Industry Overview - The steel sector experienced a sudden surge on July 2, with Chongqing Steel (601005) seeing a dramatic increase of over 130% during trading, closing up 91.11% [1] - Other steel stocks also rose significantly, including China Iron Titanium (20.97%), Ansteel (12.73%), China Oriental Group (11.45%), and Maanshan Steel (3.59%) [1] - The central government's emphasis on promoting a unified national market and addressing low-price competition is expected to impact the steel industry positively [1] Supply-Side Reforms - Market interpretations suggest that expectations for supply-side reforms in the steel industry have strengthened [2] - Reports indicate that approximately half of the steel mills in Tangshan have received notifications regarding production cuts, which could reduce daily sinter production by 30,000 tons [2] - The steel industry faces challenges from a sluggish real estate market, limited infrastructure investment, and increased export pressure [2] Financial Performance - The steel industry showed signs of recovery in profitability during the first half of 2025, with total revenue for black metal smelting and rolling processing reaching 31,364.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.0% [2] - The total profit for the industry turned positive, amounting to 316.9 billion yuan, indicating a recovery from previous losses [2] Cost and Profitability - Major raw material prices have declined, leading to a noticeable reduction in steel mills' costs, which has supported profit recovery [3] - Future supply adjustments could further suppress raw material prices and improve the supply-demand relationship, potentially enhancing steel profits [3] Investment Opportunities - Analysts suggest that the steel industry is likely to see a structural improvement, with some companies currently undervalued, presenting investment opportunities [3] - Companies with high gross margins and strong cost control are expected to benefit from valuation recovery [3] Company-Specific Developments - Ansteel (00347) has developed a new composite pipe technology for deep-sea oil and gas transport, enhancing its competitive position [4] - Maanshan Steel (00323) reported a revenue of approximately 19.425 billion yuan for Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 4.74%, but managed to narrow its net loss significantly [4] - Chongqing Steel (01053) reported a revenue of 6.614 billion yuan for Q1 2025, with a net loss reduction of 64.82% compared to the previous year [5] - China Oriental Group (00581) reported sales of approximately 1.8 million tons of steel products in Q1 2025, with a gross profit margin of 100-150 yuan per ton [5]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the economic governance and policy changes in various industries, particularly focusing on the steel, non-ferrous metals, coal, and engineering machinery sectors [1][5][6][13]. Key Insights and Arguments Economic Governance and Policy Changes - The Central Financial Committee emphasizes the need to regulate low-price disorderly competition and promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity, which is crucial for building a unified national market [1][3][4]. - Current economic policies have shifted from controlling high prices to managing low prices, reflecting a focus on high-quality development rather than mere scale expansion [5][6]. - The governance approach has transitioned from anti-monopoly to addressing disorderly competition, indicating a response to insufficient total demand and low-price competition [5][6]. Steel Industry - The steel industry is experiencing a demand downturn due to real estate sector weaknesses, with manufacturing demand now accounting for over 50% of total demand [1][16]. - The average net profit of listed companies in the steel sector has turned negative for three consecutive years, indicating a supply-side contraction [1][17]. - The steel demand cycle is gradually bottoming out, with exports performing better than expected [1][16]. - Future steel prices are expected to rebound as demand stabilizes and supply contracts, with a projected upturn in the industry over the next two to three years [19]. Non-Ferrous Metals - The non-ferrous metals market is characterized by resource scarcity and the interplay of U.S.-China liquidity cycles, with a focus on tin and copper due to their technological applications [21][22]. - Tin demand is expected to rise due to its applications in technology, despite a temporary increase in supply from the resumption of production in certain regions [21][22]. - Copper prices are anticipated to reach historical highs driven by U.S. debt relief and seasonal demand [22]. Coal Market - The coal market is showing signs of price stabilization, with overall coal prices slowly rising after a challenging first half of 2025 [23][24]. - The relationship between electricity consumption and GDP is expected to remain stable, with new policies reducing the expected returns on renewable energy installations [23][24]. - Future coal supply is likely to decrease, particularly in Xinjiang, impacting China's overall coal production landscape [25][26]. Engineering Machinery - The engineering machinery sector is facing severe internal competition, but leading companies are beginning to raise product prices, which may improve profit margins [29][30]. - Domestic sales are projected to grow by 15%-20% this year, with exports performing better than initially expected [31][32]. - The cyclical growth in the machinery industry is expected to continue for the next three to five years, benefiting major manufacturers [34][35]. Other Important but Overlooked Content - The governance of low-price competition and the orderly exit of backward production capacity are seen as critical to addressing the internal competition and ensuring sustainable economic growth [3][4][6]. - The focus on high-quality development and the regulation of local government behaviors are essential for stabilizing the market and fostering investment opportunities in various sectors [5][6][12]. - The anticipated structural investment opportunities arising from the exit of underperforming companies in the manufacturing sector could lead to a healthier market environment [12][13].

Group 1 - The central government emphasizes the need to advance the construction of a unified national market, focusing on addressing key challenges and regulating low-price disorderly competition among enterprises to enhance product quality and facilitate the orderly exit of outdated capacity [1] - The "involution" competition in various industries is primarily characterized by low-price disorderly competition, driven by complex factors such as economic structural adjustments and excessive investment in emerging industries like photovoltaics and new energy vehicles [1][2] - The implementation of a series of policies to promote consumption and investment has stabilized the economy, but low price levels persist, as evidenced by a 6.5% increase in total retail sales since the launch of the old-for-new consumption initiative, while the CPI remains low [1] Group 2 - In May, the PPI decreased by 3.3%, and the accounts receivable of large industrial enterprises reached 26.4 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 9.0%, indicating a slowdown in the industrial supply-demand cycle and a decline in enterprise profits by 9.1% [2] - To address the supply-demand imbalance, it is necessary to regulate low-price disorderly competition and promote the orderly exit of outdated capacity, while also implementing production restrictions in industries with significant supply-demand issues [2] - The need for improved government behavior is highlighted, as local government policies have stimulated redundant investments and hindered the exit of outdated capacity, necessitating the establishment of a high-quality development assessment system [2][3] Group 3 - The persistence of "involution" competition is attributed to the failure of substandard products and bankrupt enterprises to exit the market promptly, leading to safety and quality standards being compromised [3] - There is a call for enhanced market supervision to prevent the proliferation of counterfeit and inferior products, particularly in the e-commerce sector, where platforms often evade responsibility for product quality [3] - The need to improve the enterprise exit system is emphasized, including the establishment of a bankruptcy mechanism and reforms to facilitate enterprise deregistration, which would help eliminate unreasonable competition [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Financial Committee's sixth meeting emphasized the need to promote the construction of a unified national market and high-quality development of the marine economy, highlighting the importance of establishing a correct performance view among officials to overcome local protectionism and unfair competition [1][3]. Group 1: Unified National Market Construction - The meeting stressed the "five unifications" principle: unifying market basic systems, infrastructure, government behavior standards, regulatory enforcement, and resource markets to eliminate barriers to the unified market [1]. - Local protectionism, driven by incorrect performance views, creates obstacles to the unified market, leading to market segmentation and inefficient resource allocation [1][3]. - The need to regulate government procurement and bidding processes, as well as enhance transparency in local investment attraction, was highlighted as critical issues to address [2]. Group 2: Correct Performance View - Officials are urged to overcome local biases and align their policies with the overall requirements for advancing the unified national market, avoiding low-level repeated construction and excessive homogeneous competition [3][4]. - The government plans to clean up local regulations that hinder the unified market, which is seen as a crucial step in establishing a correct performance view [4]. - The importance of improving high-quality development assessment systems and performance evaluation frameworks for officials was emphasized, focusing on development quality, business environment, and public welfare [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The recent emphasis on "strengthening investment attraction information disclosure" by the Central Financial Committee aims to promote a more transparent and fair competitive environment in local investment attraction practices, reducing the space for "policy arbitrage" in fund attraction [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Changes - Over the past year, multiple policies have been introduced to regulate local investment attraction practices, including the prohibition of illegal tax reductions and subsidies [2][3]. - The implementation of the "Fair Competition Review Regulations" in August 2024 and other measures aims to guide local governments away from simplistic investment attraction methods, encouraging a focus on long-term development and improved investment quality [3]. Group 2: Impact on Venture Capital Institutions - The new directive on information disclosure is expected to bring three main benefits to venture capital institutions: easier due diligence, reduced post-investment risks, and the ability to identify "value gaps" in less publicized but promising cities [4]. - Venture capital institutions will need to shift their investment logic to focus more on fundamental aspects such as core technology, business models, team capabilities, and market prospects, rather than relying on short-term government subsidies [4]. Group 3: Adaptation Strategies for Venture Capital - Venture capital institutions should reassess their partnerships with government limited partners (LPs) by understanding local industrial plans and policy execution credibility [6]. - Developing a "national industrial map" investment strategy will help guide resource allocation for invested companies based on regional strengths [6]. - Strengthening the ability to provide strategic, market, and supply chain support will be crucial for helping invested companies succeed in a more equitable market environment [6].

新华社北京7月1日电 中共中央总书记、国家主席、中央军委主席、中央财 经委员会主任习近平7月1日上午主持召开中央财经委员会第六次会议,研 会议指出,纵深推进全国统一大市场建设,基本要求是"五统一、一开 放",即统一市场基础制度、统一市场基础设施、统一政府行为尺度、统 一市场监管执法、统一要素资源市场,持续扩大对内对外开放。会议强调, 纵深推进全国统一大市场建设,要聚焦重点难点,依法依规治理企业低价 无序竞争,引导企业提升产品品质,推动落后产能有序退出;规范政府采 购和招标投标,加强对中标结果的公平性审查,规范地方招商引资,加强 招商引资信息披露;着力推动内外贸一体化发展,畅通出口转内销路径, 培育一批内外贸优质企业;持续开展规范涉企执法专项行动,健全有利于 市场统一的财税体制、统计核算制度和信用体系:引导干部树立和践行正 确政绩观,完善高质量发展考核体系和干部政绩考核评价体系。 数据来源:国家统计局,格林大华期货研究院整理 同2024年"924"政策预期推升股股票和期货市场多头情绪一样，新的会议精神再次被解读为供给侧改革2.0版的吹风。从广期所的碳酸 鯉、多晶硅、多晶硅到郑商所的纯碱、玻璃,再到大商所的焦煤焦 ...

股指日报 股指期货日报 2025年7月2日 王梦颖（Z0015429）、廖臣悦 (F03120676) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 重要资讯 1. 美联储主席鲍威尔表示，如果不是因为美国总统特朗普的关税政策，美联储目前应该会采取更宽松的货币 政策。在被问及7月份降息的可能性时，鲍威尔称不会排除任何可能性，这将取决于数据。他表示，美联 储"绝大多数"成员确实预计今年晚些时候再次降息是合适的。 2.中央财经委员会召开第六次会议，研究纵深推进全国统一大市场建设、海洋经济高质量发展等问题。 核心观点 今日两市成交额延续缩量，中小盘指数终结连涨，回落调整。如我们昨日所言，持续缩量下，指数上行动能 减弱，难以维持上行趋势。昨日中央财经委员会第六次会议召开，受此影响，相关板块例如海洋经济板块今 日大涨。当前信息面较平淡，红利指数连续两日领涨，表明市场情绪偏谨慎。不过今日各期指均贴水收敛， 尤其IC、IM贴水收敛幅度较大，可见市场对指数未来走势不算悲观，下方空间有限，预计短期区间震荡为 主。本月重点关注7月下旬召开的中央政治局，将分析下半年经济形势，部署宏观政策方向，或对股指产生一 定影响。 策略推荐 ...

热点资讯 1、中央财经委员会召开第六次会议，研究纵深推进全国统一大市场建设、海洋经济高质量发展等问题。会议强调，要依法依规 治理企业低价无序竞争，规范政府采购和招标投标、招商引资，着力推动内外贸一体化发展，持续开展规范涉企执法专项行 动，健全有利于市场统一的财税体制、统计核算制度和信用体系。要加强顶层设计，加大政策支持力度，鼓励引导社会资本积 极参与发展海洋经济。 2、6月财新中国制造业PMI录得50.4，高于5月2.1个百分点，与4月持平，重回临界点以上。新订单指数反弹至略高于临界点水 平。生产指数亦重回扩张区间，创近七个月来新高。 早盘速递 2025/7/2 板块持仓 (300,000) (200,000) (100,000) 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 Wind农副产品 Wind谷物 Wind化工 Wind能源 Wind煤焦钢矿 Wind有色 Wind商品综合 Wind软商品 Wind油脂油料 Wind贵金属 Wind非金属建材 近五日商品期货板块持仓变动（手） 2025-07-01 2025-06-30 2025-06-27 20 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - On July 2, the JM2509 contract of coking coal closed at 843.5, up 3.18%. The spot price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal was reported at 733, down 4 yuan/ton. The market sentiment improved significantly. The coking coal market is expected to move in a volatile manner [2]. - On July 2, the J2509 contract of coke closed at 1442.0, up 3.15%. The fourth round of price cuts for coke has been implemented. The coke market is also expected to move in a volatile manner [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Coking Coal**: The closing price of the JM main - contract was 843.50 yuan/ton, up 29.00 yuan; the contract's open interest was 729,229.00 hands, down 18,701.00 hands; the net position of the top 20 contracts was - 46,931.00 hands, up 5,965.00 hands; the spread between the JM1 - 9 contracts was 48.00 yuan/ton, up 5.50 yuan; the number of coking coal warehouse receipts was 0.00 [2]. - **Coke**: The closing price of the J main - contract was 1442.00 yuan/ton, up 53.50 yuan; the contract's open interest was 57,171.00 hands, up 869.00 hands; the net position of the top 20 contracts was - 3,635.00 hands, down 266.00 hands; the spread between the J1 - 9 contracts was 37.50 yuan/ton, down 1.50 yuan; the number of coke warehouse receipts was 90.00 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Coking Coal**: The price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal at Ganqimao Port was 733.00 yuan/ton, down 5.00 yuan; Russian coking coal forward spot was 115.00 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; the price of Australian coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1230.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Shanxi - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1230.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of medium - sulfur coking coal in Lingshi, Jinzhong, Shanxi was 930.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 930.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Coke**: The price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Tangshan was 1390.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port was 1220.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1320.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1220.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream and Industry Situation - **Coking Coal**: The inventory of raw coal in 110 coal washing plants was 312.17 million tons, down 9.11 million tons; the inventory of clean coal was 214.98 million tons, down 16.89 million tons; the operating rate of 110 coal washing plants was 59.72%, up 0.62 percentage points; the raw coal production was 40,328.40 million tons, up 1,397.80 million tons; the import volume of coal and lignite was 3,604.00 million tons, down 179.00 million tons; the daily average output of raw coal in 523 coking coal mines was 185.00 thousand tons, down 4.50 thousand tons; the inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 495.12 million tons, down 28.85 million tons; the total inventory of coking coal in independent coking enterprises was 808.98 million tons, up 13.19 million tons; the inventory of coking coal in 247 steel mills was 781.21 million tons, up 6.55 million tons; the available days of coking coal in independent coking enterprises were 12.39 days, up 0.10 days; the import volume of coking coal was 738.69 million tons, down 150.65 million tons; the production of coking coal was 4,070.27 million tons, up 144.11 million tons [2]. - **Coke**: The inventory of coke at 18 ports was 251.89 million tons, down 4.32 million tons; the inventory of coke in independent coking enterprises was 113.03 million tons, down 2.55 million tons; the inventory of coke in 247 steel mills was 627.75 million tons, down 6.45 million tons; the available days of coke in 247 steel mills were 11.22 days, down 0.20 days; the export volume of coke and semi - coke was 68.00 million tons, up 13.00 million tons; the production of coke was 4,237.60 million tons, up 77.60 million tons; the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 73.35%, down 0.22 percentage points; the average loss per ton of coke in independent coking plants was 46 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.84%, unchanged; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.85%, up 0.04 percentage points; the crude steel production was 8,654.50 million tons, up 52.60 million tons [2].

热轧卷板产业链日报 2025/7/2 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任 自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任 何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引 用、删节和修改。 研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | HC 主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,191 | +55↑ HC 主力合约持仓量(手) | 1595758 | +73130↑ | | | HC 合约前20名净持仓(手) | 51,339 | +3521↑ HC10-1合约价差(元/吨) | -6 | -6↓ | | | HC 上期所仓单日报(日， ...