金十数据5月22日讯，美国初请失业金降至四周低点，进一步证明，面对与贸易政策相关的不确定性日 益增加，就业市场仍保持健康。美国劳工部周四公布的数据显示，截至5月17日当周初请失业金人数减 少2,000人，至22.7万人，与预期基本一致。初请失业金人数表明，尽管对关税的担忧加剧，以及特朗普 政府缩减联邦政府的行动带来的连锁反应，但企业对员工配备水平相对满意。尽管特朗普政府在部分关 税问题上做出了让步，但美联储穆萨勒姆仍认为，贸易政策可能会给就业市场带来压力。他表示："总 的来说，关税可能会抑制经济活动，导致劳动力市场进一步疲软。"包括耐克和亚马逊在内的多家大公 司最近都表示正在裁员。失去联邦政府资助的学校和企业也宣布裁员，其中包括哥伦比亚大学。 美国初请数据降至四周以来最低水平 ...

服务行业：关注物流业出口相关政策限制。 1）欧盟表示，将对进入欧盟的小包裹收取手续费，这些小包裹大部 分来自中国。对此，外交部发言人表示，具体的问题建议向中方的主管部门了解，中方认为营造一个开放包容的 贸易环境符合各方的共同利益，希望欧方能够恪守开放的承诺，为中国企业提供公平透明非歧视的营商环境，为 中欧经贸合作创造有利条件。 宏观日报 | 2025-05-22 关注物流业出口相关政策限制 中观事件总览 生产行业：关注"俩新"政策推进情况。 1）上海市人民政府办公厅印发《上海市提振消费专项行动方案》。其中提 到，加力扩围实施消费品以旧换新。促进汽车消费，落实好国家汽车报废更新补贴和我市汽车置换更新补贴政策。 落实国家家电以旧换新补贴政策，新增手机、平板、智能手表（手环）等数码产品购新补贴，加力支持绿色家电 家居家装消费。 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 数据来源：央视，iFind，华泰期货研究院 行业总览 上游：1）农业：鸡蛋价格近期震荡。2）有色：铝近期价格持续回升。3）黑色：玻璃、橡胶价格短期回落。 中游：1）化工：PTA开工率回升；PX开工率近期回落。2）基建：沥 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the soybean meal and corn sectors is neutral [3][7] Core View - The soybean meal price is expected to be supported in the short - term due to macro - policy impacts, despite weak downstream demand and slow inventory clearance in domestic oil mills. Attention should be paid to Sino - US trade policies and the arrival of new - season Brazilian soybeans. The corn price is expected to fluctuate slightly downward in April, affected by factors such as high port inventories, high inventory in deep - processing enterprises, and sufficient substitute supply [3][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2509 contract was 2934 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton (+1.56%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2505 contract was 2552 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan/ton (+1.67%) from the previous day. - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 2960 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 2860 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 2890 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2480 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [1] - Exports: Anec raised the May export forecast of Brazilian soybeans to 14.52 million tons and Brazilian soybean meal to 236,000 tons. As of May 18, the EU's 24/25 - year - to - date imports of soybeans, soybean meal, and rapeseed were all higher than the same period last year [2] Market News and Important Data (Corn) - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2505 contract was 2324 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton (+0.52%) from the previous day; the corn starch 2505 contract was 2659 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton (+0.11%) from the previous day. - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2750 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [4][5] - Sowing Progress: As of May 18, the US corn sowing progress was 78%, ahead of the historical average, and the emergence rate was 50% [5] Market Analysis (Soybean Meal) - The monthly intended planting area report has some impact on US soybean prices, but the market focuses more on end - of - month policies. The US tariff policy and China's counter - measures have escalated Sino - US trade tensions, which will affect Sino - US soybean trade. Although Brazil's soybean harvest is good this year, the increasing import demand from other countries for Brazilian soybeans has strengthened the Brazilian premium, raising domestic import costs and supporting the domestic soybean meal price [3] Market Analysis (Corn) - Supply: The sale of on - the - ground grain has basically ended this month, and the remaining corn is mainly in the hands of traders. High inventories at north - south ports suppress the corn price. - Demand: Deep - processing enterprises have relatively high inventories, and feed enterprises mainly sign long - term contracts, with stable demand. - Policy: The tariff policy has a positive but limited impact on the market sentiment. The small price difference with wheat and the upcoming large - scale wheat harvest in June pose challenges to the corn price [6] Strategy - For soybean meal: Neutral - For corn: Neutral, with the corn price expected to fluctuate slightly downward in April [3][7]

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing volatility due to ongoing trade policy uncertainties, with a notable decline in the Copper Monthly Metal Index (MMI) by 4.23% from March to April, and analysts are struggling to navigate these changes [1] Trade Policy Uncertainty - Recent trade agreements between the US, China, and the UK have alleviated some concerns regarding tariffs, leading to renewed optimism about the global economy, although demand worries persist [1][3] - The uncertainty surrounding international trade policies may negatively impact global economic prospects and copper demand, with the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) adjusting its growth rate forecasts downward [2] Supply and Demand Outlook - The ICSG does not foresee significant supply issues, predicting a surplus in the copper market for 2025 and 2026, contrary to previous concerns about potential shortages [1][2] - The anticipated surplus for 2025 is expected to more than double compared to earlier estimates, providing a buffer for the market as trade policies evolve [2] Price Trends and Inventory Levels - Global copper inventories have increased in May, failing to support copper prices, with rising inventories indicating stable demand conditions despite fluctuations [4] - The correlation between inventory levels and copper prices is weak, but the increase in COMEX inventories, alongside rising SHFE stocks, has dampened bullish expectations for copper prices [4] Currency Influence - The US dollar index has stabilized, which typically inversely correlates with copper prices, exerting pressure on copper prices as the dollar recovers from previous declines [5] - Speculation about potential US dollar depreciation has increased, although US officials clarified that exchange rate policy is not part of ongoing trade negotiations [5][6] - The Federal Reserve has maintained a cautious stance on interest rate cuts, which could further impact the dollar and subsequently influence copper prices [6]

Group 1 - The G7 finance ministers' meeting in Canada focuses on the impact of U.S. trade policies, particularly the tariffs imposed by the U.S. government [1] - Canadian Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland emphasized the need to address fundamental issues such as manufacturing overcapacity, non-market behavior, and financial crimes [1] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen aims to encourage G7 allies to respond more effectively to China's economic policies during the meeting [1] Group 2 - There is an expectation that the G7 finance ministers will not announce a new trade agreement, as the U.S. administration prioritizes its own interests [1] - Support for Ukraine and sanctions against Russia are key topics, with Ukrainian Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko advocating for stronger sanctions during the meeting [1] - The G7 finance ministers are anticipated to issue a statement supporting Ukraine against Russia, although the wording will be broad and not specific regarding sanctions [1]

以下文章来源于CFC商品策略研究 ，作者CFC商品策略研究 CFC商品策略研究 . 好的研报应该提供打破经验，观念，陈规或惯例的视角，提供自我逻辑审查的意识自觉。阅读体验应该 是一次历险，也许是一次漂流，它并不把你带到任何一个安全的港湾去，但更像是提供一种类似在悬崖 边临渊回眸，另做选择的逻辑启发，或自我反讽的邀请。 文 | 魏鑫 来源 | CFC商品策略研究 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 中美发布日内瓦联合声明以来，商品市场整体呈现反弹态势，多品种价格回升至4月初水 平。本轮行情的驱动有需求端预期回暖的因素，同时部分品种供给收缩驱动反弹，如 PX-PTA、苯乙烯、氧化铝等。 短期市场可能逐步消化90天暂缓关税窗口期内出现的需求端主导的强现实，而在后续的 商品交易中，宏观上仍依赖于贸易政策变化、美国货币政策调整，以及国内的政策实 效。而微观层面，需要注意交付周期较短商品的需求集中释放带来的变化，以及供应端 收缩品种的"利润-复产"决策的调整。 而对于"订单-采购原料-生产-交付"这一流程来说，部分工序复杂的商品难以实现快速交 付，美国对此类商品的需求未必会在关税缓征期内明显增长。对于交付周期较短的如 ...

Group 1 - The IMF calls for the U.S. to reduce its fiscal deficit in light of rising debt burdens, emphasizing that the current deficit is too large [1][2] - Moody's has downgraded the U.S. credit rating due to concerns over increasing debt, with projections indicating that the deficit-to-GDP ratio could rise from 6.4% last year to nearly 9% by 2035 if proposed tax cuts are implemented [1][2] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary attributes the downgrade to the previous administration's policies and expresses a commitment to reducing the deficit-to-GDP ratio to 3% before the end of the Trump administration [1][2] Group 2 - The U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to reach 98% in the fiscal year 2024, up from 73% a decade ago, indicating a continuous rise in debt levels [2] - Despite expectations of a decrease in the fiscal deficit due to rising tariff revenues, these forecasts do not account for the potential impacts of Trump's tax cut proposals currently under congressional review [2][4] - Concerns over the deficit and Moody's downgrade have led to a weakening of the dollar and a rise in U.S. Treasury yields, with the 10-year Treasury yield reaching 5.04%, the highest level in 2023 [3][4] Group 3 - The expansion of the deficit implies that the government will need to issue more bonds, raising questions about the stability of the U.S. market among domestic and international investors [4] - The IMF has revised down its economic growth forecast for the U.S. in 2025 to 1.8% and for global growth to 2.8%, factoring in the effects of Trump's tariffs [4] - Recent announcements of significant tariff reductions between the U.S. and China are seen as positive developments, although the actual tariff rates remain higher than last year, and uncertainties persist regarding the implementation of new tax rates [5]

Market Demand - The demand for N121 carbon black is increasing due to its essential role as an industrial raw material, particularly in industries such as rubber, plastics, and coatings [2] - The rise of new industries, including electric vehicles and renewable energy, is significantly driving the demand for N121 carbon black, contributing to price increases [2] Supply Factors - The supply of N121 carbon black is concentrated among a few large companies, leading to limited availability and a tight market [2] - The production capacity and technological capabilities of established chemical companies play a crucial role in determining the supply of high-quality N121 carbon black [2] - The presence of technological barriers makes it difficult for new suppliers to enter the market, further constraining supply and pushing prices higher [2] External Influences - International trade policies and environmental regulations can impact the price of N121 carbon black by affecting import and export dynamics, thus influencing supply and demand relationships [3] - Stricter environmental regulations increase production costs for carbon black manufacturers, indirectly raising the market price of N121 carbon black [3] Market Competition - The competitive landscape of the N121 carbon black market, including the number of suppliers and market share distribution, directly affects pricing [3] - Market monopolies can lead to higher prices, while intense competition may pressure suppliers to lower prices to gain market share [3]

卡塔尔中央银行行长班达尔·阿勒萨尼20日在首都多哈表示，美国贸易政策和关税措施对卡塔尔经济的 间接影响令人担忧。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，韩国早期的贸易数据显示，本月韩国的出口再次下降，尤其是对美国的出口。首尔 和华盛顿就美国对韩国出口征收关税的谈判仍在继续。韩国海关周三公布的数据显示，5月前20天出口 额较上年同期下滑2.4%。相比之下，根据4月份全月工作日差异调整后的出口最初报告下降了0.7%。整 体进口下降2.5%，造成3亿美元的贸易逆差。 对美国的出口下降14.6%。美国总统特朗普对出口汽车、钢铁和铝征收25%的关税。他还针对韩国，全 面征收25%的关税，从4月初开始，在谈判期间，关税暂时降至10%，为期90天。 汽车和汽车零部件出口分别下降6.3%和10.7%，钢铁产品出口下降12.1%。半导体是韩国最大的海外收 入来源，帮助韩国整体出口保持了17.3%的增长。 韩国经济对出口的依赖使其特别容易受到特朗普贸易政策的影响。但是，总统选举前的政治不确定性阻 碍了尽早达成协议的努力。 韩国产业经济研究院分析师Cho Chuel说："除非韩国设法在汽车关税问题上达成妥协，否则推动早日达 成协议是没有意义的。" 尽量减少特朗普关税措施的影响将是韩国下一任领导人的首要任务，他将需要重振韩国经济，韩国经济 因前总统去年12月短暂 ...