Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the complexities of gold price fluctuations and emphasizes understanding its four core attributes: commodity, monetary, financial, and hedging properties, to clarify the underlying logic of its price movements [3][4]. Group 1: Gold's Four Core Attributes - **Commodity Property**: Gold prices are primarily determined by supply and demand dynamics, with demand influenced by economic cycles and market expectations. The main contributors to gold demand are jewelry, investment, and central bank purchases, while industrial demand is relatively low [5]. - **Monetary Property**: Gold is considered "hard currency" due to its scarcity, durability, and universal acceptance, serving as an effective store of value. Its price is closely linked to the US dollar index, typically decreasing when the dollar strengthens and increasing when the dollar weakens [6][9]. - **Financial Property**: Gold's investment value is shaped by real interest rates, expected inflation rates, and market liquidity. Lower real interest rates increase gold's attractiveness as a non-yielding asset, especially during periods of low interest rates or rate cuts by central banks [14][15]. - **Hedging Property**: Gold performs well in risk scenarios where market pessimism rises, making it a preferred asset over riskier investments. Historical events show that gold prices tend to rise during crises, highlighting its unique characteristics as a safe-haven asset [17][18]. Group 2: Historical Review of Gold Price Movements - Historical analysis indicates that significant price movements in gold are closely related to Federal Reserve policies, inflation changes, and central bank behaviors. Major price increases are driven by structural trends like de-dollarization and central bank diversification, alongside cyclical factors such as inflation and risk aversion [21][22]. - Price declines are often triggered by tightening monetary policies, rapid inflation declines, or central bank sell-offs. For instance, the period from 1983 to 1985 saw a drop of over 40% due to US economic recovery and interest rate hikes [23][24]. - The article highlights that current global challenges, including debt expansion and economic slowdown, have accentuated gold's monetary and hedging properties, leading to recent price surges. Notably, Ray Dalio views gold as a hedge against unsustainable debt levels, suggesting a reasonable allocation of 10% to 15% in investment portfolios [25].

黄金未来的投资前景如何？该行认为，持有黄金的长期理由并未改变。 智通财经获悉，贝莱德智库发文表示，今年一路走高的金价最近再度迎来历史新高。在美联储降息、央 行购金潮持续、地缘局势紧张的背景下，国际金价继续走强，COMEX黄金一度突破4500美元/盎司。这 也给投资者带来了新的困惑：在金价与股市齐涨的背景下，黄金资产的投资逻辑是否发生了改变？如何 把握黄金的配置机遇？贝莱德指出，黄金似乎已暂时转变为一种可进行动量交易的标的。虽然这样可能 会带来更多的短期波动，但当黄金价格走弱时，可借机适度配置。长期来看，配置黄金的底层逻辑并未 改变。 黄金常被视为避险资产。自2024年秋季开始，黄金持续走强，不到一年时间涨幅已超70%，虽然今年10 月中旬在没有明显利空的情况下金价出现了回调，但现在也已经收复失地。 今年8月底时，贝莱德曾提出了黄金即将面临美股季节性波动的可能性，以及历史上在市场波动加剧时 黄金跑赢美股的情况。但实际情况恰恰相反，除了10月初的一个糟糕的交易日，以VIX指数衡量的美股 季节性的波动并未出现。相反，美股在9月、10月上涨，直到11月初才出现小幅回调。而黄金并没有起 到分散投资的作用，反而趋向于跟随 ...

Core Insights - Gold prices are expected to continue breaking historical records by the end of 2025, with spot gold briefly surpassing the $4,500 psychological barrier before stabilizing around $4,480 [1] Group 1: Macroeconomic Factors - The strong performance of gold by the end of 2025 is driven by multiple macroeconomic factors and structural demand, including rising expectations for interest rate cuts, which significantly lower the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold [1] - A weakening dollar is reducing costs for non-U.S. buyers, thereby increasing demand, with expectations that the dollar's decline will continue into the following year [1] - Geopolitical tensions, including issues in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine situation, are heightening risk aversion, further boosting gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [1] Group 2: Structural Support - Central bank gold purchases and ETF inflows are foundational to the bull market, with global central bank gold purchases expected to reach 850 tons in 2025, reflecting a recognition of gold's value and a weakening reliance on the dollar [2] - Physical support from gold ETFs is projected to attract approximately $82 billion (equivalent to 749 tons), marking the largest inflow since 2020, indicating that both institutions and retail investors view gold as a strategic allocation rather than a short-term hedge [2] Group 3: Future Price Projections - Looking ahead to 2026, gold prices are anticipated to transition from rapid increases to a stable plateau, with forecasts suggesting prices could rise to $4,900 per ounce, driven by central bank demand and potential interest rate cuts [3] - The average price of gold in Q4 2026 is expected to reach $5,055, with a long-term target of $6,000 by 2028, assuming consistent demand from investors and central banks at an average quarterly level of 566 tons [3] - Various banks project a trading range for gold in 2026 between $4,500 and $4,700, with potential upward movement towards $5,000 if macroeconomic uncertainties persist [4]

据新华社电 黄金价格今年屡创新高，助长了韩国人购买黄金的热情。 据报道，岁末年初礼尚往来对黄金的需求，叠加担心错过上涨行情的焦虑情绪，致使市场预测金价将持 续上涨一段时间。除"黄金银行"外，近期黄金交易所交易基金（ETF)同样受韩国人追捧。 韩国《朝鲜日报》25日报道，国民银行、新韩银行和友利银行的"黄金银行"账户总余额已接近1.91万亿 韩元（约合92.44亿元人民币）。这一数字比9月底金价开始飙升时增加近5000亿韩元（24.2亿元人民 币）。 ...

全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有： 圣诞节美股休市交易提醒：12月25日全天暂停，多市场联动休市 2025年圣诞节，美股及全球多个金融市场进入假期休市模式。根据纽约证券交易所和纳斯达克 （23613.3069， 51.46， 0.22%）官方安排，美股将迎来短期交易调整，投资者需提前做好仓位规划与 资金安排，具体提醒如下： 12月25日（周四，圣诞节当日）美股全天休市，12月26日（周五）恢复全天正常交易。 1、圣诞节美股休市交易提醒：12月25日全天暂停，多市场联动休市 2、变现者对决制造者：2026年人工智能市场或迎分裂格局 3、华尔街认为帕兰提尔估值过高而弃之不顾，散户却对其趋之若鹜 4、乌克兰成立战后选举立法工作组 26日举行首次会议 5、黄金迎来自1979年以来最强劲一年 贵金属市场表现亮眼 6、穆迪首席经济学家：美联储2026年可能会多次降息 变现者对决制造者：2026年人工智能市场或迎分裂格局 2026年人工智能市场或将迎来分裂格局。 2025年最后三个月，科技股经历了暴涨暴跌的剧烈波动——循环交易、债务发行及高估值引发市场对人 工智能泡沫的担忧。 蓝鲸增长基金首席投资官斯蒂芬·姚表 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the complexities of gold price fluctuations, emphasizing that the reported "international gold price drop" reflects the wholesale price of gold, which is subject to various filters before reaching consumers [2] - The wholesale price of gold, approximately 1005 yuan per gram, is affected by operational costs and profit margins when converted into investment gold bars or jewelry, leading to a situation where a drop in wholesale price does not fully translate to consumer prices [2][3] - Consumers purchasing gold for personal reasons should focus on retail prices and brand value, while investors should pay attention to bank quotes for investment gold bars, which are closer to the actual market price [3] Group 2 - The gold recycling price serves as a reliable indicator of gold's true value, disregarding brand and craftsmanship, and often reflects a significant depreciation compared to the purchase price [5] - Current fluctuations in gold prices, particularly near historical highs, may present opportunities for investors to buy at lower costs, while consumers can take their time to select desired items without pressure from price changes [6]

2025年12月，黄金市场进入一个高度情绪化的阶段，国际金价逼近4500美元/盎司，国内足金零售价突破1400元/克，多地金店频繁更换价签，零售端的紧张 气氛肉眼可见。价格的快速上行，使"再等等"和"立刻买"之间的抉择，变得异常艰难。 一、价格冲顶之时，情绪比黄金更热 周大生珠宝店今日黄金报价为1410.00元/克，铂金为932.00元/克。 潮宏基金店的黄金价格同样标为1410.00元/克，铂金的售价也是932.00元/克。 齐鲁金店的黄金和铂金价格分别为1196.00元/克和599.00元/克。 婚庆、节庆等刚性需求在年末集中释放，放大了价格信号的影响，不少消费者并非基于明确的投资判断，出于对未来不确定性的担忧提前入场，这种情绪并 不罕见，在资产价格加速上涨的阶段，观望本身就会被视为一种风险。 二、剧烈波动背后，市场正在分层 当价格进入高位区间，波动反而成为常态，国际金价在关键点位反复拉锯，每一次冲高都伴随着短线资金兑现离场，国内市场呈现出更为明显的结构分化。 作为供应链源头的批发市场价格相对克制，终端零售价格则因品牌溢价、运营成本以及价格波动风险而保持高位，价差的存在，使黄金在不同场景下呈现出 截然不同 ...

北京商报：2025年内，一系列消费补贴政策陆续出台，各项促消费政策也呈现出从"增量拉动"到"结构 优化"的转变。您如何评价这种政策逻辑转换的必要性与有效性？展望2026年，要真正实现消费的长期 可持续增长，政策工具箱需要在哪些关键机制上实现突破？ 转自：北京日报客户端 2025年，站在"十四五"收官与"十五五"规划谋篇的历史衔接点上，中国经济在多重变局中展现出韧性， 金融市场在政策合力下保持稳健运行。 步入2026年，"十五五"启幕之际，如何进一步释放消费潜能？货币政策如何从总量宽松转向结构优化？ 人民币汇率如何在内外挑战中保持基本稳定？债市供需结构将如何演化？"内循环"与"高水平对外开 放"又该如何协同发力？ 针对多个热点话题，北京商报记者专访了兴业银行首席经济学家，兴业研究学术评审委员会主席鲁政 委，在他看来，2026年"以国内循环的稳定性对冲国际循环的不确定性"将成为我国经济发展的必然选 择，应从供需两端协同发力稳固消费增长根基；步入"十五五"后，传统货币政策工具与创新货币政策工 具均有发力空间，预计人民银行将继续降准降息；在结构性货币政策工具方面，可对当前效果较好的工 具进行"加量降价"；同时，金融服 ...

2025年，站在"十四五"收官与"十五五"规划谋篇的历史衔接点上，中国经济在多重变局中展现出韧性，金融市 场在政策合力下保持稳健运行。 步入2026年，"十五五"启幕之际，如何进一步释放消费潜能？货币政策如何从总量宽松转向结构优化？人民币 汇率如何在内外挑战中保持基本稳定？债市供需结构将如何演化？"内循环"与"高水平对外开放"又该如何协同 发力？ 针对多个热点话题，北京商报记者专访了兴业银行首席经济学家，兴业研究学术评审委员会主席鲁政委，在他 看来，2026年"以国内循环的稳定性对冲国际循环的不确定性"将成为我国经济发展的必然选择，应从供需两端 协同发力稳固消费增长根基；步入"十五五"后，传统货币政策工具与创新货币政策工具均有发力空间，预计人 民银行将继续降准降息；在结构性货币政策工具方面，可对当前效果较好的工具进行"加量降价"；同时，金融 服务实体经济的"五篇大文章"有望在基于全国碳排放权交易市场的碳金融相关业务等领域迎来进展；而"内循 环"提质升级与"高水平对外开放"的双向赋能，将进一步筑牢中国经济韧性。 加大消费补贴与信贷支持力度 北京商报：2025年内，一系列消费补贴政策陆续出台，各项促消费政策也呈现 ...

2025年，站在"十四五"收官与"十五五"规划谋篇的历史衔接点上，中国经济在多重变局中展现出韧性，金融市 场在政策合力下保持稳健运行。 步入2026年，"十五五"启幕之际，如何进一步释放消费潜能？货币政策如何从总量宽松转向结构优化？人民币 汇率如何在内外挑战中保持基本稳定？债市供需结构将如何演化？"内循环"与"高水平对外开放"又该如何协同 发力？ 针对多个热点话题，北京商报记者专访了兴业银行首席经济学家，兴业研究学术评审委员会主席鲁政委，在他 看来，2026年"以国内循环的稳定性对冲国际循环的不确定性"将成为我国经济发展的必然选择，应从供需两端 协同发力稳固消费增长根基；步入"十五五"后，传统货币政策工具与创新货币政策工具均有发力空间，预计人 民银行将继续降准降息；在结构性货币政策工具方面，可对当前效果较好的工具进行"加量降价"；同时，金融 服务实体经济的"五篇大文章"有望在基于全国碳排放权交易市场的碳金融相关业务等领域迎来进展；而"内循 环"提质升级与"高水平对外开放"的双向赋能，将进一步筑牢中国经济韧性。 加大消费补贴与信贷支持力度 北京商报：2025年内，一系列消费补贴政策陆续出台，各项促消费政策也呈现 ...