1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The aluminum market may face pressure due to stable supply and weak demand. The fundamentals of alumina may be in a stage of slightly converging supply and relatively stable demand, while the fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum may be in a stage of relatively stable supply and slightly reduced demand [6]. - It is recommended to conduct light - position short - selling transactions at high prices for the main contract of Shanghai aluminum and light - position oscillating transactions for the main contract of alumina, and pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control [7]. - Considering the expected oscillating and pressured operation of aluminum prices in the future, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short volatility [59]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: Shanghai aluminum showed an oscillating trend, with a weekly change of - 0.42%, closing at 20,070 yuan/ton. Alumina trended weakly, with a weekly change of - 6.53%, closing at 2,962 yuan/ton [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Internationally, there is uncertainty about the Fed's policy. Domestically, the economy is showing positive signs. Fundamentally, there may be a slight reduction in bauxite supply. Alumina supply may slightly decrease, while demand remains stable. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is relatively sufficient, and demand is in a transition from peak to off - season, with a controllable decline [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Prices**: As of May 30, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai aluminum was 20,175 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton (- 0.22%) from May 23. As of May 29, 2025, the closing price of LME aluminum was 2,450.5 US dollars/ton, down 25 US dollars/ton (- 1.01%) from May 22 [10]. - **Position Volume**: As of May 30, 2025, the position volume of Shanghai aluminum was 514,908 lots, down 3,005 lots (- 0.58%) from May 23. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum was 4,602 lots, an increase of 7,950 lots from May 23 [13]. - **Futures Spreads**: As of May 30, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures spread was 2,155 yuan/ton, an increase of 95 yuan/ton from May 23. The copper - aluminum futures spread was 57,530 yuan/ton, a decrease of 105 yuan/ton from May 23 [19]. - **Spot Prices**: As of May 30, 2025, the spot price of A00 aluminum ingots was 20,240 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan/ton (- 0.78%) from May 23. The spot premium was 110 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton from the previous week [22]. - **Inventory**: As of May 29, 2025, the LME electrolytic aluminum inventory was 375,075 tons, down 13,825 tons (- 3.55%) from May 21. As of May 30, 2025, the SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory was 124,433 tons, down 16,856 tons (- 11.93%) from the previous week. The domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 482,000 tons, down 37,000 tons (- 7.13%) from May 22 [26]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Bauxite**: In April 2025, the monthly import volume of bauxite was 20.684 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.67% and a year - on - year increase of 45.44%. From January to April, the cumulative import volume was 67.7011 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 34.2% [29]. - **Alumina**: As of May 30, 2025, the alumina futures price was 3,081 yuan/ton, down 141 yuan/ton (- 4.38%) from May 23. In April 2025, the alumina output was 7.323 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%. From January to April, the cumulative output was 29.919 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.7%. The import volume was 107,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.16% and a year - on - year decrease of 90.12%. The export volume was 260,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.33% and a year - on - year increase of 100% [33][36]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In April 2025, the import volume of electrolytic aluminum was 250,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.7%. From January to April, the cumulative import volume was 833,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.32%. The export volume was 13,700 tons. From January to April, the cumulative export volume was 34,200 tons. In April 2025, the output of electrolytic aluminum was 375,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.2%. From January to April, the cumulative output was 1.4793 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4% [41][44]. - **Aluminum Products**: In April 2025, the output of aluminum products was 576,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%. From January to April, the cumulative output was 2.1117 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. The import volume was 370,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%. The export volume was 520,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%. From January to April, the cumulative import volume was 1.32 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.4%, and the export volume was 1.88 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.7% [47]. - **Aluminum Alloys**: In April 2025, the output of aluminum alloys was 152,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.3%. From January to April, the cumulative output was 576,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.7%. The import volume was 86,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 30.66%. The export volume was 16,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.9%. From January to April, the cumulative import volume was 367,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.22%, and the export volume was 70,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.02% [50]. - **Real Estate**: In April 2025, the real estate development climate index was 93.86, a decrease of 0.09 from the previous month and an increase of 2.06 from the same period last year. From January to April 2024, the new housing construction area was 178.3584 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 24.13%. The housing completion area was 156.4785 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 3.37% [53]. - **Infrastructure and Automobiles**: From January to April 2024, infrastructure investment increased by 10.85% year - on - year. In April 2025, China's automobile sales volume was 2,589,610 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 9.78%. The automobile production volume was 2,618,769 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 8.86% [56]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - Given the expected oscillating and pressured operation of aluminum prices in the future, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short volatility [59].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai copper futures market is expected to be in a state where supply is sufficient and demand is relatively stable. The Fed's decision - making is affected by uncertainties, while China's economic indicators are improving. The copper concentrate processing fee is falling, and the international supply is tight, but China has sufficient port inventories and more raw material substitutes. The supply is likely to increase steadily, and the demand is stable due to the offset of seasonal consumption decline by domestic policies and trade recovery [4]. - It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Highlights - **Market Performance**: The weekly line of the Shanghai copper main contract first rose and then fell, with a weekly change of - 0.24% and an amplitude of 1.41%. The closing price of the main contract was 77,600 yuan/ton [4]. - **International and Domestic Situations**: Abroad, the Fed's policy decision - making is uncertain; in China, economic indicators are improving, and debt sustainability is enhanced [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The copper concentrate processing fee is falling, and the international supply is tight, but China has sufficient port inventories and more raw material substitutes. The supply is expected to increase steadily, and the demand is relatively stable [4]. - **Strategy**: Light - position oscillating trading with attention to risk control [5] 3.2. Spot and Futures Market - **Futures Market**: As of May 30, 2025, the basis of the Shanghai copper main contract was 365 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 430 yuan/ton. The main contract price was 77,600 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 190 yuan/ton, and the position was 172,994 lots, a week - on - week increase of 20,589 lots [10]. - **Spot Market**: As of May 30, 2025, the average spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 78,235 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 280 yuan/ton. The premium of Shanghai copper bills of lading decreased, and the long - position held an advantage. The average CIF premium of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 101 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 6 US dollars/ton. The net long position of the top 20 in Shanghai copper was 8,386 lots, an increase of 304 lots from last week [14][21]. - **Option Market**: As of May 30, 2025, the short - term implied volatility of the at - the - money option contract of the Shanghai copper main contract fell to around the 50th percentile of historical volatility. The put - call ratio of the Shanghai copper option position was 1.1701, a decrease of 0.0943 from last week [26] 3.3. Upstream Situation - **Raw Material Prices**: The price of copper concentrates in the main domestic mining areas weakened, and the processing fee for blister copper strengthened. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi was 68,550 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 310 yuan/ton. The processing fee for southern blister copper was 800 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 100 yuan/ton [29]. - **Imports and Price Differences**: As of April 2025, the monthly import volume of copper ores and concentrates was 2.9244 million tons, an increase of 531,300 tons from March, a growth of 22.2% and a year - on - year increase of 25.6%. The price difference between refined and scrap copper (tax - included) was 1,493.41 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 100 yuan/ton [34]. - **Production and Inventory**: As of March 2025, the global monthly production of copper concentrates was 1.969 million tons, an increase of 202,000 tons from February, a growth of 11.43%. The global capacity utilization rate was 79.3%, an increase of 0.3% from February. The inventory of copper concentrates at seven domestic ports was 740,000 tons, a decrease of 147,000 tons from the previous period [39] 3.4. Industry Situation - **Supply - Refined Copper Production**: As of April 2025, the monthly production of refined copper in China was 1.254 million tons, an increase of 6,000 tons from March, a growth of 0.48% and a year - on - year increase of 10.39%. As of March 2025, the global monthly production of refined copper (primary + recycled) was 2.426 million tons, an increase of 234,000 tons from February, a growth of 10.68%. The capacity utilization rate was 82.2%, a decrease of 0.6% from February [42]. - **Supply - Imports**: As of April 2025, the monthly import volume of refined copper was 300,181.941 tons, a decrease of 54,093.53 tons from March, a decline of 15.27% and a year - on - year decline of 1.83%. The import profit and loss amount was - 606.91 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 657.24 yuan/ton [49][50]. - **Supply - Inventory**: As of the latest data, the total LME inventory decreased by 12,350 tons from last week, the total COMEX inventory increased by 4,870 tons from last week, and the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 722 tons from last week. The total social inventory was 139,300 tons, a decrease of 1,800 tons from last week [55] 3.5. Downstream and Application - **Demand - Copper Products Production and Imports**: As of April 2025, the monthly production of copper products was 2.081 million tons, a decrease of 44,200 tons from March, a decline of 2.08%. The monthly import volume of copper products was 440,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from March, a decline of 6.38% and a year - on - year decline of 0% [61]. - **Application - Power Grid and Appliance Production**: As of April 2025, the cumulative investment in power and grid construction increased by 1.6% and 14.6% year - on - year respectively. The monthly production of washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, and color TVs increased by 2.6%, 1.6%, - 10.7%, - 15.3%, and - 9.8% year - on - year respectively [65]. - **Application - Real Estate and Integrated Circuit Production**: As of April 2025, the cumulative real estate development investment was 277.2957 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3% and a month - on - month increase of 39.32%. The cumulative production of integrated circuits was 15.089 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 5.4% and a month - on - month increase of 37.84% [71] 3.6. Overall Situation - **Global Supply and Demand**: As of March 2025, according to ICSG statistics, the global supply - demand balance was in a state of oversupply, with a monthly value of 17,000 tons. According to WBMS statistics, the cumulative global supply - demand balance was 20,500 tons [75]

Core Viewpoint - Many countries are eager to reach agreements with the United States, indicating a positive shift in trade policy [1] Group 1 - U.S. Secretary of Commerce, Gina Raimondo, highlighted the interest from various nations in forming trade agreements with the U.S. [1] - The trade policy is advancing, suggesting potential improvements in international trade relations [1] - Elon Musk and Donald Trump maintain a good friendship, which may influence business and trade dynamics [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS Global Wealth Management's Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi anticipates continued market volatility due to ongoing news related to trade and fiscal policies [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - The company expects U.S. stocks to rise over the next 12 months, although the near-term gains for this year may be limited [1]

跟踪全球贸易动向 +订阅 金十数据5月30日讯，白宫贸易顾问纳瓦罗表示，如果特朗普政府最终在围绕其贸易政策的法庭斗争中 败诉，政府将寻求通过其他方式征收关税。纳瓦罗在白宫对记者说，在法院发出暂停令后，美国的关税 将暂时保持不变，美国政府仍在与其他国家进行对话，继续进行贸易谈判。 纳瓦罗：即使在法庭上败诉，白宫也会找到征收关税的方法 ...

周三，美国一家贸易法院裁定特朗普的大部分关税将不会生效，这一全面裁决表明总统越权了。经济学 家表示，这一裁决虽然带来了一定的缓解，但又给经济状况增添了另一层不确定性。 此前美国银行研究所报告显示，2月至4月期间，领取失业救济的高收入家庭数量同比大幅增加，4月中 低收入家庭申领人数同比亦显著上升。经济学家预计，受季节性波动数据调整难度影响，6月初请人数 可能突破今年20.5万至24.3万的区间，但这一趋势与近年相似，未必反映劳动力市场状况的实质性转 变。 美联储今晨的会议纪要显示，尽管决策者认为劳动力市场总体平衡，但"评估认为未来几个月劳动力市 场存在走弱风险"，并指出就业前景"存在相当大的不确定性"，其结果"在很大程度上取决于贸易政策及 其他政府政策的演变"。 智通财经APP获悉，美国至5月24日当周初请失业金人数 24万人，预期23万人，前值由22.7万人修正为 22.6万人。美国至5月17日当周续请失业金人数 191.9万人，预期189.4万人，前值由190.3万人修正为 189.3万人。 续请失业金人数数据与非农就业报告调查周相关，且刚刚创下周期新高，这可能导致失业率上升。续请 失业金人数涵盖了政府为计 ...

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy experienced a contraction at the beginning of the year, with the first quarter GDP annualized rate revised to -0.2%, slightly better than the initial estimate of -0.3% [1] - Consumer spending, a key driver of economic growth, increased by only 1.2%, down from the initial estimate of 1.8%, marking the lowest growth rate in nearly two years [1][2] - Net exports negatively impacted GDP by nearly 5 percentage points, slightly worse than initial predictions [1] Consumer Spending and Business Investment - The downward revision in consumer spending was primarily due to weakened demand for automobiles and reduced spending on services, including healthcare and insurance [4] - Business investment showed stronger performance, increasing by 10.3%, up from a prior estimate of 9.8% [2] Trade and Tariff Impact - A surge in imports, driven by businesses trying to stock up before tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, contributed to the economic slowdown [2] - The White House has since rescinded or delayed some punitive tariffs, which has alleviated some economic concerns, although tariff rates remain higher than pre-Trump levels [2] Future Economic Outlook - Economists expect a rebound in GDP for the second quarter due to reduced tariffs and the accumulation of imported goods into larger inventories, which may stimulate economic growth [3] - The overall demand in the economy was weaker than initially anticipated, with final sales to domestic private buyers growing by only 2.5%, the lowest level in nearly two years [3]

Group 1 - European stock indices opened higher, with Germany's DAX index rising by 0.9% [1] - France's CAC40 index increased by 1% [1] - The UK's FTSE 100 index saw a rise of 0.4% [1] - The Euro Stoxx 50 index gained 0.97% [1] Group 2 - The increase in European stock indices follows a U.S. court's halt on Trump's "Liberation Day" trade policy [1]

日本经济再生大臣赤泽亮正：国家安全与贸易政策是不同的事项，不能作为一个整体进行谈判。 ...

Group 1 - The current trade policies are significant drivers of market performance, with the S&P 500 index experiencing a 2% increase on May 27, marking its largest single-day gain since May 12, reflecting easing tensions between the US and EU [1] - Following a threat from Trump to impose a 50% tariff on the EU, the market reacted negatively, but a subsequent phone call with EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen led to a postponement of tariffs until July 9, resulting in a strong market rebound [1] - On May 27, the Dow Jones rose over 700 points, the S&P 500 increased by over 2%, and the Nasdaq led with a 2.5% gain, while the 10-year US Treasury yield fell to 4.432% [1] Group 2 - Investors are optimistic that the tense trade situation has eased, with some believing that the most severe trade tensions have dissipated, suggesting that significant market declines are unlikely in the short term [2] - Economic data released on May 27, including a rebound in consumer confidence and lower-than-expected decline in durable goods demand, contributed to investor optimism [2] - Despite the market's mild recovery, concerns exist regarding overly optimistic sentiment, as tariffs have already negatively impacted the economy, with the adjusted GDP growth rate contracting by 0.3% in Q1 compared to a 2.4% increase in Q4 of the previous year [2] Group 3 - Citigroup's Chief Economist Nathan Sheets expressed concerns about Trump's aggressive tariff policies, predicting a global growth rate of 2.3% for the year, down from 2.8% last year, with developed markets particularly affected [3] - Sheets also indicated that the proposed tax legislation could keep the US deficit high, averaging around 6% of GDP over the next decade [3] - The Wall Street Journal noted that US stock valuations remain relatively high by historical standards, leading to a mismatch between market sentiment and uncertain economic outlook [3]