18][19]. Eggs - Egg prices have been falling before the Dragon Boat Festival, and the supply pressure is large in the medium - term. Consumption may enter a off - season after the festival. It is recommended to short on price rebounds [20][21]. Apples - The market is in a state of shock due to inconsistent views on apple fruiting. Before the Dragon Boat Festival, apple sales and prices are expected to be stable. It is recommended to use a light - position positive spread strategy [21]. Red Dates - The market trading is light, and the futures price is in a weak shock. The Xinjiang production area is in good condition, but the demand may decline after the festival. It is recommended to short on price increases [22]. Hogs - The supply pressure of live hogs is increasing, and demand may decline with the hot weather. The short - term spot price is expected to be weak. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [22][23]. Crude Oil - International crude oil prices are affected by inventory and geopolitical factors. The long - term trend is downward, and short - term fluctuations are strong but with limited upward space [23][24]. Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices follow crude oil prices. The current pressure area is around $65 - 68 per barrel, and the futures price is expected to decline [24][25]. Plastics - The short - term decline momentum of plastics weakens, and downstream export orders increase. It is expected to have a small - scale rebound, and a long position in the 9 - 1 spread can be considered [24]. Methanol - Methanol may have a short - term rebound due to less - than - expected port inventory accumulation, but the supply pressure is large, and it is recommended to short after the rebound [24]. Caustic Soda - The spot price of caustic soda in Shandong is strong, while the futures price is pessimistic. Before the spot price falls, the futures price decline space is limited [24]. Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash production is in maintenance, and the short - term supply pressure eases, but the long - term supply is still abundant. Glass demand has not improved significantly, and the price may fluctuate or decline slightly [25]. Asphalt - Asphalt prices are affected by crude oil prices. The current pressure area of crude oil is $65 - 68 per barrel, and asphalt futures prices are expected to decline [25]. Polyester Industry Chain - Polyester products follow crude oil prices. With the resumption of production of maintenance devices, more cost - side benefits are needed for price increases. It is recommended to short on price rebounds [25]. Pulp - The short - term supply and demand of pulp have no major contradictions, and the market is in a rigid demand and high - inventory pattern. Attention should be paid to raw material and finished - product inventory rhythms [25][26]. Logs - The spot market of logs is stable, and the supply and demand are balanced. Attention should be paid to capital and macro - sentiment impacts. Short - term spot wheeling can sell covered calls, and long - term can buy out - of - the - money calls [26]. Urea - The urea spot market is weak and stable, and the futures market is affected by export rumors. It is recommended to maintain a strong - shock thinking [26]. Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum demand is strong in the off - season, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to buy on dips. Alumina is affected by Guinea's policy, and the short - term price is strong, but the supply may return to surplus. It is recommended to be cautious when going long [26]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices are in a shock pattern. The short - term price decline space is limited, and attention should be paid to supply - demand changes [26]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon has an over - supply problem, and a bearish view is maintained before effective supply reduction. Polysilicon demand is weak, and the price is expected to decline. It is recommended to short on price rebounds [27][28]. Steel and Iron Ore - The steel market has weak demand and strong supply. The short - term trend is expected to be in shock, and the long - term trend is weak [29][30][32]. Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal and coke prices are in a downward channel. The short - term trend is affected by policies, and the fundamentals have not changed substantially. It is not recommended to go long [32]. Ferroalloys - The upper - limit hedging pressure of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is large, and the short - term trend is downward. It is recommended to short on price increases [33].

Core Insights - The 29th World Gas Conference opened in Beijing, showcasing the achievements of the past decade in green development and outlining future goals for becoming an international green economy benchmark city [1] Group 1: Green Achievements - PM2.5 annual average concentration decreased from 85.9 µg/m³ in 2014 to 30.5 µg/m³ in 2024, indicating significant air quality improvement [2] - Forest coverage increased from 40% in 2014 to 44.95% in 2024, with the establishment of a national forest city [2] - Over 3,000 general manufacturing enterprises were relocated since 2014, and more than 160 national-level green factories were created [2] - Energy consumption per unit of GDP and carbon dioxide emissions have maintained the best levels among provincial regions [2] - Over 2.5 billion square meters of green building area have been constructed, with energy-efficient buildings making up over 80% of all civil buildings [2] - By the end of 2024, green credit balance exceeded 2.3 trillion yuan [2] - Subway operational mileage reached 879 kilometers by the end of 2024, a 66.8% increase from 527 kilometers in 2014 [2] - The number of effective green technology invention patents reached 64,000 by the end of 2024 [2] Group 2: Green Standards and Cooperation - There are currently 473 effective local standards in areas such as energy conservation, carbon reduction, and water saving [3] - The "Green Silk Road" initiative has been promoted, establishing a service base for innovation and cooperation involving over 60 countries and nearly 5,000 participants [3] Group 3: Green Lifestyle Initiatives - The "Beijing Green Lifestyle Season" has been held three times, engaging over 400 million citizens in adopting green living practices [4] Group 4: Future Goals and Pathways - The implementation plan for building an international green economy benchmark city was released in October 2024, outlining goals for the next decade [5] - By 2027, the number of effective green technology invention patents is expected to grow by approximately 10% annually, with further enhancement of green technology innovation centers [5] - By 2035, the city aims to achieve significant improvements in green technology innovation, green industry cultivation, and green living environment, ultimately establishing itself as an international green economy benchmark city [5]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 资讯早班车 资讯早班车-2025-05-22 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 13 请务必阅读文末免责条款 资讯早班车 二、商品投资参考 综合 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20250416 | 2025/03 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 5.40 | 5.40 | 5.30 | | 20250430 | 2025/04 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.00 | 50.50 | 50.40 | | 20250430 | 2025/04 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 | % | 50.40 | 50.80 | 51.20 | | | | 动 | | | | | | 20250430 | 2025/04 | 财新 PMI:制造业 | % | 50.40 | 51.20 | 51.40 | | 20250506 | 2025/04 | 财新 PMI:服务业经营 活动指数 | ...

Group 1 - The 21st China (Shenzhen) International Cultural Industries Fair will be held from May 22 to 26, with a significant "policy package" to support six key areas for high-quality cultural industry development [2] - The European Union plans to impose handling fees on small packages entering the EU, with China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs advocating for a fair and transparent business environment for Chinese enterprises [2] - China and the ten ASEAN countries have completed negotiations for the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0, adding nine new chapters including digital economy and green economy [2] Group 2 - International gold prices rebounded on May 21, with domestic gold jewelry prices surpassing 1,000 yuan per gram, with notable increases from major retailers [3] - Several banks, including Ping An Bank and CITIC Bank, have lowered deposit rates, particularly for medium- and long-term deposits, with some banks suspending five-year term deposits [3] - A surge in A-share buyback and increase plans has been observed, with 394 companies announcing such plans since the second quarter of 2025, a rise of over 60% compared to the first quarter [3] Group 3 - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index closed up 0.62%, with BYD shares rising over 4% to a new historical high, and southbound funds net buying exceeding 1.4 billion HKD [4] - UBS noted a growing international interest in Chinese assets, highlighting the strategic importance of the Chinese stock market for global investors seeking excess returns [4] Group 4 - Baidu reported Q1 revenue of 32.452 billion yuan, a 3% year-on-year increase, with a notable 42% growth in Baidu Smart Cloud [5] - Xpeng Motors achieved Q1 revenue of 15.81 billion yuan, a 141.5% year-on-year increase, with a projected delivery volume of 102,000 to 108,000 units in Q2 [5] - Weibo's Q1 revenue remained stable at 396.9 million USD, with a 12% year-on-year increase in adjusted net profit [5] Group 5 - The stock price for Naxin Microelectronics was set at 163.15 yuan per share, with a subscription rate of 1.29 times from institutional investors [6] - The U.S. stock market saw declines across major indices, with significant drops in Chinese concept stocks such as iQIYI and Baidu [6]

据乌兹别克斯坦国家统计委员会最新数据，今年一季度，该国国内生产总值（GDP）同比增长6.8%， 工业、建筑业和服务业齐头并进，共同推动经济发展，这一表现为实现全年经济目标和中长期发展奠定 了坚实基础。外资大幅增长、产业多元化以及基础设施投资的加速推进，成为国际社会对乌兹别克斯坦 经济前景持乐观态度的关键因素。 今年一季度，乌兹别克斯坦GDP增速高于国际货币基金组织和世界银行的年初预期，显示出强劲的发展 势头。从行业来看，工业增长6.5%，建筑业增长10.8%，服务业增长12.6%，农业、林业和渔业增长 3.8%。其中，服务业占GDP比重提升至56.1%，凸显消费市场的活力。固定资产投资表现尤为突出，总 额达120.4万亿苏姆，同比增长7.9%，外资占比高达71%。实际利用的外国投资与贷款总额达87亿美 元，同比增长124.3%，进一步印证了国际投资者对乌兹别克斯坦经济前景的信心。 对外贸易方面，外贸总额增长8.6%，呈现"量质齐升"的特点。出口额同比增长24.4%，成为经济增长的 重要动力；进口则下降2.3%，表明本国产业竞争力提升和进口替代政策初见成效，贸易逆差显著缩 小。 再次，建筑业和基础设施建设提速。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Southwest region of China is an important ecological barrier and resource-rich area, with a focus on exploring innovative paths for ecological value transformation to promote green economic development [1][2]. Group 1: Ecological Achievements - Yunnan Province has a forest coverage rate of 55.25% and a forest stock volume of 2.144 billion cubic meters, ranking among the top in the country [1]. - The province has over 2,700 organic product certifications, second in the nation, leveraging its unique ecological and resource advantages [1]. - The Chengdu-Chongqing area has initiated cross-province and cross-basin ecological corridor construction, completing over 13 million acres of afforestation under the "Two Banks Green Mountains, Thousand Miles Forest Belt" project [1]. - Guizhou Province has a forest coverage rate of 63%, with a green economy accounting for 46% of its total economy, promoting over 30 ecological civilization reform achievements nationwide [1]. Group 2: Policy Support - The "Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle Construction Plan" emphasizes ecological environment zoning and management, as well as cross-basin ecological compensation mechanisms [2]. - The 2022 State Council document encourages integrating ecological product value indicators into performance assessments and exploring innovative models for mountain ecosystem protection and utilization [2]. Group 3: Mechanism Innovation - Establishing a collaborative development mechanism for ecological economy in the Southwest, promoting standard recognition, policy coordination, and data sharing [3]. - Legislative measures to clarify cross-border ecological protection responsibilities and establish a compensation standard system [3]. - Creating a unified ecological product trading platform and exploring cross-province trading mechanisms for environmental rights [3]. Group 4: Green Energy Development - Focusing on the green and low-carbon transformation of regional economic structures, leveraging renewable energy advantages such as hydropower and solar energy [3]. - Building a national-level clean energy base and promoting strategic emerging industries like clean energy and biomedicine to cluster in resource-rich areas [3]. Group 5: Technological Support - Developing key technologies for ecological restoration, such as vegetation recovery and biodiversity protection, tailored to the Southwest's complex geography [4]. - Establishing a value accounting system for ecological products and promoting the marketization of ecological resources [4]. Group 6: Community Engagement - Creating public welfare positions for ecological management and enhancing profit-sharing mechanisms for environmental protection [4]. - Encouraging farmers to participate in market operations of ecological resources through land management and carbon trading [4].

Domestic News - China and ASEAN have completed negotiations for the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0, which includes nine new chapters focusing on digital economy, green economy, supply chain connectivity, and more, promoting deeper regional economic integration [1] - In 2024, trade between China and Africa reached $295.6 billion, marking a 4.8% year-on-year increase, with China maintaining its position as Africa's largest trading partner for 16 consecutive years [1] Financial Sector Developments - Several major banks in China, including China Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank, announced a reduction in RMB deposit rates by 15 basis points for both 1-year and 2-year fixed deposits [2] - The Hong Kong Legislative Council passed the Stablecoin Bill, establishing a licensing system for fiat-backed stablecoin issuers to enhance regulatory frameworks for virtual asset activities [2] Regulatory and Compliance Updates - The Supreme People's Procuratorate reported the arrest of Zhang Gengsheng, former Vice President of China Construction Bank, on charges of bribery and illegal loan issuance [3] - The China Insurance Industry Association released a report on investment management capabilities, emphasizing the need for insurance companies to enhance risk management and information disclosure practices [3] International Economic Indicators - Japan's Ministry of Finance reported a trade deficit of 115.8 billion yen in April due to decreased exports of automobiles, steel, and ships [5] - The Bank of Indonesia lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 5.5%, aligning with market expectations [5] - The UK's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 3.5% in April, up from 2.6% in March, marking the highest level since January 2024 [5]

"发展绿色经济是中国和中东欧国家的共同追求，也是双方创新合作的重要组成部分。我们将深化农 业、制造、通信、技术研发等传统领域合作，拓展数字经济、电子商务、金融科技、智慧城市等领域合 作，加大中国-中东欧国家经贸合作示范区、产业园建设力度。"于健龙表示，中国-中东欧国家联合商 会将以共享绿色发展新机遇为导向，引导双方企业加强跨境电商等新业态新模式合作，提升产业链合作 水平，深化绿色经济、清洁能源等领域合作，扩大风能、太阳能等清洁能源联合开发，为中国-中东欧 国家合作增添绿色动能。 主题为"向新向实向未来"的第四届中国—中东欧国家博览会暨国际消费品博览会将于5月22日在宁波开 幕。博览会举办前夕，中国-中东欧国家联合商会宁波会议5月21日下午举行。中国贸促会副会长于健龙 表示，2024年，中国-中东欧国家贸易额达到1423亿美元，创历史新高，同比增长6.3%，呈现出旺盛的 生机活力。中国贸促会将与中东欧国家商协会一道，在中国-中东欧国家联合商会框架下，共同打造一 批品牌对接平台，帮助双方企业积极挖掘新的贸易增长点，拓展汽车、家电等机电产品和优质消费品贸 易，发展装备制造等高附加值产品贸易，合作建设农产品批发市场， ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the potential for increased cooperation between the UK and China, particularly in the electric vehicle sector, which aligns with the UK's emission reduction policies and offers consumers more quality product choices [1][15] - The China-UK Chamber of Commerce's "2025 Recommendations" highlights the need for further market access and the positive atmosphere for dialogue and pragmatic cooperation between the two countries [1][2] Group 1: Economic Cooperation - The UK government is encouraged to recognize the benefits of allowing more Chinese electric vehicles into the market, which could alleviate consumer financial pressure and create a win-win situation [1][15] - The recent visits by UK officials to China signify a renewed commitment to economic dialogue and cooperation, which is seen as a positive signal for both countries [2][3] Group 2: Investment Trends - There is a notable increase in private Chinese capital entering the UK market, particularly in sectors like electric vehicles, batteries, and solar energy, which are gaining acceptance among UK consumers [2][15] - The UK is viewed as a significant market for Chinese companies, especially with the growing middle-income group and the demand for quality products [7][15] Group 3: Future Economic Outlook - The expectation for China's economy to achieve a growth rate of around 5% by 2025 is considered realistic, with a focus on stimulating domestic demand [5][6] - The health of the Chinese economy is crucial for the development of UK companies operating in China, and sustained consumer spending is essential for achieving growth targets [6][7] Group 4: Market Access and Regulatory Environment - The new market access negative list from China reduces restrictions, signaling a commitment to further opening the market, which is expected to benefit UK businesses operating in China [12][13] - The ongoing efforts by China to join international trade agreements like CPTPP and DEPA are seen as positive steps towards greater economic integration and cooperation [13][14] Group 5: Sector-Specific Opportunities - The healthcare sector is highlighted as a significant area for collaboration, with UK firms providing legal and financial services to Chinese companies expanding internationally [14][15] - The investment by AstraZeneca in Beijing, amounting to $2.5 billion, reflects a long-term strategic vision and recognition of the value of the Chinese market [8][15]

Group 1: EU and Trade Agreements - The EU is considering a unified fee for small packages ordered online, potentially around 2 euros, to cover customs costs and possibly contribute to the EU budget [4] - China and ASEAN have completed negotiations for the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0, which includes nine new chapters focusing on digital economy, green economy, and trade facilitation, aiming for deeper regional economic integration [5] Group 2: Trade Relations - China has maintained its position as Africa's largest trading partner for 16 consecutive years, with trade volume reaching 295.6 billion USD in 2024, a 4.8% increase year-on-year [5] - China's imports from Africa amounted to 116.8 billion USD, growing by 6.9%, while exports to Africa reached 178.8 billion USD, increasing by 3.5% [5] Group 3: E-commerce and Logistics - Guangdong province is initiating pilot programs for "cross-border e-commerce belts" to enhance logistics and trade facilitation [6] - Cainiao has delivered a national-level automated sorting center to a Brazilian logistics company, increasing sorting efficiency by seven times, processing nearly one million packages daily [6] Group 4: Automotive and Technology Investments - French government announced significant investments in electric vehicle production, including 175 million euros from WeRide for long-range electric trucks [7] - Tesla plans to expand its autonomous taxi service to Los Angeles and San Francisco, starting with approximately 10 vehicles in Austin [7]