2025年中国钢材和钢制品出口增长明显，带动钢材产量呈现增长态势，增量主要来自两个方面：一方面 是钢材净出口延续增长；另一方面是以机电产品为代表的出口增长，带动制造业用钢需求增加。同时也 需注意，以房地产为代表的内需预期依然偏弱，是钢材需求的主要拖累项。 伴随中国城镇化和工业化进程，中国钢材需求量持续增长，2020年表观需求量达到10.08亿吨峰值， 2021年随着地产行业下滑，钢材需求量见顶回落。根据世界钢协数据，2024年中国钢材需求量8.6亿 吨，与2020年相比累计下滑15%。 中国钢材需求主要分为建筑需求和制造业需求。建筑需求主要指房地产行业和基建行业；制造业主要的 用钢行业有机械、汽车、造船、新能源、家电和集装箱等。近几年随着中国经济结构转型，钢材需求呈 现建筑需求占比持续下降、制造业需求持续上升的特点。据中国钢铁工业协会披露，2024年制造业需求 占比提升至50%。 近5年中国钢材出口量持续增长，2025年钢材净出口量比2021年累计增长近6000万吨，年均增幅为 20%。 制造业中，用钢量大的行业依次是机械、金属制品、汽车、新能源、造船、家电、集装箱等，近几年在 全球具备产业优势的汽车、新能源 ...

内需是拉动经济增长主动力与稳定锚。今年以来，针对经济运行中面临的风险挑战，各地区、各部门按 照党中央决策部署，加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，及时出台和有效落实一系列扩大国内需求、促 进产业升级、畅通经济循环的政策措施，对于支持经济平稳运行发挥了重要作用。 近期召开的中央经济工作会议提出，我国经济发展中老问题、新挑战仍然不少，外部环境变化影响加 深，国内供强需弱矛盾突出，重点领域风险隐患较多。 在部署2026年经济工作时，会议将"坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场"放在了首位。"大国经济的重要 特征是回旋余地大，内部可循环，能够独立自主、自立自强。"中央财办分管日常工作的副主任、中央 农办主任韩文秀表示，要进一步开拓视野、创新思路，努力在扩大消费和投资、发展科技和产业、促进 城乡融合和区域协调发展等方面，培育形成更多新的增长点，开辟发展新空间。 投资是扩大内需的重要抓手。根据中央经济工作会议部署，2026年要推动投资止跌回稳，适当增加中央 预算内投资规模，优化实施"两重"项目，优化地方政府专项债券用途管理，继续发挥新型政策性金融工 具作用，有效激发民间投资活力。高质量推进城市更新。 在国家政策和金融管理部门的指引 ...

人民财讯12月18日电，国家发展改革委固定资产投资司发表文章《着力扩大有效投资》，文章指出，切 实管好用好政府投资。保持合理政府投资力度，优化政府投资结构，加强政府投资全生命周期管理。进 一步明确中央和地方投资方向和重点，提高民生类政府投资比重。强化"两重"性质、坚持自上而下、注 重软硬结合，高质量推进"两重"建设。管好用好中央预算内投资，进一步提高项目质量和投资计划执行 效率。研究调整地方政府专项债券项目"自审自发"试点范围，进一步优化专项债券项目和资金管理机 制。统筹用好各类政府投资，在工作基础较好的地方探索编制全口径政府投资计划，更好统筹政府投资 需求和能力。强化政府投资项目全过程监督管理，加快项目建设和资金使用进度，防止资金沉淀闲置、 挤占挪用。 ...

一是消费需求扩大。消费品以旧换新政策发力显效，带动家电、通讯等相关商品销售增长加快，促进了 商品消费需求扩大。1至11月份，限额以上单位家用电器和音像器材类、文化办公用品类、通讯器材类 商品零售额同比分别增长14.8%、18.2%和20.9%。提振消费专项行动深入实施，文化体育、网络娱乐等 服务性消费需求持续释放。1至11月份，服务零售额中，文体休闲服务类、通讯信息服务类零售额同比 增速均超过10%。 二是重点投资增加。大规模设备更新政策效应显现，企业推动设备更新、加快改造升级意愿增强，设备 投资较快增长，促进了投资扩大，也有利于企业竞争力提升。1至11月份，设备工器具购置投资同比增 长12.2%，拉动全部投资增长1.8个百分点。"两重"建设持续推进，重点领域相关投资继续扩大。1至11 月份，电力热力生产和供应业投资增长12.5%，互联网和相关服务、水上运输业投资分别增长20.7%和 8.9%。 三是生产带动有力。"两重""两新"等政策措施深入实施，促进了市场需求释放，拉动相关产品生产，带 动工业生产增长，也支持了产业升级。1至11月份，规模以上装备制造业增加值同比增长9.3%，占全部 规模以上工业的比重达到 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in China's macroeconomic indicators due to weak domestic demand and increased external uncertainties, while suggesting that major economic indicators such as industrial production and consumption may stabilize in November due to coordinated policy efforts and resilient external demand [3][4]. Economic Indicators - The predicted year-on-year growth rate for industrial added value in November is 5.0%, slightly higher than the previous month's 4.9% [4][6]. - The forecast for the year-on-year growth rate of retail sales of consumer goods in November is 3.09%, up from 2.9% in the previous month [4][9]. - The predicted year-on-year growth rate for fixed asset investment from January to November is -2.1%, lower than the previous month's -1.7% [4][13]. Industrial Growth - Industrial added value is expected to see a slight increase, with predictions ranging from 5.0% to 5.3% year-on-year growth for November [6][7]. - The manufacturing PMI improved to 49.2%, indicating a slight recovery in market confidence, although it remains below the threshold [6][8]. Consumer Spending - The "old-for-new" consumption policy has significantly supported consumer spending, with related sales exceeding 2.5 trillion yuan and benefiting over 360 million people [9]. - The "Double 11" shopping festival contributed to a 17.6% year-on-year increase in total online sales, although the average daily sales showed a decline of 6.0% compared to the previous year [10]. Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment is under pressure, with predictions indicating a further decline in November due to reduced infrastructure spending and weak manufacturing investment [13][14]. - The introduction of new policy financial tools aims to support investment in high-tech manufacturing and digital economy sectors [14][15]. Infrastructure Investment - The expansion of infrastructure REITs is seen as a key measure for stabilizing investment, with a significant number of projects already launched [16][17]. - The government has allocated substantial funds for long-term special bonds to support major investment projects, reflecting a strategic approach to infrastructure development [15][16].

Core Viewpoint - The State Council's recent meeting emphasizes the strategic, forward-looking, and holistic approach to the "Two Major" construction, aiming to enhance the participation of private capital in state-dominated sectors, thereby stimulating market vitality and improving resource allocation efficiency [1][2]. Group 1: Strategic Value of Private Capital Participation - The core strategic value of encouraging private capital in the "Two Major" construction lies in stimulating market vitality and enhancing resource allocation efficiency, particularly in infrastructure, public services, and emerging industries [2]. - Private capital can alleviate government financial pressure and enhance investment precision and sustainability, while also accelerating major project implementation and promoting technological upgrades [2]. Group 2: Suitable Fields for Private Capital - The most urgent and suitable areas for private capital involvement are new infrastructure projects, especially in 5G base stations, industrial internet, AI platforms, and data centers, which have significant investment gaps [3]. - New infrastructure is crucial for digital economic development and can effectively stimulate new business models and investment multiplier effects [3]. Group 3: Structural Barriers to Participation - Private capital faces structural barriers such as implicit market access barriers, financing channel constraints, and a lack of risk-sharing and return assurance mechanisms [4]. - Complex qualification reviews and lengthy approval processes hinder private capital participation in "Two Major" projects, while high financing costs and unclear risk-sharing mechanisms further deter investment [4]. Group 4: Solutions to Overcome Barriers - Recommendations include eliminating market access barriers, simplifying policy environments, and providing "one-stop" services to enhance transparency and support for private enterprises [4][5]. - Expanding financing channels and lowering costs through specialized loans and government-led funds can attract more long-term capital [5]. Group 5: Innovative Financing Tools - Innovative financing tools such as REITs, ABS, and concession models can effectively link private capital with "Two Major" projects [5][6]. - REITs can revitalize existing assets and achieve a closed funding loop, while ABS can enhance liquidity through cash flow securitization [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is allocating significant funding through ultra-long-term special bonds to support "hard investment" projects, reflecting a strategic approach to enhance national infrastructure and security capabilities [2][4]. Group 1: Funding and Projects - In 2024 and 2025, China will issue 7,000 billion and 8,000 billion yuan respectively in ultra-long-term special bonds to support 1,465 and 1,459 "hard investment" projects [2][3]. - The "Two Heavy" construction initiative aims to integrate major tasks from the 14th and 15th Five-Year Plans, showcasing the institutional advantages of concentrating efforts on significant projects [2][4]. Group 2: Sector-Specific Developments - In new urbanization, the government is enhancing urban underground pipeline systems, improving safety resilience [3]. - Major transportation infrastructure projects along the Yangtze River, such as the Three Gorges waterway and high-speed rail, are being actively promoted [3]. - For food security, large-scale modernization of irrigation systems is planned to establish concentrated grain production bases [3]. - In social welfare, the construction and renovation of high schools and hospital wards are being supported to improve public services [3]. Group 3: Industry Growth Opportunities - The "Two Heavy" construction will create new growth opportunities for related upstream and downstream industries, particularly in urban underground pipeline systems [4]. - An estimated 600,000 kilometers of urban gas, water supply, and heating pipelines will require renovation over the next five years, with an investment demand of approximately 4 trillion yuan [4]. - The combination of "hard investment" and "soft construction" is essential for sustainable project outcomes, ensuring long-term effectiveness [4][5]. Group 4: Interaction Between Hard and Soft Investments - "Hard investment" refers to traditional infrastructure, while "soft construction" includes new facilities like data centers and industrial internet, addressing the needs of the new development stage [5]. - The interaction between "hard investment" and "soft construction" is crucial for overcoming management challenges in related industries [5]. - Innovative financing models are being explored to attract long-term institutional funds for project investments, promoting market-oriented reforms in utility pricing [5].

粮食安全方面，整装谋划实施安徽淠史杭、四川都江堰、内蒙古河套等千万亩级特大型灌区现代化改 造，加快构建集中连片粮食生产基地。 社会民生方面，支持人口流入重点城市新建和改扩建高中664所，新增普通高中学位超过100万个。支持 改造病房1.5万间，改善群众就医条件。推动超过30个"双一流"高校新校区进入大规模建设阶段，加快 补齐高校学生宿舍等短板，改善基本办学条件。 本报北京11月28日电 （记者刘志强）记者从国家发展改革委获悉：去年以来，国家发展改革委会同有 关部门和各地方，突出国家重大战略实施和重点领域安全能力建设性质要求，坚持自上而下、注重软硬 结合，推动"两重"建设取得阶段性进展。去年和今年，分别安排7000亿元、8000亿元超长期特别国债， 支持1465个、1459个"硬投资"项目建设；同步推进规划编制、政策制定和体制机制创新，出台实施了一 系列"软建设"务实举措。 分领域看，新型城镇化方面，推动建设改造燃气、供排水、供热等城市地下管网，加快健全管网运行维 护管理机制，显著提升城市安全韧性水平。 长江沿线重大交通基础设施方面，积极推进三峡水运新通道、沪渝蓉沿江高铁、武汉至重庆高速公路等 重大交通基础设施 ...

本报北京11月28日电 （记者刘志强）记者从国家发展改革委获悉：去年以来，国家发展改革委会同有 关部门和各地方，突出国家重大战略实施和重点领域安全能力建设性质要求，坚持自上而下、注重软硬 结合，推动"两重"建设取得阶段性进展。去年和今年，分别安排7000亿元、8000亿元超长期特别国债， 支持1465个、1459个"硬投资"项目建设；同步推进规划编制、政策制定和体制机制创新，出台实施了一 系列"软建设"务实举措。 分领域看，新型城镇化方面，推动建设改造燃气、供排水、供热等城市地下管网，加快健全管网运行维 护管理机制，显著提升城市安全韧性水平。 长江沿线重大交通基础设施方面，积极推进三峡水运新通道、沪渝蓉沿江高铁、武汉至重庆高速公路等 重大交通基础设施建设，持续完善长江干流综合立体交通网。 粮食安全方面，整装谋划实施安徽淠史杭、四川都江堰、内蒙古河套等千万亩级特大型灌区现代化改 造，加快构建集中连片粮食生产基地。 社会民生方面，支持人口流入重点城市新建和改扩建高中664所，新增普通高中学位超过100万个。支持 改造病房1.5万间，改善群众就医条件。推动超过30个"双一流"高校新校区进入大规模建设阶段，加快 补齐 ...

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) emphasizes the implementation of major national strategies and the construction of key areas, increasing "hard investment" projects while also promoting a series of "soft construction" practical measures to achieve phased progress in the "two重" construction [1][4][6] Group 1: Financial Commitment - In 2024 and 2025, China will allocate 700 billion yuan and 800 billion yuan respectively in special long-term bonds to support 1,465 and 1,459 "hard investment" projects [4] - The NDRC will simultaneously advance planning, policy formulation, and institutional innovation to implement various "soft construction" measures [4] Group 2: Infrastructure Development - In the area of new urbanization, the focus will be on the construction and renovation of urban underground pipelines for gas, water supply, and heating, significantly enhancing urban safety resilience [10] - Major transportation infrastructure along the Yangtze River will be actively promoted, including the new shipping channel of the Three Gorges and the Shanghai-Chongqing-Chengdu high-speed railway, to continuously improve the comprehensive transportation network along the Yangtze River [13] Group 3: Food Security - Plans are underway for the modernization of large-scale irrigation areas, such as the Heishihang in Anhui, Dujiangyan in Sichuan, and Hetao in Inner Mongolia, to accelerate the establishment of concentrated and contiguous grain production bases [17] Group 4: Social Welfare - Support will be provided for the construction and expansion of 664 high schools in key cities with population inflow, adding over 1 million ordinary high school places [19] - The renovation of 15,000 hospital wards will be supported to improve medical conditions for the public, alongside the construction of new campuses for over 30 "Double First-Class" universities to enhance basic educational facilities [19]