来源：金十数据 周四凌晨，美联储主席鲍威尔将迎来一场极为艰难的新闻发布会。届时，外界的聚光灯将不再聚焦于枯 燥的经济数据，而是死死盯着他关于政治风暴的每一个字眼。 这场发布会紧随美联储利率决议之后，但时机却极其敏感。就在两周前，鲍威尔罕见地采取了强硬姿 态，公开指责白宫试图利用法律威胁作为筹码，逼迫美联储大幅降息。在默默承受了特朗普多年的指责 后，鲍威尔这一次选择了反击，彻底颠覆了以往"打不还手"的剧本。 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 此刻，无论是决策者、华尔街精英还是美国公众，都在屏息以待：鲍威尔是否会谈及他在美联储的去 留？他又将如何定性美联储与特朗普政府之间日益白热化的紧张关系？ 从关注利率到关注政治 市场的关注点已经发生了根本性的转移。 BNY Investments首席经济学家文森特·莱因哈特（Vincent Reinhardt）表示，过去华尔街客户问他的问 题，通常都可以用"基点"来量化回答。但现在，"游戏规则变了"。 摩根士丹利全球首席经济学家赛斯·卡彭特（Seth Carpenter）也持相同观点："这一回，几乎每一位记者 都会追问政治问题。" 矛盾 ...

四位候选人各有明显短板：里德尔凭借华尔街资历与美联储改革构想获得特朗普关注，但他从未在美联 储任职，主张将基准利率下调至3%，但贝莱德的任职背景可能引发其支持者对"全球主义"的质疑；哈 塞特曾是热门人选，却因特朗普希望其留任白宫而暂时淡出视野，且提名白宫国家经济委员会主任或将 引发外界对美联储独立性的担忧；沃勒作为美联储内部人士，市场对其是否愿意推动特朗普期待的政策 改革存在疑问；沃什过往长期持鹰派立场，虽近期表态转向鸽派，但市场对其立场稳定性仍存顾虑。 当地时间1月27日，美国总统特朗普在爱荷华州公开讲话中抨击现任美联储主席鲍威尔为"一位糟糕的美 联储主席"，称鲍威尔试图维持高位利率，并表示将很快宣布新任美联储主席人选。 特朗普曾在2017年任命鲍威尔担任美联储主席，后续却因鲍威尔未采纳其降息建议而多次公开批评对 方。白宫新闻秘书莱维特此前表示，将在适当时间公布新任人选，目前外界猜测宣布时间可能同步于本 周美联储1月决议公布窗口，以转移市场对美联储维持利率不变的注意力。 此前美国财政部长贝森特曾透露，特朗普或最早在1月26日当周公布人选。据预测平台Polymarket数 据，截至1月27日，贝莱德全球固定收 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：期货日报 早上好，先来关注下国际市场。 27日晚，NYMEX钯主力合约跌逾12%，NYMEX铂主力合约跌逾10%。 | 锂主连 | 1923.0 -12.16% | -266.3 | | --- | --- | --- | | 延时 PAOW | | | | 铂主连 | 2562.1 -10.98% | -316.0 | | 延时 PLOW | | | | 纽约银主连 | 107.715 -6.74% | -7.789 | | 延时 SIOW | | | 金银方面，纽约期银价格大跌近7%，沪银期货主力合约跌2.68%。伦敦金现货价格今天凌晨则再次创下 历史新高。 截至今晨收盘，伦敦金现货价格上涨2.7%，报5179美元/盎司，再创历史新高；纽约期金价格上涨 1.88%，突破5200美元/盎司；伦敦银现货价格上涨4.73%，纽约期银价格下跌2.73%；NYMEX钯主力合 约跌逾10%，NYMEX铂主力合约跌逾8%。 两家知名机构上调了黄金和白银未来的价格预期。 花旗投资研究将白银目标价从之前的每盎司100美元上调至150美元。花旗在一份报告 ...

A five-month process of finding the next Federal Reserve chair appears to be down to its final days, with one candidate emerging as the betting favorite even as others remain in the mix.BlackRock fixed income chief Rick Rieder is seen by prediction markets as the frontrunner to replace Jerome Powell at the helm of the central bank. Kalshi has the Wall Street veteran holding a 48% chance, well ahead of the next-closest competitor, former Governor Kevin Warsh, at 31%.But sentiment has been volatile, and it wa ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bloomberg Dollar Index has fallen to its lowest level in nearly four years, driven by a resurgence of the yen and investor caution regarding U.S. policies [1][2] Group 1: Dollar Index Performance - The Bloomberg Dollar Index dropped by 0.4%, marking its lowest point since March 2022, and has declined for four consecutive trading days [1][2] - The dollar's performance over the past week was the worst since May [1][2] Group 2: Factors Influencing Dollar Weakness - Signs indicate that the U.S. may intervene to support the yen, sparking discussions about potential coordinated interventions by major economies to lower the dollar against key trading partner currencies [2] - Investor caution is reflected in the dollar's weakness, influenced by erratic U.S. policies, including President Trump's threats regarding Greenland [2] - Long-term concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, rising budget deficits, fiscal irresponsibility, and increasing political polarization are contributing to the dollar's decline [2] Group 3: Market Sentiment - Concerns about a potential partial government shutdown are causing apprehension among those bullish on the dollar [2] - The performance of the U.S. economy is expected to influence the extent of the Federal Reserve's easing measures, which will, in turn, affect the dollar's strength [2]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Insights - Allianz Investment anticipates that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates this week, with market focus shifting to Powell's response regarding the independence of the Fed amid current administrative pressures [1] - Navellier highlights that the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting may be overshadowed by the nomination of a new chair by President Trump, with potential deflationary risks prompting a need for a rate cut of at least 1% [2] - Huatai Securities predicts that the Federal Reserve is likely to pause rate cuts and maintain its forward guidance until December 2025, with attention on Powell's statements regarding the rate path and Fed independence [2] Group 2: Japanese Economic Concerns - The head of Japan's largest business lobbying group warns of the need to monitor the impact of U.S. tariffs on Japanese industries, particularly on small and medium enterprises, despite a macroeconomic perspective suggesting limited effects [3] - The formal wage negotiations in Japan have commenced, with expectations of maintaining some wage increases despite challenging factors, although no specific comments on potential wage growth were made [3] Group 3: GPIF Investment Strategy - Speculation arises that Japan's Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF), valued at $1.8 trillion, may adjust its investment strategy to stabilize the domestic bond market and support the yen, potentially reducing foreign bond holdings [4] - Any adjustments by GPIF, which currently holds approximately $400 billion in foreign bonds, could signal a return of Japanese capital, benefiting both Japanese government bonds and the yen [4] Group 4: Precious Metals and Currency Trends - OCBC Bank's research department indicates that silver prices are expected to rise significantly due to tightening physical supply, robust industrial demand, and supportive macroeconomic conditions, with a price forecast increase from $76 to $117 per ounce by Q1 2026 [4] - Amundi, Europe's largest asset management company, notes that U.S. policy threats are driving investors to reduce dollar asset holdings and shift towards gold, with a long-term view that gold serves as an effective hedge against currency depreciation [5][6]

Group 1 - The current price of spot gold is 1131.90 CNY per gram, reflecting an increase of 11.23 CNY or 1.00% from the previous trading day, with a trading range between 1120.78 CNY and 1136.39 CNY [1] - The market is focusing on the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, with expectations that interest rates will remain unchanged [4] Group 2 - Rick Rieder has emerged as a leading candidate for the position of Federal Reserve Chair, with his probability of selection rising from 6% to over 60% [2] - Rieder's policy proposals align closely with the White House's calls for interest rate cuts, advocating for a reduction to around 3% to stimulate economic growth [2] - His nomination is viewed positively by the market, as it is expected to enhance policy transmission efficiency and potentially accelerate the interest rate cut cycle [3] Group 3 - Rieder's approach emphasizes achieving maximum employment and price stability, indicating a pragmatic and growth-oriented philosophy [3] - There are concerns regarding potential conflicts of interest due to Rieder's previous association with BlackRock and his lack of formal government experience [3] - The political landscape may favor Rieder's nomination due to his emphasis on Federal Reserve independence and his technical expertise [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Dutch International Group's interest rate strategists highlights the increasing government spending accompanied by fiscal risks, particularly for U.S. Treasury investors, emphasizing the need to be cautious about these risks [1] Group 1: Fiscal Risks - The latest deficit data from the U.S. shows some improvement, but average projections indicate that budget deficits will remain significantly above 6% in 2026 and 2027 [1] - The reliance on foreign investors to fund the U.S. current account deficit is a growing concern [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Tensions - There are no immediate signs of de-dollarization; however, geopolitical tensions and challenges to the independence of the Federal Reserve could diminish the attractiveness of U.S. Treasuries as a safe asset [1] - This situation contributes to maintaining high yields on 10-year U.S. Treasuries and results in a steeper yield curve [1]

来源：金十 一位新的领跑者已经出现在美联储主席的角逐中，而他的当选可能从根本上改变该央行的政策制定方 式。预测市场Polymarket目前将贝莱德的里克·瑞德（Rick Rieder）稳固地置于领先地位。此举若成真， 将意味着在美联储面临巨大政治压力和高度审视的时刻， 市场经验丰富的老将、而非学术经济学家将 执掌利率决策之舵。他的崛起不仅仅是一则人事新闻；这可能是货币政策的一个潜在转折点。 瑞德获胜的几率已从本月中旬的仅6%飙升至如今的超过60%，而特朗普在最近达沃斯世界经济论坛的 采访中称他"令人印象深刻"。特朗普表示："我会说我们已缩小到三个人选，其实是两个。我大概可以 告诉你，在我看来，可能只剩下一个了。" 提名预计将于1月底前公布。 一位与白宫降息诉求相符的美联储人选 白宫已非常明确地表示，希望看到央行采取更激进的货币政策。特朗普政府正倚赖美联储帮助降低利率 并促进经济增长。 在剩余的四位候选人中，瑞德被认为拥有最丰富的市场经验，他担任贝莱德全球固定收益首席投资官， 同时管理着约2.4万亿美元的债券策略。他很可能会被视为历史上最具市场洞察力的美联储主席。 尽管他未曾有过在美联储或政府的正式任职经验，但 ...

Core Viewpoint - The reduction of $8.1 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds by Danish and Swedish pension funds signals growing unease about U.S. debt sustainability and reflects tensions stemming from geopolitical issues, particularly related to Greenland [1][3][5][12]. Group 1: Actions and Reactions - Danish pension funds sold approximately $1 billion in U.S. Treasuries, while Swedish funds accounted for about $80 billion, totaling $81 billion in reductions [3][8]. - Trump's immediate threat of retaliation against Europe for further reductions indicates a heightened sensitivity to any perceived challenges to U.S. financial stability [1][12]. - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin's dismissal of the reduction as insignificant appears to be a strategy to maintain market confidence, despite the underlying concerns about European holdings of U.S. debt [10][22]. Group 2: Underlying Concerns - The pension funds' actions stem from a lack of confidence in the long-term security of U.S. debt, exacerbated by rising U.S. debt levels and unpredictable political behavior from Trump [5][15]. - The total amount of U.S. Treasuries held by European investors exceeds $3.6 trillion, representing nearly 40% of all foreign-held U.S. debt, indicating the significant role Europe plays in U.S. financial markets [8][22]. - The potential for a broader sell-off by European funds could lead to increased borrowing costs for the U.S. and greater financial market instability, raising alarms about the implications for the U.S. economy [17][23]. Group 3: Economic Context - The ongoing investigation into the Federal Reserve's operations and Trump's pressure for interest rate cuts highlight the precarious state of U.S. financial conditions, which could be further complicated by European actions [17][20]. - The interconnectedness of U.S. and European financial markets, including currency swap agreements, suggests that any significant sell-off of U.S. debt could have dire consequences for both economies [23][25]. - Despite the risks associated with U.S. debt, it remains one of the most liquid and relatively safe assets globally, compelling European investors to maintain their holdings despite dissatisfaction [25][27].