投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 专业研究·创造价值 2025 年 9 月 2 日 金融期权 股指走势分化 核心观点 今日各股指走势有所分化，上证 50 与沪深 300 指数表现为震荡整 理，中证 500 与中证 1000 指数表现为震荡下跌。沪深京三市全天成交额 29124亿元，较上日放量 1348 亿元。由于部分股票已经实现较大涨幅，获 利资金的止盈需求有所上升，因此前期涨幅较大的中证 500 与中证 1000 指 数存在技术性调整的风险。不过目前股市成交金额仍处于较高水平，股市风 险偏好整体仍偏向积极，中长期来看股市的上行逻辑仍存。反内卷政策与促 消费政策分别从供应、需求两端推动供需结构优化，促进价格指数温和回 升，促进企业利润修复。资金面，融资余额快速上升，非银存款激增，长期 资金持续入市，股市增量资金的持续流入推动股票估值修复逻辑升温。总的 来说，短期内市场资金有所分歧，短期内股指预计保持宽幅震荡为主。 目前期权隐含波动率持续回升，考虑到股指中长线向上，可以继续持 有牛市价差或比例价差温和看多。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3 ...

Core Insights - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 472 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.80% [1] - The net profit for the same period reached 27.50 million yuan, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 124.29% [1] - The company's non-recurring net profit was 26.61 million yuan, which is a year-on-year growth of 130.01% [1] Financial Performance - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 38.52%, an increase of 2.01 percentage points compared to the previous year [1] - The gross profit amount for this reporting period was 181.79 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.86% [1] Strategic Factors - The company attributes its performance improvements to ongoing optimization of product structure and benefits from national consumption promotion policies [1] - Enhanced efficiency in online sales has contributed to the increase in revenue [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report is bullish on the long - term trend of stock index futures, maintaining a positive outlook on the long - bull market of the stock index [3]. 2. Core View The current adjustment of the stock index is beneficial for its long - term development. Although there was a pull - back in the market on the day, the long - term upward trend remains unchanged, and the long - bull market of the stock index is still expected [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - **Policy Situation**: Domestically, the Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption next month and has formulated measures to promote service exports. Overseas, the EU responded to the US threat of tariff retaliation on digital regulation [1]. - **Spot Market**: A - share indexes generally declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.76% to 3800.35 points, and only the communication sector rising. The trading volume of the two markets reached 3.2 trillion yuan. In the US, the three major stock indexes rose slightly, with the Dow Jones up 0.32% to 45565.23 points [1]. - **Futures Market**: The basis of stock index futures rebounded, with the current - month contracts of IH and IF at a premium. The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures increased simultaneously [2]. Strategy The current adjustment is conducive to the long - term trend of the stock index. The support levels at 3800 and 3700 points should be monitored, and the long - term upward trend of the stock index is still optimistic [3]. Chart Summary - **Macroeconomic Charts**: Include the relationship between the US dollar index, US Treasury yields, RMB exchange rate and A - share trends [6]. - **Spot Market Tracking Charts**: Present the daily performance of major domestic stock indexes, trading volume of the two markets, and margin trading balance [13][14]. - **Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts**: Show the trading volume, open interest, basis, and inter - delivery spreads of different stock index futures contracts [17][37][44].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - For IH2509, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is upward, the intraday view is oscillation with a slight upward trend, and the overall view is upward, supported by positive policy expectations [1]. - For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is oscillation with a slight upward trend, the medium - term view is upward, and the overall view is upward. Although the stock market had a technical adjustment yesterday due to profit - taking of some funds, the previous rebound was supported by policy - side positive expectations and loose liquidity in the capital market. However, as the stock index has risen continuously, the valuation has reached a relatively high historical quantile level, and the short - term profit - taking willingness of funds has increased. In general, the stock index will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **IH2509**: Short - term (within a week) is oscillation, medium - term (two weeks to one month) is upward, intraday is oscillation with a slight upward trend, and the overall view is upward. The core logic is that positive policy expectations provide strong support [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **IF, IH, IC, IM**: Yesterday, the stock indexes oscillated and declined. The total turnover of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 3197.8 billion yuan, an increase of 488 billion yuan compared with the previous day. The afternoon decline was due to the profit - taking of some stocks that had risen significantly. The previous rebound was supported by policy - side positive expectations and loose capital liquidity. Anti - involution and consumption - promotion policies optimize the supply - demand structure, promote the gentle recovery of price indexes, and drive a positive cycle. The capital market has loose liquidity, and the willingness to allocate funds to the stock market has increased. However, the valuation has reached a relatively high historical quantile level, and the short - term profit - taking willingness of funds has increased. In the short term, the stock index will mainly oscillate and consolidate [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall view of the financial futures stock index sector is that the short - term stock market sentiment is positive and optimistic, with the index showing a strong - oscillating trend, and the medium - term view is upward [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, the short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is upward, the intraday view is strongly oscillating, and the reference view is upward. The core logic is that the positive policy expectations provide strong support [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is strongly oscillating, the medium - term view is upward, and the reference view is upward. Yesterday, each stock index oscillated and consolidated within a narrow range. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2709.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 467.1 billion yuan from the previous day. Some stocks have achieved large increases, leading to an increase in the willingness of profit - taking funds to stop profits, so the index has a need for technical adjustment, and there is a characteristic of capital rotation in previously rising sectors. The current stock market sentiment is still optimistic. Policy - side positive expectations provide strong support, and continuous capital inflows drive valuation repair. Anti - involution and consumption - promotion policies optimize the supply - demand structure, promote a moderate recovery of the price index, and drive a positive cycle. Due to the downward trend of market interest rates and loose liquidity, incremental funds from insurance, social security, margin trading, and private equity continue to flow into the stock market, driving the valuation repair market [5].

Core Viewpoint - The liquor sector is showing signs of stabilization and potential recovery, supported by government policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival [1] Industry Summary - The three major indices collectively rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching 3888 points, up 0.11% [1] - The liquor sector index closed at 2423.25 points, increasing by 0.58%, with strong performance from individual stocks such as JiuGuiJiu, which rose by 6.03% [1] - Major liquor companies are focusing on maintaining investor interests, with several announcing long-term and mid-term dividend plans [1] Company Summary - Kweichow Moutai closed at 1489.60 CNY per share, down 0.05% [1] - Wuliangye closed at 130.59 CNY per share, up 0.51% [1] - Shanxi Fenjiu closed at 207.02 CNY per share, up 0.65% [1] - Luzhou Laojiao closed at 140.11 CNY per share, up 0.81% [1] - Yanghe Brewery closed at 74.94 CNY per share, up 0.90% [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall reference view for financial futures in the stock index sector is "up". The short - term view is "sideways to bullish", and the medium - term view is "up". The core logic is that policy - side positive expectations provide strong support, and factors such as increased trading volume, positive policies, loose liquidity, and the Fed's dovish turn drive the stock index's valuation repair [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, the short - term view is "sideways", the medium - term view is "up", the intraday view is "sideways to bullish", and the reference view is "up". The core logic is that policy - side positive expectations provide strong support [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Core Logic**: Yesterday, all stock indices fluctuated upwards. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 3.177 trillion yuan, an increase of 598.1 billion yuan from the previous day. The stock market trading volume exceeded 3 trillion yuan, attracting funds into the stock market and driving the stock index's valuation repair. Positive policies optimize the supply - demand structure, promote price index recovery, and boost corporate profit repair expectations. Loose domestic liquidity and the Fed's dovish turn also contribute to the inflow of funds into the stock market, making the short - term risk preference positive and the stock index running sideways to bullish [5].

Core Viewpoint - The liquor sector is currently experiencing low valuations and sentiment, but the overall fundamentals are stabilizing as the Mid-Autumn Festival approaches, supported by government policies aimed at boosting domestic demand [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The liquor industry's fundamentals are stabilizing, with the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival expected to enhance sales [1] - Government focus on boosting domestic demand continues to rise, with consumption-promoting policies being implemented to support the sector [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Companies in the liquor sector are increasingly prioritizing investor interests, with several firms announcing long-term and mid-term dividend plans [1] - Given the current interest rate environment, the long-term investment value of liquor companies is considered high [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Leading liquor companies are focusing on long-term healthy development during this adjustment phase, with fundamentals showing signs of stabilization [1] - The combination of consumption-promoting policies and improving fundamentals indicates that the industry is gradually entering a phase of positive recovery, suggesting a strategic opportunity for bottom-fishing in strong fundamental leaders [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the social services industry, expecting it to perform better than the benchmark index in the next 6-12 months [2][52]. Core Insights - The social services sector saw a 0.30% increase in the two weeks from August 4 to August 15, 2025, ranking 30th among 31 industries in the Shenwan classification. This performance lagged behind the CSI 300 index by 3.34 percentage points [2][13]. - Recent consumption policies, including interest subsidies, are anticipated to boost consumer confidence and spending, particularly in the travel and related sectors [5][30]. - The retail sales growth rate slowed to 3.7% year-on-year in July, indicating a need for improved consumer confidence [5][30]. Summary by Sections Market Review & Industry Dynamics - The social services sector's performance was below the overall market, with the CSI 300 index rising 3.64% during the same period [2][13]. - The sector's subcategories showed mixed results, with hotel and restaurant services increasing by 2.70%, while education and tourism sectors declined by 1.23% and 1.28%, respectively [17][20]. - The overall price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the social services industry was 34.73, significantly higher than the CSI 300's 12.71, indicating a premium valuation [21]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong growth potential in the travel chain and related industries, such as Tongcheng Travel, Huangshan Tourism, and Lijiang Co., among others [5][45]. - It also highlights opportunities in the hotel sector, particularly brands like Junting Hotel and Jinjiang Hotel, which are expected to benefit from the recovery in business travel [5][45]. - The report emphasizes the potential for growth in the cross-border travel market, recommending attention to companies like China Duty Free and Wangfujing [5][45]. Industry News & Company Announcements - The opening of Guangzhou's first city duty-free store on August 26 is expected to enhance consumer shopping experiences and stimulate local consumption [30]. - Data from Qunar indicates a significant increase in hotel bookings from smaller cities, reflecting a shift in consumer behavior towards higher-quality travel experiences [31]. - The report notes that the civil aviation sector achieved record passenger transport volumes in July, indicating a robust recovery in travel demand [33].

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The short - term view of the stock index is mainly oscillating strongly, and the medium - term view is upward. The reference view is also upward. Policy - side favorable expectations strongly support the stock index, and factors such as trading volume, capital inflow, and the development of the technology AI industry all contribute to the positive trend of the stock index [1][5] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Content 1. Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, the short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is upward, the intraday view is oscillating strongly, and the overall view is upward, with favorable policy expectations as the core support [1] 2. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is oscillating strongly, and the medium - term view is upward. The reference view is upward. Yesterday, each stock index showed an oscillating upward trend. The trading volume of the three major stock markets in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing was 2448.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 192.3 billion yuan from the previous day. The trading volume above 2 trillion yuan indicates positive investor sentiment. Policy - side favorable expectations strongly support the stock index, and policies from both supply and demand sides promote price index recovery and corporate profit repair. Funds from margin trading, institutional long - term funds, and residents' wealth - management funds continue to flow into the stock market, which is positive for the valuation repair of the stock index. At the micro - level, the rapid development of the technology AI industry and the increasing logic of domestic substitution are beneficial to the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes [5]