A股突然大爆发！ A股于午后突然飙涨，三大指数全线翻红，上证50涨超1%。大金融、航运物流板块持续发力，红塔证券午后涨停， 中国人保、中国太保涨超7%，新华保险、中国人寿、中国平安、宁波银行跟涨。 从结构上看，大金融是市场上涨的主力，航运物流则因经贸利好继续上涨。那么，大金融上涨究竟是何缘故？与公 募新规可能存在一定关联。首先，华西证券认为，公募基金在银行板块的配置比例大约3.49%，相较于沪深300指数 权重低配9.99个百分点，相较于中证800指数权重低配6.99个百分点；其次，国金证券认为，公募基金新规也有望驱 动资金流向券商板块。 突然飙升 今日午后，A股市场突然大幅飙升，沪指很快上涨超过20个点，三大指数集体翻红。不过，从结构上看，大盘股显然 要比小盘股强，而其中金融板块又明显是拉升主力。 目前，A股银行板块在公募配置中的结构性矛盾。按照最新的数据（2025年一季度），公募在银行板块的配置比例大 约3.49%，相较于沪深300指数权重低配9.99个百分点，相较于中证800指数权重低配6.99个百分点。 另外，《保险资金运用管理办法》修订，进一步放宽权益类资产风险因子，引发新一轮配置潮，险资对高股息高 ...

Market Overview - On May 13, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.17%, while the CSI 300 increased by 0.15%. The STAR Market 50 fell by 0.15%, the CSI 1000 decreased by 0.27%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.12%. The Hang Seng Index saw a decline of 1.87% [4][6] - The best-performing sectors on May 13 included banking (+1.52%), beauty and personal care (+1.18%), pharmaceuticals and biotechnology (+0.9%), transportation (+0.72%), and coal (+0.62%). The worst-performing sectors were defense and military (-3.07%), computers (-0.8%), machinery (-0.66%), electronics (-0.64%), and telecommunications (-0.61%) [4][6] - The total trading volume for the A-share market on May 13 was 13,260.2 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 2.261 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [4][6] Key Recommendations - The report highlights TCL Smart Home (002668) as a leading player in the refrigerator ODM export market, expected to benefit from the continued export boom in the refrigerator industry. The company is projected to experience rapid growth in 2024 due to the export wave, although growth may slow in 2025 due to factors such as completed overseas inventory replenishment and tariff pressures [7][8] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a year-on-year increase of 11.8% in China's refrigerator export volume and a 11.3% increase in export value. Specifically, exports to Europe rose by 7%, while exports to Latin America surged by 43% [8] - Revenue forecasts for TCL Smart Home from 2025 to 2027 are 20,404.24 million yuan, 22,343.55 million yuan, and 24,108.32 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profit estimates of 1,147.24 million yuan, 1,272.94 million yuan, and 1,389.93 million yuan. The projected growth rates for revenue are 11.13%, 9.50%, and 7.90%, while net profit growth rates are 12.56%, 10.96%, and 9.19% [8] Important Insights - The macroeconomic research indicates that the peak of China-US trade friction has been reached, with overall tariffs expected to stabilize around 30%. The additional tariffs imposed by the US on China are projected to decrease from 145% to 30% within the next 90 days [10][11] - The strategy research suggests that the public fund industry is likely to enter a more mature development phase, enhancing the attractiveness of equity assets and encouraging long-term capital allocation to A-shares. This shift is expected to improve both property income and consumer demand, thereby supporting a positive cycle in the domestic economy [12]

Group 1 - The A-share market showed positive performance in the first week of May, with major indices rising and small-cap indices and the ChiNext Index increasing by over 3% [1] - The market's upward trend was supported by the resumption of trade talks between China and the U.S., as well as a series of financial measures including interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions [1] - The average daily trading volume in the market stabilized and rebounded to 1.35 trillion yuan, indicating increased market activity [1] Group 2 - The recent high-level economic and trade talks between China and the U.S. in Geneva are expected to enhance investor risk appetite, with substantial progress reported by the Chinese delegation [2] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission issued a new action plan to promote the high-quality development of public funds, emphasizing stability in fund investment behavior and establishing clear performance benchmarks for each fund [2] - Recent export data significantly exceeded market expectations, indicating strong current performance despite weaker future expectations, with the outcome of trade negotiations likely influencing future market reactions [2] Group 3 - The MACD golden cross signal has formed, indicating a positive trend for certain stocks [3]

5 月，观望期：出口链修复，不宜过度乐观 ——主动量化周报 核心观点 关税缓和预期持续定价，风险偏好回升短期有较强的天花板效应。下一阶段，最大的 隐含风险在于美国通胀压力飙升，美联储降息预期落空对权益资产形成二次冲击。 ❑ 过去一周市场交易主线是什么？ 关税缓和，美降息预期下修。市场过去一周核心交易关税预期缓和下的风险偏好 回暖，对于降息等政策也提前有所定价。其中，出口链对应的机械、汽车、家电 持续走强，TMT 板块也有所修复。需要注意的是，降息落地后行情上行动力明 显减弱，短期无利好催化预期，且在逆全球化大框架下，风险偏好天花板较低。 此外，对美出口持续下行，义乌小商品出口价格指数大幅飙升，美国输入性通胀 逻辑持续演绎，5 月美国通胀数据超预期飙升仍将是接下来最大风险点。 ❑ 如何理解公募新规对行情的事件性冲击？ 3 万亿公募持仓再平衡不容小觑。公募新规后，由于监管对业绩比较基准较为看 重，未来主动权益基金可能逐步变为类指数增强产品，不会相对基准有过大偏 移。那么，目前公募相较市场超配较多的行业面临持续卖出压力，而低配较多的 行业则有资金回补需求。截至 5 月 8 日，目前市场低配较多的行业包括非银、银 行 ...