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从“避险资产”到“配置核心” 高净值人群增持黄金趋势凸显
最近发布的《瑞银2025年亿万富豪报告》指出,61%的亚太区亿万富豪计划增加对冲基金、发达市场股 票(50%)及黄金/贵金属(48%)的投资。 中经记者 郝亚娟 夏欣 上海、北京报道 黄金价格持续走强,也引发了高净值人群的关注。北京财富管理行业协会特约研究员、内蒙古财经大学 校外硕导杨海平接受《中国经营报》记者采访时分析,当前宏观经济背景下高净值人群增持黄金的核心 逻辑有四方面:宏观经济形势提升了黄金的投资价值,美债规模持续膨胀,全球去美元化趋势在持续演 进;全球主要央行择机增配黄金,为黄金价格提供了支撑;地缘政治的风险、金融市场风险交织变幻, 黄金的避险功能受到更多重视;全球经济增速放缓,贸易摩擦和地缘政治冲突冲击供应链,通胀压力较 大,黄金保值功能吸引力大增。 自2020年开始增加黄金配置 多项调研显示,黄金成为高净值人群资产配置的重要组成部分。胡润研究院今年发布的《中国高净值人 群品质生活报告》显示,在受访高净值群体的首选投资标的中,黄金以15.7%的占比超越A股(12%) 与基金(11.3%)。回顾2019—2025年高净值人群投资行为变化,2020年是一个重要的分水岭,黄金成 为首选投资标的并持续增 ...
美联储超预期“鸽”派降息,黄金股ETF(517520)高开高走涨超2%
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-11 02:37
Core Insights - The gold industry is experiencing a significant upward trend, with the CSI Gold Industry Index rising by 1.80% and gold stock ETFs increasing by over 2% [1][2] - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to lower interest rates by 25 basis points has contributed to a more favorable environment for gold investments, as market volatility and geopolitical risks continue to rise [2][3] - The World Gold Council forecasts a strong performance for gold in 2026, with potential price increases of 15% to 30% due to various economic factors [3] Group 1: Market Performance - The CSI Gold Industry Index (931238) has shown a strong increase of 1.80%, with leading stocks such as Shanjin International (000975) rising by 7.09% [1][2] - Gold stock ETFs (517520) have gained over 80% year-to-date, indicating robust investor interest and market performance [1][2] Group 2: Economic Factors - The Federal Reserve has reduced the federal funds rate target range to 3.50%-3.75%, which is expected to enhance market activity and support gold prices [2] - Trump's criticism of the Fed's rate cut reflects a demand for more aggressive monetary easing, which may further elevate market risk and bolster gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The World Gold Council's report highlights that gold had an exceptional year in 2025, with returns exceeding 60%, and anticipates continued strong performance in 2026 [3] - Factors such as declining U.S. Treasury yields, heightened geopolitical risks, and increased demand for safe-haven assets are expected to support gold prices in the coming years [3] - The cyclical demand and structural trends are projected to resonate, keeping gold and silver prices in an upward trajectory [3]
富达国际:长期看好中国科技股,黄金长牛行情会继续|年末盘点
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-12-11 02:31
奎菲称,中国资产中,最核心、最看好的仍是中国科技股。 2025年末,伴随美元进入弱势周期,一些亚太市场资产又孕育着长期投资机会。 年内各类负面事件以及不确定性下,大宗商品市场表现各异。其中,黄金屡创新高,白银、铜、钯金等贵金属也跟随上涨。这些趋势会否持续? 明年,各大类资产又将呈现何种趋势,有哪些机遇和风险?针对相关问题,富达国际全球多元资产主管奎菲(Matthew Quaife)接受了第一财经 记者专访。 继续看好中国科技股 在今年年初DeepSeek彰显中国科技和人工智能(AI)发展潜力后,中国科技股在今年的大部分时间都受到了内资和外资的同时青睐。富达同样长 期看好中国科技股。 "韩国股市从估值角度来看,确实非常便宜。同时,与日本一样,韩国政府也在实施对股市相当友好的政策。目前,我们虽然已经适度减仓了韩 国股市,但我们仍然偏好(韩国股市),只是不如今年第一季度我们刚刚投资时那么有吸引力。"他称,"日本可能是2026年的一个重要的投资市 场。如果我们选择投资日本股市,我们会偏好中盘股,因为中盘股企业更倾向于日本国内市场。高市新政府即将实施的一系列政策也会对日本经 济产生影响。在这种背景下,中盘股往往跑赢大盘 ...
白银!白银!上期所,最新出手
券商中国· 2025-12-10 12:30
Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have surged significantly since the end of October, with a 16% increase last month and a recent breakthrough of $60 per ounce, driven by strong buying interest in the international precious metals market [1][4]. Market Performance - As of the latest report, the London spot silver price is $60.82 per ounce, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 110.56% [4]. - The performance of other precious metals includes: - London gold at $4193.25 per ounce, down 0.35% year-to-date with a 59.79% increase [4]. - COMEX silver at $61.455 per ounce, up 109.82% year-to-date [4]. Market Dynamics - The recent price surge in silver is attributed to two main factors: 1. Increased financial allocation demand as investors seek safe-haven assets amid market volatility, leading to significant inflows into silver ETFs and related financial products [5]. 2. Strengthened industrial demand expectations due to the rapid development of sectors like artificial intelligence, new energy, and electronics, particularly in photovoltaic and electric vehicle applications [5]. - Global silver ETF holdings have shown steady growth, with the largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, holding 15,973.16 tons as of December 9, reflecting a 6% increase from the previous month [5]. Regulatory Actions - To mitigate excessive speculation and control market risks, the Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted margin ratios and price fluctuation limits for silver futures contracts on December 10 [2]. - The main silver futures contract closed at 14,373 yuan per kilogram, marking a 5.44% increase and a new historical closing price [7]. - The exchange's dual approach of increasing margin requirements and price limits aims to prevent market volatility and promote rational trading [7]. Supply and Demand Concerns - Current global silver inventories are at historical lows, with the Shanghai Futures Exchange's silver inventory down over 50% year-to-date, and the London Metal Exchange's inventory down approximately 75% from its peak in 2019 [7]. - The tight supply situation, combined with strong demand expectations, has heightened concerns about supply-demand imbalances in the market [5][7]. Investment Risks - The rapid increase in silver prices has led to premium risks in related silver funds, with some funds trading at premiums exceeding 10%. Investors are cautioned against blindly investing in high-premium fund shares, as they may face significant losses [8].
俄罗斯,开始卖黄金了
虎嗅APP· 2025-12-10 10:13
这是俄罗斯历史上首次公开将黄金储备用于财政支出。 以下文章来源于盐财经 ,作者凌川儿 盐财经 . 洞察趋势,睿智人生。《南风窗》旗下专业财经媒体。 本文来自微信公众号: 盐财经 ,作者:凌川儿,编辑:江江,题图来自:AI生成 "俄罗斯央行最近出售黄金是一个重要提醒和信号。就我个人而言,此前我也持有部分黄金作为资产 组合一部分,但最近我已卖掉。"近日,半夏投资创始人李蓓对黄金的鲜明观点,引发了广泛关注与 热议。 过去两年,中国央行等多国央行是黄金的主要买家,最近这个因子开始变化。 据新华社报道,俄罗斯中央银行11月20日向俄罗斯国际文传电讯社确认,该行已开始出售储备的实 物黄金,以弥补国家预算所需资金。 此举延续了此前与国家财富基金 (NWF) 黄金交易的操作模式,不过此前交易大多以虚拟方式进 行,政府将黄金出售给央行,或可看作是两方之间的"账面调整",黄金仍保留在国家储备中。 如今,俄罗斯央行发起的实物黄金交易亦完全是在境内进行,可以将外界关注的交易标的物现货黄 金,看作在俄联邦财政体系里扮演着"内部提款机"的角色,其所有权在央行、本土银行和相关做市商 之间转手,却不会对国际市场造成波动。 卖了多少呢? 截至 ...
现货黄金站上4200美元/盎司;区域性银行加入消费贷贴息阵营| 金融早参
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-12-10 00:57
| 2025年12月10日星期三 | 12月9日,中国再保险发布公告,公司于近日收到国家金融监督管理总局关于庄乾志先生任职资格的批 复。根据该批复,国家金融监督管理总局于2025年12月8日正式核准庄乾志先生担任董事会董事长的任 职资格,庄乾志先生自该日起正式履行董事长职务,任期至第五届董事会任期届满为止,任期届满可以 连选连任。 NO.4区域性银行加入消费贷贴息阵营 据证券日报,12月份以来,个人消费贷款财政贴息政策在四川、贵州、重庆加速落地。川黔渝三地相继 发布省级贴息实施细则,贵阳银行、贵州银行、成都银行、成都农商行等区域头部城商行、农商行同步 启动业务受理。这标志着此前未被纳入"国补"经办体系的区域性银行,正式加入消费贷补贴阵营,"国 补+地补"的协同发力格局初步形成。 NO.1央行开展1173亿元7天期逆回购操作 12月9日,央行公开市场开展1173亿元7天期逆回购操作,操作利率1.40%。Wind数据显示,当日有1563亿 元逆回购到期。 点评:央行今日开展1173亿元7天期逆回购操作的举措显示出其维持市场流动性稳定的意图。逆回购作 为短期的市场操作工具,能够有效缓解市场资金紧张状况,降低市场利率 ...
俄罗斯,开始卖黄金了
36氪· 2025-12-10 00:33
以下文章来源于盐财经 ,作者凌川儿 盐财经 . 洞察趋势,睿智人生。《南风窗》旗下专业财经媒体。 俄央行售黄金补赤字,因俄乌冲突财政承压。 文 | 凌川儿 编辑 | 江江 来源| 盐财经(ID:nfc-yancaijing) 封面来源 | Unsplash "俄罗斯央行最近出售黄金是一个重要提醒和信号。就我个人而言,此前我也持有部分黄金作为资产组合一部分,但最近我已卖掉。"近日,半夏投资创始人 李蓓对黄金的鲜明观点,引发了广泛关注与热议。 过去两年,中国央行等多国央行是黄金的主要买家,最近这个因子开始变化。 据新华社报道,俄罗斯中央银行11月20日向俄罗斯国际文传电讯社确认,该行已开始出售储备的实物黄金,以弥补国家预算所需资金。 俄罗斯中央银行开始出售储备的实物黄金 这是俄罗斯历史上首次公开将黄金储备用于财政支出。 此举延续了此前与国家财富基金(NWF)黄金交易的操作模式,不过此前交易大多以虚拟方式进行,政府将黄金出售给央行,或可看作是两方之间的"账面 调整",黄金仍保留在国家储备中。 如今,俄罗斯央行发起的实物黄金交易亦完全是在境内进行,可以将外界关注的交易标的物现货黄金,看作在俄联邦财政体系里扮演着"内部 ...
美联储决议前,投资者大量涌入美国货币市场基金,连续第二周卖出美股基金
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-12-09 14:02
Group 1 - The core sentiment in the U.S. market is dominated by risk aversion as investors withdraw from high-risk equity funds and shift significant capital into safer money market funds ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy announcement [1] - Investors net purchased approximately $104.75 billion in U.S. money market funds in the week ending December 3, marking the largest single-week net inflow since November 5, indicating a highly defensive stance in the market [1] - U.S. equity funds experienced a net sell-off of about $3.52 billion for the second consecutive week, reflecting a growing preference for safer assets amid concerns over high valuations in large-cap tech stocks [1] Group 2 - Despite expectations of potential interest rate cuts typically benefiting the stock market, investors are reducing their exposure to risk assets, with mid-cap stock funds facing net outflows for the seventh consecutive week, totaling $49.492 million [2] - Large-cap and small-cap stock funds also recorded net disposals of $476 million and $1.18 billion, respectively, indicating a widespread cautious sentiment across various market segments [2] - Defensive sectors have shown relative resilience, attracting approximately $510 million in net inflows, with industrial sector funds receiving $510 million and gold and precious metals stock funds garnering $293 million in net inflows [2] Group 3 - The fixed income market reflects a cautious investor attitude, with overall net inflows significantly shrinking [3] - Short- to medium-term investment-grade bond funds attracted $1.45 billion in net inflows, while municipal bond funds saw inflows of $737 million [3] - In contrast, short- to medium-term government and treasury bond funds experienced a reversal, recording outflows of $1.58 billion, indicating a defensive adjustment in bond portfolio allocations [3]
黄金明年如何演绎?小摩高喊5300高价,世界黄金协会给出“三种剧本”
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-12-09 09:58
2025年,在地缘政治风险、降息和央行需求的推动下,金价飙升超过60%。许多专家认为2026年还有进 一步上涨的空间,黄金作为避险资产的地位依然稳固。 在经历了历史性的2025年,即金价飙升超过60%并打破了50多项历史新高之后,投资者现在的注意力转 向了这种贵金属能否在2026年维持其上升轨迹。 黄金在年初至今的表现中领跑主要资产类别,有望创下自1979年以来的最佳年度表现,尽管风险依然存 在,但专家们认为黄金明年可能仍有上涨空间。 与往年由单一事件主导金价走势不同,今年出现了多重驱动因素共同作用的局面。 持续的央行买入、持续的地缘政治摩擦、高企的贸易不确定性、较低的利率以及美元走弱,所有这些因 素结合在一起,助推了市场对作为避险资产的黄金的需求。 根据世界黄金协会的最新报告,地缘政治紧张局势对黄金年初至今的表现贡献了约12个百分点,而美元 疲软和略低的利率又贡献了10个百分点,动能和投资者仓位占了9个点,经济扩张进一步贡献了10个 点。 各国央行也继续大举买入,使官方部门的需求保持在远高于疫情前的水平。世界黄金协会的预测 展望未来,该协会预计,推动2025年金价非凡反弹的许多力量在2026年仍将发挥作用。 ...
比特币跌破8万!六周蒸发1.2万亿,机构为何集体出逃?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-09 04:13
避险神话碎了比特币成风险放大器 文 |无言 比特币直接跌破8万关口!这可是七个月来的最低位,80553美元的价格让不少玩家傻了眼。 短短六周时间,全球加密货币市场就没了1.2万亿美元市值,这数字比好多G20国家一年的GDP还多。 12月1日当天,全网爆仓接近10亿美元,27万多投资者被市场无情清算,以太坊等主流币种跟着跳水, 跌幅都超7%,市场上的恐慌情绪简直藏不住。 之前总有人把比特币吹成"数字黄金",说它能独立于传统金融体系,扛住通胀和地缘风险。 本来想这说法多少有点道理,后来发现完全是自欺欺人。 2025年下半年这波下跌,直接把"避险资产"的神话戳破了。 比特币现在根本不是避风港,反倒成了风险放大器。 全球风险资产都在抛,它跌得最狠。这背后核心就是流动性收紧了。 市场之前都盼着美联储降息,结果美国经济数据挺顽强,通胀也没降下来,政策只能保持鹰派。 风险资产都靠流动性撑着,这一下直接被打懵了。 更有意思的是,比特币跟科技股的联动越来越紧密。 纳斯达克指数一跌,它准跟着往下走。 英伟达、微软这些科技巨头回调,加密货币就得遭更大幅度抛售。 说白了,比特币现在更像加了杠杆的科技指数。 之前还有人说它能对冲传统市 ...