近日，瑞银、摩根大通、富达国际等多家机构发布2026年展望，认为2025年以来，境外长线资金呈现积极流入中国股 市的特征，中国资产在盈利增长、创新加速及估值吸引力下具备持续反弹基础。 摩根士丹利披露的数据显示，截至今年11月份，境外长线资金通过沪深港通等渠道净买入约100亿美元的A股及H股， 与2024年约170亿美元的资金流出形成鲜明对比。 《南华早报》近日发文称，投资者在等待美国就业报告影响美联储利率的结果，科技股估值受压、风险意愿减弱，导 致港股跌至三周低位。 对此，香港SPDB国际分析师Melody Lai表示："没有新催化剂，对明年美联储降息的不确定性影响了流动性。股票进 入整固阶段，情绪将大幅波动。现在还不是逢低买入的时候。" Value Partners也认为："短期来看，中国股市预计将维 持区间波动。" 但报道也提到，总部位于香港的投资管理公司Value Partners的多元资产首席投资官Kelly Chung表示："（中国股市）估 值不高，加上宏观经济环境疲软，投资者继续关注盈利能力更高、增长潜力更大的AI和技术行业，消费板块的投资兴 趣仍然疲软。" ...

责任编辑：刘万里 SF014 责任编辑：刘万里 SF014 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a reduction in the federal funds rate target range to 3.5% to 3.75%, marking the third consecutive rate cut since September and the sixth since the current easing cycle began in September 2024 [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Internal Dynamics - The recent meeting revealed significant internal dissent within the Federal Open Market Committee, with 9 members supporting the 25 basis point cut and 3 opposing it, marking the highest number of dissenting votes since September 2019 [3]. - The Fed's dual mandate of promoting maximum employment while maintaining price stability is increasingly challenged, as the U.S. economy shows signs of slowing growth and rising unemployment [3][4]. - Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged ongoing inflation pressures due to recent tariff adjustments, describing them as a "one-time shock," while emphasizing that monetary policy does not have a preset path [4]. Group 2: Future Rate Cut Expectations - Market expectations suggest two additional rate cuts in 2026, but the distribution of forecasts among Fed officials is highly varied, indicating uncertainty about future monetary policy [6][8]. - Analysts predict that the first half of 2026 may see concentrated rate cuts due to persistent labor market weakness, while the second half could enter a "wait-and-see" phase as economic conditions stabilize [6][8]. - The upcoming change in Fed leadership and the U.S. midterm elections in 2026 are significant variables that could influence future monetary policy decisions [7]. Group 3: Impact on Global Markets - The Fed's rate cut is expected to weaken the U.S. dollar, potentially leading to a relative appreciation of the Chinese yuan, which could lower costs for overseas education, shopping, and travel for consumers [10]. - Lower U.S. Treasury yields resulting from the rate cut may enhance the attractiveness of Chinese assets, potentially increasing capital inflows into emerging markets [10][11]. - The Fed's actions provide a favorable window for China's monetary policy to be more autonomous, with expectations of a resilient yuan and positive performance in Chinese assets amid a backdrop of moderate U.S. dollar liquidity [11][12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Morgan Stanley predicts a significant rise in the Chinese stock market by 2026, driven by normalized valuations and measures to curb overcapacity, with an expected increase of approximately 18% for the MSCI China Index and about 12% for the CSI 300 Index [1] - The MSCI China Index has already seen a cumulative increase of over 23% this year, and since its low on January 13, it has risen more than 30%, indicating a strong recovery momentum in the Chinese stock market [1] - The MSCI Hong Kong Index is expected to rise by 18%, supported by capital flows and a recovery in the real estate market [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley forecasts a profit growth rate of 9% to 15% for the three major indices next year, providing fundamental support for the stock market's rise [1] - HSBC Private Bank shares an optimistic outlook for the Hong Kong market, setting a target for the Hang Seng Index to reach 31,000 points by the end of 2026, representing a 22% increase from the current closing price [1] - Measures to boost domestic demand in China are expected to enhance corporate profit margins, creating favorable conditions for stock market growth, alongside a stabilizing real estate market, expanding retail activities, active IPO projects, and growth in the tourism sector [1]

#报告 高盛：近期中国路演的关键宏观议题辩论——境内投资者比境外客户更担心持续的房价下跌和内需疲弱；客户对中国股市持积极态度......None (@None):None ...

Group 1 - The Shanghai Stock Exchange reported that in November, A-share new accounts reached 2.3814 million, a month-on-month increase of 3.1%, but a year-on-year decrease of 11.75%. Cumulatively, there have been 24.8402 million new accounts in the A-share market this year, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.95% [1] - The CSI 300 index has risen approximately 16% year-to-date, comparable to the performance of the S&P 500 index, while the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index is expected to achieve its largest annual gain since 2017 [1] Group 2 - Valuations and stable returns are attracting foreign investors back to the Chinese stock market. Morgan Stanley's Chief China Equity Strategist, Laura Wang, stated that the return of foreign investors marks the beginning of a gradual redistribution process [2] - Guotai Junan Securities indicated that the period from December 2025 to February 2026 will be a window for upward resonance of policies, liquidity, and fundamentals in China, recommending an increase in holdings in the Chinese market and a bullish stance on the cross-year market [2] - Dongwu Securities believes that the trading structure in December is expected to improve, with macro liquidity likely to maintain reasonable allocation, potentially leading to an early spring market rally [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the effectiveness of the MACD golden cross signal in identifying stocks with strong upward momentum, suggesting potential investment opportunities in these stocks [1] Group 1 - The MACD golden cross signal has formed, indicating a bullish trend for certain stocks [1] - The analysis highlights that stocks showing this signal have performed well recently, suggesting a positive market sentiment [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Cathay Securities is optimistic about the prospects of the Chinese market, indicating that the stock index is entering a favorable zone for investment, with expectations for gradual stabilization and a year-end rally, suggesting significant upward potential and a good opportunity for accumulation [1] Group 2 - The A500 ETF by E Fund tracks the CSI A500 Index, which consists of 500 large-cap, liquid securities across 91 of the 93 sub-industries, showing a slight decline of 0.1% [2] - The A100 ETF by E Fund tracks the CSI A100 Index, comprising 100 large-cap, liquid securities that represent key industries, reflecting a 1.3% increase [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in the Chinese stock market is not indicative of systemic risk, as macroeconomic data remains stable, and the drop is attributed to external market conditions and emotional factors [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - The market pullback is characterized as a short-term phenomenon influenced by geopolitical factors and the futures settlement date, leading to a stronger emotional release than usual [1] - A significant number of investors are exiting the market, but once the current matrix stabilizes, a substantial rebound is anticipated [1] Group 2: External Influences - Following a significant drop in U.S. stocks, relevant authorities quickly intervened to stabilize market expectations [1] - The probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December has risen to over 50%, which positively impacted U.S. stocks and led to a rebound in Chinese concept stocks [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The end of the interest rate hike and balance sheet reduction cycle began in September, indicating that future monetary policy will focus on the timing and amount of liquidity injected into the market [1] - A weekly-level rebound is expected in the upcoming week, suggesting a positive outlook for the market [1]

农产品板块，白糖、生猪跌超1%，红枣涨超1% 智通财经：瑞银投资银行中国股票策略研究主管王宗豪在2026年展望报告中指出，预计中国股市将迎来又一个丰年，因包括创新领域发展等许多有利的驱动 因素将继续支撑市场。MSCI中国指数明年末目标位为100，较当前有14%的上涨空间。 智通财经：下任美联储主席的热门人选、现任美联储理事沃勒周一表示，支持在12月的政策会议上再次降息。他称，他越来越担心劳动力市场及招聘活动急 剧放缓。他表示，"劳动力市场依旧疲软，且已接近增长失速的临界水平"，同时剔除关税影响后的通胀 "已相对接近" 美联储2%的目标水平。 | | 化工 | | | 黑色金属 | | | 有色金属 | | | 油脂油料 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 橡胶 rum | | 20号胶 nrm | 螺纹钢 rbm | | 铁矿石 im | 氧化铝 aom 铝合金 adm | | 碳酸锂 lcm | ə qalında qal | 豆二 bm | | 15295.00 0.33% | | 12345.00 ...