Macroeconomic Overview - Trump's administration has significantly impacted both the US and global situations, with economic turbulence reflected in the decline of the S&P 500 index and the US dollar index, alongside volatility in the US bond market [1] - The US economy shows weakness across multiple sectors, with Trump attributing these issues to Biden's term, asserting that economic recovery is forthcoming [1] - Domestic challenges include calls for new tax reform and a looming trade war, with the Republican Party facing difficulties ahead of the midterm elections [1] - Internationally, trade negotiations with Europe and Japan are progressing slowly, while discussions with China regarding tariffs are ongoing, with China demanding sincerity from the US [1] - Geopolitical tensions include a potential ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, a mineral agreement between the US and Ukraine, strained US-Iran relations, and a shift in Saudi policies [1] - Upcoming decisions from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England are anticipated, with expectations for the Fed to maintain interest rates and the Bank of England to cut rates, contributing to uncertainty in the US economic outlook [1] US Dollar Index - The US dollar index experienced a downward trend, with a high of 100.304 and a low of 99.364, closing at 99.996 [2] - The weekly analysis indicates resistance at the 103.30 level, suggesting a bearish outlook for the dollar index in the medium term [2] - On the daily chart, the price has broken above the 99.30 resistance, indicating potential for further upward movement if it maintains above this support level [2] Gold Market - Gold prices showed volatility, reaching a high of 3269.13 and a low of 3222.59, closing at 3240.53 [4] - The monthly analysis indicates a correction after three months of gains, with a focus on market risks as May approaches [4] - The weekly support level is identified at 3070, while the key resistance level is at 3310, which will determine future price movements [4] Euro and USD Exchange Rate - The EUR/USD pair exhibited fluctuations, with a low of 1.1273 and a high of 1.1380, closing at 1.1298 [6] - Long-term analysis suggests support at 1.0800, with a continued bullish outlook despite recent price corrections [7] - Short-term trading strategies indicate a focus on the 1.1300-1.1000 support area, with potential for upward movement if this support holds [7]

Core Viewpoint - The tariff war initiated by Trump has become a significant political burden for the Republican Party, with many members secretly opposing the tariffs but hesitant to publicly criticize the president [1][5][10]. Group 1: Republican Concerns - Republican strategists express that many members are reluctant to oppose Trump openly due to the political costs involved, hoping instead for the Supreme Court to intervene and uphold the constitutional authority of Congress over taxation [5][10]. - Polls indicate that the tariff policy is unpopular, and its prolonged existence could jeopardize the re-election prospects of these members [5][10]. - Concerns are widespread among Republican senators about the potential for Trump's tariff policies to become permanent, which could lead to significant political ramifications in the upcoming midterm elections [10][12]. Group 2: Economic Implications - Senator Ron Johnson describes tariffs as a "blunt instrument" that harms both the economy and consumers, questioning the true purpose of the tariff war [7][8]. - The fear of economic recession due to the tariffs is causing anxiety among Republican members regarding their electoral futures, with some drawing parallels to the 1982 midterm elections when the party lost numerous seats due to economic issues [12][10]. Group 3: Legislative Actions - A group of seven Republican senators is advocating for legislation that would require congressional approval for tariff policies, countering Trump's desire for unilateral presidential authority [14][16]. - Prominent Republican figures, including Ted Cruz and Rand Paul, have publicly criticized the tariff policies, emphasizing the need for Congress to reclaim its constitutional power over trade and tariffs [16][12].