智通财经APP获悉，特朗普政府试图影响美联储决策的努力与央行独立性之间迎来激烈博弈。美国参议 院以微弱优势批准特朗普经济顾问斯蒂芬·米兰(Stephen Miran)进入美联储理事会，此举强化了特朗普对 货币政策的影响力。米兰支持降息，预计将在9月会议主张更大幅度宽松。与此同时，哥伦比亚特区巡 回上诉法院驳回特朗普解雇美联储理事莉萨·库克(Lisa Cook)的请求，维护了美联储的独立性。法院裁 定总统无权以其政策立场为由免职理事。 特朗普经济顾问获参议院批准加入美联储 特朗普罢免美联储理事遭否 与此同时，周一，美国一家上诉法院拒绝了让特朗普解雇美联储理事莉萨·库克(Lisa Cook)的请求—— 这是自 1913 年美联储成立以来总统首次采取此类行动——这是这场法律斗争的最新一步，这场斗争威 胁到了美联储长期以来的独立性。 通常情况下，美联储理事的提名需要经过参议院数月的审议才能获得通过;而米兰的情况则是在不到六 周的时间内就完成了这一过程。阿拉斯加州的参议员莉萨·穆尔科斯基(Lisa Murkowski)是唯一一个反对 米兰提名的共和党人。 米兰预计将参与9月16日启动的为期两天的美联储会议。市场普遍预计 ...

风波始于8月25日。特朗普以涉嫌抵押贷款欺诈为由宣布解除库克职务，指其在2019年申请房贷时将两 套房产同时申报为主要住宅以获取更低利率。库克随即起诉，主张总统缺乏正当理由，要求恢复职位。 9月9日，地区法官贾娅·科布发布初步裁定，认为《联邦储备法》对罢免理事设定了正当理由高门槛， 而针对库克的刑事指控既未立案，证据亦不足，因此暂停解职令，等待主案审理结果。 当地时间9月15日，美国哥伦比亚特区联邦上诉法院驳回司法部紧急动议，维持下级法院对特朗普撤换 美联储理事库克的临时禁令。库克由此确定出席9月17—18日议息会议，其理事席位至少在最高法院发 声前得以保全，也为本周可能的降息决定保留完整投票权。 上诉法院三法官小组周日简短驳回，未采纳政府设定的时间表，也未说明理由，仅表示维持现状，直至 进一步通知。这意味着库克可继续履职，FOMC会议不会因席位空缺而被迫调整议程。 法律焦点集中在总统罢免权的边界。1976年《联邦储备法》明确，总统罢免理事须有正当理由，但条文 未细化标准。司法部主张，只要总统认定理事不适格，即可行使罢免权。库克一方则认为，需经司法程 序确认存在重大违法或失职，否则美联储独立性将沦为空谈。科布 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the structure and decision-making mechanisms of the Federal Reserve, emphasizing its independence and the implications of political interference, particularly in the context of President Trump's actions and statements regarding the Fed [2][8]. Group 1: Structure of the Federal Reserve - The Federal Reserve is an independent entity of the federal government, supervised by Congress, and consists of a central management board and 12 regional reserve banks [2][12]. - The Federal Reserve has three core entities: the Board of Governors, 12 Reserve Banks, and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) [13][24]. Group 2: Functions of the Federal Reserve - The Federal Reserve performs five main functions: executing monetary policy, promoting financial system stability, supervising financial institutions, ensuring the efficiency of payment systems, and protecting consumers [12][19]. Group 3: Decision-Making Mechanisms - The Board of Governors operates on a simple majority voting system, with some actions requiring an absolute majority [4][26]. - The FOMC consists of 12 members and also operates on a simple majority basis for decision-making [27][30]. Group 4: Influence of the Federal Reserve Chair - The Federal Reserve Chair has significant actual influence beyond their nominal voting power, impacting discussions, market expectations, and the Fed's credibility [5][29]. - The Chair's leadership role is crucial in coordinating consensus among members regarding monetary policy [29]. Group 5: Historical Context of Dissenting Votes - Dissenting votes in FOMC meetings are common, with 36% of meetings since 1936 featuring opposition [7][30]. - The reasons for dissent often relate to the macroeconomic environment rather than the Chair's leadership or policy preferences [6][31]. Group 6: Political Interference and Independence - Recent actions by President Trump, including attempts to influence Fed appointments and policies, have raised concerns about the Fed's independence [8][36]. - The potential dismissal of Fed officials could undermine the institution's independence, with historical precedent indicating that such actions have never occurred [9][37].

Core Viewpoint - A federal appeals court has upheld a lower court's temporary injunction allowing Federal Reserve Board member Lisa Cook to continue her duties, which is significant as it coincides with the Fed's upcoming monetary policy meeting [1][5]. Group 1: Legal Dispute and Independence of the Federal Reserve - The legal dispute centers around the independence of the Federal Reserve, with the Trump administration seeking to remove Cook based on allegations of submitting false housing loan applications [3][4]. - Cook's legal team denies any wrongdoing and argues that the removal is politically motivated due to differences in interest rate policies between her and the Trump administration [4]. - The Federal Reserve Act stipulates that the President can only remove a Board member for "cause," and Cook's team contends that the government has not provided valid reasons [4]. Group 2: Court Rulings and Opinions - A district judge previously ruled that Cook is "very likely to succeed" in her case, leading to a temporary halt on her removal [5]. - The appeals court upheld this ruling with a 2-1 decision, where the two judges appointed by Biden expressed concerns about the potential disruption to the status quo and Cook's lack of a fair hearing [5]. - The dissenting judge, appointed by Trump, argued that the President should have the authority to ensure that key positions are held by trustworthy individuals [5][6]. Group 3: Potential Impact on Gold Prices - The court's decision alleviates market concerns regarding executive interference in the independence of the central bank, which may stabilize monetary policy expectations and suppress safe-haven demand for gold in the short term [7]. - However, the Trump administration's attempts to remove Cook and its implications for interest rate policies could raise long-term concerns about the Fed's credibility and the value of the dollar, potentially increasing gold's appeal as a safe haven [7]. - Cook is viewed as a dovish member, and her situation is closely tied to the Trump administration's pressure for rate cuts, which could create uncertainty in policy decisions and increase market volatility, benefiting gold [7][9]. Group 4: New Appointments and Market Dynamics - The Senate has confirmed Stephen Moore, nominated by Trump, to the Federal Reserve Board, which will coincide with the ongoing legal disputes and may further influence gold prices [8]. - The interplay between the Fed's personnel changes and monetary policy direction is expected to impact the gold market through two pathways: short-term stabilization of policy expectations and long-term political risks that could drive demand for gold as a hedge [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article suggests that a new bull market for gold may be driven by investor demand, with predictions that spot gold prices could exceed $4,000 per ounce by Q1 2026 due to the upcoming Federal Reserve rate cut cycle and strong investor interest [1][9]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Morgan Stanley has raised its gold price forecast, expecting an average of $3,800 per ounce by Q4 2025 and over $4,000 per ounce in Q1 2026, which is a quarter earlier than previously anticipated [9]. - The report indicates a fundamental shift in the driving forces of the gold market, with investor demand now taking precedence over central bank purchases as the main catalyst for price increases [2][6]. - Historical data shows that gold typically performs well during Federal Reserve rate cut cycles, with double-digit returns often seen within nine months of the cuts [6][9]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - There has been a significant inflow into global gold ETFs, with nearly 72 tons added in a two-week period ending September 5, 2025, marking the largest inflow since mid-April [3][6]. - The decline in U.S. Treasury yields has reignited interest in gold ETFs, as lower nominal yields translate into lower real yields, which is favorable for gold investment [8][9]. Group 3: Tail Risks and Scenarios - A notable tail risk identified is the potential erosion of the Federal Reserve's independence, which could lead to a significant shift of funds from U.S. Treasuries to gold, potentially pushing gold prices to $5,000 per ounce within two quarters [11][14]. - The analysis suggests that even a small rotation of funds from the $29 trillion U.S. Treasury market to gold could result in substantial price increases, with a hypothetical $800 billion quarterly flow being sufficient to elevate gold prices significantly [12][14]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite the optimistic outlook for gold, there are concerns regarding a potential sharp decline in central bank gold purchases, which could challenge the sustainability of the price increase [16]. - The report anticipates that central bank gold purchases will average between 700-800 tons annually in 2025 and 2026, which is significantly higher than the pre-2022 average of around 400 tons [16].

作者：李笑寅，华尔街见闻 特朗普的经济顾问斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）正式加入美联储担任理事。 当地时间周一晚间，特朗普提名的美联储理事人选米兰在参议院通过最终投票表决，确认出任理事一 职。这意味着他将能够赶上周二开始的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）议息会议，并拥有投票权。 此次确认投票的时间安排异常紧凑，为米兰参与FOMC会议创造了可能，但同时也带来了程序挑战。 一般来说，从参议院批准到正式宣誓就职并坐上FOMC会议桌的整个流程，通常需要数天时间。若米兰 能在周二会议开始前完成所有程序，他将创下一项历史纪录。 据《巴伦周刊》分析，自1935年《银行法》实施以来，从未有过一位美联储理事在确认后的第二天就立 即参加利率决策会议。此前的最快纪录由H. Robert Heller在1986年创下，他在周六获得确认，并参加了 接下来周二开始的会议。 目前尚不清楚米兰是否能来得及提交他的经济预测摘要，以纳入会后发布的材料中。 美联储独立性受损担忧升温 米兰的加入，正值特朗普总统公开向美联储施压之际。 特朗普周一早些时候在社交媒体Truth Social上发帖，用他给美联储主席鲍威尔起的绰号称，"'为时已 ...

Macro Strategy - Trump's intervention in the independence of the Federal Reserve is expected through three main avenues: nominating a chairman aligned with his interests, restructuring the board to include loyalists, and influencing the appointment of regional Fed presidents [1] - The anticipated changes in the Fed's leadership could lead to a more accommodative monetary policy, with potential interest rate cuts exceeding current market expectations, possibly resulting in a shift from a soft landing to moderate economic expansion in the U.S. [1] Economic Data Review - In August, both domestic and external demand weakened, leading to a situation where supply adjustments lag behind demand, reinforcing a short-term scenario of strong supply and weak demand [2][3] - Investment has shown negative growth for two consecutive months, while retail sales growth has been declining since May, indicating a comprehensive weakening of demand [2] - Despite the demand weakness, supply remains high, with industrial and service production growth rates above 5%, suggesting that GDP growth may align more closely with supply data [2] Financial Market Insights - The market is increasingly anticipating the resumption of "government bond trading," with expectations rising for the end of the year, which could stabilize bond yields and further lower financing costs for the real economy [4][5] - The recent financial data indicates a seasonal rebound, but loan demand remains weak, which could lead to a decline in social financing growth and M2 money supply growth [4][6] Industry Insights - The renewable energy sector is seeing improvements in pricing mechanisms that facilitate local consumption of green electricity, which is expected to benefit companies involved in waste-to-energy and SAF production [10] - The construction materials industry is advised to focus on domestic demand changes, with expectations of a recovery in retail construction materials as the market adjusts [11][12] - The public utilities sector is recommended for investments in companies like South Grid Energy and South Grid Storage, which are expected to benefit from new pricing mechanisms and increased demand for energy storage [13] Automotive Sector - The automotive sector is entering a new phase, with a focus on electric and intelligent vehicles, and recommendations for increasing exposure to companies benefiting from these trends [15][16] - The recent government initiatives aim to stabilize growth in the automotive industry, with a focus on both scale and quality [15] Non-Banking Financial Sector - The non-banking financial sector is characterized by low average valuations, presenting opportunities for investment, particularly in insurance and securities [20] - The insurance sector is expected to benefit from economic recovery and rising interest rates, while the securities sector is poised for growth due to favorable market conditions [20] Coal Industry - The coal industry is entering a seasonal downturn, with expectations of fluctuating prices due to reduced demand as temperatures drop [21] - Recommendations include focusing on resilient coal companies that can withstand market pressures [21] Oil and Gas Sector - The oil and gas sector is facing challenges with OPEC+ increasing production, leading to a decline in international oil prices [25] - Companies involved in oil exploration and production are recommended for investment, given the potential for price recovery in the long term [25]

米兰在当地时间周一深夜获得快速确认，意味着他将出席周二在华盛顿召开的备受市场期待的联邦 公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议。米兰曾表示一旦获得确认，计划从白宫经济顾问委员会主席职位上申 请无薪休假，但迄今未承诺辞去该职务。 SHMET 网讯：美国参议院周一确认了美国总统特朗普提名的美联储理事人选史蒂芬·米兰 （Stephen Miran），此时距美联储召开议息会议考虑是否降息仅剩一天。 市场普遍预期美联储将宣布自2024年12月以来首次降息，但降息幅度仍存悬念。美联储主席鲍威尔 至今顶住了总统特朗普的施压攻势，但他在上月暗示经济状况——包括关税政策引发的不确定性，可能 需要在9月会议上降息。 米兰本周不太可能成为降息决定的关键投票。在7月下旬的上次会议上，FOMC成员以9比2的投票 结果决定维持利率不变。但批评人士指出，米兰可能试图影响委员会成员。他们警告称，米兰同时担任 白宫高级顾问的身份，将损害央行相对于特朗普政府的独立性。 这一前景加剧了民主党人和部分经济学家的担忧：若白宫任命官员在为总统服务的同时担任美联储 的"独立"理事，美联储独立性将面临威胁。参议院银行委员会首席成员、马萨诸塞州民主党参议员伊丽 莎白 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments regarding the Federal Reserve, including the confirmation of Stephen Milan as a member of the Federal Reserve Board and the anticipated interest rate cuts in the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting [3][5][6]. Federal Reserve Developments - The U.S. Senate confirmed Stephen Milan's nomination to the Federal Reserve Board, allowing him to participate in the upcoming FOMC meeting [5]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve this week is reported at 95.9%, while the probability of a 50 basis point cut is at 4.1% [3][6]. - For October, the cumulative probabilities for rate cuts are 23.1% for 25 basis points, 73.8% for 50 basis points, and 3.1% for 75 basis points [6]. Market Reactions - Following the anticipation of rate cuts, U.S. stock indices saw collective gains, with the Dow Jones up 0.11%, S&P 500 up 0.47%, and Nasdaq up 0.94%, marking new closing highs for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq [7]. - Major tech stocks, including Google and Tesla, experienced significant increases, with Google rising over 4% [7]. Political Context - President Trump threatened to declare a national emergency in response to local governance issues in Washington, D.C., indicating potential federal intervention [8]. - Trump's comments on deploying the National Guard in Memphis to combat crime have faced local opposition, highlighting tensions between federal and local authorities [11].

Core Points - Stephen Miran has been confirmed as a Federal Reserve Board member, allowing him to participate in the upcoming FOMC meeting and vote on interest rate decisions [1] - The market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut, but Miran's presence may shift the voting dynamics towards a potential 50 basis point cut, aligning with the White House's calls for more aggressive monetary easing [1][3] - Miran's appointment raises concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, especially given the Trump administration's pressure for significant monetary policy loosening [3] Summary by Sections Appointment and Confirmation - Miran's confirmation by the Senate allows him to join the FOMC meeting starting Tuesday, potentially setting a record for the fastest transition from confirmation to participation in a rate-setting meeting [2] - He fills the vacancy left by Adriana Kugler, whose term ended in August, and will serve until January 2026 [1] Market Expectations and Policy Implications - The prevailing expectation is a 25 basis point rate cut, but Miran and other officials like Christopher Waller may advocate for a more substantial cut, possibly 50 basis points [1][3] - Trump's public statements indicate a desire for rates to be lowered to 1%, a level typically seen only during economic crises [3] Concerns Over Independence - Miran's ties to Trump and the administration's influence raise alarms about the Federal Reserve's independence, with critics labeling him as a potential "mouthpiece" for Trump's economic agenda [3] - Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer expressed opposition to Miran's nomination, citing concerns for Americans affected by Trump's economic policies [3] Ongoing Legal Battles - Concurrently, a legal battle is unfolding regarding another Fed board member, Lisa Cook, who was dismissed by Trump but is contesting the allegations against her [5] - This situation adds a layer of political complexity to the FOMC meeting, making it not just an economic decision but also a matter of the Fed's independence and future personnel dynamics [5]